核电兼顾清洁高效，安全性持续升级 当前商业化核电项目大部分基于裂变反应，主流方案以U235为燃料，中子轰击产生两个较轻的原子 核，同时释放大量能量，其热值远超传统能源。核能最早在上世纪五十年代开始由军用向民用发电等领 域应用，存量项目以二代为主，新增多为安全性更优的三代方案，SFR、LFR、VHTR等四代堆型以及 SMR等分布式方案是当前的技术应用演进方向。 全球核电复苏，铀需求有望持续增长 历次核风险事件均对核电发展节奏、技术方案产生深远影响。2011年福岛事件对全球核电发展造成冲 击，但伴随电气化进程的稳步推进以及近年来AI带来的用电量爆发，核电被重新重视，同时22年以来 地区冲突加剧了欧洲能源独立性问题，迫使先期弃核的地区重新审视核电的战略地位，近年来全球主要 核电大国在核电领域投入加码：1)2019年国内核电重启，近4年批复机组数量均维持10台以上，节奏明 显加快;2)2025年5月，特朗普签署多项行政命令，从项目审批、安全评估、先进技术等多方位推动美国 核电建设加速，并提出2050年400GW的庞大的扩张计划;3)欧洲方面，法国重启核电建设，德国放弃反 核立场，丹麦推翻核电禁令等，全球范围集聚核电的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities indicates that uranium prices are expected to maintain an upward trend, leading to improved profitability for uranium mining companies due to increased global investment in nuclear power and a constrained supply environment [1][3]. Group 1: Nuclear Power Development - Continuous upgrades in nuclear technology are enhancing its status as a clean and efficient energy source, with a growing demand for high-quality electricity driven by electrification and AI [1][2]. - The global nuclear power sector is experiencing a revival, with major nuclear countries increasing investments, particularly in response to regional energy independence issues exacerbated by conflicts [3]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - The supply of natural uranium is limited, primarily relying on the restart of previously closed mines, with potential significant shortages anticipated around 2030 due to aging mines and insufficient new projects [4]. - Historical context shows that uranium prices fell below $20 post-Fukushima, leading to reduced capital expenditures and a stagnation in new developments, which has created a supply gap [4][5]. Group 3: Price Trends - Uranium prices have risen from approximately $20 per pound in 2016-2017 to around $80 currently, with an estimated cumulative industry shortfall of about 100,000 tons from 2015 to 2024 [5]. - Projections indicate that uranium supply deficits will continue, with expected shortfalls of 0.64, 3.19, and 7.91 million tons of uranium by 2030, 2035, and 2045, respectively, supporting the upward price trend [5].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive investment outlook for the nuclear power industry, indicating a recovery in global nuclear power and an upward trend in uranium prices [1]. Core Insights - Nuclear power technology is continuously upgrading, providing a clean and efficient energy solution. The electrification process and the demand for high-quality electricity driven by AI are reinforcing the strategic position of nuclear power [1][7]. - The global nuclear power sector is experiencing a revival, with increasing uranium demand anticipated due to renewed interest in nuclear energy following geopolitical tensions and the need for energy independence in Europe [7][24]. - Supply constraints are evident, with short-term increases in uranium supply relying on the resumption of production from idled mines. A significant supply gap may emerge around 2030 if new projects do not come online [7][55]. - The report predicts a sustained upward trend in uranium prices, supported by a historical supply-demand gap and recent adjustments in production by leading suppliers [7][68]. Summary by Sections 1. Clean and Efficient Energy Source - Nuclear power primarily relies on fission reactions using U235 as fuel, generating significant energy compared to traditional sources [11]. - Current commercial nuclear projects are mostly based on second and third-generation technologies, with ongoing advancements towards fourth-generation designs [7][16]. 2. Global Nuclear Revival and Growing Uranium Demand - The global nuclear power capacity is approximately 397 GW, with 72 GW under construction. Projections suggest that by 2040, capacities could reach between 552 GW and 966 GW depending on various scenarios [24][53]. - The demand for uranium is expected to increase by 118% by 2040, driven by the resurgence of nuclear power and the need for stable energy sources amid rising electricity consumption from AI technologies [7][53]. 3. Supply-Demand Gap and Rising Uranium Prices - The report highlights that the uranium supply is primarily dependent on newly mined resources, with a significant portion of the current supply coming from existing stockpiles [55]. - The cumulative supply-demand gap from 2015 to 2024 is estimated at around 100,000 tons, with uranium prices rising from approximately $20 per pound in 2016 to around $80 per pound currently [68]. - Future projections indicate that if production does not meet demand, uranium prices are likely to continue their upward trajectory, supported by strategic resource management and market dynamics [68].

