碳酸锂期货日报 行业 日期 2026 年 2 月 27 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 图1：碳酸锂现货价及价差 图2：碳酸锂期货持仓量成交量 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 碳酸锂期货冲高回落，总持仓小增 2957，市场继续交易津巴布韦锂矿禁令，日内 雅化集团、华友钴业以及中矿资源回应，一度缓解市场对该禁令的担忧，多头有 止盈离场。钢联晚盘现货电碳报价涨 10700 至 176000，澳矿涨 90，锂云母涨 155， 三元持平，铁锂涨 2000-2100，产业链涨价潮持续，本周碳酸锂社库较节前去库 2839 吨至 100093 吨。短期随着供应端炒作 ...

摩根士丹利：当前锂价已过度上涨，存在下行预期，碳酸锂价格将跌至1.5万美元/吨！ 核心结论 2025年年中以来，储能系统大规模落地推动锂需求与价格实质性转变，但在锂价翻倍、新能源汽车销量走弱且生 产商计划恢复供应的背景下，摩根士丹利认为当前锂价涨幅已过度，2026年下半年碳酸锂价格将跌至1.5万美元/ 吨。 核心要点 碳酸锂价格在多年供过于求、价格低迷后，于1月攀升 摩根士丹利：当前锂价已过度上涨，存在下行预期，碳酸锂价格将跌至1.5万美元/吨！ 核心结论 2025年年中以来，储能系统大规模落地推动锂需求与价格实质性转变，但在锂价翻倍、新能源汽车销量走弱且生 产商计划恢复供应的背景下，摩根士丹利认为当前锂价涨幅已过度，2026年下半年碳酸锂价格将跌至1.5万美元/ 吨。 核心要点 碳酸锂价格在多年供过于求、价格低迷后，于1月攀升至22350美元/吨的峰值（原文单位笔误修正），创2023 年以来新高。 此轮涨价有合理动因：2025年全球储能系统出货量同比增长76%，2026年预计还将实现约50%的增长。 锂价涨幅已超出合理范围：高锂价拉低项目内部收益率，新能源汽车行业增速放缓或拖累锂需求整体增长， 且矿企正考虑 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: "Carbonate Lithium: Capacity Compensation Policy Implementation and Spot Purchasing Surge May Stabilize Lithium Prices" - Report Date: February 1, 2026 - Analysts: Shao Wanyi, Liu Hongru 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - This week, the carbonate lithium futures prices dropped significantly, but the core logic of strong reality and expectations remains unchanged. The supply side is expected to contract marginally as some lithium salt plants plan for phased maintenance, while the demand side shows the characteristic of "not being in the off - season" and remains at a high level. After the price correction, the downstream replenishment willingness has significantly increased. The capacity price policy announced on Friday gives the market a clearer expectation, which may increase the economic viability of independent energy storage systems and potentially raise the project IRR. However, the potential negative feedback risk of demand needs continuous tracking. Currently, the absolute level of lithium prices has fallen to a relatively low level, and the downstream replenishment willingness will support the market. Attention should be paid to the changes in market funds next week [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - This week, the carbonate lithium futures prices declined sharply. The 2605 contract closed at 148,200 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 33,320 yuan/ton, and the 2607 contract closed at 148,860 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 33,780 yuan/ton. The spot price decreased by 10,500 yuan/ton to 160,500 yuan/ton. The SMM spot - futures basis (2605 contract) strengthened by 7,700 yuan/ton to - 1,780 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader premium/discount quotation was - 1,350 yuan/ton, strengthening by 40 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 2605 - 2607 contract spread was - 660 yuan/ton, strengthening by 460 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [2]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals Supply - Domestic lithium salt plants are gradually entering the seasonal maintenance phase, and the overseas mining cost has increased significantly. Overseas Simga Lithium announced on January 26 that it has resumed mining operations, and it is expected to produce output around March according to the mining progress. The domestic weekly carbonate lithium production was 21,569 tons, a decrease of 648 tons from the previous week [3]. Demand - Short - term demand is relatively strong, and the power terminal is waiting for recovery. The actual production reduction of cathode material plants is limited, and the demand for export rush continues to be released, so the production is expected to remain at a high level. In 2025, the newly added installed capacity of new energy storage projects was 62.24GW/183GWh, a year - on - year increase of 47%/80%. On Friday evening, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "Notice on Improving the Capacity Price Mechanism on the Power Generation Side". This week, the total winning bid scale of energy storage projects was 2.15GW/2.31GWh, a week - on - week decrease of 70.03% and a year - on - year decrease of 47.58%. According to information providers, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate batteries in February decreased by 9% month - on - month, and that of ternary batteries decreased by 15% month - on - month, with a smaller decline than the same period last year [3]. Inventory - This week, the carbonate lithium inventory continued to decline, with the industry inventory at 107,482 tons, a reduction of 1,414 tons from the previous week, and the inventory was transferred downstream. This week, 1,325 new futures warehouse receipts were registered, with a total of 30,211 lots [4]. 3.3 Market Strategy - Unilateral: High - level fluctuations are expected, and the price of the futures main contract is expected to range from 145,000 to 170,000 yuan/ton. - Inter - period: Referring to the downstream pre - holiday replenishment rhythm, take profit on long - short spreads at an appropriate time. - Hedging: Due to large price fluctuations, upstream and downstream enterprises are advised to hedge with options at an appropriate time [7].

