摩根大通电池分析师预计，在政策激励和电网级项目持续部署的支持下，2026年全球储能电池出货量将 同比增长30%，达到约770GWh。正是考虑到储能带来的额外14-16.5万吨碳酸锂当量(LCE)需求，摩根 大通才将其对锂市场的中期供需预测从过剩扭转为短缺。此外，中信建投（601066）表示，看好储能超 预期增长带来的锂电电池和材料端出货量和价格上修带来的机会。预计2026年国内、海外动力电池需求 分别同比+16%/20%，全球动力电池需求1559GWh，同比+17%。 锂业股早盘走强，截至发稿，天齐锂业（002466）(09696)涨4.76%，报53.9港元；赣锋锂业（002460） (01772)涨4.5%，报55.75港元。 消息面上，摩根大通在最新中国锂行业报告中，罕见地承认了此前的误判，并宣布将天齐锂业和赣锋锂 业的评级从"减持"上调至"中性"。此举标志着摩根大通对锂市场基本面的重大修正，摩根大通表示，核 心在于此前严重低估储能(ESS)市场的爆发性需求。摩根大通预计，全球锂市场在2025和2026年仍将面 临供应缺口。这一判断迫使该行将2026年锂价预测从人民币7万元/吨大幅上调至9万元/吨，涨幅 ...

摩根大通电池分析师预计，在政策激励和电网级项目持续部署的支持下，2026年全球储能电池出货量将 同比增长30%，达到约770GWh。正是考虑到储能带来的额外14-16.5万吨碳酸锂当量(LCE)需求，摩根 大通才将其对锂市场的中期供需预测从过剩扭转为短缺。此外，中信建投表示，看好储能超预期增长带 来的锂电电池和材料端出货量和价格上修带来的机会。预计2026年国内、海外动力电池需求分别同比 +16%/20%，全球动力电池需求1559GWh，同比+17%。 智通财经APP获悉，锂业股早盘走强，截至发稿，天齐锂业(09696)涨4.76%，报53.9港元；赣锋锂业 (01772)涨4.5%，报55.75港元。 消息面上，摩根大通在最新中国锂行业报告中，罕见地承认了此前的误判，并宣布将天齐锂业和赣锋锂 业的评级从"减持"上调至"中性"。此举标志着摩根大通对锂市场基本面的重大修正，摩根大通表示，核 心在于此前严重低估储能(ESS)市场的爆发性需求。摩根大通预计，全球锂市场在2025和2026年仍将面 临供应缺口。这一判断迫使该行将2026年锂价预测从人民币7万元/吨大幅上调至9万元/吨，涨幅近 30%。 ...

天齐锂业（002466）(002466.SZ)发布公告，2025年11月12日，公司全资子公司天齐智利收到智利圣地 亚哥上诉法院判决书，驳回了其诉讼请求，该判决非终审判决。SQM在未经其股东大会审批授权的情 况下与Codelco签署《合伙协议》，损害了公司全资子公司天齐智利作为SQM股东的投票权以及相关股 东权利。公司将在法律允许的范围内全面评估，不排除考虑在确保相关股东利益得到保障的前提下可能 采取进一步行动(包括但不限于提起上诉)。 ...

Core Insights - JPMorgan has reversed its bearish stance on the lithium industry, acknowledging a significant underestimation of the explosive demand in the energy storage (ESS) market [1][3] - The bank upgraded its ratings for Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium from "Underweight" to "Neutral," indicating a major correction in its outlook on the lithium market fundamentals [1][3] - JPMorgan expects a supply shortage in the global lithium market in 2025 and 2026, prompting a substantial increase in its lithium price forecast for 2026 from RMB 70,000 per ton to RMB 90,000 per ton, a nearly 30% increase [1][6] Energy Storage Demand - The surge in energy storage demand is identified as a key driver of stock prices, outweighing the negative impacts of supply factors such as the resumption of operations at CATL's mines [3][4] - Energy storage batteries accounted for over 25% of global battery production since June, with 40% of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery production attributed to this segment [4] - JPMorgan forecasts a 30% year-on-year increase in global energy storage battery shipments by 2026, reaching approximately 770 GWh, driven by policy incentives and ongoing deployment of grid-level projects [4] Supply Dynamics - The resumption of production at CATL's Jiangxi mine, with an annual capacity of approximately 45,000 to 50,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), is expected to provide some relief to the current market tightness, but it will not be sufficient to fill the significant supply gap [5][6] - Even with the inclusion of the Jiangxi mine's output, the market is anticipated to remain in a state of shortage in 2025 and 2026 [6] - JPMorgan's supply forecasts remain largely unchanged, with slight increases in projections for 2029/2030, while noting that expansions in Australia and Chile may not fully offset delays in Brazil due to financing constraints [6] Price Target Adjustments - JPMorgan has raised its price targets for Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium significantly, with Ganfeng's A-shares target increased from RMB 30 to RMB 65, and H-shares from HKD 22 to HKD 48 [6] - Tianqi Lithium's A-shares target has been adjusted from RMB 30 to RMB 54, and H-shares from HKD 28 to HKD 50, reflecting the revised outlook on lithium prices and market conditions [6]

