Portfolio Performance - Private Equity and Infrastructure portfolios are performing resiliently despite a subdued macroeconomic environment[6] - Royal Sanders continues to perform well, and the broader PE portfolio shows improving momentum[6] - MAIT's sale was announced earlier this month, with total gross proceeds of approximately £143 million, a roughly 30% increase over its valuation on March 31, 2025, resulting in a 2.7x MM and approximately 27% IRR[6] - Action's year-to-date sales (as of September 21, 2025) reached €10.9 billion, which is 18% higher than the same period last year[6] - Action's year-to-date like-for-like (LFL) sales growth is 6.5% (compared to 6.8% at the end of August 2025), driven by transaction growth in all countries[6] - Action's operating EBITDA for the 12 months leading up to the end of P9 2025 is expected to be approximately €2,295 million, a 21% increase from €1,894 million at the end of P9 2024[6] Action Expansion - Action added 207 net new stores year-to-date and is on track to deliver or exceed 370 net new stores in 2025[6] - Action opened 7 stores in Switzerland year-to-date, and its first store in Romania opened on September 24, 2025[6] Investment and Acquisition - On September 24, 2025, 3i entered into an agreement with GIC to purchase a limited partnership interest representing 2.2% of Action equity in exchange for the issue of 19,916,225 new ordinary shares in 3i Group plc[6] - 3i invested approximately €1.7 billion in consumer businesses over the last 2 years[11] - 3i invested £124 million in MPM[18] - 3i invested approximately €145 million in WaterWipes[49] - 3i invested approximately £53 million in MAIT[95] - 3i invested £99 million in OMS[111] MPM Transaction - The total gross proceeds from the MPM transaction are approximately £400 million, with a money multiple of 3.2x and an IRR of 29%[44]

Economic Overview - The overall economic operation of Huizhou is stable, with a focus on high-quality development and effective implementation of macro policies [2] Industrial Production - From January to August, the industrial added value of above-scale industries increased by 8.8% year-on-year, with mining decreasing by 9.8%, manufacturing growing by 9.1%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply increasing by 5.4% [2] - The electronics industry grew by 12.6%, the petrochemical energy and new materials industry increased by 5.2%, and the life and health manufacturing industry rose by 9.0% [2] - Advanced manufacturing added value grew by 9.0%, accounting for 61.6% of the total industrial added value, while high-tech manufacturing added value increased by 12.3%, making up 42.7% of the total [2] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment decreased by 22.9% year-on-year, with significant growth in cultural, sports, and entertainment investment at 79.4%, and scientific research and technical services investment at 45.0% [2] - Investment in water conservancy, environment, and public facilities management fell by 22.7%, while manufacturing investment decreased by 12.3% [2] - New commercial housing sales area declined by 35.1% [2] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 138.064 billion yuan, growing by 4.2% [3] - Urban retail sales increased by 4.5%, while rural retail sales grew by 2.9% [3] - Online retail sales surged by 36.9%, indicating a strong trend in e-commerce [3] Foreign Trade - The total foreign trade import and export volume reached 276.599 billion yuan, growing by 6.7%, with exports at 159.945 billion yuan (up 9.3%) and imports at 116.654 billion yuan (up 3.2%) [3] Fiscal and Financial Stability - General public budget revenue was 30.299 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6% [4] - The balance of financial institution deposits reached 965.799 billion yuan, growing by 1.1%, while loans increased by 3.5% to 1,129.521 billion yuan [4] Consumer Price Index - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, with the price index for consumer goods down by 0.6% [4][5] - Prices for food, tobacco, and alcohol fell by 0.3%, while clothing prices rose by 6.7% [5]

