Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows structural differentiation, with the cyclical sectors cooling down and the non - cyclical sectors showing different performances. Different commodities have different trends and influencing factors, and the market is affected by both domestic and international news, policies, and market sentiment [2][3][8] - For different commodities, specific analysis and operation suggestions are provided based on their fundamentals, including supply, demand, and inventory [13][20][40] Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Monday, the A - share market showed a trend of opening higher, turning down, and then rising. The major indexes generally rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.44%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.96%. The non - bank sector rose, while the cyclical sectors such as coal and shipping fell. Most of the four major stock index futures contracts rose, and the basis of the main contracts showed seasonal repair [2][3] - **News**: In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline compared to May. The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement, and the EU will increase investment in the US and purchase US military and energy products [3][4] - **Funding**: On July 28, the A - share trading volume decreased slightly, with a total turnover of 1.74 trillion. The central bank conducted 4958 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 3251 billion yuan [5] - **Operation Suggestion**: As the major indexes maintain an upward trend after breaking through the annual high, but approaching the interim report disclosure period, it is necessary to verify the substantial improvement of profits. It is recommended to gradually take profits on the long positions of IM futures and replace them with a small amount of short positions of MO put options with an exercise price of 6000 in the 08 contract to reduce the position [5] Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed up across the board, with the 30 - year main contract up 0.56%, the 10 - year main contract up 0.18%, the 5 - year main contract up 0.13%, and the 2 - year main contract up 0.04%. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined [6] - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 4958 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on July 28, with a net investment of 3251 billion yuan. The money market became looser at the end of the month [6][7] - **Operation Suggestion**: The central bank increased reverse repurchase investment, and the decline in commodity prices improved the bond market sentiment. However, the short - term market may still fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, pay attention to the money market and incremental policies. The 10 - year Treasury bond has certain allocation value. The 2509 - 2512 contract spread may tend to rise in the short term [7] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Situation**: The US and the EU announced a trade agreement, which boosted the US dollar index. Gold prices fell for four consecutive days, with international gold closing at $3314.78 per ounce, down 0.67%. International silver prices were flat at $38.14 per ounce [8][9] - **News**: The US Treasury plans to borrow $1.007 trillion in the third quarter, a significant increase compared to the April forecast. Trump expressed disappointment with Putin and threatened to impose "secondary sanctions" on Russia [8][9] - **Market Outlook**: Before August 1, more countries may reach trade agreements with the US, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in July is low, which will support the US dollar and suppress gold prices. Gold prices may test the support of the 60 - day moving average. Silver prices are driven by ETF funds, and it is recommended to buy on dips [9][10] Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping - European Routes - **Spot Price**: As of July 28, the prices of major shipping companies were in a certain range. The SCFIS European route index fell 3.5% month - on - month, and the US West route index fell 46.98% month - on - month [11] - **Fundamentals**: As of July 28, the global container shipping capacity increased by 7.9% year - on - year. The PMI data of the eurozone and the US in June showed the economic situation [11] - **Market Logic**: The futures market oscillated downward, and the main 10 - contract closed down 1.62%. The uncertainty of prices in August has decreased, and it is expected to show an oscillating trend in the future. Spot prices will not fluctuate significantly in the short term and are expected to decline slowly in the long term [12] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to be weakly oscillating, and it is recommended to short the 08 and 10 contracts on rallies [12] Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of July 28, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper decreased, and downstream consumption willingness was low. High copper prices inhibited downstream procurement [13] - **Macro**: The domestic "anti - involution" policy affects copper from both demand and supply aspects, but there is a risk of macro - sentiment ebbing in the short term [13] - **Supply**: The supply of copper concentrates may be restricted, and the production of refined copper in June decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. It is expected to increase in July [14] - **Demand**: The processing and terminal demand for copper showed a certain trend. The weekly operating rate of copper rod production decreased, but the terminal demand still had some resilience [15] - **Inventory**: COMEX, LME, and domestic social inventories all increased [16] - **Market Logic**: Macro - sentiment may ebb, and the copper market shows a short - term supply - demand double - weak situation. However, domestic policies and low inventories support copper prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the "anti - involution" policy and overseas tariff policies [17] - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 78000 - 80000 [17] Alumina - **Spot**: On July 28, the spot prices of alumina in different regions remained unchanged [17] - **Supply**: In June, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina in China increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the operating capacity increased [18] - **Inventory**: As of July 24, the port inventory and the total registered volume of warehouse receipts increased [18] - **Market Logic**: The futures price fell due to the ebbing of market sentiment. Although the supply of bauxite in Guinea may be tight and the warehouse receipt inventory is low, the increase in production capacity will push up the supply. