铀业
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中广核矿业(01164):稀缺海外铀资源平台,受益铀价上行
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-07-10 02:53
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a rare overseas uranium resource platform, benefiting from rising uranium prices and the global nuclear power recovery [1][2]. - The company has signed a sales framework agreement with CGN Uranium for the years 2026 to 2028, ensuring a minimum annual purchase of 1,200 tons of natural uranium, with a pricing mechanism that favors the company [2]. - The demand for uranium is expected to grow due to China's ongoing nuclear power investments, with a forecast of 10 or more new units approved annually since 2022 [3]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of HKD 86.2 billion and a net profit of HKD 3.4 billion in 2024, with a significant increase in net profit expected in the following years [1][4]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are HKD 90.8 billion, HKD 100.2 billion, and HKD 109.4 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 5%, 10%, and 9% [3]. - The projected net profit for the same years is HKD 6.1 billion, HKD 9.3 billion, and HKD 10.2 billion, with substantial growth rates of 79%, 51%, and 10% respectively [3][4]. Market Data - As of July 9, 2025, the closing price of the stock is HKD 2.27, with a 12-month price range of HKD 1.24 to HKD 2.58 [5]. - The company has a total market capitalization of HKD 18.17 billion and a total share count of 7.601 million [5].
铀业弹性表(2025年6月版)
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-26 01:21
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the uranium production from China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) is projected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.88% from 2024 to 2027, indicating a robust growth outlook for the company [5] - The pricing mechanism for CGN's sales contracts has been updated, with the base price portion decreasing from 40% to 30% for the 2026-2028 period, while the base price remains significantly higher than previous levels, which is expected to enhance the company's performance [5] Summary by Sections Uranium Resource and Production - CGN's uranium equity resource amounts to 24,289 tons, with projected production for 2024 to 2027 as follows: 1,324 tons in 2024, 1,338 tons in 2025, 1,438 tons in 2026, and 1,617 tons in 2027 [4] - The average realized selling price for uranium is expected to rise from $75.04 per pound in 2024 to $85.42 per pound in 2027 [4] Pricing Mechanism - The base price for CGN's sales contracts is set at $94.22 per pound for the 2026-2028 period, which is significantly higher than the previous pricing levels [5] - The average spot price for uranium is projected to remain stable at around $80 per pound from 2024 to 2026 [4]