Core Insights - The logistics sector has seen significant engagement from investors, particularly in the ASEAN and US markets, highlighting its growth potential [1] - The popularity of insurance companies in the Philippines since 2014 indicates a shift in investment strategies among local investors [1] - The diversification of investment portfolios across various industries and market capitalizations is becoming a common practice among investors [1] Investment Trends - There is a notable trend of investors moving from traditional savings in banks and properties to stock market investments for better returns [1] - The entry into the US market by investors from the Philippines reflects a growing interest in international investment opportunities [1] - The use of platforms like Seeking Alpha for analysis and comparison of market trends is becoming increasingly popular among investors [1] Sector Focus - Key sectors of interest include banking, telecommunications, logistics, and hospitality, indicating a broad investment strategy [1] - The logistics and shipping industries are particularly highlighted as areas of investment, suggesting their importance in the current economic landscape [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current market shows signs of excessive speculation, particularly in stocks that lack profitability, prompting a reassessment of investment strategies [2][24][33] Group 1: Market Valuation and Speculative Stocks - Fed Chairman Jay Powell indicated that equity prices are "fairly highly valued," raising concerns about the sustainability of speculative stocks [3][24] - The S&P 500 is trading at approximately 25 times this year's earnings and 22 times next year's earnings, which is on the higher side but not excessively expensive given the expected earnings growth [5][6] - A significant number of speculative stocks have rallied dramatically, with only a small fraction being profitable; a recent screen identified 55 stocks that rose at least 50% in September, with only six being profitable [17][24] Group 2: Specific Stock Examples - Energy Fuels, a uranium company, has seen its stock rise over 215% this year despite ongoing losses, raising questions about its valuation [11][12] - Ollo, another nuclear stock, has surged 518% for the year, driven by positive headlines, but it lacks revenue, indicating speculative behavior [13][14] - AS Space Mobile, a satellite broadband company, is up 158% this year but continues to lose money, highlighting the risks associated with speculative investments [15][16] Group 3: Investment Strategy Adjustments - The company will adopt a more cautious approach towards speculative stocks, emphasizing the need for wise speculation and risk management [9][24] - The recommendation of holding one speculative stock per portfolio remains, but there will be a stronger emphasis on evaluating the risks associated with such investments [24][25] - The focus will shift towards identifying non-speculative stocks with solid fundamentals as potential investment opportunities [34]

LVMH is ramping up its expansion in South Korea, with the luxury conglomerate looking to diversify its global presence as geopolitical and economic uncertainties hurt the consumer spending outlook in the US and China https://t.co/0skJ9TgyNS ...

Best Buy has been making job cuts across the company, including reductions to its Geek Squad team https://t.co/ClcR8ckG9M ...

Market Overview - The market is currently experiencing less volatility and more complacency, which could change as the year progresses [4][5] - Historically, September is one of the worst months for stock performance, but this year has bucked that trend due to better-than-expected economic data and potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [4][5][22] Market Sentiment and Valuation - The S&P 500 is trading at approximately 25 times current year consensus EPS, indicating a stretched market multiple that necessitates earnings growth to justify valuations [9][10] - There is a focus on 2026 earnings, with the S&P 500 trading at about 22.5 times projected earnings for that year, which is considered not overly expensive [12][13] Interest Rates and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates multiple times, which could lead to a more favorable environment for both fixed income investments and the stock market [14][15] - Long-term interest rates have decreased, which may act as a catalyst for the housing market and refinancing opportunities for homeowners [18][19] Sector Analysis - The small-cap Russell 2000 has shown significant recovery, up nearly 9% this year, indicating a broadening market rally beyond just large-cap stocks [23][24][43] - Banks and private equity firms are expected to perform well due to favorable monetary policy and strong investment banking activity [50][52] Consumer Spending Trends - American Express is favored over Visa due to its strong travel business and membership benefits, which are expected to drive growth [62][67] - Amazon is preferred over Walmart for its diversified offerings and potential for monetizing its media assets [59][61] Investment Opportunities - There is optimism for housing stocks if interest rates continue to decline, which could stimulate demand [19][20] - Private equity firms are expected to benefit from lower interest rates and robust investment banking activity, positioning them for strong performance [52][55] Market Dynamics - The market is characterized by a "wall of worry," where investors are hesitant to enter due to fear of missing out, which could support continued upward momentum [34][35] - The breadth of the market rally is improving, with more sectors participating, which is a positive sign for overall market health [43][44]

