Core Insights - Goldman Sachs recognized Mark Hanson, Co-Founder and President of Black Buffalo Inc., as one of the Most Exceptional Entrepreneurs of 2025 at the Builders and Innovators Summit [1][2] - The Summit focused on building enduring companies and advancing innovation, featuring leaders from various industries [1][2] - Black Buffalo has achieved significant milestones, including expanded national retail distribution and growth of its Herd Rewards loyalty program [1][3] Company Overview - Black Buffalo, founded in 2015, is a leading provider of smokeless tobacco alternative products, supported by over 25,000 hours of research and development [3] - The company has been recognized as one of the Inc. 5000 Fastest-Growing Private Companies in America for four consecutive years, with the latest recognition in 2025 [3] - Black Buffalo's products are designed for adult consumers aged 21 and older, containing pharmaceutical-grade, tobacco-derived nicotine [5] Industry Recognition - The Builders and Innovators Summit is a prestigious event celebrating exceptional entrepreneurs, with past honorees leading multi-billion dollar companies [2] - David Solomon, Chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs, praised Black Buffalo for redefining industry paradigms under Hanson's leadership [2]

In recent years the operating margin on a cigarette sold in America has grown from about 50% to about 60%. We explain how a dying industry is thriving https://t.co/7lU9YPKeFo ...

Core Viewpoint - Altria Group, Inc. is set to report its third-quarter 2025 earnings on October 30, with expected revenues of $5.32 billion, reflecting a 0.4% decline year-over-year, while earnings per share are projected to grow by 4.4% to $1.44 [1][5] Earnings Performance - Altria has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 3.3%, with the last quarter's earnings exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.1% [2] - The current Zacks Rank for Altria is 2 (Buy), but it has an Earnings ESP of -0.04%, indicating uncertainty regarding an earnings beat this quarter [3][4] Factors Influencing Q3 Earnings - Strong pricing power, disciplined cost management, and momentum in smoke-free initiatives are expected to drive Q3 results [5] - Volume softness in traditional cigarettes is noted due to inflationary pressures, but robust pricing actions and strategic portfolio management are anticipated to offset this weakness [5] Key Growth Drivers - The high-margin oral tobacco business, particularly the growth of on! nicotine pouches, is a significant contributor to earnings resilience [6] - Continued consumer engagement through marketing efforts is expected to enhance brand equity and repeat usage [6][8] Stock Performance - Over the past three months, Altria's stock has increased by 7.4%, outperforming the Zacks Tobacco industry's breakeven performance and the Consumer Staples sector's decline of 3.6% [7] - Compared to competitors, Altria has outperformed Philip Morris International and British American Tobacco, while underperforming Turning Point Brands [7] Valuation Analysis - Altria shares are trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 11.49, below the industry average of 14.49, indicating compelling value for investors [9] - The valuation gap is notable when compared to competitors, with Philip Morris at 18.66 and Turning Point Brands at 23.94 [11] Investment Outlook - Altria's strong pricing strategies and expansion of smoke-free products, particularly on! nicotine pouches, position the company as an attractive investment option [12] - With steady earnings growth and solid cash flow, Altria is viewed as a reliable choice for stability and long-term returns in the consumer staples sector [12]

Investment Opportunities - Companies in the mining sector are demonstrating greater capital discipline and generating substantial free cash flow, allowing for continued capital returns to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases [1] - Gold miners are expected to deliver robust dividends due to a recent surge in gold demand [1] - Emerging market debt has outperformed emerging market stocks on average since 1997, benefiting from lower interest rates [2] Small-Cap and Value Stocks - Small-cap value stocks are highlighted as being very rate-sensitive and are expected to benefit from the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle [3] - Investors are encouraged to diversify their portfolios by including small, undervalued stocks alongside large-cap growth stocks [3] Cash and Low-Risk Yields - Americans currently hold nearly $20 trillion in cash, including $7 trillion in money market funds, which have provided substantial returns in recent years [5] - With the Federal Reserve resuming its rate-cutting cycle, investors are exploring new opportunities for deploying cash [6] Gold and Bitcoin - A strategy suggested includes allocating half of the investment into gold and half into bitcoin, as both assets are seen as hedges against a declining US dollar and rising global sovereign debt [7] - Central banks are increasingly purchasing gold and bitcoin, indicating strong structural tailwinds for these assets [8] International Stocks - European and UK stocks are considered attractive due to their lower price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios compared to US stocks, along with larger dividends [10][11] - A potential decline in the US dollar could amplify returns for US investors in international investments [12] AI and Technology Investments - The AI sector is viewed as still having growth potential, with investments suggested in both Chinese and US AI stocks [14][15] - Companies involved in the infrastructure build-out related to AI, such as semiconductors and industrial firms, are recommended for investment [17] Healthcare and Diversification - The healthcare sector is suggested as a counterbalance to technology investments, with expectations of normalization in certain lagging areas [18] - Managed care and health maintenance organization (HMO) stocks are identified as attractive due to expected earnings growth and low valuations [20] Value Opportunities - Companies with low earnings multiples and at trough levels are seen as having significant upside potential [20] - Firms tied to housing turnover and those trading at a "headquarter discount" are highlighted as attractive investment opportunities [22]

