Group 1 - The article emphasizes that the fundamental outlook is expected to improve in a pulse-like manner, supported by the stabilization of capital market expectations through the balanced fund [2] - The market is currently engaged in a game where public fund holdings are aligning with performance benchmarks, indicating a focus on thematic investments [2] - Global risk appetite is rising due to easing geopolitical tensions, as indicated by positive movements in major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 [3] Group 2 - The demand is showing slight recovery, but asset turnover rates are declining, which is negatively impacting profitability [6] - The future rhythm of the industry remains unchanged, with key catalysts for the domestic AI industry still pending [7] - The article suggests a focus on consumer sectors such as air conditioning, white goods, liquor, education publishing, traditional Chinese medicine, dairy products, and non-sports apparel [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for TCL Smart Home, indicating a forecasted increase of over 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 12 months [6][13]. Core Views - TCL Smart Home's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 18.36 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 21.0%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1.02 billion RMB, reflecting a 29.6% increase [3][4]. - The company has shown strong performance in overseas markets, with a 55.9% year-on-year growth in overseas business revenue, driven by a robust global strategy [3][4]. - The report highlights the improvement in profitability, with a net profit margin of 5.55% for 2024, up by 0.37 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, TCL Smart Home's revenue and net profit are projected to be 18.36 billion RMB and 1.02 billion RMB, respectively, with significant growth rates of 21.0% and 29.6% year-on-year [3][4]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenues of 4.42 billion RMB and a net profit of 194 million RMB, marking increases of 15.1% and 29.7% year-on-year [3][4]. - The company's main operational segments, including the Oma refrigerator and Hefei appliances, reported revenues of 13.41 billion RMB and 5.04 billion RMB, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 22.7% and 15.5% [3][4]. Product and Regional Performance - In 2024, revenue from refrigeration and washing machines reached 15.51 billion RMB and 2.70 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.5% and 33.2%, respectively [4]. - Domestic revenue slightly declined by 1.55% to 4.87 billion RMB, while overseas revenue surged by 31.82% to 13.50 billion RMB, indicating a shift towards international markets [4]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for 2024 was reported at 23.0%, a slight decrease of 0.37 percentage points year-on-year, with specific margins for refrigeration and washing machines at 25.1% and 10.4% [5]. - The report notes an optimization in expense ratios, with selling, administrative, and R&D expenses showing improvements in Q4 2024 [5]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 5.55%, reflecting an increase in profitability compared to the previous year [5]. Future Projections - The forecast for 2025 and 2026 indicates net profits of 1.15 billion RMB and 1.30 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.06 RMB and 1.20 RMB [6][8]. - The report anticipates continued revenue growth, projecting total revenues of 20.52 billion RMB in 2025 and 22.92 billion RMB in 2026, with growth rates of 11.78% and 11.68% [8].