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The Fed’s once oh-so-certain cuts for the rest of 2025 are already fading into oblivion
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-26 10:18
Economic Data Impact - Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data is complicating Wall Street's hopes for rapid Fed rate cuts, with weekly jobless claims falling and Q2 GDP growing at an annual rate of 3.8% [1][4] - The resilience of the economy, despite inflation hovering near 3%, has pushed Treasury yields higher and weighed on tech stocks, indicating a narrow path for sustained rate cuts [1][4] Market Reactions - Investors had anticipated multiple base interest rate cuts from the Fed, believing it would stimulate economic activity, but the strong economic performance may delay these cuts [2][3] - The recent strong U.S. data has led to a reduction in expectations for rapid Fed rate cuts, negatively impacting rate-sensitive sectors like technology [4] Labor Market and Inflation - Despite a softening labor market, with less than 30,000 jobs added, elevated inflation near 3% gives the Fed reason to remain cautious about further rate cuts [5] - Analysts had hoped for continued Fed cuts due to labor market conditions, but persistent inflation complicates this outlook [5] Analyst Insights - Kevin Khang from Vanguard noted that any hints of a dovish Fed pivot are met with enthusiasm, but the realities of the yield curve and broader rate environment must be considered [6]
债市日报:9月26日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-26 08:58
Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed slight recovery on September 26, with government bond futures rising across the board, while the interbank bond yield exhibited some divergence, indicating mixed sentiment among institutions as the quarter-end approaches [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract up 0.20% at 114.190, the 10-year main contract up 0.13% at 107.680, the 5-year main contract up 0.06% at 105.540, and the 2-year main contract up 0.04% at 102.342 [2]. - The interbank yield on long-term government bonds weakened in the afternoon, while government bonds remained stable. The 30-year government bond yield was flat at 2.2245%, and the 10-year government bond yield decreased by 0.2 basis points to 1.8005% [2]. Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a net injection of 411.5 billion yuan on September 26, with significant reverse repos conducted, including 1,658 billion yuan for 7-day terms at a rate of 1.40% and 6,000 billion yuan for 14-day terms [5]. - Shibor rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate down 15.1 basis points to 1.321% and the 7-day rate down 8.3 basis points to 1.501% [5]. Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities noted that the "old-for-new" policy effectively boosted retail sales in the first half of the year, particularly in durable goods and communication equipment, indicating a shift towards smarter and greener consumption [6]. - Shenwan Macro pointed out that once long-term rates fall below 2%, markets often enter a period of volatility, suggesting that the current market may be undergoing a rebalancing phase in asset allocation strategies [7].
Shanghai Digital Yuan Center Propels China’s Ambition in Global Payment Systems – Here’s How
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-26 06:34
Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has launched a new digital yuan operations center in Shanghai to promote the internationalization of the yuan [1][7] - The initiative is part of a broader plan to create a multi-polar monetary system, emphasizing the importance of the yuan's global role [2][7] Group 1: Digital Yuan Operations Center - The Shanghai center will focus on fintech developments and support innovation in digital finance, with three major platforms: cross-border payment, blockchain services, and a crypto platform [3][4] - The center aims to explore the use of the digital yuan (e-CNY) in international transactions, facilitating on-chain payments and near-instant crypto transfers [4][5] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The establishment of the digital yuan hub is seen as a step to enhance China's influence in the global financial system and improve the cross-border payment system [5][6] - The move is also a response to growing tensions with the US, aiming to reduce reliance on a US dollar-dominated financial system [7]
Indian 10-year bond yield at 6.50%; debt auction cutoffs key
The Economic Times· 2025-09-26 05:59
The 10-year benchmark yield was at 6.5038% as of 10:00 a.m. IST, after closing at 6.4972% on Thursday. New Delhi is set to sell 15-and-40-year bonds worth 160 billion rupees ($1.8 billion) each later in the day, the final auction of the first half of the fiscal year. "Today's auction papers are such that the cutoffs could make or break the market, and hence they are important before the second half schedule" trader at a state-run bank said. The government's October-March debt supply calendar is due after m ...
China Inaugurates Digital Yuan Operation Centre to Push CBDC Integration: Report
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-26 05:46
Core Viewpoint - China is advancing its digital currency initiative by establishing an international operations center for the digital yuan (e-CNY) in Shanghai, aiming to enhance its global presence in digital payments [1][2]. Group 1: Digital Currency Initiative - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has launched an international operations center for the digital yuan, marking a significant step in its global digital currency strategy [1]. - PBOC Deputy Governor Lu Lei described the initiative as a response to the "historical inevitability" of payment innovations, focusing on creating a more efficient and inclusive global cross-border payment system [2]. - The initiative aims to improve settlement efficiency and lay the groundwork for broader integration of the e-CNY [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Context - The push for China's central bank digital currency (CBDC) comes amid a regulatory pause on tokenization efforts, as the securities regulator has advised brokerages to halt their real-world asset (RWA) tokenization activities in Hong Kong [3].