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish, with the main contract expected to operate between 3000 - 3400 [19] Aluminum - **Spot**: On July 28, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased, and the premium decreased [19] - **Supply**: In June, the production of electrolytic aluminum decreased month - on - month, and the proportion of molten aluminum may decline in July. The operating capacity is expected to remain high [20] - **Demand**: Downstream industries are in the traditional off - season, and the operating rates of various industries are relatively stable or slightly decreased [20] - **Inventory**: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas increased, while the inventory in bonded areas decreased. The LME inventory increased [20][21] - **Market Logic**: The "anti - involution" policy sentiment cooled down, and aluminum prices decreased slightly. The supply is stable, the demand is weak, and the inventory may increase. It is expected to oscillate widely between 20200 - 21000 [21] Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On July 28, the average price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased [21] - **Supply**: In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, but it is expected to decline in July due to the off - season and other factors [22] - **Demand**: The demand in June was under pressure, and the market transaction was sluggish. The downstream maintains a low - inventory procurement strategy [22] - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased, and the inventory in some areas was close to full [22] - **Market Logic**: The price of aluminum alloy decreased slightly, and the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with the demand side being more prominent. It is expected to oscillate weakly between 19600 - 20400 [23] Zinc - **Spot**: On July 28, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots decreased, and the spot transaction was not smooth [23] - **Supply**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, but the production growth rate in May and June was lower than expected. The production of refined zinc increased in June and is expected to continue to increase in July [24] - **Demand**: The operating rates of primary processing industries are differentiated. The galvanizing industry is relatively stable, while the die - casting and zinc oxide industries are in the off - season [25][26] - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased, while the LME inventory decreased [26] - **Market Logic**: The supply is expected to be loose, the demand is weak, and the inventory may enter the accumulation cycle. It is expected to oscillate between 22000 - 23000 [27] Tin - **Spot**: On July 28, the price of SMM 1 tin decreased, and the market was in a "price but no market" situation [27] - **Supply**: In June, the import of tin ore and tin ingots decreased. The supply of tin ore is currently tight, but Myanmar's production is expected to resume in late August [28] - **Demand and Inventory**: The operating rate of the soldering tin industry decreased in June. The demand in the photovoltaic and electronics industries is weak. The LME and domestic inventories increased [28][29] - **Market Logic**: The market sentiment weakened, and tin prices fell from a high level. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to macro - changes and inventory changes after Myanmar's resumption of production [29] Nickel - **Spot**: As of July 28, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased [30] - **Supply**: The production of refined nickel is at a relatively high level and is expected to increase slightly in July [30] - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloys is relatively stable, while the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak [30] - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory is high, the domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the bonded area inventory remained stable [31] - **Market Logic**: The macro - sentiment turned weak, and the nickel market is affected by supply and demand and macro - factors. It is expected to adjust within the range of 120000 - 128000 [32] Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of July 28, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan showed different trends [33] - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore is loose, and the price of nickel iron is weak and stable. The chromium iron market is stable [33] - **Supply**: The estimated production of stainless steel in July decreased month - on - month [34] - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipt decreased [34] - **Market Logic**: The stainless steel price oscillated weakly. The macro - sentiment ebbed, the supply is under pressure, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate between 12600 - 13200 [35] Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of July 28, the spot prices of lithium salts increased, but the futures market limit - down, and the basis narrowed [35] - **Supply**: In June, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and it is expected to continue to increase in July. However, there are some supply disturbances [36] - **Demand**: The demand is relatively stable, with some differentiation among different manufacturers. The demand in July is expected to increase slightly [36] - **Inventory**: The whole - chain inventory is increasing, but the inventory growth rate slowed down last week [37] - **Market Logic**: The market is affected by macro - sentiment and news, and the trading core has shifted to the ore end. It