ITG国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 炭酸锂数据日报 国贸期货研究院 陈宇森 投资咨询号:Z0023460 从业资格号:F03123927 2026/01/08 贵金属与新能源研究中心 据来源: SMM,公升新闻整理 锂化合物 140000 平均价 SMM电池级碳酸锂 133500 6000 3000 SMM工业级碳酸锂 130000 5750 2500 收盘价 期货合约 涨跌幅 2000 碳酸锂2601 139960 5.52% 碳酸锂2602 139560 4. 95% 60000 碳酸锂2603 5.01% 140000 1000 碳酸锂2604 141360 5.13% 500 20000 碳酸锂2605 4.54% 142300 平均价 锂矿 锂辉石精矿(CIF中国) 1770 130 4-6 2 9 7 (Li20:5.5%-6%) 种类 利润估算 外购锂辉石精矿现金成本 132339 H 利 tt 江 -694 外购锂辉石精矿利润 外购锂云母精矿现金成本 123199 外购锂云母精矿利润 5161 行业 12月25日晚，湖南裕能，万润新能公告拟对部分产线就产检修。湖南裕能 ...

智通财经APP获悉，大和发布研报称，据报宁德时代(03750)的宜春枧下窝锂矿或会在农历新年前后复 产。该行认为，虽然市场已预期宁德时代明年的锂产能将会上升，但估计当前锂期货价格仅反映短期供 需平衡改善的因素。该行考虑到明年上半年锂供应增加及第一季需求或按季下跌，相信锂价在明年初将 难以进一步上涨。 ...

格隆汇12月29日｜大和发表研究报告指，据报宁德时代的宜春枧下窝锂矿或会在农历新年前后复产。该 行认为，虽然市场已预期宁德时代明年的锂产能将会上升，但估计当前锂期货价格仅反映短期供需平衡 改善的因素。该行考虑到明年上半年锂供应增加及第一季需求或按季下跌，相信锂价在明年初将难以进 一步上涨。 ...

惠誉预计，除非产能出现显著且持续的削减，否则2026年锂市场仍将处于供过于求状态。伍德麦肯兹 (Wood Mackenzie)预测，电池级锂化学品的过剩量将在2026年扩大至15.3万吨(以碳酸锂当量计)，并在 2027年进一步增至20.7万吨。在关键拐点上，由于电动车需求滞后及政策不确定性仍在持续，短期供需 平衡取决于供应削减情况。 年初至今，锂相关股票走势分化。加拿大锂矿开发商Standard Lithium(SLI.US)股价上涨近250%， Lithium Americas(LAC.US)和智利矿业化工(SQM.US)等较大生产商也取得了可观涨幅。而美国雅保 (ALB.US)等行业巨头则在锂价疲软和板块波动加剧的背景下表现落后。Global X锂与电池技术ETF年内 累计上涨56%，部分受到关税和贸易战相关消息的推动。 智通财经APP获悉，惠誉预计，尽管锂价已于11月下旬回升至每吨超11,500美元(2025年下半年上涨 38%)，但锂价疲软态势仍将持续至2026年。惠誉补充称，鉴于在一个分散且逐渐成熟的市场中，生产 受到经济、运营和战略等多重复杂因素交织影响，短期内前景仍不明朗。该机构表示，相较于历 ...

12月17日，广期所碳酸锂期货大幅上涨，主力合约盘中逼近11万元/吨。碳酸锂现货价格亦明显走高， Wind数据显示，国产电池级碳酸锂（99.5%）12月17日报价9.71万元/吨，较12月16日上涨1170元/吨， 较年内低点上涨62.18%。 华西证券认为，根据SMM消息，供应方面，锂盐厂整体开工率保持高位运行，其中锂辉石端与盐湖端 为供应主力。需求方面，需求端则展现出强劲动力，动力电池领域受益于新能源汽车商用与乘用市场的 同步快速增长，而储能市场延续供需两旺格局，供应持续偏紧，共同为碳酸锂消费提供有力支撑。展望 后市，下游电芯及正极材料企业在11月的排产计划持续向好，预计碳酸锂库存将继续呈现较大幅度去 化。综合来看，需求支撑下的去库预期将对价格底部形成稳固支撑，预计短期内碳酸锂价格将保持偏强 运行。 中信证券认为，2025年三季度海外锂矿产量环比持平，反映出在前三季度锂价低迷背景下，海外矿企增 产积极性减弱。尽管锂价在2025年三季度回暖，但海外矿企反馈缓慢。南美盐湖提锂企业2025年三季度 经营显著改善，且对2025年四季度展望保持乐观。预计在储能电池需求持续强劲的拉动下，锂产业链有 望延续去库态势，锂 ...