1月23日，广期所碳酸锂主力合约一度涨超5%，最高触及17.8万元/吨。 摩根大通报告指出，上周该行在宜春举办了实地考察，参观了锂精炼厂/尾矿设施并与当地专家会面。 主要留意到：宁德时代旗下枧下窝锂矿区的重启时间表仍不确定，在其重启前，锂价将维持在高位；来 自锂云母一体化矿山的碳酸锂成本已下降至每吨6万元人民币；当前价格正在诱发更多供应，且回收量 将在2028年显著跃升。 中信建投证券研报指出，江西云母锂矿面临换证后续流程带来的停产压力，《固体废物综合治理行动计 划》落地后尾矿处理监管趋严，也放大供给端担忧。同时，部分锂盐厂春节期间存检修计划，当前供给 端几无弹性；虽然年度级别看供给增量较大，但无助于上半年紧张局面缓和。 需求端，由于出口退税带来抢出口预期，消费淡季不淡，累库困难，埋下二季度供给紧张基础。 消费淡季不淡，维持去库，锂基本面较为强势，二季度供给紧张担忧不断加剧。 摩根大通表示，对短期锂价更为乐观，但对中期走势则更趋谨慎。锂云母成本可降至如此之低，令该行 印象深刻，且预计未来成本将进一步下降。该行看到了短期锂业股的交易机会，即股价将追赶上碳酸锂 价格的涨势。在摩通看来，锂价预计将维持高位，因投资者 ...

需求端，由于出口退税带来抢出口预期，消费淡季不淡，累库困难，埋下二季度供给紧张基础。 1月23日，广期所碳酸锂主力合约一度涨超5%，最高触及17.8万元/吨。 摩根大通报告指出，上周该行在宜春举办了实地考察，参观了锂精炼厂/尾矿设施并与当地专家会面。 主要留意到：宁德时代（300750）旗下枧下窝锂矿区的重启时间表仍不确定，在其重启前，锂价将维持 在高位；来自锂云母一体化矿山的碳酸锂成本已下降至每吨6万元人民币；当前价格正在诱发更多供 应，且回收量将在2028年显著跃升。 中信建投（601066）证券研报指出，江西云母锂矿面临换证后续流程带来的停产压力，《固体废物综合 治理行动计划》落地后尾矿处理监管趋严，也放大供给端担忧。同时，部分锂盐厂春节期间存检修计 划，当前供给端几无弹性；虽然年度级别看供给增量较大，但无助于上半年紧张局面缓和。 摩根大通表示，对短期锂价更为乐观，但对中期走势则更趋谨慎。锂云母成本可降至如此之低，令该行 印象深刻，且预计未来成本将进一步下降。该行看到了短期锂业股的交易机会，即股价将追赶上碳酸锂 价格的涨势。在摩通看来，锂价预计将维持高位，因投资者推迟了对矿山重启的预期。 碳酸锂相关产业 ...

【zx金属碳酸锂点评】锂价日内振幅14%，把握股票回调后的建仓机会 1、碳酸锂期货价盘中下跌14%，主要由于监管对多头指导，基本面并无实质性利空，持续看多锂价，建议关注股 票回调后的买入机会，推荐#盐湖股份、#中矿资源、#赣锋锂业、#盛新锂能。 2、国内供应端，上游春季检修即将开始，周度产量会进一步下滑。 海外供应端，3月之前非洲澳洲无新增供应到港，巴西Sigma锂矿出售尾 【zx金属碳酸锂点评】锂价日内振幅14%，把握股票回调后的建仓机会 海外供应端，3月之前非洲澳洲无新增供应到港，巴西Sigma锂矿出售尾精粉的品质较低，国内加工能力不足，鲜 有贸易商愿意接货，对国内供应影响有限。 3、储能电芯需求维持旺盛，终端电站的建设并无阻碍，降息背景利好收益率提升。 动力电池需求受益于单车带电量的大幅提高(12月69度电)，终端车销量下滑不影响电池厂排产稳定，2月电池排产 数据或成为需求端新的利多。 4、近期产业链库存仍维持极低水平，且结构已开始变化。 上游厂累库代表惜售情绪加重，下游找贸易商询价接货量大幅增加，库存从贸易商转移至下游。 临近春节，下游主动补库的意愿更强。 近期每次下跌都会推动下游采购量大幅提升，已经 ...

