宏观深度报告 20250419 贸易摩擦如何影响我国就业？政策如何应 对？ [Table_Summary] ◼ 贸易摩擦或对我国就业市场造成扰动 ◼ 出口就业人数的两种定量测算 ◼ 对等关税对就业影响的估算 2025 年 04 月 19 日 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书：S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 占烁 执业证书：S0600524120005 zhansh@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《中国科技产业为全球资产注入稳定 性》 2025-04-14 《美债抛售潮的原因：去美元化、流 动性冲击与中期财政扩张》 2025-04-13 东吴证券研究所 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 每百万元增加值吸纳的就业人数。关税冲击主要是制造业出口，制造业 有更多的资本和技术投入作为劳动要素的代替，因此每百万元增加值吸 纳的就业只有 4.7 人。相比之下，建筑业和部分服务业吸纳就业的能力 更强。每百万元增加值吸纳的就业人数较多的行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "supply creates demand" effect observed in the film industry, particularly highlighted by the success of "Nezha 2" during the 2025 Spring Festival, which led to a significant recovery in the overall box office market [1][9][29]. Group 1: Film Market Performance - The 2025 Spring Festival box office reached 95.14 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%, with a notable rise of 30.2 percentage points compared to the 2024 National Day holiday [1][9]. - "Nezha 2" led the box office with 43.5 billion, while "Detective Chinatown 1900" and "Fengshen Part 2" also performed well, grossing 20.4 billion and 8.9 billion respectively [1][9][29]. - The average rating of films during the Spring Festival was 7.8, up 0.4 points from the previous year, correlating with a 2.5% increase in average ticket prices [1][10]. Group 2: Impact of Consumption Coupons - Consumption coupons contributed indirectly to the Spring Festival film consumption, with a total investment of at least 600 million in viewing subsidies, theoretically expected to drive an additional 1.2 to 3 billion in box office revenue [2][11]. - Actual data showed that during the subsidy period, the total box office exceeded 243 billion, with the direct impact of subsidies accounting for only 5% to 12% of the market size, indicating that the coupon policy was not the main driver of demand [2][12][30]. Group 3: Opportunities in Other Industries - The service industry is still facing supply constraints, with the actual supply not fully recovering to meet potential demand, as evidenced by the service industry's value added being only 88.2% of historical trends in 2024 [3][14]. - Employment in the service sector grew by 3.1% year-on-year, but this recovery is lagging behind the 5.2% growth in service industry value added, indicating a significant gap between supply and demand [3][14]. - The recovery in the travel and leisure service sectors is showing signs of structural improvement, with the accommodation and catering industry's profit margins significantly rebounding by 15.6 percentage points by the end of 2022 [4][32]. Group 4: Long-term Consumption Promotion - There is substantial room for improvement in service consumption in China compared to other major economies, with service industry value added as a percentage of GDP at only 40.1% in China, compared to 50.6% in Japan and 46.4% in South Korea [6][19]. - Policies are increasingly emphasizing the optimization of service supply, particularly in the cultural and tourism sectors, to enhance overall service consumption [6][21]. - The demographic shift suggests that demand for self-care, travel, and healthcare services will continue to grow, particularly as the elderly population increases and the 30-50 age group, which is a key consumer demographic for travel, is projected to grow by 0.8 percentage points over the next five years [7][34].