9月东京CPI意外持平,支撑日本央行谨慎立场
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-26 02:21
Core Insights - Tokyo's consumer inflation rate remained unexpectedly stable due to temporary subsidy policies, supporting the Bank of Japan's cautious stance on interest rate hikes while not deviating from the overall upward path for rate increases [1][3] Inflation Data - The Tokyo core consumer price index (CPI), excluding fresh food, rose by 2.5% year-on-year in September, lower than the Bloomberg survey median expectation of 2.8% [1][3] - The "super core" inflation index, which excludes energy and fresh food, also increased by 2.5% year-on-year, below the economists' expectation of 2.9% [3][4] Government Policies - Government subsidies aimed at alleviating rising living costs significantly impacted inflation data, leading to fluctuations in inflation trends [3] - The Tokyo city government expanded free childcare services, contributing a 0.3 percentage point drag on the inflation index, while a reduction in water fees further suppressed inflation growth [3][4] Energy Prices - Energy prices provided some support to the inflation index, with a year-on-year increase for the first time in three months, influenced by the base effect from last year's utility subsidy policies [3][4] Food Prices - Processed food prices rose by 6.9% year-on-year in September, down from 7.4% in August, indicating ongoing food inflation pressure [4] - Rice prices surged by 46.8% year-on-year in September, although this was a decrease from the 67.9% increase in August, raising concerns about future price stability [4] Political Context - The resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba was influenced by public dissatisfaction with rising living costs, which played a key role in electoral defeats [5] - The upcoming Liberal Democratic Party presidential election on October 4 will see candidates promising measures to alleviate household cost pressures [5] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Bank of Japan's decision to maintain a 0.5% policy rate faced dissent, with some members advocating for a rate hike, leading to increased market speculation about a potential rate increase in the upcoming meeting [5] - The current sticky inflation environment suggests that the Bank of Japan may have conditions to raise rates, depending on the assessment of U.S. tariff policy impacts [5] Real Estate Market - The Tokyo real estate market is experiencing significant price increases, with the average price of family-type second-hand apartments in central Tokyo rising by 38% year-on-year to 107 million yen (approximately 719,700 USD) [5]
Trump's Plans To Scrap Quarterly Earnings 'A Bad Idea,' Says Larry Summers: 'Accountability' Has Been Key To Success Of American Markets
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-25 23:31
Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below. Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers has criticized the idea of eliminating quarterly earnings reports, a policy proposal floated by President Donald Trump in a Truth Social post last week. US Markets Built On ‘Accountability And Transparency’ On Wednesday, in a post on X, Summers called the plan to scrap quarterly earnings releases “a bad idea whose time should never come.” He said that America's ...
S&P 500 Posts Longest Losing Streak in A Month | Closing Bell
Youtube· 2025-09-25 22:25
Market Overview - The market is experiencing caution, with the S&P 500 on track for its longest losing streak in a month after a period of record highs [2][3] - The Dow is down approximately 0.4%, and the S&P 500 is closing around 6605, down 33 points or 0.5% [6][7] - The Nasdaq composite and NASDAQ 100 are down by similar amounts, while the Russell 2000 is down about 1% [7] Company Performance - Intel shares rose nearly 9% today, making it the top gainer in both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100, following an upgrade to neutral from sell by Seaport Global [13][14] - Lithium Americas also saw significant gains, up about 23% after a 96% gain the previous day [14] - CarMax was the worst performer in the S&P 500, down 20% due to weaker-than-expected results and challenges in the used car market [17][18] - Tesla shares fell 4.4%, with European sales down 22% last month, while overall European car sales rose 4.7% [19][20] Corporate Actions - Starbucks is closing about 1% of its stores in the U.S. and Canada, cutting 900 jobs as part of a turnaround plan, but the market reaction has been negative with the stock down [25][26] - The company has 360,000 employees globally, making the job cuts a small percentage of its workforce [28] Economic Indicators - Stronger economic data is impacting market sentiment, raising questions about the Federal Reserve's ability to continue cutting rates [23]
Why Did XRP Sink Today?
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-25 21:40
Key Points XRP is sliding alongside a broader crypto sell-off. The Federal Reserve's 0.25% rate cut last week was smaller than many investors had hoped. 10 stocks we like better than XRP › XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) fell on Thursday, down 6.8% as of 4:59 p.m. ET, as measured from 4 p.m. on Wednesday. The move comes as the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) and Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) both lost 0.5% on the day. The banking-focused crypto is falling along with much of the market as investors await Friday' ...
S&P 500 Gains & Losses Today: CarMax Stock Skids, Oracle Retreats; Intel Pushes Higher
Investopedia· 2025-09-25 21:40
分组1 - CarMax shares fell 20% after reporting lower-than-expected sales and profits for its fiscal second quarter, with CEO Bill Nash citing challenges such as demand pull-forward and inventory depreciation [3] - Intel shares rose 8.9% following reports of investment talks with Apple, marking a significant performance in the S&P 500 [4] - Jabil reported better-than-expected revenue and earnings per share, but its shares dropped 6.7% due to pressures in its automotive and renewable energy segments [5] - Oracle's stock received a "sell" rating from Rothschild Redburn, which believes the market is overly optimistic about Oracle's contracted cloud revenue, leading to a 5.6% drop in shares [6] - HSBC successfully conducted a bond trading trial using IBM's quantum computers, achieving a 34% improvement in trade execution predictions, while IBM shares increased by 5.2% [7] - Lithium Americas shares surged 23% after nearly doubling previously, driven by reports of potential government investment, as the company holds a majority stake in the Thacker Pass lithium mine [8] 分组2 - Major U.S. equities indexes declined for the third consecutive day, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down 0.5% and the Dow down 0.4% ahead of an upcoming inflation report [2] - The U.S. economy showed stronger growth than previously thought in Q2, which may influence market sentiment [9] - Starbucks is closing shops and cutting costs as part of its ongoing turnaround efforts [9]