A股这边，惊心动魄的一周结束了，虽然绝大多数人还是亏钱的，但我估计大家的心情应该还是可以的。 以Wind全A为例，周一跌了9%之后，周二到周五连涨4天，累计涨幅5.5%左右，虽然本周还是亏了4个多点，但人的情绪，主要是被环境 的边际变化影响的，换句话说，同样是亏4个多点，如果本周是每天阴跌1个点，跌5天，恐怕大家会是另外一个心情了。 就好像你家儿子，如果第一次考试考50分，后面每次考试都能多考10分，那后面的日子，全家可能每天都和过节一样；反之，如果一开始 考80分，结果后面每次掉10分，那家里可能就不太和谐了。 今天市场里表现最猛的板块，是芯片和半导体方向 ，ETF的涨幅榜， 都被它们霸占了，A股的半导体指数今天涨超5%，港股半导体指数涨 了接近6.5%，更为重要的是，两个指数，都已经完全收复了周一的大跌，A股的半导体相较于上周五的收盘价，还涨了0.5%，港股半导体 更是涨了4%以上。 换句话说，在资本的定价里，贸易冲突和关税战，利好国内的半导体和芯片产业。 其中，主要的原因，在于今天 半导体行业协会发布的， 《关于半导体产品"原产地"认定规则的紧急通知》 ，看到紧急通知这四个字，就 知道这是临时的关税战反 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global recession expectation has cooled down due to the postponement of tariffs, but the geopolitical situation will become more complex in the medium and long term. The A - share market is expected to show a structural market with a stable index and style differentiation, and the bond market is trading on the expectation of a reserve - requirement ratio cut [2][3]. - Precious metals prices may rebound in the short term due to the volatile tariff policies, and attention should be paid to the pressure near the previous high of gold prices and the US March CPI data [4][5]. - Copper prices are expected to stabilize and rise in the short term as the global trade war enters a period of easing negotiations and the risk appetite of the global market has significantly recovered [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are expected to stabilize as the market risk sentiment is released, and the overall supply - demand situation is still good, but attention should be paid to further tariff trends [8][9][10]. - Alumina prices are expected to slow down their decline and show a weak oscillation as the short - term market balance expectation has slightly improved, but there is still a large amount of new production capacity to be put into operation in the second quarter [11]. - Zinc prices will have a phased rebound opportunity as the short - term market risk is quickly released with the loosening of Trump's tariff policy [12]. - Lead prices are expected to follow the London lead to stabilize and repair as the tariff risk eases [13]. - Tin prices are expected to rebound from the low level as the global trade situation concern eases, and the tight pattern of tin mines in the second quarter is difficult to change [14][15]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation as the peak - season demand is weak and the high inventory drags down the spot market [16]. - Lithium prices are expected to oscillate as the cost - support logic still exists although the fundamental outlook is bearish [17][18]. - Nickel prices are expected to be strong as the cost - increase logic of the increase in Indonesia's mineral royalty is about to be realized [18]. - Crude oil prices are mainly affected by the tariff policy, and the market pessimistic expectation has slightly eased, but due to the volatile tariff policy, it is recommended to wait and see [19]. - Steel prices are expected to stabilize in the short term as the capital - market sentiment eases and the fundamentals change little, maintaining a weak supply - demand pattern [20]. - Iron ore prices are expected to stabilize in the short term as the capital - market sentiment recovers and the supply - demand relationship changes little [21]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate as the panic sentiment eases and the market may return to the fundamentals [22][23]. - Palm oil prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize as the oil price rises significantly from the low level and the market sentiment warms up [24]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Views 3.1.1 Macro - Overseas: Trump announced a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on most economies, but still imposed a 10% global tariff during the negotiation period, and raised the tariff on China to 125%. The "global recession expectation" has cooled down significantly, and risk assets have risen sharply [2]. - Domestic: China has raised the tariff on the US, and the policy of "counter - measures against foreign countries and stabilizing growth and expectations at home" has become the main line. The A - share market has rebounded with the support of liquidity, and the bond market is trading on the expectation of a reserve - requirement ratio cut [2][3]. 3.1.2 Precious Metals - International precious - metal futures prices rose significantly on Wednesday. The tariff policy is volatile, attracting safe - haven funds and supporting precious - metal prices. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in June is 72%. Precious - metal prices may rebound in the short term, and attention should be paid to the US March CPI data [4][5]. 