Group 1 - Lithium mining stocks saw an increase in early trading, with Ganfeng Lithium rising by 6.45% to HKD 69.35 and Tianqi Lithium increasing by 3.42% to HKD 57.45 [1] - On January 23, the main contract for lithium carbonate on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surged over 5%, reaching a peak of CNY 178,000 per ton [1] - A report from JPMorgan highlighted a field visit in Yichun, noting that the restart timeline for the Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium's mining area remains uncertain, which is expected to keep lithium prices high [1] Group 2 - The cost of lithium carbonate from integrated spodumene mines has decreased to CNY 60,000 per ton, indicating a significant reduction in production costs [1] - Current prices are prompting an increase in supply, with recovery rates expected to rise significantly by 2028 [1] - JPMorgan expresses a more optimistic outlook for short-term lithium prices but adopts a cautious stance on mid-term trends, anticipating further cost reductions in lithium production [1]

Group 1 - Lithium mining stocks saw an increase in early trading, with Ganfeng Lithium rising by 6.45% to HKD 69.35 and Tianqi Lithium up by 3.42% to HKD 57.45 [1] - On January 23, the main contract for lithium carbonate on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surged over 5%, reaching a peak of RMB 178,000 per ton [1] - JPMorgan's report highlighted a field visit in Yichun, noting that the restart timeline for the Jiangxiawo lithium mine under CATL remains uncertain, which is expected to keep lithium prices high until then [1] Group 2 - The cost of lithium carbonate from integrated spodumene mines has decreased to RMB 60,000 per ton, indicating a significant reduction in production costs [1] - Current prices are prompting an increase in supply, with a notable rise in recovery rates expected by 2028 [1] - JPMorgan expressed a more optimistic outlook for short-term lithium prices but adopted a cautious stance on mid-term trends, emphasizing the impressive drop in lithium mica costs and the potential for further declines [1]

此行后，小摩对短期锂价更为乐观，但对中期走势则更趋谨慎。锂云母成本可降至如此之低，令该行印 象深刻，且预计未来成本将进一步下降。该行看到了短期锂业股的交易机会，即股价将追赶上碳酸锂价 格的涨势。在小摩看来，锂价预计将维持高位，因投资者推迟了对矿山重启的预期。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布研报称，上周该行在宜春举办了实地考察，参观了锂精炼厂/尾矿设 施并与当地专家会面。主要留意到：(1)宁德时代(03750)旗下枧下窝锂矿区的重启时间表仍不确定，在 其重启前，锂价将维持在高位。(2)来自锂云母一体化矿山的碳酸锂成本已下降至每吨6万元人民币。(3) 当前价格正在诱发更多供应，且回收量将在2028年显著跃升。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate futures 2605 dropped 3.53% to 161,940 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) all increased by 3,500 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 260 tons to 27,158 tons [2]. - Brazilian lithium mining giant Sigma Lithium announced the sale of 100,000 tons of high - purity lithium concentrate powder on January 13 and updated the latest situation of mining restart activities [2]. - On the supply side, the weekly output increased by 115 tons to 22,535 tons, but the lithium carbonate output in January 2026 is expected to decline 1.2% to 97,970 tons. On the demand side, the output of ternary materials, ternary power batteries, and iron - lithium power batteries in January 2026 is expected to decline, while the output of iron - lithium energy storage is expected to increase 0.99% to 63.15 GWh. The weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 337 tons to 109,942 tons [2]. - Considering factors such as export tax rebate adjustment, strong terminal expectations, anti - involution of battery factories, and upward revision of production schedules by cathode material manufacturers, even if the sharp rise in raw material prices may suppress terminal demand, it is difficult to disprove in the short term. Under the trading logic of low downstream inventory and long - term bullish on lithium prices, the overall price is likely to rise rather than fall, and short - term capital disturbances should be vigilant [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research View - **Price Changes**: The lithium carbonate futures 2605 fell 3.53% to 161,940 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose 3,500 yuan/ton [2]. - **News**: Brazilian lithium mining giant Sigma Lithium announced the sale of 100,000 tons of high - purity lithium concentrate powder and updated mining restart information [2]. - **Supply - Demand - Inventory**: Supply: weekly output increased by 115 tons, but January 2026 output is expected to decline 1.2%. Demand: the output of most products in January 2026 is expected to decline, except for iron - lithium energy storage. Inventory: weekly social inventory increased by 337 tons [2]. - **Price Outlook**: The price is likely to rise rather than fall, and short - term capital disturbances should be vigilant [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract decreased by 5,040 yuan/ton, while the continuous contract increased by 3,540 yuan/ton [4]. - **Lithium Ore**: The prices of lithium ore such as lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica increased to varying degrees [4]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salts**: The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 3,500 yuan/ton, while the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased by 500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Price Differences**: Some price differences remained unchanged, while some changed slightly [4]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The prices of most precursors and cathode materials increased [4]. - **Cells and Batteries**: The prices of some cells and batteries increased slightly [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and other ores from 2024 to 2026 [5][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts present the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, and other lithium products from 2024 to 2026 [11][13][17]. - **Price Differences**: Charts display the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, etc., from 2024 to 2026 [19]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, and other products from 2024 to 2026 [25][27][29]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts present the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, etc., from 2024 to 2026 [31][34]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from May 2025 to January 2026 [36][39]. - **Production Costs**: Charts display the production profit trends of different raw materials from 2024 to 2026 [40].