Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report primarily discusses the **Chinese market** and its economic indicators, particularly in the context of ongoing trade tensions with the United States. The **MXCN/CSI300** indices experienced declines of **4.1%** and **2.2%** respectively, influenced by threats of additional tariffs from President Trump on Chinese goods starting November 1 [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Trade Relations**: President Trump has threatened a **100% tariff** on Chinese goods, which has led to market volatility. This is in response to China's export controls on rare earth materials [1]. - **Economic Indicators**: - **Trade Growth**: September trade growth exceeded expectations, with exports and imports increasing by **8.3%** and **7.4%** year-over-year respectively [1]. - **PPI and CPI**: Producer Price Index (PPI) deflation eased, while Consumer Price Index (CPI) deflation continued, particularly due to food prices [1]. - **Investment Flows**: There were significant inflows into the Southbound Connect, totaling **US$156 billion** year-to-date [5]. - **Future Meetings**: A meeting between President Trump and President Xi is scheduled, which may influence future trade policies [1]. Earnings and Valuations - **Market Performance**: - Offshore financials outperformed with a **4.1%** increase, while IT sectors lagged with a **7.8%** decline [2]. - A-share performance showed energy sectors outperforming with a **6.2%** increase, while IT and growth sectors lagged [3]. - **Earnings Forecasts**: The forward price-to-earnings ratios for MXCN and CSI300 are **12.9x** and **14.4x** respectively, with consensus EPS growth estimates for 2025/26 at **1%/16%** for MXCN and **15%/13%** for CSI300 [9]. Policy and Regulatory Environment - The Ministry of Commerce indicated that new policies to stabilize foreign trade will be introduced [1]. - The **14th Five-Year Plan** discussions are anticipated in the upcoming 4th Plenary Session, which may impact future economic strategies [1]. Additional Insights - **Sector Performance**: Historical data indicates that sectors such as energy and materials typically outperform following announcements of Five-Year Plans [12][13]. - **Investor Sentiment**: The report suggests that retail sentiment in A-shares is not overly stretched compared to previous periods of strong sentiment [32]. - **Market Strategy**: The report indicates a modest outperformance of A-shares over H-shares in the next three months based on proprietary models [23]. Conclusion - The current economic landscape in China is heavily influenced by trade tensions with the U.S., with significant implications for market performance and sectoral growth. Investors are advised to monitor upcoming policy announcements and trade negotiations closely, as these will likely shape the investment climate in the near term.

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment sentiment with a focus on buying the dip in US equities, particularly in single stocks, which saw significant inflows [9][18]. Core Insights - Institutional and retail clients were net buyers of US equities, with a notable $4.1 billion inflow into single stocks, marking the fifth highest weekly inflow since 2008 [9][18]. - The report highlights a shift back to large-cap stocks, with inflows observed across all market cap sizes, particularly in Communication Services and Health Care sectors [9][18]. - Hedge funds continued to sell US equities for the fifth consecutive week, contrasting with the buying behavior of institutional and retail clients [9][18]. Summary by Sections Client Flows - Institutional clients led the buying activity, marking the largest weekly inflow since November 2022, while retail clients also participated after a period of selling [9][18]. - Hedge funds were the largest net sellers, with cumulative flows showing a significant outflow trend [5][22]. Sector Performance - Inflows were recorded across all 11 sectors, with Communication Services and Health Care leading the way, alongside notable inflows in the Energy sector [9][18]. - The report notes that clients sold equity ETFs for a second week, with outflows primarily from Tech and Materials sectors, while defensive sectors like Health Care and Real Estate saw inflows [9][18]. Size Segmentation - All market cap segments (large, mid, small) experienced inflows, with small caps showing resilience with inflows in five of the last seven weeks [9][18]. - The report indicates a preference for small-cap and value ETFs, contrasting with the outflows from large and mid-cap ETFs [9][18]. Corporate Buybacks - Corporate buybacks have slowed but are expected to pick up during the earnings season, with a focus on Tech and Financials dominating the buyback activity over the last three months [9][18].

Core Insights - The investment strategy focuses on acquiring strong businesses at undervalued prices, emphasizing the importance of quality and economic fundamentals [1] Investment Focus - The company has diversified its portfolio across various industries, including telecom, banking, payments, and technology, with a current emphasis on high-quality businesses [1] - There is a particular interest in big tech companies that have extensive user bases and content libraries, highlighting the potential for cross-selling opportunities [1] Valuation Approach - The preferred valuation method is at the EBIT plus R&D level, reflecting a belief in the potential of certain R&D investments [1] Performance Metrics - The annual return from February 2019 to October 2024 is reported at 11.4% CAGR, which is below the market's 15.18% CAGR, indicating a need for improved performance [1] - The investment philosophy aims to minimize portfolio turnover, suggesting that most profits will come from holding existing investments rather than frequent trading [1] Investment Philosophy - The company does not endorse traditional "Buy" and "Sell" recommendations, instead advocating for a "Strong Buy" threshold for exceptional businesses, with everything else categorized as "Strong Sell" to free up capital for new opportunities [1] - A "Hold" position may be initiated for high-quality businesses if their pricing is not favorable [1]

