在北交所的第二轮问询函中，南方乳业的"市场地位披露准确性及经营风险揭示充分性"被重点关注。根据招股说明书，南方乳业目前的定位为地方型乳企， 产品销售主要集中在贵州及周边市场。该公司披露的数据显示，2023年，其在贵州省的市场占有率约为67.84%，全国市场占比为1.03%；同时，公司 是"2024年中国农业企业奶业20强"企业，业务规模在地方型乳企中位于前列。 近日，南方乳业宣布恢复北交所上市审核。今年9月下旬，因上市申请文件中的财务报告已到期需补充审计事项，南方乳业被北交所中止审核。11月14日， 南方乳业收到了北交所的第二轮问询函，涉及市场地位披露的准确性、研发费用的真实准确性等。业内分析人士指出，受奶价下行影响，南方乳业冲击北交 所，能否持续盈利是关键。 市场地位难匹配 官网显示，南方乳业属贵阳市农业农垦投资发展集团有限公司控股子公司，集乳制品、乳饮料的研发、生产、销售以及奶畜养殖于一体，产品主要以低温乳 制品和常温乳制品为主。旗下拥有"山花""花都牧场""贵草"等品牌，曾获中国奶业优秀乳品加工企业"最具影响力品牌企业"。 事实上，对于南方乳业在省外市场的拓展能力和成效，北交所在此次问询中也提出质疑。北 ...

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of Ausnutria by Yili Group has led to improvements in management and performance, but the actual performance has fallen short of initial expectations, prompting a downward revision of future growth forecasts for Ausnutria [1] Company Summary - Since the acquisition of Ausnutria, Yili Group has provided continuous support, resulting in year-on-year improvements in both management and performance [1] - For 2024, Yili Group has adjusted its growth rate expectations for Ausnutria due to underperformance and a decline in the overall market size for infant formula [1] - Yili Group has conducted impairment testing and made corresponding adjustments based on the revised growth expectations for Ausnutria [1] Industry Summary - The liquid milk industry is experiencing a more rational competitive landscape compared to previous price decline cycles, with larger companies focusing on profit improvement while smaller companies engage in price wars [1] - The decline in milk prices has been narrowing since the first quarter, and the supply-demand balance is expected to improve further this year due to ongoing adjustments in the dairy herd [1] - Yili Group has observed a recovery in the prices of raw milk and bulk powder recently, which is expected to contribute to an improved competitive environment in the industry [1] - Although liquid milk revenue has not yet returned to positive growth in the first quarter, there have been signs of improvement in the second quarter [1] - The company plans to maintain a low inventory and stable pricing strategy while strictly controlling shipment schedules to ensure channel health [1]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a rating of "Buy" for the company [2][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a stabilization and potential recovery in milk prices in 2025, which could lead to improved performance [6][9]. - The company has a strong backing from major shareholders, including Mengniu Dairy, which holds a 56.36% stake, ensuring a stable demand for its raw milk business [6][18]. - The report highlights the cyclical nature of the company's profitability, heavily influenced by raw milk prices and feed costs [6][7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 13.33 billion, 13.69 billion, and 14.11 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.6%, 2.65%, and 3.06% respectively [5][7]. - The net profit for the same period is forecasted to be 252 million, 432 million, and 727 million CNY, indicating a turnaround from losses in 2024 [5][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -0.179 CNY in 2024 to 0.032 CNY in 2025, and further to 0.092 CNY by 2027 [5][7]. Business Overview - The company primarily focuses on raw milk sales, with a significant portion of its revenue derived from long-term contracts with major clients like Mengniu and New Hope Dairy [6][26]. - The company has expanded its operations to 47 farms across 13 provinces, with a total of 491,200 dairy cows, of which 51.08% are mature cows [6][21]. - New business segments, including feed and breeding solutions, are being developed, contributing to revenue diversification [6][22]. Valuation and Market Comparison - The report employs a comparable company price-to-book (PB) valuation method, suggesting a target price of 1.26 HKD per share for the next year, representing a 12.4% upside from the current price [7][9]. - The average PB ratios for comparable companies are projected to be 0.95, 0.80, and 0.69 for 2025-2027 [7][9]. Key Assumptions - The report assumes a 2% and 0.5% year-on-year growth in raw milk sales volume for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with an average selling price (ASP) increase of -2% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026 [8][9]. - The cost of raw milk is projected to be 2.51 CNY/kg in 2025, with feed costs contributing significantly to overall expenses [8][9].