Core Insights - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing a strong rebound due to surging demand for energy storage, supply uncertainties, and ongoing inventory depletion [1] - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has shown significant volatility, reaching a low of 59,900 yuan/ton in June 2023 and rebounding to 82,400 yuan/ton by November 11, 2023, marking a 37.59% increase [1] Price Trends - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has fluctuated dramatically over the past five years, peaking at 567,600 yuan/ton in November 2022 before a prolonged decline [1] - The current price stabilization follows a "roller coaster" trend, with supply-demand mismatches and inventory adjustments contributing to price volatility [1] Industry Performance - Major lithium companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium have reported a return to profitability in Q3 2023, with Ganfeng Lithium's net profit at 557 million yuan and Tianqi Lithium's at 95.485 million yuan [2] - The average breakeven price for lithium carbonate is considered to be around 70,000 yuan/ton, with current prices providing support for cost-advantaged companies [2] Future Outlook - Short-term demand from downstream battery manufacturers is expected to support lithium carbonate prices [2] - Long-term projections suggest prices may fluctuate between 70,000 yuan/ton and 100,000 yuan/ton, with the upper limit reflecting the need for new capital investment in Australian mines [2] Strategic Initiatives - Companies are actively seizing opportunities during this upward price cycle, with initiatives such as Qinghai Salt Lake Industry's new lithium salt project and Ganfeng Lithium's expansion in lithium resource acquisition and processing capacity [2][3] - Emphasis on technological innovation and efficient resource utilization is crucial for the industry's transformation and upgrading [3]

Group 1 - JPMorgan reduced its stake in Ganfeng Lithium (002460)(01772) by 1,092,220 shares at an average price of HKD 49.7455 per share, totaling approximately HKD 54.33 million [1] - After the reduction, JPMorgan's latest holding is approximately 35,502,300 shares, representing a holding percentage of 7.95% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yongxing Materials (002756) has completed the construction of its 10,000-ton green intelligent and efficient lithium extraction project, which is currently in the debugging phase [1] Company Summary - The company has successfully finished the construction of a significant lithium extraction project aimed at enhancing efficiency and sustainability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company has completed its 10,000-ton green intelligent and efficient lithium extraction technology upgrade project, which is currently in the debugging phase [1] Group 1 - An investor inquired about the completion status of the company's technology upgrade project, which was originally scheduled for completion in October [1] - The company confirmed that the technology upgrade project has been built and is now undergoing testing as of November 10 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Lithium stocks are experiencing a rise, driven by the increasing demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate, a key material for lithium-ion battery electrolytes, as the market enters a new growth cycle [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Ganfeng Lithium (002460) is up 6.64%, trading at 56.2 HKD [1] - Tianqi Lithium (002466) has increased by 4.57%, now at 54.95 HKD [1] - Zhengli New Energy (03677) rose by 4.02%, currently at 9.83 HKD [1] Group 2: Price Trends - As of November 7, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 121,500 CNY per ton, a 13.02% increase from 107,500 CNY per ton on October 31 [1] - Compared to September 30, when the price was 61,000 CNY per ton, the increase is 99.18% [1] Group 3: Market Insights - The demand for energy storage and power batteries is experiencing explosive growth, significantly increasing the procurement volume of electrolytes [1] - The rapid price increase of lithium hexafluorophosphate indicates that the supply-demand imbalance for some lithium battery materials may have eased, suggesting a potential price increase cycle ahead [1] - According to Open Source Securities, the market supply is expected to remain tight until 2026, indicating further upward price potential [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yahua Group's stock price has increased by 5.14% on November 10, reaching 21.87 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 763 million CNY and a turnover rate of 3.35%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 25.207 billion CNY. The stock has seen a cumulative increase of 4.15% over the past three days [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co., Ltd. is located in Chengdu, Sichuan Province, and was established on December 25, 2001, with its listing date on November 9, 2010. The company operates in two main business segments: lithium and civil explosives, with civil explosives further divided into production, blasting, and transportation services [1]. - The revenue composition of Yahua Group is as follows: lithium salt products account for 51.54%, civil explosive products and blasting services make up 42.81%, and transportation services contribute 5.66% [1]. Group 2: Fund Holdings - According to data from the top ten holdings of funds, one fund under Jiashi Fund has a significant position in Yahua Group. Jiashi New Selected Mixed Fund (002149) held 167,100 shares in the third quarter, representing 5.47% of the fund's net value, ranking as the tenth largest holding. The estimated floating profit today is approximately 178,800 CNY, with a floating profit of 132,000 CNY during the three-day increase [2]. - Jiashi New Selected Mixed Fund (002149) was established on April 8, 2016, with a latest scale of 45.4505 million CNY. Year-to-date returns are 60.85%, ranking 533 out of 8,219 in its category; the one-year return is 55.27%, ranking 489 out of 8,125; and the return since inception is 52.74% [2]. Group 3: Fund Manager Information - The fund manager of Jiashi New Selected Mixed Fund (002149) is Xiong Yuzhou. As of the report date, Xiong has a cumulative tenure of 4 years and 290 days, with total fund assets of 6.925 billion CNY. The best fund return during his tenure is 29.25%, while the worst return is -6.34% [3].