Summary of ZTE Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: ZTE Corporation (0763.HK) - **Industry**: Telecommunications and AI Infrastructure Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - ZTE's server and storage revenues increased by **200% YoY** in 1H25, with AI servers contributing **55%** of total revenues [1][2] - Projected **3Q25 revenues** are expected to grow **26% YoY**, compared to **21% YoY** in 2Q25, with a gross margin stabilizing at **31%** [1] - Estimated **net income** for 3Q25 is projected to be **Rmb2.4 billion**, reflecting a **12% YoY** growth [1] Market Position and Growth Drivers - ZTE is positioned as a major beneficiary in the telecom and enterprise AI data center market, supplying GPU servers, general servers, storage, and networking cards [2] - Recent procurement wins include: - **Rmb3 billion** general server procurement from ICBC [2] - **Rmb1.9 billion** PC server procurement from China Mobile [2] - **Rmb5 billion** AI inferencing server procurement from China Mobile [2] - The demand for AI and general computing infrastructure in China is increasing, with ZTE benefiting from comprehensive product lines and long-term customer relationships [2] Capital Expenditure Trends - Chinese Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) are expected to increase capital expenditures by **65%** in 2025, **20%** in 2026, and **9%** in 2027 [2][8] Earnings Revisions - 2026-27E net income estimates have been revised up by **1%** and **2%** respectively due to higher revenue expectations [11] - Revenue estimates for 2026E and 2027E have been increased by **1%** and **2%** respectively [11] Valuation and Price Target - The 12-month target price for ZTE's H-shares has been raised by **14%** to **HK$43.6**, reflecting a market re-rating of AI infrastructure players [1][12] - The target P/E multiple for H-shares is now **19.2x**, up from **17.0x** [11] - The 12-month target price for A-shares is raised by **13.6%** to **Rmb67.6** [12] Risks and Considerations - Key risks include faster or slower-than-expected demand in telecom infrastructure and potential non-operating gains or losses that could impact earnings estimates [22] Revenue Mix - ZTE is seeing an increasing contribution from non-telecom business segments, indicating diversification in revenue sources [13] Additional Important Information - The company maintains a **Neutral rating** due to fair valuation despite positive growth outlook [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of considering ZTE's normal earnings power without factoring in non-operating items, which have historically varied significantly [22]

Economic Indicators - China's aggregate financing for September reached 30.09 trillion CNY, exceeding the estimated 29.905 trillion CNY and the previous month's 26.556 trillion CNY, indicating stronger-than-expected credit expansion [3][8] - New yuan loans for September were 14.750 trillion CNY, slightly below the estimated 14.919 trillion CNY but an increase from the prior month's 13.459 trillion CNY [3][8] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.4% year-over-year, slightly missing the 8.5% estimate and down from the previous 8.8% [4] - M1 money supply saw a robust increase of 7.2% year-over-year, exceeding the 6.1% estimate and the previous 6.0% [4][8] - M0 money supply rose by 11.5% year-over-year, matching the previous month's growth [4] U.S. Government Shutdown - The U.S. federal government is in its 15th day of shutdown due to a failure to pass appropriations legislation for the 2026 fiscal year, resulting in furloughs for approximately 900,000 federal employees and 700,000 working without pay [5][8] European Telecommunications Sector - Altice France rejected a €17 billion ($19.7 billion) bid from a consortium led by Bouygues for its SFR mobile unit, highlighting ongoing challenges in the French telecom market [6][8] UK Financial Regulation Changes - The UK's financial regulators announced plans to cut the bonus deferral period for senior bankers from eight to four years, effective October 16, 2025, aiming to enhance competitiveness and align with other jurisdictions [9][8] European Defense Initiatives - The European Union is advancing a military plan for 2026, focusing on drone and air defense projects amidst rising security concerns and a push for increased industrial integration [7][8]

Core Insights - Bharti Airtel has partnered with IBM to enhance its cloud services, responding to the growing demand for cloud computing solutions [1][2] - The collaboration will enable Airtel Cloud customers to utilize IBM's AI-ready servers, particularly benefiting regulated sectors like banking, healthcare, and government [2] - Two new Multizone Regions (MZRs) will be established in Mumbai and Chennai to ensure secure and uninterrupted cloud operations [3] Company Developments - Airtel Cloud was launched by Bharti Airtel's digital unit Xtelify in August, marking a significant step in the company's digital transformation [2] - The partnership with IBM is part of a broader strategy to expand Airtel's cloud offerings and improve service reliability [1][2] Industry Trends - The demand for cloud computing services is on the rise, prompting telecom operators like Bharti Airtel to enhance their service portfolios [1] - IBM is actively expanding its AI capabilities through various partnerships, indicating a trend towards integrating AI in cloud services [4] - Google is also investing heavily in AI infrastructure in India, highlighting the competitive landscape in the cloud and AI sectors [5]

