Group 1: Current Market Trends - The retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan in May, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, marking the highest level since 2024[10] - The growth rate of total retail sales from January to May 2025 was 5%, significantly higher than the 3.5% growth in 2024[10] - The "old-for-new" policy has led to impressive growth in specific sectors, with retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment increasing by 53% year-on-year in May[12] Group 2: Quality Consumption Era - China has entered a quality consumption era, where consumers prioritize product quality over price, even if it requires more time and effort to find high-quality products[18] - The demand for quality consumption is closely linked to the transparency of product quality information and the reduction of trial-and-error consumption[18] - Successful products like "Nezha" and "Labubu" illustrate the importance of quality supply in creating demand, highlighting that good supply can effectively stimulate consumption[24] Group 3: Strategies for Boosting Consumption - To stimulate consumption, it is essential to stabilize income expectations and improve employment quality, focusing on policies that support the real estate and stock markets[34] - The government should encourage the creation of high-quality supply to drive demand, aligning with the emphasis on "leading new demand with high-quality supply"[33] - Key areas for policy focus include stabilizing the real estate market to counter negative wealth effects, enhancing stock market stability to improve residents' financial income, and ensuring employment quality to stabilize income expectations[34][37][39]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the resurgence of consumerism, particularly among Generation Z, as seen in the popularity of brands like LABUBU, indicating a shift from previous discussions of "consumption downgrade" to a renewed focus on consumption as a primary economic driver [1][2] - The article discusses the historical context of consumption, noting that in pre-modern times, the concept of consumption was limited, with individuals primarily using items until they were exhausted, reflecting a lack of individual consumer identity [2][4] - It highlights the evolution of consumerism, where the relationship between consumers and producers has become more detached, leading to exploitation and a focus on marketing and branding over practical utility [3][8] Group 2 - The article outlines the transformative impact of various revolutions—personal, material, urban, and national—on the emergence of modern consumerism, which has reshaped societal structures and individual identities [4][5] - It points out that while consumerism has led to societal tensions and conflicts, it has also contributed to the development of a resilient society by fostering individual expression and collective action [7][12] - The article argues that the shift from an investment-oriented economy to a consumption-oriented one represents not just an economic change but a broader social revolution, necessitating a supportive environment for diverse expressions of individuality and interests [12]

Core Viewpoint - The rise of new consumption, driven by technology and policy, is reshaping consumer behavior and market dynamics, particularly among the Z generation [1][2]. Group 1: Drivers of New Consumption - The dual drivers of policy and technology, including the "trade-in" policy and the application of AI and big data, are accelerating the integration of online and offline channels [2]. - The demand for consumption upgrades, particularly from the Z generation, is pushing the growth of emotional value sectors such as trendy toys and pet economy [2]. - The potential of lower-tier markets is being unlocked, with high-cost performance domestic brands optimizing supply chains to penetrate these areas, leading to significant growth for certain industries and companies [2]. Group 2: Differences from Traditional Consumption - New consumption is characterized by a focus on "emotional value" and "supply creating demand," catering to the self-satisfaction and social needs of the Z generation, contrasting with traditional consumption that relies on material needs and demographic dividends [3]. - In terms of valuation methods, new consumption's high growth potential supports higher valuations, while traditional consumption is anchored by stable cash flows and dividend yields [4]. - The risk characteristics differ, with new consumption being highly volatile and sensitive to market emotions, whereas traditional consumption is more defensive but shows weak demand growth [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the significant impact of policy incentives on consumer spending, with a total sales volume exceeding 1.1 trillion