农林牧渔 农林牧渔 2025 年 06 月 15 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -29% -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 《5 月大猪出栏释放，2025H2 猪价不 悲观—行业点评报告》-2025.6.12 《生猪降重或进一步抬升 2025H2 猪 价，供给收缩及需求支撑驱动牛价稳 步上移—行业周报》-2025.6.8 《政策因素或引发猪价波动，头部宠 物食品品牌持续发力 618—行业周 报》-2025.6.2 CPI 连续 4 月同比下行，政策多维发力提振 2025H2 猪价 ——行业周报 | 陈雪丽（分析师） | 王高展（联系人） | 朱本伦（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | chenxueli@kysec.cn | wanggaozhan@kysec.cn | zhubenlun@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030001 | 证书编号：S0790123060055 | 证书编号：S0790124060020 | 周观察：CPI 连 ...

牧业： 截至 6 月 14 日，我国主产省集贸市场活牛价格 26.71 元/公斤，环比-0.01%，目前为动物蛋白消费淡季，牛肉价格保 持震荡状态；奶牛方面截至 6 月 5 日主产区合同内外平均收购价为 3.05 元/公斤，环比-0.3%，同比-8.1%，奶价下跌 幅度持续放缓，散奶方面近期维持在 2.5-2.6 元/公斤。我们预计随着供给端产能去化的逐步传导，原奶价格在 25H2 有望企稳回升，目前原奶价格依旧低迷，随着青贮季到来，预计行业去产能有望加速；肉牛方面近期犊牛与活牛价格 已经上涨，预计新一轮肉牛周期有望开启，板块景气度有望拐点向上。 投资建议 行情回顾： 本周（2025.06.09-2025.06.13）农林牧渔（申万）指数收于 2725.63 点(周环比+1.62%)， 沪深 300 指数收于 3864.18 点（周环比-0.25%），深证综指收于 2001.06 点（周环比-0.33%），上证综指收于 3377.00 点（周环比-0.25%），科 创板收于 972.94 点（周环比-1.89%)，农林牧渔行业指数跑赢上证综指。从一级行业涨跌幅来看，本周排名前三的为 有色金属（周环比+3.79 ...

Core Points - The article discusses the summer migration of over 1,300 herding families in the Arhu Khorqin Banner of Inner Mongolia, highlighting the challenges they face due to frequent rainfall during their journey [1][9] - The migration process involves careful preparation and the use of technology, such as smart collars for livestock, to track their location [1][3] - The article emphasizes the ecological benefits of the summer migration, showcasing the improved grassland conditions after a three-month rest period for the pastures [15][16] Migration Challenges - The herders are racing against the weather, trying to complete their journey before heavy rains forecasted from June 14 to June 15 [9] - Unexpected events occur during the migration, such as a cow attempting to return home, which complicates the journey [5] - The herders employ various strategies to ensure the safety and well-being of their livestock during the migration [5][11] Summer Camp Setup - Upon arrival at the summer camp, herders reinforce their yurts with waterproof materials to protect against rain [11] - The article describes the interior of the yurts, which are equipped for comfort and convenience, including food preparations and modern amenities like delivery services [13][14] Ecological and Economic Benefits - The article highlights the ecological improvements in the grasslands due to a three-month rest period, with vegetation coverage increasing from 68.6% to 73.65% and grass yield rising from 76.4 kg/mu to 84.25 kg/mu [18] - The local government has implemented measures to prevent overgrazing, establishing guidelines for livestock density on pastures [19] - The article discusses the establishment of a cooperative for managing excess livestock, providing comprehensive services for feeding and fattening [21]