Core Insights - The logistics sector has seen significant engagement from investors, particularly in the ASEAN and US markets, highlighting its growth potential and diversification opportunities [1] - The popularity of insurance companies in the Philippines since 2014 indicates a shift in investment strategies among local investors, moving towards a more diversified portfolio [1] - The trend of investing in blue-chip companies has evolved, with investors now holding a mix of stocks across various industries and market capitalizations, reflecting a more strategic approach to retirement and trading profits [1] Industry Focus - The banking sector remains a key area of investment, with holdings in both the Philippine and US markets, showcasing its stability and growth prospects [1] - The telecommunications industry is also a significant focus for investors, indicating its importance in the overall market landscape [1] - The hotel and logistics sectors are gaining traction, with investments reflecting confidence in their recovery and growth post-pandemic [1] Market Engagement - The entry into the US market has been a strategic move for investors, allowing for broader exposure and opportunities in diverse sectors such as banks, hotels, and logistics [1] - The use of analytical platforms like Seeking Alpha has enhanced the ability to compare market trends and investment opportunities between the US and Philippine markets [1]

Core Insights - The communication services sector has several oversold stocks, presenting potential buying opportunities for undervalued companies [1][2] Company Summaries - **Amber International Holding Ltd (NASDAQ:AMBR)**: Reported a year-over-year increase in Q2 sales, with total revenue reaching $21.0 million, driven by a record revenue of $11.5 million in wealth management. The stock has fallen approximately 44% over the past month, with an RSI of 23.5 and a closing price of $2.44 [8] - **Verizon Communications Inc (NYSE:VZ)**: Announced a commercial agreement with AST SpaceMobile for direct-to-cellular connectivity starting in 2026. The stock has decreased around 9% over the past month, with an RSI of 23.9 and a closing price of $39.75 [8] - **Criteo SA (NASDAQ:CRTO)**: Entered a multi-year partnership with DoorDash to enhance advertising opportunities. The stock has declined about 10% over the past month, with an RSI of 25.1 and a closing price of $19.65 [8]

Core Insights - The communication services sector has several oversold stocks, presenting potential buying opportunities for undervalued companies [1][2] Company Summaries - **Amber International Holding Ltd (NASDAQ:AMBR)**: Reported a year-over-year increase in Q2 sales, with total revenue reaching $21.0 million, driven by a record revenue of $11.5 million in wealth management. The stock has fallen approximately 44% over the past month, with an RSI of 23.5 and a closing price of $2.44 [8] - **Verizon Communications Inc (NYSE:VZ)**: Announced a commercial agreement with AST SpaceMobile for direct-to-cellular connectivity starting in 2026. The stock has decreased around 9% over the past month, with an RSI of 23.9 and a closing price of $39.75 [8] - **Criteo SA (NASDAQ:CRTO)**: Entered a multi-year partnership with DoorDash to enhance advertising opportunities. The stock has fallen about 10% over the past month, with an RSI of 25.1 and a closing price of $19.65 [8]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent shift in U.S. President Trump's stance on tariffs against China, which has led to renewed investor confidence and market gains [2][3]. Market Reactions - Following Trump's comments, the S&P 500 increased by +1.56%, while the Dow and Nasdaq rose by +1.2% and +2.2% respectively, indicating a positive market response [3]. - ASX futures are pointing to a +0.25% advance, suggesting a similar positive sentiment in the Australian market [3]. U.S.-China Relations - Despite the market optimism, tensions between the U.S. and China remain unresolved, particularly with China's rare earths curbs still in place [4]. Company Highlights - Telstra (ASX:TLS) is expected to make headlines during its AGM, where CEO Vicki Brady will address recent developments involving Australian telco leaders [5]. - ANZ Group (ASX:ANZ) is undergoing a transformation under new CEO Nuno Matos, aiming to surpass NAB (ASX:NAB) and Westpac (ASX:WBC) in the 'big four' hierarchy by 2030 [5]. - Toro Energy (ASX:TOE) saw a significant increase of +39% on news of a potential buyout by IsoEnergy [6]. - Kula Gold (ASX:KGD) has received a bid implementation deed from Forrestania Resources (ASX:FRS) for the acquisition of its shares [6]. Commodity Prices - The Australian dollar is trading at 65.1 U.S. cents [7]. - Iron Ore prices increased by +1.4% to $106.50 per tonne, Brent Crude rose by +1.9% to $63.39 per barrel, and Gold remains high at $4,127 per ounce [7].