is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [38] Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals Steel - **Spot**: Steel prices decreased, and the basis strengthened. The prices of billets, rebar, and hot - rolled coils all decreased [40] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of coking coal and iron ore has different trends. The profit of steel mills has increased [40] - **Supply**: The production of molten iron remains high, and the production of steel has changed slightly. The production of rebar and hot - rolled coils has different trends [40] - **Demand**: The apparent consumption of five major steel products remains high, and the inventory is stable [41] - **Inventory**: The inventory of major steel products is at a low level and remains stable. The inventory of rebar decreased slightly, while the inventory of hot - rolled coils increased slightly [41] - **Viewpoint**: Affected by market sentiment, steel prices decreased. The supply and demand are basically balanced, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of 3300 yuan for rebar and 3400 yuan for hot - rolled coils [41] Iron Ore - **Spot**: The prices of mainstream iron ore powders decreased [42] - **Futures**: As of July 24, the prices of iron ore futures decreased [42] - **Basis**: The cost of different iron ore warehouse receipts is different, and the basis of different varieties is also different [42] - **Demand**: The daily output of molten iron, blast furnace operating rate, and steel mill profitability are at a relatively high level [42] - **Supply**: The global shipment of iron ore increased, and the arrival volume at ports decreased [42] - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly, the daily port clearance volume decreased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased [44] - **Viewpoint**: The iron ore price oscillated downward. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, but the "anti - involution" speculation may end, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and short on rallies [44] Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures limit - down, and some spot prices began to fall. The market sentiment declined [45] - **Supply**: The resumption of coal mine production is slow, and the supply is still tight. The price of imported coking coal decreased [45][47] - **Demand**: The coking plant's production is stable, and the downstream demand for molten iron is high [46][47] - **Inventory**: The overall inventory is at a medium level, with the coal mine inventory decreasing and the downstream inventory increasing [46][47] - **Viewpoint**: The coking coal futures limit - down due to position - limit intervention. The supply and demand fundamentals are improving, but the previous increase has fully digested the positive factors. It is recommended to conduct hedging operations, be cautious about shorting on rallies, and conduct arbitrage operations [48] Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures limit - down, the factory price increased, and the port price decreased. The fourth - round price increase of some coke enterprises has partially landed [49][50] - **Profit**: The average profit per ton of coke is negative, but there are differences among different regions [49] - **Supply**: The production of coke is difficult to increase due to the slow resumption of coal mine production and enterprise losses [49][50] - **Demand**: The downstream demand for molten iron is high, providing support for coke [50] - **Inventory**: The inventory of coke enterprises and ports decreased, and the steel mill's inventory increased [50] - **Viewpoint**: The coke futures limit - down, and the spot price is expected to increase. It is recommended to be cautious about shorting on rallies and conduct arbitrage operations [50] Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - **Spot Market**: The price of soybean meal decreased in some regions, and the trading volume increased. The price of rapeseed meal decreased, and the trading volume was 100 tons [51] - **Fundamentals**: The US exported soybeans to Mexico, speculators reduced short positions in soybean meal futures, Argentina reduced export tariffs on agricultural products, and the EU's oilseed imports decreased [52] - **Market Outlook**: US soybeans oscillate at the bottom, and the new crop is expected to be a bumper harvest, suppressing the price. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventory is increasing, and it is recommended to wait and see [52][53] Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of live pigs oscillated weakly, with different trends in different regions [54] - **Market Data**: The profit of self - breeding and self - raising sows and the profit of

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: July 29, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core View - The "anti-involution" logic has cooled down, with many previously surging varieties hitting the daily limit down. Alumina dropped 6.27% intraday, while electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy continued minor adjustments. Aluminium prices are under significant resistance at the previous high, and shorting at appropriate positions is recommended [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 28th, SHFE Aluminum 2509 closed down 0.65% at 20,615. The total index position decreased by 26,792 to 627,084 lots. The 08 - 09 spread was 30, and the AD - AL negative spread was -510 [8]. - Bauxite supply remains loose, but the impact of the rainy season in Guinea and mine license suspensions is expected to be felt in August, and ore prices are expected to stop falling and recover [8]. - Under the "anti-involution" logic, alumina futures prices rose rapidly, opening the spot - futures arbitrage window and supporting the spot price. However, the operating capacity of alumina continues to rise, and the oversupply situation persists. After the short - term sentiment fades, it enters a correction phase [8]. - In the cast aluminum sector, it is currently the off - season for the automotive industry. With weakening demand and a shortage of scrap aluminum supply, cast aluminum follows SHFE Aluminum in range - bound fluctuations, and the AD - AL maintains a low negative spread structure [8]. - At the electrolytic aluminum end, it is still the traditional off - season. Domestic operating capacity remains high, demand is weak, and the开工 rate in the aluminum processing sector remains low [8]. 