证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 刘红光 石化行业联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525060002 邮箱：liuhongguang@cindasc.com 刘奕麟 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524040001 邮箱：liuyilin@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 大炼化周报：局部地区春季订单开始释放，长丝盈利仍在改善 [Table_ReportDate0] 2025 年 11 月 23 日 本期内容提要： [Table_Author] ➢ 国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪： [Table_Summary] [Table_Summary] 截至 11 月 21 日当周，国内重点大 炼化项目价差为 2389.69 元/吨，环比变化+52.43 元/吨（+2.24%）； 国外重点大炼化项目价差为 1446.16 元/吨，环比变化+6.66 元/吨 （+0.4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in net profit for Q3 2025, with a loss of 11.84 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 122.71%, and a cumulative loss of 179 million yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year decline of 304.14% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The decline in performance is attributed to a larger decrease in product prices compared to raw material prices, high costs associated with trial production of new projects, and increased maintenance costs [1] - The company aims to enhance cost reduction and efficiency, consolidate its competitive advantages across the entire product and industry chain, and improve its risk resistance and performance levels [1] Group 2: Production Capacity and Projects - The company has established production capacities including 600,000 tons/year of propane dehydrogenation, 700,000 tons/year of phenol and acetone, and several other chemical products [2] - The company is focusing on building a new materials and new energy industry chain, with ongoing projects such as a 300,000 tons/year direct oxidation propylene oxide project and a 250,000 tons/year electrolyte solvent facility [3] Group 3: Strategic Focus - The company is committed to accelerating the progress of ongoing projects and developing high-end industry systems in new materials and new energy [3] - There are currently no ongoing merger and acquisition projects, but the company is actively seeking and evaluating potential targets for future opportunities [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Lu Xi Chemical (000830.SZ), clarified that its main products do not include lithium iron phosphate, focusing instead on a diverse range of chemical products [1] Product Overview - The company's primary products include: - Polyols - Caprolactam - Nylon 6 - Organosilicon - Formic acid - Methyl chloride - Methylamine - DMF (Dimethylformamide) - Polycarbonate [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company primarily produces a range of chemical products including polyols, caprolactam, nylon 6, organosilicon, formic acid, methylene chloride, methylamine, DMF, and polycarbonate, but does not engage in the production of VC (vinyl carbonate) [1] Product Overview - The main products of the company include: - Polyols - Caprolactam - Nylon 6 - Organosilicon - Formic acid - Methylene chloride - Methylamine - DMF - Polycarbonate - The company explicitly states that it does not involve VC (vinyl carbonate) in its product offerings [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Lu Xi Chemical (000830.SZ), confirmed that it does not produce Vinyl Carbonate (VC) and focuses on other chemical products [1] Product Offering - The main products of the company include polyols, caprolactam, nylon 6, organosilicon, formic acid, methylene chloride, methylamine, DMF, and polycarbonate [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful implementation of targeted monetary policy tools by the People's Bank of China in Chongqing, which has effectively supported the financing needs of various industries, particularly in green transformation and technological innovation. Group 1: Company Financing and Support - Yongwang Shipping's new energy cargo ship, costing 23 million yuan, is set to launch by the end of the year, showcasing the impact of Chongqing's financial system in supporting the real economy through re-lending policies [1][4] - The financing process for Yongwang Shipping faced challenges due to insufficient collateral and high traditional loan rates, which nearly halted their shipbuilding plans [2][4] - The People's Bank of Chongqing identified Yongwang Shipping's needs and facilitated a connection with Postal Savings Bank, leading to a tailored financing solution that included a "credit + collateral" model [3][4] Group 2: Policy Implementation and Impact - The Postal Savings Bank quickly developed a financing plan for Yongwang Shipping, resulting in a 12 million yuan loan approved in just 16 days at a favorable interest rate of 3.11%, significantly lower than the average rate for small enterprises in the region [4][11] - The re-lending policy has been designed to support key sectors such as technological innovation and green finance, with a comprehensive service system established to ensure effective policy implementation [5][11] - The Chongqing financial system has seen a 22.9% year-on-year increase in loans to technology companies, indicating a successful response to the financing challenges faced by these enterprises [11][12] Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The re-lending policies have led to a significant increase in green loans, exceeding 1 trillion yuan, which supports the dual carbon goals and promotes sustainable development [11][12] - Small and micro enterprises have benefited from targeted financial support, with an 8.01% year-on-year increase in inclusive small micro loans, contributing to economic stability and job security [12] - The policies aimed at stabilizing foreign trade and boosting consumption have also shown positive results, with an 18.2% year-on-year increase in financing for logistics, enhancing Chongqing's role as an inland open highland [12]

Core Viewpoint - The company held a performance briefing for Q3 2025, addressing investor concerns regarding financial performance and business development through an interactive online format [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company's net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 decreased year-on-year, despite an increase in production and sales volume, due to a decline in chemical product prices that outpaced the decrease in raw material costs [3]. - R&D expenses fell by 18.93% year-on-year, attributed to differences in project timelines and content, but the company emphasized its commitment to increasing R&D investment [4]. Accounts Receivable - Accounts receivable surged by 154.47% compared to the beginning of the year, raising concerns about bad debt risk; however, the company stated that the accounts receivable balance accounted for only 0.53% of revenue, indicating a low overall risk [3]. Export Business - The company has established a global export presence, with products like formic acid and dichloromethane ranking among the top in national export volumes; plans to strengthen the foreign trade team and expand overseas markets were discussed [3]. Cash Flow and Market Management - The company maintains a solid cash flow and a good asset-liability ratio, with an AAA credit rating, ensuring sufficient funds for operational needs; it follows a prudent sales strategy of cash before delivery [4]. - The company is focused on long-term stable development and actively engages with shareholders through various channels, including investor hotlines and performance briefings [4]. Supply Chain Concerns - The company noted that the impact of recent international trade tariff uncertainties on its supply chain is minimal, as the proportion of import-export business is relatively low, and efforts are being made to build a secure domestic supply chain [4].