3.1.3 Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract opened low and moved high on Wednesday, and the London copper rebounded. The global trade war has entered a period of easing negotiations, and the market risk preference has increased. The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged in May is 76%. Codelco is optimistic about the long - term copper demand, and copper prices are expected to stabilize and rise in the short term [6][7]. 3.1.4 Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed down on Wednesday. The US has suspended tariffs on some countries, and the EU has passed counter - measures. The market risk sentiment is released, and the supply - demand situation is still good. Aluminum prices are expected to stabilize, but attention should be paid to tariff trends [8][9][10]. 3.1.5 Alumina - The alumina futures main contract fell on Tuesday. Some alumina plants have reduced production, and the short - term market balance expectation has slightly improved. However, there is still a large amount of new production capacity to be put into operation in the second quarter, and alumina prices are expected to slow down their decline and show a weak oscillation [11]. 3.1.6 Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract oscillated weakly during the day and rose at night on Wednesday. The market risk is quickly released, and the spot supply is tight. Zinc prices will have a phased rebound opportunity [12]. 3.1.7 Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract continued to fall during the day and rebounded at night on Wednesday. The fundamentals are characterized by increasing supply and weak demand, but due to the easing of tariff risks, lead prices are expected to stabilize and repair [13]. 3.1.8 Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract oscillated downward during the day and rose at night on Wednesday. The Bisie tin mine is gradually resuming production, but the global tin - mine tight pattern in the second quarter is difficult to change. Tin prices are expected to rebound from the low level [14][15]. 3.1.9 Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon main contract oscillated at a low level on Wednesday. The high inventory drags down the market, and the demand in the peak season is weak. Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation [16]. 3.1.10 Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium prices oscillated on Wednesday. Although the fundamentals are bearish, the cost - support logic still exists, and lithium prices are expected to oscillate [17][18]. 3.1.11 Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated on Wednesday. The tariff policy is volatile, and Indonesia is about to raise the mineral royalty. Nickel prices are expected to be strong [18]. 3.1.12 Crude Oil - The Shanghai crude - oil main contract oscillated on Wednesday and rose sharply at night. The oil price is mainly affected by the tariff policy, and the market pessimistic expectation has slightly eased, but it is recommended to wait and see due to the volatile tariff policy [19]. 3.1.13 Steel and Iron Ore - Steel and iron - ore futures first fell and then rose on Wednesday. The capital - market sentiment eases, and the fundamentals of steel and iron ore change little. Steel and iron - ore prices are expected to stabilize in the short term [20][21]. 3.1.14 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - Bean and rapeseed meal prices oscillated on Wednesday. The US has suspended some tariff policies, and the panic sentiment has eased. The double - meal prices may return to the fundamentals and oscillate [22][23]. 3.1.15 Palm Oil - Palm oil prices fell on Wednesday. The US has suspended some tariff policies, the market sentiment warms up, and the oil price rises significantly from the low level. Palm oil prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize [24]. 3.2 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - Provides the closing price, change, change percentage, total trading volume, total open interest, and price unit of various metal futures contracts on Wednesday, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, precious metals, steel, and iron ore [25]. 3.3 Industry Data Perspective - Compares the data of various metals on April 9th and April 8th, including futures prices, warehouse receipts, inventories, spot quotes, spot premiums and discounts, refined - scrap spreads, and other indicators [26][28][29].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in gold prices, highlighting the potential for gold to reach $3,200, influenced by various factors including U.S.