2. Industry News - **Electrolytic Aluminum Import and Export Data**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a 13.8% month - on - month decrease and a 58.7% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.2499 million tons, a 2.5% year - on - year increase [9]. - **Primary Aluminum Exports**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum exports were about 19,600 tons, a 39.5% month - on - month decrease and a 179.4% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 86,600 tons, a 206.6% year - on - year increase [10]. - **Primary Aluminum Net Imports**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum net imports were 172,700 tons, a 9.4% month - on - month decrease and a 51.3% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum net imports were about 1.1633 million tons, a 2.3% year - on - year decrease [10]. - **Production**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production was 3.81 million tons, a 3.4% year - on - year increase. In July, domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remained high [10]. - **Bauxite Mine Rights**: On July 17, 2025, Guinea revoked the exploration and mining licenses of 45 mining companies, including six bauxite enterprises. These are long - idle mine rights with no actual mining activities [10]. - **Alcoa's Spanish Smelter**: Alcoa expects its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain to restart in mid - 2026, with an expected loss of up to $110 million. The restart was postponed due to a nationwide power outage in April. On July 14, the restart work resumed [10][11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the trade agreement between the US and Japan is that Japan will impose a 15% tariff on goods exported to the US, which is lower than the previously threatened 25% tariff, and Japan will invest $550 billion in key sectors like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [1][4] - Japan's acceptance of US passenger cars without additional testing is a significant aspect of the agreement, indicating a move towards easing trade barriers [1] - The agreement is seen as a compromise from Japan, which initially sought the removal of all tariffs, and the current tariff rates may hinder Japan's economic recovery amid inflation [3][4] Group 2 - The $550 billion investment from Japan is expected to support Japanese companies, but analysts warn that the US may benefit disproportionately, potentially leading to fiscal pressure on Japan [4] - The agreement may lead to increased competition for Japan's domestic agricultural sector due to the opening of markets to US agricultural products, which could widen the trade deficit [4] - Economic forecasts suggest that the new agreement could result in a 0.55% decline in Japan's GDP within a year, highlighting potential negative impacts on the Japanese economy [4]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index is currently up by 0.1%, the Dow Jones is down by 0.1%, and the Nasdaq is up by 0.4% [1] - President Trump is considering imposing tariffs on other countries ranging from 15% to 20% [1] - The U.S. aims to produce its own required steel and aluminum [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The成材is expected to move in a range with consolidation, while the aluminum price is expected to be strong in the short - term within a range, with the成材price showing a downward trend and the aluminum price facing a slow inventory accumulation situation [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1.成材 - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown plans, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, with a month - on - month decrease of 40.3% and a year - on - year increase of 43.2% [2] - The成材price continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the winter storage is sluggish, with the price expected to move in a range with consolidation [1][2] - Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [2] 2. Aluminum (including raw materials and aluminum ingots) - As of last Thursday, the national metallurgical - grade alumina had a total built - in production capacity of 110.32 million tons/year and a total operating capacity of 89.57 million tons/year, with the weekly operating rate up 0.45 percentage points to 81.19%. The alumina market remains in an oversupply situation [2] - The supply of domestic bauxite is limited, and the price is expected to remain stable. The inventory of imported bauxite is high, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term. Future price trends depend on factors such as the rainy season in Guinea, alumina operating capacity, and profitability [2] - As of July 24, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 510,000 tons, showing an increase. The reduction in aluminum rod production since the end of June has led to an increase in the proportion of aluminum ingot casting, and the arrival of goods is the core driver of inventory accumulation in the off - season [2] - In the current off - season, the inventory is slowly accumulating, and the demand pressure limits the upside. The aluminum price is expected to be strong in the short - term within a range, and later attention should be paid to the macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [2][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Aluminum is expected to experience high-level oscillations, alumina will see intense multi - short battles, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Aluminum and Alumina Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 20,760 yuan, up 250 yuan from a week ago and 1,075 yuan from three months ago. The trading volume is 143,571 lots, a decrease of 1778 lots from the previous day. The LME aluminum 3M closing price is 2,646 US dollars, up 8 US dollars from the previous day and 278 US dollars from three months ago [1] - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract is 3,428 yuan, up 295 yuan from a week ago. The trading volume is 905,021 lots, an increase