Financial Performance - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased year-on-year due to a decline in product prices, which fell more than the decrease in raw material costs [2] - Accounts receivable increased by 154.47% compared to the beginning of the year, but the balance at the end of the reporting period accounted for only 0.53% of operating income, indicating effective risk management [2] Market Expansion - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, with export products like formic acid and dichloromethane ranking among the top in national export volumes [3] - The company plans to strengthen its foreign trade team and explore various channels for further market expansion [3] Research and Development - R&D expenses decreased by 18.93% year-on-year, attributed to different project phases and variations in research content [3] - The company remains committed to enhancing R&D investment despite the temporary reduction in expenses [3] Product Performance - Key products contributing to revenue in the first three quarters of 2025 include polyols, polycarbonate, nylon 6, and formic acid [3] - The production capacity for caprolactam was normal in Q3, with limited external sales based on market conditions [3] Financial Health - The company maintains a strong cash flow, adhering to a "payment before delivery" sales strategy, and has a solid asset-liability ratio [3] - The company's credit rating is AAA, reflecting its strong capital-raising capabilities [3] Value Management - The company emphasizes value management through active communication with shareholders via investor hotlines and performance briefings [3] - The focus is on long-term sustainable development and positive shareholder returns [3] Supply Chain Strategy - The company is deepening its "localization of supply chain" strategy to build a secure and reliable domestic supply chain [4] - The impact of international trade uncertainties, such as tariff changes, is minimized due to the relatively low proportion of import-export business in the overall operations [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with a slight narrowing of price differentials during the traditional off-season, and asset impairment is expected to ease in the future [6] - The company reported a total revenue of 21.918 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.023 billion yuan, down 35% year-on-year [6] - The company is progressing well with its ongoing projects, which supports significant long-term development potential [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 30.78 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.4% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be 1.499 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.1% year-on-year [5] - The company’s gross margin is expected to be 13.8% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 7.5% [5] - The company has adjusted its 2025 profit forecast downwards due to asset impairment, now expecting a net profit of 1.499 billion yuan compared to the previous estimate of 1.914 billion yuan [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" as the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark [150] Core Insights - The report highlights an improvement in demand for polyester filament yarn, leading to a continued reduction in inventory levels [2] - The Brent crude oil average price for the week ending October 31, 2025, was $65.18 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.96% [2][3] - Domestic and international refining project price differentials were tracked, with domestic projects at 2337.32 CNY/ton, down 1.97%, and international projects at 1303.72 CNY/ton, up 6.53% [2][3] Refining Sector Summary - The market is questioning the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia, while OPEC+ is inclined to slightly increase production in December [2] - The EIA inventory data provided positive support, alleviating concerns over trade tensions [2] - As of October 31, 2025, the prices for Brent and WTI crude oil were $65.07 and $60.98 per barrel, respectively [2][14] Chemical Sector Summary - Chemical prices generally declined, with significant narrowing of price differentials [2] - Polyolefins showed stable price movements, while EVA continued to weaken with noticeable price drops [2] - Benzene prices faced downward pressure due to high invisible inventory levels, leading to slight price fluctuations [2] Polyester & Nylon Sector Summary - Demand for polyester filament yarn has rebounded, with inventory levels decreasing significantly [2] - The government has introduced policies to optimize the supply structure, improving medium to long-term supply-demand expectations [2] - The average prices for polyester filament yarn were reported as follows: POY at 6439.29 CNY/ton, FDY at 6675.00 CNY/ton, and DTY at 7725.00 CNY/ton [2][87] Major Refining Companies Performance - The stock price changes for six major refining companies as of October 31, 2025, were as follows: Rongsheng Petrochemical (+2.62%), Hengli Petrochemical (+6.40%), Dongfang Shenghong (-1.18%), Hengyi Petrochemical (-4.15%), Tongkun Co. (-0.49%), and Xin Fengming (+1.53%) [2][137]