Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][13]. Core Views - The core local business segment's profit exceeded expectations, and Keeta is building a second growth curve [6][13]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 88.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.1%, and adjusted EBITDA of 11.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 207.7% [6][10]. - As of December 31, 2024, the company had cash and cash equivalents of 70.8 billion yuan [6][12]. Summary by Sections Business Overview - The company is expanding its multi-category supply and increasing support for merchants in its takeaway and instant retail businesses. New models like "Pin Hao Fan" and "Brand Satellite Stores" are being introduced to help merchants increase sales and attract new customers [7]. - The company launched a 1 billion yuan "Merchant Support Plan" in Q4 2024 to optimize merchant efficiency and innovation through cash and subsidies [7]. Performance Metrics - The core local business generated revenue of 65.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, with operating profit of 12.9 billion yuan, up 60.9%, and an operating margin of 19.7% [9]. - New business revenue in Q4 2024 was 22.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.5%, with operating losses narrowing to 2.2 billion yuan, a 55.0% improvement [9]. Financial Data and Forecasts - The company forecasts revenues of 337.6 billion yuan for 2024, 394.2 billion yuan for 2025, and 455.4 billion yuan for 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.99%, 16.76%, and 15.53% respectively [10]. - The net profit for 2024 is projected at 35.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 158.43% [10]. - The estimated reasonable market value for 2025 is between 1.09 trillion and 1.27 trillion Hong Kong dollars, translating to a reasonable share price range of 179 to 209 Hong Kong dollars [13][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for JD Group [4][11]. Core Views - JD Group's 4Q24 performance exceeded expectations with revenue of 347 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%, and Non-GAAP net profit of 11.3 billion yuan, up 34.5% year-on-year [4][5]. - The company has initiated a new share repurchase plan allowing for up to 5 billion USD in buybacks over the next 36 months [4]. - The growth in revenue is driven by the "trade-in" program for consumer goods, which is expected to continue into 2025 [4]. Financial Analysis - In 4Q24, JD Group's revenue reached 347 billion yuan, marking a 13.4% year-on-year increase, while Non-GAAP net profit was 11.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 34.5% increase year-on-year [7][10]. - The active user base and shopping frequency continued to grow at double-digit rates, with significant contributions from third-party merchants [7][10]. - Direct sales revenue for 4Q24 was 281 billion yuan, with home appliances and 3C products increasing by 15.8% and fast-moving consumer goods by 11.1% year-on-year [7][10]. - Service revenue for 4Q24 was 66 billion yuan, up 10.8% year-on-year, with platform and advertising revenue growing by 12.7% [7][10]. Major Financial Data and Forecast - The projected revenue for JD Group is expected to grow from 1,088 billion yuan in 2023 to 1,467 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.2% [8][14]. - Non-GAAP net profit is forecasted to increase from 24.2 billion yuan in 2023 to 54.5 billion yuan by 2027, with a significant growth rate of 132.82% in 2024 [8][14]. - The report estimates a reasonable market capitalization range for 2025 between 627.5 billion and 704.1 billion HKD, translating to a target share price of 197 to 221 HKD [11][12].