of 118,451 lots from the previous day [1] 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory is 494,000 tons, up 23,000 tons from a week ago. The Shanghai bonded area premium is 113 US dollars, unchanged from the previous day [1] - **Alumina Spot**: The domestic average price of alumina is 3,255 yuan, up 18 yuan from a month ago. The alumina arrival price at Lianyungang is 399 US dollars per ton, up 5 US dollars from a week ago [1] 3.3 Industry News - In June, the year - on - year decline in the profits of China's large - scale industrial enterprises narrowed to 4.3%. The profit of the automobile industry increased by 96.8%, and the profits of intelligent unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturing and computer整机 manufacturing increased by 160.0% and 97.2% respectively [3] - Trump believes that Powell will start to suggest interest rate cuts and that US manufacturers benefit from a weaker dollar [3] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of aluminum is 0 (neutral), alumina is - 1 (weakly bearish), and aluminum alloy is 0 (neutral) [3]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information provided about the report's investment rating for the industry. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the US-Japan tariff agreement and progress in EU-US trade negotiations, overseas risk aversion declined. In the domestic market, the news of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology eliminating old production capacity boosted market sentiment, which needed to be repaired later in the week. In terms of fundamentals, most recent capacity changes in the supply side were replacements, with a small amount of capacity resuming production in Guizhou, and the operating capacity increasing slightly by 10,000 tons compared to last week. Downstream, the aluminum processing weekly operating rate continued to decline slightly due to the triple pressures of weak demand in the off - season, high aluminum prices, and tariff uncertainties. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased by 12,000 tons to 510,000 tons, while the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 10,500 tons to 145,500 tons [2]. - This week, there is high uncertainty in the overseas Fed's interest - rate decision and the negotiation process of the expiration of US reciprocal tariffs, with high macro - elasticity. Fundamentally, the operating capacity in the supply side increased slightly. In the consumption side, due to the off - season and high aluminum prices, downstream purchasing slowed down. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly, but the aluminum rod inventory continued to decline, and the warehouse receipt inventory returned to around 60,000 tons after a short - term increase. Overall, the inventory increase was not very smooth. It is expected that the aluminum price will have a certain repair after last week's sentiment adjustment, and the relatively small supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals will support the aluminum price, leading to some adjustments [2][7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - The price of LME Aluminum 3 - month decreased from 2,638 yuan/ton on July 18th to 2,631 yuan/ton on July 25th, a drop of 7 yuan/ton. The SHFE Aluminum Continuous 3 increased from 20,375 dollars/ton to 20,660 dollars/ton, a rise of 285 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio increased from 7.7 to 7.9, an increase of 0.1. The LME spot premium increased from - 0.78 dollars/ton to 1.07 dollars/ton, an increase of 1.9 dollars/ton. The LME aluminum inventory increased from 430,700 tons to 450,825 tons, an increase of 20,125 tons. The SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased from 66,548 tons to 54,675 tons, a decrease of 11,873 tons. The spot average price increased from 20,554 yuan/ton to 20,838 yuan/ton, an increase of 284 yuan/ton. The spot premium decreased from 120 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton. The South - storage spot average price increased from 20,538 yuan/ton to 20,814 yuan/ton, an increase of 276 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - Guangdong price difference increased from 16 yuan/ton to 24 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton. The aluminum ingot social inventory increased from 492,000 tons to 510,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons. The theoretical average cost of electrolytic aluminum increased from 16,669.43 yuan/ton to 16,760.91 yuan/ton, an increase of 91.5 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of electrolytic aluminum increased from 3,884.57 yuan/ton to 4,077.09 yuan/ton, an increase of 192.5 yuan/ton [3]. 行情评述 - The weekly average price of the spot market was 20,838 yuan/ton, an increase of 284 yuan/ton compared to last week. The weekly average price of the South - storage spot was 20,814 yuan/ton, an increase of 276 yuan/ton compared to last week [4]. 宏观方面 - The US - Japan tariff negotiation reached an agreement. The "reciprocal tariff" rate imposed by the US on Japan will be reduced from 25% to 15%, and Japan will increase the import of US rice under the current "minimum access system". The EU and the US are moving towards an agreement that will set a 15% tariff rate for most products. The South Korea - US "2 + 2" economic and trade consultation scheduled for the 25th was cancelled due to the US side. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.5, the lowest since December 2024, while the preliminary value of the service industry PMI was 55.2, and the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 54.6, both reaching the highest since December 2024. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 217,000, the lowest since mid - April, lower than the market expectation of 226,000 and the previous value of 221,000. EU member states voted to impose counter - tariffs on US products worth 93 billion euros. The European Central Bank kept its three key interest rates unchanged, pressing the "pause button" on interest - rate cuts for the first time after eight consecutive rate cuts since June last year. The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in July reached 49.8, the highest since July 2022, and the service industry PMI unexpectedly rose to 51.2, driving the composite PMI to 51, both higher than market expectations. The PMI data of Germany and France also rebounded [5][6]. 