Core Insights - Altria (MO) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $1.44 per share, reflecting a 4.4% increase year-over-year, while revenues are forecasted at $5.32 billion, indicating a 0.4% decline compared to the previous year [1] - Analysts have revised the consensus EPS estimate down by 0.3% over the last 30 days, suggesting a reevaluation of initial estimates by analysts [1][2] Revenue Estimates - Revenues net of excise taxes for Oral tobacco products are projected to be $713.65 million, showing a year-over-year increase of 2.7% [4] - Revenues net of excise taxes for Smokeable Products are expected to reach $4.64 billion, reflecting a slight decline of 0.2% from the same quarter last year [4] Operating Income Estimates - Operating Income for Oral tobacco products is estimated at $486.18 million, compared to $464.00 million from the previous year [5] - Adjusted Operating Income for Smokeable Products is anticipated to be $3.00 billion, up from $2.94 billion reported in the same quarter last year [5] Stock Performance - Altria shares have decreased by 1.6% over the past month, contrasting with a 2.5% increase in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [5] - The company holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating expectations of outperforming the overall market in the near term [5]

Industry Performance - Cigarette and cigar makers are expected to make $22 billion of operating profit in America this year [1] Market Trends - Unlike other industries where vanishing customers lead to suffering, the cigarette and cigar industry is expected to thrive [1]

Industry Focus - Cigarette manufacturers profit from people who quit smoking [1]

Group 1 - Certificates of deposit (CDs) are a popular investment option for generating income with minimal risk, where investors lock up cash for a set period in exchange for interest payments at an agreed annual percentage yield (APY) [1] - The average yields of 12-month CDs have climbed to 5%-6% due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes in 2022 and 2023, making them appealing to investors [4] - The Federal Reserve has already reduced its benchmark rate three times in 2024 and once in 2025, leading to expectations of further rate cuts, which will decrease the attractiveness of CDs [5] Group 2 - As interest rates decline, income-oriented investors are likely to shift towards blue chip dividend stocks that offer higher yields than CDs, such as AT&T with a forward dividend yield of 4.3% [7] - Altria, focusing on smoke-free products, offers an even higher forward yield of 6.6%, making it an attractive alternative for income-seeking investors [9] - Investors locking up cash in CDs may miss out on more attractive investment opportunities as rates decline, potentially leading to suboptimal investment decisions [6][8]

Group 1: Altria Group Inc. (MO) - Altria Group has a dividend yield of 6.5% and has increased its dividend 60 times over the past 56 years, making it an attractive option for dividend investors [5][6] - Despite a declining cigarette volume market, which saw a 6% annual decline from 2019 to 2024, Altria continues to generate strong cash flow and expanding margins [4][9] - The U.S. tobacco market remains stable at around $90 billion, allowing for price increases that can offset volume declines, positioning Altria for potential growth [6][10] Group 2: Conagra Brands (CAG) - Conagra Brands primarily operates in the U.S. frozen food market with well-known brands but faces challenges due to lower investment in product development and marketing [12][14] - The company's previous acquisition strategy has not yielded positive results, as evidenced by the divestment of Ralcorp at half the purchase price [13] - Conagra's focus on brand building is commendable, but without significant investment in marketing and innovation, it risks falling behind competitors in a highly competitive market [15][16] Group 3: Comparative Analysis - Altria is successfully expanding margins and increasing free cash flow, while Conagra struggles to invest in its brands, leading to stagnant growth [18][19] - The contrasting performance of these two companies highlights that not all dividend stocks are equally positioned for long-term success [18]

Core Viewpoint - Philip Morris International's stock has experienced a pullback despite strong performance, presenting a potential buying opportunity for investors [1][10]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3, organic revenue rose 5.9% year-over-year to $10.8 billion, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) climbing 17.3% to $2.24 [7]. - Traditional cigarette volumes fell by 3.2% to 157.9 billion units, but the company reported better-than-expected results in Turkey [6]. - Segment organic revenue increased by 1% to $6.4 billion, and gross profits rose 4.8% to $4.3 billion due to price hikes offsetting volume declines [6]. Group 2: Product Performance - Zyn, the company's nicotine pouch brand, saw U.S. shipments increase by 37% in Q3, with retail sales volumes soaring by 39% [3]. - The heated tobacco units (HTUs), including the Iqos system, experienced a 15.5% increase in sales volumes to 40.8 billion units [4]. - The e-vapor product, Veev, saw shipments surge 91% to 900 million units, maintaining the No.1 market share in eight countries [4]. Group 3: Guidance and Strategy - Management maintained its full-year guidance for organic revenue growth at 6% to 8% while slightly increasing the adjusted EPS forecast to $7.46 to $7.56 [9]. - The company invested approximately $100 million in promotions to boost Zyn volumes, which accounted for a single-digit percentage of shipments in the quarter [11][12]. - Zyn's promotional activity was previously low due to supply constraints, and the strategy aims to attract users of other nicotine products [12]. Group 4: Valuation - Philip Morris' stock is trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of under 18, with a price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of under 0.7, indicating potential undervaluation [14]. - The forward yield is just below 4%, making it an attractive investment opportunity in the defensive growth stock category [14][15].