-China relations, interest rate movements, and the economic environment in the U.S. [4][28] Summary by Sections CFTC Data and Market Sentiment - The article emphasizes the importance of the CFTC data released weekly, which reflects market sentiment towards precious metals and short/medium-term price judgments [3][4]. Gold Price Trends - As of March 31, international gold prices reached a new high of $3,100, with a potential to stabilize around $3,200 before further movements depending on market focus [4][28]. - The article notes that gold prices have risen significantly since last November, when they dropped to around $2,590 [4][28]. Fund Positioning - As of March 25, net long positions in COMEX gold decreased by 3.7% to 599 tons, marking the 76th consecutive week of net long positions [5][9]. - The article indicates that the net long positions in silver also fell, while platinum saw a significant increase in short positions [5][9]. Market Dynamics - The article highlights that despite rising gold prices, there is currently a lack of excessive greed in the market, which could indicate further upward potential [4][27]. - It also mentions that the performance of gold and other risk assets may be affected by fluctuations in the U.S. stock market [4][28]. Economic Indicators - The article discusses the probability of the U.S. Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in June, which could further influence gold prices [26][28]. - It suggests that the market is currently pricing in multiple rate cuts, which could lead to increased volatility in the dollar and subsequently benefit gold prices [26][28]. Future Outlook - The article predicts that geopolitical risks and economic conditions will play a crucial role in shaping the future of gold prices, with a particular focus on the potential for a significant downturn in copper prices due to changing demand dynamics [19][29]. - It concludes that the next 12 to 24 months will be critical for the U.S. economy, especially if inflation pressures resurface alongside interest rate cuts [32][28].

Industry Overview - Agricultural technology (AgriTech) and food innovation companies are focused on enhancing farming efficiency, sustainability, and food production, presenting a compelling investment opportunity driven by the need for sustainable food production and improved food security [1] - Innovations in AgriTech include precision farming, smart irrigation, drone technology, and agricultural biotechnology, which aim to boost crop yields, minimize resource usage, and lower food production costs and environmental impact [2] - Food innovation efforts, such as plant-based proteins and lab-grown meat, are designed to meet the growing demand for sustainable and ethical food alternatives [2] Investment Opportunities - Investing in AgriTech and food innovation stocks is recommended to stabilize portfolios in 2025, with Beyond Meat Inc. (BYND) and Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN) identified as favorable options with a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [3][6] - Both companies have shown strong revenue and earnings growth potential for 2025, with positive earnings estimate revisions in the last 30 days [6] Company Profiles Beyond Meat Inc. - Beyond Meat specializes in plant-based meat products, offering a range of items that replicate beef, pork, and poultry meats, sold through various retail and foodservice channels [8][9] - The company has an expected revenue growth rate of 0.7% and an earnings growth rate of 31.6% for the current year, with a 4.8% improvement in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings over the last 30 days [10] Tyson Foods Inc. - Tyson Foods has a diversified multi-protein portfolio, allowing it to navigate industry cycles and capitalize on rising consumer demand for high-protein diets, supported by strong brand loyalty [11] - The Chicken segment of TSN is experiencing robust growth, aided by operational efficiencies and rising foodservice volumes, while the company leverages digital advancements and AI-driven solutions for supply-chain efficiency [12] - TSN has an expected revenue growth rate of 0.9% and an earnings growth rate of 23.6% for the current year, with a 0.8% improvement in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings over the last 30 days, and a current dividend yield of 3.26% [14]

HOUSTON — BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said Monday that President Donald Trump's deportation policy will have a severe impact on the agriculture and construction sectors, which could lead to elevated inflation in the near term."I think that over the next six to nine months, we're going to see a little more elevated inflation," Fink said the CERAWeek by S&P Global energy conference. "I do believe deportations and the speed at which it is happening is going to have severe impacts on the agricultural sector and th ...