中国发展网讯 赵志斌 记者郭建军报道 "十四五"以来，左权县以"链式思维"为笔，重塑农业版图， 从传统"输血式"帮扶华丽转向构建全产业链的"造血"体系，开启了一场以产业赋能为抓手的乡村振兴实 践，为老区共同富裕探索出一条全新路径。 左权县牢牢抓住产业兴旺关键，聚焦优势特色产业，以"链长制"为抓手、"链主"企业为引领，打造 特优农业品牌。核桃产业"三步走"深入推进，推行核桃树托管扩面提质，累计托管达14万亩，年核桃总 产量达1.8万吨；加速品种选育改良，为彻底解决品种杂乱问题奠定基础；拓展"林下经济"新业态，与 中咨资本有限公司合作，在核桃林下套种高附加值中药材，打造新的经济增长点。连翘产业"全链条"提 档升级，深入推进"产加销"链式发展，年销售收入达510余万元，荣获"中国生态连翘之都"道地原生态 产品区域公用品牌称号。左权羊产业"全流程"优化提能，规模进一步扩大，市场进一步拓展，"左权 羊"产业朝着规模化、品牌化发展迈进。 为有效贯彻产业发展思路，左权县聚焦特色产业延链补链，实施三大标志性工程。智慧渔业领航现 代农业，与深圳精渔科技有限公司建设总投资5.5亿元的智慧渔业产业园，投产后预计年产大西洋鲑 300 ...

据了解，豪赛良种羊养殖公司在2018年培育出富硒羊肉，之后富硒羊肉得到了社会的认可。在看好市场 发展前景的情况下，位于仁风镇的山东豪赛食品有限公司富硒羊肉屠宰车间正式投产。"这个车间的投 产是保障食品安全的关键一步。"该公司总经理付申围介绍，全新的车间采用智能化屠宰技术，建立了 全程可追溯体系，严格按照国家食品安全最高标准运行。 伴随着豪赛的发展模式的发展，济阳富硒畜牧业实现"三产融合"。具体来看，在养殖端，依靠专家团队 的技术支持，通过"公司+农户"的合作方式，推动当地肉羊养殖走向标准化、富硒化；加工环节，智能 化屠宰车间与冷链物流的完善，为羊肉深加工产品开发奠定基础；销售端，整合屠宰检疫、冷链配套、 品牌销售等环节，打造富硒羊肉品牌。 目前，该镇富硒行业发展正迭代升级。位于该镇的豪赛富硒羊肉在2018年将该地的富硒产业引入养殖 业。目前，更是将羊肉加工和销售提上日程，正式将富硒做成"三产融合"。 在11日举行的富硒技术培训仪式现场，山东省农科院羊产业体系首席专家、富硒技术权威专家以及省市 区多部门专家齐聚一堂，围绕肉羊疫病防治、富硒精准饲养、政策红利解读等内容展开授课。"这次培 训太实用了，不仅学到了科学 ...

Core Viewpoint - Vaclav Smil argues that economic growth should not be pursued unconditionally, as it relies on complex logistics rather than mere technological advancements, and that the current food production system is capable of meeting human needs, but waste and mismanagement are significant issues [1][4][5] Group 1: Economic Growth and Environmentalism - Smil critiques extreme environmentalists' doomsday rhetoric, suggesting that the focus should be on food waste rather than dietary restrictions [4][5] - He emphasizes that the current food production can provide 3000 kilocalories per person daily, with one-third of food wasted, highlighting the inefficiency in food distribution rather than production [4][5] - The book discusses the importance of agriculture as the foundation of human society, arguing that alternative food sources cannot replace traditional farming [4][6] Group 2: Food Production and Consumption - Smil's new book addresses the potential dangers of trendy diets that neglect traditional agriculture, warning that such trends could lead to future food shortages [5][6] - He provides data on the caloric needs of adults, arguing that low-carb diets could jeopardize food security if widely adopted [5][6] - The book explores the historical reliance on agriculture over hunting, citing anthropological studies that show the limitations of foraging for sustaining large populations [4][6] Group 3: Class and Food Security - Smil raises concerns about the disconnect between wealthy individuals' dietary choices and the food security needs of the larger population, suggesting that environmentalism often overlooks the basic needs of the poor [8][9] - He critiques the notion that organic farming is inherently better for the environment, pointing out that it often cannot meet the demand compared to conventional farming [8][9] - The discussion includes the economic implications of agricultural labor, noting that a significant portion of the population is engaged in agriculture, yet it remains undervalued compared to other sectors [8][9]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-6-13 均重偏高，生猪近月仍有压力 油脂：马棕增产压力或边际减弱，美豆产区天气正常 蛋⽩粕：豆粕10-1月基差放量，盘面套保压力增大 ⽟⽶/淀粉：现货涨势放缓，盘面偏弱 ⽣猪：均重偏高，现货及近月仍有压力 橡㬵：反弹结束，午后快速跳水 合成橡㬵：先跌后涨，维持偏弱对待 纸浆：盘面走低，平台下破可能更大 棉花：库存偏低，后续需求较为关键 ⽩糖：新作预期宽松，糖价延续走弱 原⽊：现货松动，盘面偏弱 【异动品种】 ⽣猪观点：均重偏⾼，现货及近⽉仍有压⼒ 主要逻辑：大猪出栏，需求淡季，生猪现货偏弱，猪粮比下跌后，6月11 日进行猪肉收储，市场情绪获得提振，但当前库存均重偏高，短期仍有压 力。（1）供应：短期，生猪出栏体重下降，大猪出栏占比明显提高， 活体库存加速释放中。中期，2025年1月~4月新生仔猪数量持续增加， 按照仔猪→商品猪6个月出栏时间推算，预计三季度生猪出栏量呈递增趋 势，供应压力继续增长。长期，当前产能仍在高位，据农业部口径，全国 能繁母猪存栏在2024年底增至高点后，2025年一季度母猪产能在高位呈现 增减波动。 ...