消费端 - According to SMM, the operating rate of the domestic downstream aluminum processing industry increased by 0.2 percentage points to 58.8% compared to the previous period. Currently, the downstream is in the off - season. The operating rate of the recycled alloy sector continued to decline, but due to the decline in the aluminum price center, there were differences among different sectors. The weekly operating rates of aluminum profiles and aluminum cables increased slightly, driving the marginal improvement of the industry's operating rate. It is expected that the weekly operating rate of the downstream aluminum processing industry will decline by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% next week [6]. 库存方面 - According to SMM, on July 17th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 492,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons compared to last Thursday, and the aluminum rod inventory was 156,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons compared to the previous period [6]. 行情展望 - Similar to the core viewpoints, it emphasizes that after last week's sentiment adjustment, the aluminum price is expected to have a certain repair, and the relatively small supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals will support the aluminum price, leading to some adjustments [7]. 行业要闻 - According to the General Administration of Customs, in June 2025, the domestic import volume of primary aluminum was about 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic import volume of primary aluminum was about 1,249,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In June 2025, the net import of domestic primary aluminum was 172,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of domestic primary aluminum was about 1,163,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. According to SMM, a technical renovation project of an aluminum plant in Guangxi has started to gradually start up electrolytic cells. The first batch of 50,000 tons/year, a total of 84 electrolytic cells, is expected to be fully put into operation next month, and the remaining renovation capacity will be gradually started up within this year [8]. 相关图表 - The report includes various charts such as the price trend of LME Aluminum 3 - SHFE Aluminum Continuous 3, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai Aluminum current - month to continuous - one spread, seasonal spot premium of physical trade, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, seasonal changes in electrolytic aluminum inventory, and seasonal changes in aluminum rod inventory [9][10][11][15].

Summary of Zhongfu Industrial Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zhongfu Industrial - **Industry**: Aluminum production and processing Key Points Industry and Company Developments - Zhongfu Industrial increased its electrolytic aluminum equity capacity by approximately 120,000 tons through the acquisition of shares in Yulian Group, which is a highlight given the current capacity constraints in the industry [2][3] - The adjustment of the electricity settlement scheme in Sichuan Province and the decline in alumina prices have reduced production costs, effectively expanding profit margins in the electrolytic aluminum segment [2][4] Financial Performance and Projections - The company expects net profits of approximately 1.98 billion yuan, 2.46 billion yuan, and 2.75 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, benefiting from capacity enhancements, cost optimization, and improvements in processing operations [2][7][30] - The employee stock ownership plan totals no more than 1.25 billion yuan, with a future three-year dividend plan distributing no less than 60% of the annual distributable profits, enhancing development confidence [2][8] Risks and Challenges - Zhongfu Industrial faces risks including fluctuations in raw material prices (alumina, coal), adjustments in electricity pricing, international aluminum price volatility, and potential power restrictions during drought periods [2][9] - The company has experienced challenges due to environmental regulations leading to production limits in Henan, resulting in asset efficiency and value declines [11][12] Operational Insights - The company has a complete industrial chain including coal, electricity, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum processing, with equity capacities of approximately 600,000 tons of coal, 900,000 kW of thermal power, and 690,000 tons of aluminum processing capacity [2][10] - The aluminum processing segment, which has a capacity of 690,000 tons, is primarily focused on can body and can material production, with 66% of output exported [5][25] Market Dynamics - The electrolytic aluminum industry has seen a supply-side reform since 2017, with a current utilization rate of 98.22%, indicating limited upward capacity [16] - Global aluminum demand has shifted, with reduced demand from the construction sector and increased demand from transportation and electricity sectors [20] Pricing and Profitability - The company anticipates a conservative price outlook due to recent tariff policies, with expected average prices of 20,000 yuan/ton for aluminum in 2025, and 3,200 yuan/ton for alumina [29] - The profitability of the electrolytic aluminum segment is sensitive to price changes, with a 1,000 yuan increase in aluminum prices potentially adding about 500 million yuan to profits [32] Future Outlook - The company is positioned for growth with a focus on enhancing production capacity and optimizing costs, while also navigating the challenges posed by market volatility and regulatory environments [2][30][31]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union is keen to continue discussions regarding the tariffs on steel and aluminum imposed by the United States [1] Group 1 - The EU's interest in ongoing discussions indicates a potential for negotiation and adjustment of current trade policies [1]

美国高级行政官员：欧盟同意对汽车、半导体和药品15%的关税，并同意美国维持对钢铁和铝征收50% 的关税。 ...