Group 1 - China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) Mining (01164) saw a stock increase of over 7%, specifically 7.55%, reaching HKD 2.85 with a trading volume of HKD 134 million [1] - U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright suggested that the U.S. should consider expanding its strategic uranium reserves to reduce dependence on Russian supplies and enhance confidence in the long-term prospects of nuclear power [1] - According to Zheshang Securities, the global trend of nuclear power recovery remains unchanged, and the supply-demand tightness in the natural uranium market has not eased, indicating a potential upward correction in spot uranium prices [1] Group 2 - The company, as a specialized uranium resource development and operation platform under CGN Group, is expected to expand its resource portfolio alongside the group's increasing nuclear power installed capacity [1] - The current cycle of rising natural uranium prices is anticipated to lead to simultaneous growth in both volume and price for the company [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive market response for China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) Mining, with a stock increase of over 7% following comments from the U.S. Energy Secretary regarding the expansion of strategic uranium reserves to reduce reliance on Russian supplies and boost confidence in the long-term prospects of nuclear power [1] - The report from Zheshang Securities indicates that the global nuclear power recovery trend remains unchanged, and the tight supply-demand dynamics in the natural uranium market have not eased, suggesting a potential upward correction in spot uranium prices [1] - The company, as a specialized uranium resource development and operation platform under CGN Group, is expected to benefit from the group's increasing nuclear power installed capacity, leading to growth in both volume and price during the current natural uranium upcycle [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company's 1H25 performance fell short of expectations, primarily due to declining natural uranium spot prices and losses in international trade business [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of HKD 1.71 billion in 1H25, a year-on-year decrease of 58% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of HKD 67.57 million, marking a shift from profit to loss compared to the previous year [1]. - The average sales price for self-produced trade was USD 71.1 per pound, while the average cost was USD 72.85 per pound, resulting in a slight loss in self-produced trade [1]. Production and Sales - The company's equity natural uranium production was 632 tons (tU) in 1H25, with self-produced trade volume at 526 tU [1]. - The company achieved a production completion rate of 105% for the Shiyou company, producing 428 tU of natural uranium [1]. - The production costs for Shiyou's mines were USD 32.5 per pound and USD 27.7 per pound for the Yimin mine [1]. International Trade Business - The international trade business faced losses due to unit sales prices ranging from USD 58 to 61 per pound and costs between USD 68 to 74 per pound, leading to a negative impact on short-term profits [2]. - The average inventory cost exceeded contract selling prices, contributing to the losses [2]. Development Trends - The new sales framework agreement is expected to benefit from the upward trend in uranium prices, with a pricing structure that includes a higher fixed price and a greater proportion of spot pricing [2]. - The company plans to revise its 2026 production plan, reflecting the need for higher prices to stimulate capacity utilization [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E ratio of 33.6 for 2025 and 20.6 for 2026 [3]. - The target price has been raised by 25% to HKD 3.14, reflecting a potential upside of 16% from the current stock price [3].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a rare overseas uranium resource platform, benefiting from rising uranium prices and the global nuclear power recovery [1][2]. - The company has signed a sales framework agreement with CGN Uranium for the years 2026 to 2028, ensuring a minimum annual purchase of 1,200 tons of natural uranium, with a pricing mechanism that favors the company [2]. - The demand for uranium is expected to grow due to China's ongoing nuclear power investments, with a forecast of 10 or more new units approved annually since 2022 [3]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of HKD 86.2 billion and a net profit of HKD 3.4 billion in 2024, with a significant increase in net profit expected in the following years [1][4]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are HKD 90.8 billion, HKD 100.2 billion, and HKD 109.4 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 5%, 10%, and 9% [3]. - The projected net profit for the same years is HKD 6.1 billion, HKD 9.3 billion, and HKD 10.2 billion, with substantial growth rates of 79%, 51%, and 10% respectively [3][4]. Market Data - As of July 9, 2025, the closing price of the stock is HKD 2.27, with a 12-month price range of HKD 1.24 to HKD 2.58 [5]. - The company has a total market capitalization of HKD 18.17 billion and a total share count of 7.601 million [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) Mining is on a fast track for development, with projected revenues and net profits showing significant growth from 2025 to 2027 [1] - The company is the only platform for overseas uranium resource development under CGN Group, with its parent company being China Uranium Development Co., Ltd., controlled by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [1] - The company has experienced rapid revenue growth following acquisitions, including the purchase of a 49% stake in a foreign company, leading to a substantial increase in uranium sales volume [1] Group 2 - The company benefits from three major advantages: strong internal demand for nuclear power from CGN Group, a broad potential market for growth, and more flexible pricing under new agreements [2] - The production cost of the company's uranium is among the lowest globally, with its mining operations expected to ramp up production as sulfuric acid supply stabilizes [2] Group 3 - The uranium market is currently experiencing a tight supply situation, influenced by geopolitical conflicts and a slow recovery in production from existing mines [3] - Although uranium prices have dipped to around $64 per pound due to low long-term contract activity, demand is expected to recover as nuclear power initiatives gain momentum in both China and the U.S. [3] - The overall supply growth is projected to be around 8.51% in 2024 and 6.03% in 2025, with a slowdown anticipated in 2026, while demand remains strong due to investments and the recovery of nuclear power installations [3]