化工：持续强Call，建议上仓位，拥抱好机会 短期为什么上涨？ 后续有什么催化剂？ 短期，地缘冲突+后续旺季，油价上行，催化补库涨价；部分品种开年提价；美国特朗普强调资源品如磷的战略地 位 后续，旺季补库+行业自律+3月两会等。 往年，3-5月为旺季，补库带来涨价，目前产业链库存不高（之前跌价周期，谁敢囤货呢？ ）。 竞争 化工：持续强Call，建议上仓位，拥抱好机会 短期为什么上涨？ 后续有什么催化剂？ 短期，地缘冲突+后续旺季，油价上行，催化补库涨价；部分品种开年提价；美国特朗普强调资源品如磷的战略地 位 后续，旺季补库+行业自律+3月两会等。 往年，3-5月为旺季，补库带来涨价，目前产业链库存不高（之前跌价周期，谁敢囤货呢？ ）。 国家聚焦内需+双碳赋能，有一个落地，都是利好；短期都没有的话，那上行节奏会缓一些，趋势不变 中长期怎么看？ 预计景气长周期上行，驱动力不是全球需求高增长，和过去的周期有些不同了（参考有色），而是企业主动扩产 放缓+政策限制低效扩张，供需差逐步收窄，从过剩到平衡再到紧张。 稍微叠加些自律，景气提前到来，区别于之前仅是供需平衡表数据主导下的行情。 少产一点，可以赚更多的钱，还费那 ...

【炼油板块】周前期，特朗普计划同伊朗对话，重启核谈判，地缘风险降温，叠加哈萨克斯坦油田及美 国原油产量逐渐恢复，供应压力回升，国际油价大幅下跌。周中期，美国击落一架伊朗无人机，伊朗武 装快艇逼近悬挂美国国旗的油轮，有媒体报道称原定的美伊谈判取消，地缘风险溢价迅速回归，叠加美 印达成贸易协议，有望提振需求，国际油价宽幅反弹。周后期，美国与伊朗同意周五举行核谈判，缓解 了市场对伊朗供应中断的担忧，地缘风险溢价回落，油价有所回落。2026年2月6日布伦特、WTI原油价 格分别为68.05、63.55美元/桶，较2026年1月30日分别-2.64、-1.66美元/桶。成品油方面，本周国内外成 品油价格价差偏震荡运行。 【化工板块】本周成本端支撑有限，化工品价格偏震荡运行，部分产品短期供给影响，价格有所上行。 聚烯烃方面，本周聚烯烃价格价差小幅震荡。EVA价格偏稳运行，价差小幅改善。纯苯产品价格价差小 幅上涨。苯乙烯华东码头本周期内到货有限，产品价格价差继续上涨。丙烯腈场内装置降负与检修情况 延续，局部供应偏紧，产品价格价差继续上行。聚碳酸酯产品价格稳中有涨。MMA产品价格偏稳运 行，价差小幅改善。 【聚酯锦纶板块】聚 ...