情绪降温 锂价中线承压 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018401 目录 第一章 需求分析 4 第二章 供应分析 8 第三章 供需平衡及库存 11 GALAXY FUTURES 1 碳酸锂后市行情展望 综合分析 行情展望及策略推荐： GALAXY FUTURES 2 产业层面：需求端，新能源乘用车销售走弱，储能依旧火爆，正极厂排产保持高位，部分出口需求略受影响。年末资 金回笼和财报考量，企业有去库需求。供应端，锂盐厂虽有新冶炼产能爬坡，但本月海外锂矿发运环比上月下滑，锂 矿价格高企，锂盐厂承接能力有限。枧下窝下周有一定复产预期，关注能否兑现。12月供需边际宽松，去库预计放 缓，上周需求已经有走弱迹象，关注本周库存数据。1月需求可能受动力下行而环比下降，供应国内外均有增量，中线 可能转为累库。 期货层面：近期缺乏新利多驱动，六氟磷酸锂股票大跌，锂价冲高至前高附近出现减仓下跌，反映资金离场。后市关 注9.1万附近支撑有效性。 • 1、单边：空单持有。 • 2、套利：暂时观望。 • 3、期权：卖出虚值看涨期权。 • (以上观点仅供参考，不作为入市依据) 碳酸锂一周价格 ...

| 碳酸锂日评20251208:偏弱震荡 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期(日) | 2025-12-05 | 2025-12-04 | 2025-11-28 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | | 近月合约 收盘价 | 90680.00 | 90680.00 | 94560.00 | 0.00 | | | 连一合约 收盘价 | 90760.00 | 92260.00 | 94640.00 | -1,500.00 | | | 连二合约 收盘价 | 91020.00 | 92480.00 | 94700.00 | -1,460.00 | 1 | | 连三合约 收盘价 | 91020.00 | 92480.00 | 94800.00 | -1,460.00 | | | 收盘价 砖酸锂期货 成交堂(手) | 92160.00 461507.00 | 93700.00 663458.00 | 96420.00 580962.00 | -1.540.00 -201,951.00 | | | 活跃合约 | | | | | | | (元/吨) ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report 2. Core View The current supply and demand are both strong, and the news of lithium mine复产 is repeated The weekly output of lithium carbonate is at a high level, the downstream观望 sentiment is still strong, the spot market trading is light, the demand growth is stagnant, and the exchange intervenes to cool down It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate weakly The trading strategy is to short at high prices [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Near - two - week Market Trends - **Futures Prices**: On December 2, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 94,960 yuan/ton, 94,860 yuan/ton, 95,140 yuan/ton, and 95,140 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 40 yuan/ton, - 260 yuan/ton, - 420 yuan/ton, and - 420 yuan/ton compared to the previous day The trading volume was 454,290 lots (- 81,185), and the open interest was 552,239 lots (+ 8,606) [2] - **Spot Prices**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 94,400 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium hydroxide, ternary precursors, and cathode materials also showed different degrees of change [2] - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads between different contracts and the basis between spot and futures prices also changed For example, the basis of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price minus the active contract closing price of lithium carbonate was - 2,160 yuan/ton, an increase of 430 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Industry News Kodal Minerals shipped 28,950 tons of lithium minerals from its Bougouni mine in southern Mali to a destination port in Hainan, China The company has produced a total of 45,000 tons of concentrates at the Bougouni concentrator, and the remaining 16,000 tons will be gradually exported in batches The expected unit price of the lithium concentrate will exceed 930 US dollars/dry ton [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate decreased in salt - lake production but increased in other raw material production The registered warehouse receipts were 8,992 tons (+ 770 tons), and the social inventory situation was also provided [2] - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased In December, the production scheduling of lithium carbonate and lithium decreased, and the production of power batteries rebounded last week In terms of terminal demand, the month - on - month growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down in October, the shipment volume weakened, and the production scheduling growth of energy - storage batteries stagnated in December [2] 3.4 Inventory Situation The SNN lithium carbonate inventory includes inventories of smelters, downstream, and others The total inventory was 118,420 tons, showing a certain change trend compared to previous periods [2]

Group 1 - Lithium stocks experienced a decline, with Tianqi Lithium (002466) down 3.49% at HKD 47.02 and Ganfeng Lithium (002460) down 2.43% at HKD 47.44 [1] - Since October, the price of lithium carbonate has been on the rise, surpassing HKD 80,000 and HKD 90,000, reaching a peak of HKD 102,500 per ton on November 19, marking a new high since June 2024 [1] - The total monthly production of lithium carbonate continued to increase in November, with a month-on-month growth of 3% and a year-on-year increase of 49%, indicating ongoing domestic supply expansion [1] Group 2 - Guoyuan Futures released a report indicating that while market expectations for December demand remain positive, the actual demand performance is falling short of expectations due to inventory levels and production schedules in the downstream sector [1] - The report suggests that with a significant amount of lithium salt inventory still held by downstream players, combined with high lithium prices and year-end inventory reduction needs, the support for lithium prices from the demand side may weaken, leading to a potential short-term downward trend in lithium prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - Lithium stocks have declined despite rising lithium carbonate prices, indicating potential volatility in the market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the report, Tianqi Lithium (09696) fell by 3.49% to HKD 47.02, while Ganfeng Lithium (01772) decreased by 2.43% to HKD 47.44 [1] - Lithium carbonate prices have surged since October, surpassing HKD 80,000 and HKD 90,000, reaching a peak of HKD 102,500 per ton on November 19, marking the highest level since June 2024 [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The total monthly production of lithium carbonate continued to rise in November, with a month-on-month increase of 3% and a year-on-year surge of 49%, indicating ongoing domestic supply expansion [1] - Guoyuan Futures reported that while market expectations for December demand remain positive, the actual demand performance is falling short, influenced by existing lithium salt inventory levels and high lithium prices [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - Due to the combined effects of inventory levels and year-end demand, it is anticipated that support for lithium prices may weaken, leading to a potential short-term downward trend in prices [1]