yuan in the used-for-new consumption market by the end of May, and Shenzhen alone contributing over 30 billion yuan in home appliances and automotive consumption [1] - The "618 shopping festival" initiated by JD.com saw remarkable sales growth, with over 500 home appliance brands achieving a year-on-year increase of more than 10 times in the first hour, and leading domestic brands experiencing growth rates exceeding 500% [1] - The current policy effectively addresses the "consumer upgrade" dilemma in China, where over 6 billion units of consumer goods exist, by alleviating residents' cost concerns and boosting enterprise confidence through sales [1] Group 2 - Despite the evident effectiveness of policy stimulation, there are concerns that concentrated consumption of durable goods may limit future growth, particularly in sectors like fuel vehicles and home decoration materials [2] - The data from JD.com's "618" indicates a significant shift towards green consumption, with traditional categories like tire maintenance and automotive products growing over 30 times, while sales of electric vehicle charging equipment surged tenfold [2] - The sustainability of consumer enthusiasm post-policy incentives relies on the transition from "policy infusion" to "product innovation," emphasizing the need for companies to leverage the subsidy window to create lasting appeal through technological advancements [2]

3 . 1 - 3 . 7 周度研究成果 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 热点思考 深度研究 1、欧洲经济的"困局"与"破局"——从俄乌之"变"谈起 高频跟踪 电话会议 1、"周见"系列会议第21期 《俄乌变局》 2、"洞见"系列会议第43期 《税收增速为何跑输GDP？》 3、 申万宏源全行业联合 《2025年两会政府工作报告解读》 4、"洞见"系列会议第44期 《"俄乌冲突"的宏观传导图谱》 目录 1、解码地方"财政账" ——"大国财政"系列之二 2、《哪吒2》之后，下一个消费风口何在？ 3、目标导向、内需为先——2025年全国"两会"精神学习 《哪吒2》之后，下一个消费风口何在？ 热点思考 2025.3.4 《哪吒2》热映背后的供给效应？电影质量提升，产生显著的"供给创造需求"效应。 2 目标导向、内需为先——2025年全国"两会"精神学习 热点思考 2025.3.5 2025年3月5日，国务院总理李强代表国务院，向十四届全国人大三次会议作政府工作报告。 | 图表 1: 2025 年政府工作报告主要经济目标设定 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "supply creates demand" effect observed in the film industry, particularly highlighted by the success of "Nezha 2" during the 2025 Spring Festival, which led to a significant recovery in the overall box office market [1][9][29]. Group 1: Film Market Performance - The 2025 Spring Festival box office reached 95.14 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%, with a notable rise of 30.2 percentage points compared to the 2024 National Day holiday [1][9]. - "Nezha 2" led the box office with 43.5 billion, while "Detective Chinatown 1900" and "Fengshen Part 2" also performed well, grossing 20.4 billion and 8.9 billion respectively [1][9][29]. - The average rating of films during the Spring Festival was 7.8, up 0.4 points from the previous year, correlating with a 2.5% increase in average ticket prices [1][10]. Group 2: Impact of Consumption Coupons - Consumption coupons contributed indirectly to the Spring Festival film consumption, with a total investment of at least 600 million in viewing subsidies, theoretically expected to drive an additional 1.2 to 3 billion in box office revenue [2][11]. - Actual data showed that during the subsidy period, the total box office exceeded 243 billion, with the direct impact of subsidies accounting for only 5% to 12% of the market size, indicating that the coupon policy was not the main driver of demand [2][12][30]. Group 3: Opportunities in Other Industries - The service industry is still facing supply constraints, with the actual supply not fully recovering to meet potential demand, as evidenced by the service industry's value added being only 88.2% of historical trends in 2024 [3][14]. - Employment in the service sector grew by 3.1% year-on-year, but this recovery is lagging behind the 5.2% growth in service industry value added, indicating a significant gap between supply and demand [3][14]. - The recovery in the travel and leisure service sectors is showing signs of structural improvement, with the accommodation and catering industry's profit margins significantly rebounding by 15.6 percentage points by the end of 2022 [4][32]. Group 4: Long-term Consumption Promotion - There is substantial room for improvement in service consumption in China compared to other major economies, with service industry value added as a percentage of GDP at only 40.1% in China, compared to 50.6% in Japan and 46.4% in South Korea [6][19]. - Policies are increasingly emphasizing the optimization of service supply, particularly in the cultural and tourism sectors, to enhance overall service consumption [6][21]. - The demographic shift suggests that demand for self-care, travel, and healthcare services will continue to grow, particularly as the elderly population increases and the 30-50 age group, which is a key consumer demographic for travel, is projected to grow by 0.8 percentage points over the next five years [7][34].