【炼油板块】周前期，特朗普计划同伊朗对话，重启核谈判，地缘风险降温，叠加哈萨克斯坦油田及美 国原油产量逐渐恢复，供应压力回升，国际油价大幅下跌。周中期，美国击落一架伊朗无人机，伊朗武 装快艇逼近悬挂美国国旗的油轮，有媒体报道称原定的美伊谈判取消，地缘风险溢价迅速回归，叠加美 印达成贸易协议，有望提振需求，国际油价宽幅反弹。周后期，美国与伊朗同意周五举行核谈判，缓解 了市场对伊朗供应中断的担忧，地缘风险溢价回落，油价有所回落。2026年2月6日布伦特、WTI原油价 格分别为68.05、63.55美元/桶，较2026年1月30日分别-2.64、-1.66美元/桶。成品油方面，本周国内外成 品油价格价差偏震荡运行。 【化工板块】本周成本端支撑有限，化工品价格偏震荡运行，部分产品短期供给影响，价格有所上行。 聚烯烃方面，本周聚烯烃价格价差小幅震荡。EVA价格偏稳运行，价差小幅改善。纯苯产品价格价差小 幅上涨。苯乙烯华东码头本周期内到货有限，产品价格价差继续上涨。丙烯腈场内装置降负与检修情况 延续，局部供应偏紧，产品价格价差继续上行。聚碳酸酯产品价格稳中有涨。MMA产品价格偏稳运 行，价差小幅改善。 【聚酯&锦纶板块】 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the petrochemical industry, but it provides insights into price trends and market dynamics that could influence investment decisions. Core Insights - The report highlights a cooling in the aromatics market and a downward shift in the price focus of the polyester industry chain [1] - Brent crude oil's weekly average price was $67.33 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 0.60% [2] - Domestic and international refining project price differentials have shown slight increases, with domestic projects at ¥2515.90 per ton (+0.37%) and international projects at ¥1104.12 per ton (+0.63%) [3] Refining Sector Summary - The report discusses geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, including U.S.-Iran relations and supply recovery from Kazakhstan and the U.S. [2] - Brent and WTI crude prices as of February 6, 2026, were $68.05 and $63.55 per barrel, respectively, showing declines from the previous week [15] - Domestic refined oil prices showed slight fluctuations, with diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene averaging ¥6270.57, ¥7588.29, and ¥5140.28 per ton, respectively [15] Chemical Sector Summary - The chemical sector experienced limited support from cost factors, leading to fluctuating prices for various chemical products [2] - Polyethylene prices showed slight fluctuations, with LDPE, LLDPE, and HDPE averaging ¥9300.00, ¥6885.29, and ¥7600.00 per ton, respectively [54] - The report notes that the price of pure benzene increased slightly, with an average of ¥6150.00 per ton, reflecting a price differential of ¥2727.98 per ton [54] Polyester & Nylon Sector Summary - The polyester industry chain saw a price decline, with upstream costs weakening significantly [2] - The report indicates that the market for polyester filament yarn is experiencing a notable decrease in operating rates, leading to reduced demand [2] - Nylon filament prices have seen slight increases, but the price differential remains narrow [2] Market Performance of Major Refining Companies - The report provides stock performance data for six major refining companies, with notable weekly changes including Hengli Petrochemical (-5.29%) and Hengyi Petrochemical (+3.28%) [2] - Over the past month, stock performance varied significantly, with Rongsheng Petrochemical showing a +25.06% increase [2]

Market Overview - The three major indices in A-shares experienced slight declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.25% to 4065 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.33%, and the ChiNext down 0.73% [2] - The total market turnover was 2.16 trillion yuan, a decrease of 308 billion yuan from the previous trading day, with over 2700 stocks rising [2] Sector Performance - The oil and gas, chemical, and mining sectors showed strong performance, with multiple stocks such as Tongyuan Petroleum and Junyou Co. hitting the daily limit [4] - The chemical sector saw an overall increase of 1.45%, with core sub-industries like basic chemicals and diversified chemicals leading the gains [16] - The basic chemical sector had a net inflow of over 156.73 billion yuan, while the power equipment sector saw a net inflow exceeding 203.54 billion yuan [6] Fund Flow Analysis - Main funds shifted away from defense, media, and food and beverage sectors, moving towards power equipment and basic chemicals [5] - The chemical industry ETF saw significant inflows, with a total of 14.49 billion yuan in net inflows over the past 15 days, indicating strong market confidence in the sector [20] Stock Highlights - Hunan Gold and Data Port were among the top gainers, with net inflows of nearly 29 billion yuan and over 20 billion yuan, respectively [10] - Stocks like Hunan Rihua and Zhejiang Wenlian saw significant outflows, with declines of 7.63% and 9.79% [10] Market Sentiment - The market is currently in a "trial period," with a high number of first-day limit-up stocks but lacking a unified logic, indicating rapid rotation of funds [14] - The strong performance of the chemical sector is attributed to a combination of rising product prices, supply-side contraction, and demand from emerging sectors, suggesting a fundamental recovery rather than mere speculation [17]