Group 1 - The pork concept sector experienced a decline of 1.11%, ranking among the top declines in concept sectors, with major companies like Juxing Agriculture and He Feng Co. seeing significant drops [1][2] - Among the pork concept stocks, only two companies, Guangming Meat and Delisi, saw price increases of 1.70% and 0.21% respectively [1][2] - The pork concept sector faced a net outflow of 269 million yuan from main funds, with 24 stocks experiencing outflows, and 14 stocks seeing outflows exceeding 10 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The largest net outflow was from Dabeinong, with 55.19 million yuan, followed by New Hope and New Wufeng with outflows of 48.85 million yuan and 23.22 million yuan respectively [2][3] - Conversely, the stocks with the highest net inflow included Muyuan Foods, Guangming Meat, and Delisi, with inflows of 78.63 million yuan, 6.23 million yuan, and 1.95 million yuan respectively [2][3] - The trading volume for Dabeinong was 1.95%, while Guangming Meat had a trading volume of 1.39% [3]

6月8日，根据福布斯实时富豪榜，泡泡玛特（09992.HK）创始人王宁目前身家为203亿美元，牧原股份 （002714.SZ）创始人秦英林身家为163亿美元。王宁已取代秦英林，成为河南新首富。 近期，泡泡玛特旗下Labubu爆火，一娃难求，一些联名或限量款的Labubu更是卖出了几千上万元的天 价。 Labubu的爆火，直接带飞了泡泡玛特股价。6月11日，泡泡玛特股价再次大涨4.25%，市值达3623亿港 元（约合人民币3332亿元）。泡泡玛特2024年年报显示，王宁持有泡泡玛特股权占比为48.73%。也就 是说，目前王宁的持股市值约为1623亿元。 河南首富换人 王宁取代牧原的秦英林夫妇 此前，河南首富为牧原股份的秦英林、钱瑛夫妇。据胡润百富今年3月发布的《2025胡润全球富豪 榜》，秦英林、钱瑛夫妇以1300亿元财富蝉联河南首富。 近期，Labubu火遍全球，泡泡玛特股价也持续上涨。 截至6月11日收盘，泡泡玛特股价报269.8港元/股，总市值3623.26亿港元。今年以来，泡泡玛特股价已 上涨204%。若将时间线拉长，从2024年初至今，泡泡玛特的股价涨幅超过了13倍。 据泡泡玛特2024年年报，创始人 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-06-12 需求跟进不足，猪价维持震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约13600元/吨，较前交易日变动+5.00元/吨，幅度+0.04%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格14.01元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+410，较前交易日变动-5；江苏地区 外三元生猪价格 14.25元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH09+650，较前交易日变动-5；四川地区 外三元生猪价格13.88元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH09+280，较前交易日变动-5。 据农业农村部监测，6月11日"农产品批发价格200指数"为113.17，比昨天上升0.08个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为113.27，比昨天上升0.12个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.28元/公斤，比昨天下降0.1%；牛肉63.61 元/公斤，比昨天上升1.0%；羊肉59.92元/公斤，比昨天上升0.5%；鸡蛋7.39元/公斤，比昨天上升0.5%；白条鸡17.06 元/公斤，比昨天上升1.4%。 市场分析 综合来看 ...