Core Viewpoint - The U.S. bond market is expected to remain volatile at high levels, with investment banks warning of a "calm before the storm" scenario, indicating potential trading opportunities in response to liquidity shocks [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The bond market has stabilized this week, suggesting a temporary lull in volatility [1] - The U.S. Treasury's safe-haven appeal is diminishing, prompting considerations for left-side long positions to be entered in phases [1] Group 2: Currency and Equity Insights - The Japanese yen and Japanese stocks have returned to a negative correlation, raising questions about whether the Nikkei index has reached a bottoming opportunity [1] - There are indications that gold and the Japanese yen may present new positioning windows for investors [1]

Group 1: Company Bond ETF Performance - As of May 26, 2025, the Company Bond ETF (511030) increased by 0.01%, marking its sixth consecutive rise, with the latest price at 105.79 yuan [1] - Over the past six months, the Company Bond ETF has accumulated a total increase of 1.12% [1] - The latest scale of the Company Bond ETF reached 14.914 billion yuan, a new high in nearly one year [1] - The latest share count for the Company Bond ETF is 14.1 million, a new high in nearly one month [1] - The Company Bond ETF has seen continuous net inflows for the past eight days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 323 million yuan, totaling 1.23 billion yuan, averaging 154 million yuan per day [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Market Trends - The expected growth rates for 2024 are 3.5% for retail sales, 3.2% for investment, and 7.1% for exports, with only exports showing strong performance [1] - For 2025, the anticipated growth rates are around 5% for consumption, 4% for investment, and 7% for export total value, indicating a potential stabilization of the economy [1] - The recovery of consumption is viewed as a core support for economic stabilization [1] - Analysts suggest waiting until late June for interest rate bonds and recommend focusing on credit bonds with yields above 2% [1] Group 3: Government Bond ETF Performance - As of May 26, 2025, the Government Bond ETF (511020) is in a state of equilibrium, with the latest quote at 117.24 yuan, and has seen a cumulative increase of 2.86% over the past six months [5] - The latest scale of the Government Bond ETF is 1.491 billion yuan, with recent inflows and outflows balancing out [6] - Over the past five trading days, the Government Bond ETF has attracted a total of 24.605 million yuan [6] - Since its inception, the Government Bond ETF has achieved a maximum monthly return of 2.58% and a historical holding period profitability rate of 100% over three years [6] Group 4: National Development Bond ETF Performance - As of May 26, 2025, the National Development Bond ETF (159651) increased by 0.02%, with the latest price at 106.03 yuan, and has seen a cumulative increase of 2.02% over the past year [9] - The National Development Bond ETF has experienced a significant growth of 378 million yuan in scale over the past six months, ranking it among the top half of comparable funds [9] - The latest net outflow for the National Development Bond ETF is 29.258 million yuan, with a total of 86.187 million yuan attracted over the past ten trading days [9] - The National Development Bond ETF has a historical profitability rate of 100% over two years, with a monthly profitability probability of 87.6% [9]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The company has successfully issued various special local bonds with different maturities and interest rates, indicating a strong demand in the bond market. Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - The company issued a 10-year special local bond with a scale of 3.78 billion, an interest rate of 1.79%, and a marginal multiple of 1.22, with an expected multiple of 1.80 [1] - A 15-year special local bond was issued with a scale of 13.90 billion, an interest rate of 2.04%, and a marginal multiple of 1.40, with an expected multiple of 2.24 [1] - The company also issued a 20-year special local bond with a scale of 48.32 billion, an interest rate of 2.12%, and a marginal multiple of 1.46, with an expected multiple of 2.10 [1]

Group 1 - The bond market continues to show volatility, with recent reserve requirement ratio cuts and subsequent interest rate reductions leading to a balanced short-term sentiment [1] - The central bank has continued to implement net OMO (Open Market Operations), resulting in a relatively loose funding environment that supports the mid-to-short end of the yield curve [1] - The market is expected to maintain a narrow range of fluctuations, as the overall monetary easing policies have been implemented without significant negative impacts [1] Group 2 - Attention should be paid to the upcoming MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility), reverse repos, and central bank bond purchases, as unexpected liquidity injections could lead to further declines in yields [1] - The government bond ETF (511520) has seen active trading, with transaction amounts exceeding 10 billion yuan for four consecutive days, making it the largest bond ETF in the market with a total scale exceeding 46 