证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 刘红光 石化行业联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500525060002 邮箱：liuhongguang@cindasc.com 刘奕麟 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524040001 邮箱：liuyilin@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 大炼化周报：成本端支撑强劲，化工品及涤纶 产业链价格拉涨 [Table_ReportDate0] 2026 年 2 月 1 日 本期内容提要： [Table_Author] [Table_Summary] ➢ 国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪：截至 1 月 30 日当周，国内重点大炼 化项目价差为 2537.18 元/吨，环比变化+18.62 元/吨（+0.74%）； 国外重点大炼化项目价差为 1098.52 元/吨，环比变化-42.24 元/吨（- 3.70%）。截至 1 月 30 日当周， ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a favorable outlook for its performance relative to the market [8]. Core Insights - The company is enhancing its industrial system through initiatives such as "casting chains, extending chains, supplementing chains, and strengthening chains," which aims to create a comprehensive industrial chain in chemical new materials and new energy [1]. - The demand for polycarbonate (PC) is expected to continue growing, driven by applications in various industries including home appliances, automotive, and high-tech fields such as rail transportation and aerospace [4]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic market with a complete industrial chain from pure benzene to polycarbonate, which enhances its competitive edge [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Latest Developments - The company is developing a new energy industrial chain that includes a 600,000 tons/year propane dehydrogenation and a 300,000 tons/year direct oxidation epoxy propane facility, integrating with existing production lines [1]. - The completion of projects such as a 250,000 tons/year electrolyte solvent and a 200,000 tons/year high-performance polypropylene is expected to enhance production capabilities [1]. Product Focus - The company specializes in chemical new materials and new energy, with products spanning phenolic ketone, new energy materials, specialty chemicals, and industrial gases [4]. - The polycarbonate industry chain is experiencing sustained demand growth, with the company producing differentiated products that meet or exceed international standards [4]. Market Trends - The consumption of bisphenol A (BPA) is projected to grow, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.59% over the next five years, driven by the expansion of downstream industries [4]. - The expected year-on-year growth for BPA consumption in 2024 is approximately 19.14%, indicating robust market dynamics [4].

Core Viewpoint - As of January 19, 14 listed companies in Shandong have disclosed their annual performance forecasts, with 8 companies expecting profits and 6 anticipating losses [1] Group 1: Profit Forecasts - Zhenghai Magnetic Materials is expected to have the highest net profit, projected between 310 million to 380 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 235.72% to 311.52% [2][3] - Wohua Pharmaceutical forecasts a net profit of 80 million to 115 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 119.76% to 215.90% [2][3] - Shandong Zhanggu is expected to achieve a net profit of 72 million to 80 million yuan, with a growth rate of 0.65% to 11.83% [3] - Dongcheng Environmental Protection anticipates a net profit of 55 million to 70 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 29.11% to 64.32% [3] - Jiujia Family forecasts a net profit of 51.5 million to 66.8 million yuan, with a significant increase of 226.86% to 323.97% [3] - Haineng Technology expects a net profit of 41 million to 44 million yuan, with growth of 213.65% to 236.61% [3] - KJ Intelligent anticipates a net profit of 29.5 million to 34 million yuan [3] - Delisi forecasts a net profit of 4 million to 6 million yuan, with a growth of 111.88% to 117.82% [4] Group 2: Loss Forecasts - Delisi expects a net profit of -61 million to -63 million yuan after excluding non-recurring gains and losses, a decline of 24.28% to 28.35% year-on-year [4] - Weiyuan Co. predicts the largest loss, with a net profit forecast of -950 million to -1.05 billion yuan, impacted by significant impairment provisions [5] - Shandong Fiberglass anticipates a loss of -1.474 million to -983 million yuan, but this represents an improvement of 8.419 million to 8.910 million yuan compared to the previous year [6]

Group 1 - The company, Weiyuan Co., Ltd., forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of between -9.5 billion to -10.5 billion yuan for the year 2025, indicating a significant loss compared to the previous year [1] - The expected loss is primarily due to the impairment provisions for long-term assets and inventory, which will impact the net profit by approximately -6.3 billion yuan [1] - The decline in average prices for key products such as phenol, acetone, isopropanol, bisphenol A, and polycarbonate in 2025 compared to 2024 is a major factor contributing to the decrease in gross profit margins [1] Group 2 - Increased costs associated with equipment maintenance and the trial production of new projects have also contributed to the financial outlook [1] - During the reporting period, maintenance was conducted on several facilities, including propane dehydrogenation, bisphenol A, polycarbonate, and propylene oxide, which has led to higher operational costs [1] - The segmented trial production of the electrolyte solvent facility has further exacerbated the cost issues faced by the company [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Weiyuan Co., Ltd. (600955), is expected to report a net loss attributable to shareholders of approximately 9.5 billion to 10.5 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025, indicating a significant decline compared to the previous year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The anticipated net loss includes an impact of about 6.3 billion yuan from impairment provisions on certain long-term assets and inventory [1] - The company is expected to experience a decline in gross profit margins for its main products, including phenol, acetone, isopropanol, bisphenol A, and polycarbonate, due to a significant decrease in average prices in 2025 compared to 2024 [1]