Core Insights - Costco Wholesale Corporation is expected to report fourth-quarter revenue of $86.11 billion, an increase from $79.7 billion in the same quarter last year [1] - Analysts predict earnings per share of $5.80, up from $5.15 in the previous year’s fourth quarter [2] - Costco has consistently beaten revenue estimates, achieving this in two consecutive quarters and five out of the last ten quarters [2] Earnings Estimates - Fourth-quarter revenue is projected at $86.11 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of approximately 15.3% [1] - Expected earnings per share of $5.80 indicates a year-over-year growth of 12.6% [2] Consumer Behavior and Store Traffic - Costco stores in Northern New Jersey showed significant traffic, outperforming competitors like Amazon Fresh and Walmart [3] - The grocery section was noted as the busiest area, with consumers seeking value amidst anticipated price increases due to tariffs [4] - Overall visits to Costco increased by 3.2% year-over-year in April, May, and June, with a further increase of 5.5% in August [6] Membership and Revenue Streams - Membership fees generated $1.24 billion in the third quarter, up from $1.12 billion the previous year, highlighting the importance of this high-margin revenue [9] - The recent membership fee increase in September 2024 is expected to contribute positively to profitability [9] Operational Improvements - Early openings for executive members have been implemented to improve store operations and customer experience [5] - This strategy has reportedly reduced congestion and improved the flow of visitors, enhancing the overall shopping experience [6] Comparable Sales and Growth - Comparable sales rose by 5.7% year-over-year in the third quarter, with growth observed across the US, Canada, and other international markets [8] - Continued growth in store traffic and new store openings will be critical indicators for future performance [7]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the Leverage Shares 2X Long COST Daily ETF (NASDAQ:COTG) aims to provide investors with double daily exposure to Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ:COST), capitalizing on the company's strong performance in the consumer spending sector [1][3]. Group 1: ETF Overview - The new ETF was listed on September 18 and is designed to offer 200% of Costco's daily performance, both gains and losses [1][3]. - The fund features an industry-low expense ratio of 0.75% for single-stock leveraged ETFs, targeting active traders interested in short-term fluctuations [4]. Group 2: Market Positioning - By including Costco, the ETF diversifies beyond technology giants, reflecting a strategic move towards consumer-oriented sectors [2][5]. - Costco's business model, characterized by low-cost and high-volume sales, positions it as a reliable indicator of consumer demand, especially in an inflationary environment [3][5]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - The ETF is expected to attract investors looking to leverage Costco's loyal customer base and its potential for growth in the bulk-buying market [2][6]. - Themes ETFs' Chief Revenue Officer highlighted Costco's fantastic growth and customer loyalty as key reasons for the ETF's introduction [4].

Core Insights - Seasonal hiring in the retail industry is expected to decline significantly, with projections indicating the addition of under 500,000 positions in Q4 2025, marking the smallest seasonal gain in 16 years and an 8% decrease from the previous year [2][4] Group 1: Hiring Trends - Retailers are facing multiple challenges including tariffs, inflation, and a shift towards automation, which is leading to fewer seasonal hires [3][4] - Major retailers like Target have not disclosed their seasonal hiring plans yet, contrasting with last year when they announced specific hiring numbers [5][6] - Companies such as Spirit Halloween and Bath & Body Works have released their hiring plans, with Spirit planning to hire 50,000 and Bath & Body Works planning to hire 32,000 workers [7][8] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The overall job market has shown signs of slowing, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by only 22,000 in August, significantly below expectations [9][10] - Consumers are under financial pressure due to persistent inflation and high interest rates, which may dampen demand during the holiday season [11] - Reports indicate that consumers plan to spend 5% less on holiday gifts and related expenses this year, marking the first significant drop since 2020 [12]