billion yuan [1] - The ETF has a duration of approximately 7.5 years, offering good liquidity and serving as a useful tool for clients looking to adjust duration and engage in tactical trading within the bond market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market experienced a "rise then fall" pattern, with government bond futures declining in the afternoon and long-term bonds showing weakness, while short to medium-term bonds performed relatively well. The market is expected to remain in a range-bound fluctuation due to limited improvement in bank interest margins from the recent interest rate cuts, with the next rate cut window anticipated to be at least in the third quarter [1][6][7]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed mixed, with the 30-year main contract down 0.08% at 119.61, the 10-year main contract unchanged at 108.83, the 5-year main contract up 0.03% at 106, and the 2-year main contract up 0.02% at 102.38 [2]. - The interbank major interest rate bond yields showed slight differentiation, with long bonds stable and medium to short bonds performing better. The 10-year government bond yield rose by 0.5 basis points to 1.671%, while the 7-year government bond yield fell by 0.5 basis points to 1.61% [2]. Overseas Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 10-year yield increasing by 3.96 basis points to 4.489% and the 30-year yield rising by 6.98 basis points to 4.974% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly fell slightly, with the 10-year yield down by 0.1 basis points [3]. - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds also increased, with French bonds up by 0.3 basis points to 3.259% and German bonds up by 1.8 basis points to 2.603% [3]. Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance's three types of government bonds had weighted average winning yields mostly below the China Bond valuation, with the 30-year bond yield at 1.8808% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.16 [4]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 1570 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 650 billion yuan for the day [5]. - The Shibor short-term rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate unchanged at 1.509% and the 7-day rate down by 0.7 basis points to 1.549% [5]. Institutional Perspectives - Huatai Fixed Income noted that the recent LPR and deposit rate cuts are a continuation of the May rate cut policy, with the adjustments slightly exceeding expectations due to significant pressure on banks' net interest margins [6]. - Zhongjin Fixed Income highlighted that the asymmetric rate cuts are beneficial for the bond market and reflect the central bank's support for banks' net interest margins and overall health [7]. - Guosheng Fixed Income emphasized that the recent adjustments in LPR and deposit rates are a follow-up to previous policy rate reductions, which will help alleviate banks' funding costs and enhance bond market demand [7].

Group 1 - Sichuan issued a 30-year general special local bond with a scale of 115.41 billion and an issuance interest rate of 2.11% [1] - The marginal multiple for the 30-year general special local bond was 9.97 times, with an expected multiple of 2.04 [1] - Sichuan also issued a 30-year other special local bond with a scale of 135.56 billion and the same issuance interest rate of 2.11% [1] Group 2 - The marginal multiple for the 30-year other special local bond was 6.95 times, with an expected multiple of 2.04 [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the bond market and monetary policy strategies in the context of the current economic environment, particularly focusing on the implications of interest rate changes and credit strategies. Key Points and Arguments Monetary Policy and Market Conditions - The central bank's monetary policy operations indicate a focus on stable growth, but uncertainties surrounding US-China tariff negotiations require ongoing attention. The logic of systematically converging the funding center remains to be validated, with unexpected cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates reflecting the current stable growth approach [1][2][3] - The bond market has not strongly anticipated the dual cuts, with bond yields not significantly declining. The probability of a systematic elevation of the funding center is low, especially if the 7-day funding rate remains around 1.55% [1][2][3] Interest Rate Dynamics - Short-term interest rates face challenges in declining, with potential fluctuations leaning towards strength. The pricing of long-term rates is not favorable, but capital gains can be pursued if funding conditions loosen. The lower limit for the 10-year government bond yield is estimated to be around 1.6% [3][9] - The current market logic is bullish, suggesting that immediate short-selling is not advisable. Continuous analysis of future trends is necessary, as increased risk appetite or better-than-expected domestic demand data could lead to bond price declines [3][10][11] Credit Strategy Recommendations - It is recommended to continue holding 2-3 year ordinary credit bonds as a base position, as there are still opportunities for interest rate arbitrage. Attention should be paid to government issuance terms and potential short-term fluctuations around tax periods and month-end [5][6] - For 4-5 year secondary capital bonds, the current value is less favorable compared to shorter maturities. It is suggested to wait for tighter funding conditions before purchasing, treating this position with a trading mindset [6][7] - For bonds with maturities of 4-5 years and perpetual bonds, it is advised to hold from a coupon perspective, with a focus on high-yield points or individual bonds, such as 6-8 year secondary capital bonds, while also considering liquid credit bonds to build a high-coupon base [8] Investment Portfolio Construction - The construction of investment portfolios should consider three aspects: aggressive strategies for capital gains, stable strategies for consistent returns, and interest rate-focused strategies. Recommendations include a mix of 2-3 year credit bonds, long-term local government bonds, and liquid high-rated credit bonds [12] - For capital gains, strategies should involve betting on funding loosening, with options to buy the most active bonds or select those with the best value [13] Market Dynamics and Future Considerations - The spread between the 20-year and 30-year special government bonds remains around zero due to liquidity preferences and market dynamics favoring local government bonds over long-term special government bonds [17][18] - The impact of newly issued government bonds on existing main bonds' liquidity and value is expected to be minimal, as the new issues are relatively small in scale [19][20] Specific Investment Suggestions - For trading, it is advisable to consider the 30-year special government bond and the newly issued 10-year bonds from the National Development Bank. Short-term floating rate bonds are also highlighted for their potential value post-LPR adjustments [21][22] Other Important Insights - The current market environment suggests a preference for active trading strategies, with a focus on liquidity and interest rate dynamics. Continuous monitoring of market conditions and timely adjustments to strategies are essential for optimizing returns [14][15][16]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Hubei Province has successfully issued various types of local government bonds with different maturities and interest rates, indicating strong demand in the bond market. Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - Hubei issued 7-year general bonds totaling 90.692 billion with an interest rate of 1.6900% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.83, exceeding the expected ratio of 1.70 [1] - Hubei issued 10-year general bonds totaling 78.2984 billion with an interest rate of 1.7900% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.00, slightly below the expected ratio of 1.78 [1] - Hubei issued 1-year ordinary special bonds totaling 7.5000 billion with an interest rate of 1.4800% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 6.61, significantly higher than the expected ratio of 1.49 [1] - Hubei issued 7-year ordinary special bonds totaling 68.2089 billion with an interest rate of 1.7200% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 4.59, above the expected ratio of 1.71 [1] - Hubei issued 10-year ordinary special bonds totaling 64.3273 billion with an interest rate of 1.8400% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.43, lower than the expected ratio of 1.81 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant easing of tariffs between China and the U.S., alongside stronger-than-expected export data for April, but notes an unexpected tightening of funds leading to a defensive phase in the bond market with rising yields [1] - Most institutions expect that the tightening of funds will be controllable and will not replicate the continuous tightening seen in February and March [1] - The upcoming week is anticipated to face disruptions from bond issuance and tax payments, with a concentrated issuance of 3, 10, 30, and 50-year government bonds, which may prompt institutions to adjust their portfolios in advance to meet bidding demands [1] Group 2 - It is expected that deposit rates and the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) will be lowered this week, and the April economic data to be released on Monday is also anticipated to be weak, which would be favorable for the bond market [1] - The government bond ETF (511520) has seen a net inflow of over 1.2 billion in the past 10 days, with a total scale of approximately 46.2 billion, making it the largest bond ETF in the market [1] - The government bond ETF (511520) is noted for its good liquidity and suitability for clients looking to extend duration easily, serving as a useful tool for both trading and allocation in the bond market [1]

【海外债市】 北美市场方面，当地时间5月15日，美债收益率全线走低，2年期美债收益率跌7.95BPs报3.963%，3年期 美债收益率跌9.23BPs报3.951%，5年期美债收益率跌10.6BPs报4.056%，10年期美债收益率跌10.08BPs 报4.434%，30年期美债收益率跌8.09BPs报4.89%。 亚洲市场方面，日债收益率全线回落，10年期日债收益率下行2.5BPs至1.455%，3年期和5年期日债收益 率分别走低2BPs和1.7BP。 新华财经北京5月16日电（王菁）债市周五（5月16日）小幅走弱，海外债市抛售情绪稍有蔓延，期限券 亦受稳增长预期扰动，日内同步回调，银行间现券收益率普遍回升1-2BPs，国债期货全线收跌；公开市 场单日净投放295亿元，临近税期资金利率多数转为上行。 机构认为，当前市场主体有效融资需求尚有提升空间，金融体系负债扩张速度或将继续高于资产扩张速 度，债券配置需求或将继续支撑交易，收益率曲线或陡峭化下移。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘全线下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.10%报118.910，10年期主力合约跌0.05%报108.480，5年 期主力合约跌0.06%报1 ...