编者按 2025年，全球石油和化工行业普遍面临高能源成本、需求受限和产能大幅扩张的严重冲击，各 子行业的日子都不好过。同时，行业还面临着低碳转型、智能化转型的巨大压力。在这样的背景下， 2026年国际细分市场和领域发展趋势如何，值得关注。对此，今日起推出《2026国际石化市场展望》系 列报道，集合业界对聚氯乙烯、石脑油等多个细分市场的预测展望，以飨读者。 其他区域市场呈现明显分化。欧洲市场涌现谨慎乐观情绪，俄乌和平谈判取得进展，若达成正式协议， 战后重建将拉动PVC需求;德国政府承诺未来12年投入3000亿欧元用于基础设施建设，进一步为需求增 长提供支撑。巴西市场则表现复杂，尽管失业率处于历史低位、居民收入提升带动房地产项目开工量逆 势增长，但近月PVC需求仍存不确定性。因巴西对美国PVC加征反倾销税，并维持对亚洲的关税壁垒， 使巴西PVC需求方被迫转向哥伦比亚、阿根廷和埃及等关税豁免国采购，上述三国已成为其最大供应来 源。 美国PVC出口则面临多重关税阻力：欧盟自2026年1月起对美国PVC征收58%至77%的确定性反倾销 税，导致其产品丧失竞争力;墨西哥政府也已启动对美国悬浮法PVC的反倾销调查。尽管关税 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the issuance of the "Priority Control Chemical List (Third Batch)" by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment and the National Health Commission, emphasizing the importance of managing new pollutants to protect ecological and public health [1][2] - The list aims to prioritize the management of chemical substances that pose significant environmental and health risks, serving as a foundational support for managing toxic pollutants in water, air, and soil [2][3] - The compilation of the list involved a comprehensive assessment of chemical substances based on their inherent hazards, potential exposure levels, and international control measures, focusing on high-risk chemicals such as persistent, bioaccumulative, and toxic substances [2][3] Group 2 - The list includes 23 categories of chemical substances, such as 1,1,2,2-tetrachloroethane and bisphenol A, which are recognized as carcinogens and endocrine disruptors, affecting various industries including petrochemicals, plastics, and pharmaceuticals [3][4] - Companies producing or using the listed chemicals are encouraged to enhance their environmental risk management practices, including upgrading processes and controlling emissions, to mitigate potential risks [4][5] - Current management of the chemicals in the list is based on existing regulations regarding environmental impact assessments, pollution permits, and soil and groundwater pollution prevention [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment and the National Health Commission have jointly issued the "Priority Control Chemical List (Third Batch)" to enhance the management of new pollutants and protect ecological and public health [2][5]. Group 1: Background and Purpose - The issuance of the list is part of a broader initiative by the Chinese government to address new pollutant management, as emphasized in various party meetings and documents, aiming for effective environmental risk control by 2035 [2]. - The list aims to provide foundational support for managing environmental risks associated with toxic pollutants in water, air, and soil, while also raising awareness among the public and enterprises regarding the environmental and health hazards of chemical substances [3]. Group 2: Compilation Process - The compilation of the list involved a comprehensive assessment of chemical substances based on their inherent hazards, potential exposure levels, and international control measures, focusing on high-risk chemicals such as persistent, bioaccumulative, and toxic substances [3][4]. - The process adhered to an "openness" principle, soliciting public opinions and conducting expert consultations to ensure a wide range of inputs were considered [4]. Group 3: Included Chemicals - The list includes 23 categories of chemical substances, such as carcinogens and endocrine disruptors, affecting various industries including petrochemicals, plastics, pharmaceuticals, and textiles [5]. - Notably, some high-concern persistent organic pollutants were not included in the list, indicating a need for compliance with existing environmental management regulations for new chemical substances [5]. Group 4: Management Requirements - The issuance of the list provides a framework for companies to proactively manage environmental risks associated with the listed chemicals, encouraging practices such as process upgrades and the development of environmentally friendly alternatives [6]. - Current management of the listed chemicals is guided by various regulations, including environmental impact assessments and pollution discharge permits [6][7].

摘要：【图】2025年1-8月广东省初级形态的塑料产量数据分析 2025年1-8月初级形态的塑料产量分析： 据国家统计局数据，在2025年的前8个月，广东省规模以上工业企业初级形态的塑料产量累计达到了 847.4万吨，与2024年同期的数据相比，增长了25.2%，增速较2024年同期低6.0个百分点，增速放缓， 增速较同期全国高13.6个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业初级形态的塑料产量9707.30625万吨的比 重为8.7%。 单独看2025年8月份，广东省规模以上工业企业初级形态的塑料产量达到了117.4万吨，与2024年同期的 数据相比，8月份的产量增长了32.7%，增速较2024年同期高11.0个百分点，继续保持快速增长，增速较 同期全国高19.9个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业初级形态的塑料产量1265.70537万吨的比重为 9.3%。 图表：广东省初级形态的塑料产量分月（当月值）统计 图表：广东省初级形态的塑料产量分月（累计值）统计 2025年8月初级形态的塑料产量分析： 注：初级形态的塑料2004年及以前名称为塑料树脂及共聚物，简称塑料。 从2011年起，我国规模以上工业企业起点标准由原来 ...

摘要：【图】2025年1-9月陕西省初级形态的塑料产量统计分析 2025年1-9月初级形态的塑料产量分析： 据国家统计局数据，在2025年的前9个月，陕西省规模以上工业企业初级形态的塑料产量累计达到了 629.1万吨，与2024年同期的数据相比，增长了6.7%，增速较2024年同期高5.2个百分点，继续保持增 长，增速较同期全国低4.9个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业初级形态的塑料产量10970.31113万吨 的比重为5.7%。 图表：陕西省初级形态的塑料产量分月（累计值）统计 2025年9月初级形态的塑料产量分析： 单独看2025年9月份，陕西省规模以上工业企业初级形态的塑料产量达到了72.7万吨，与2024年同期的 数据相比，9月份的产量增长了7.0%，增速较2024年同期低3.0个百分点，增速放缓，增速较同期全国低 3.4个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业初级形态的塑料产量1266.54696万吨的比重为5.7%。 图表：陕西省初级形态的塑料产量分月（当月值）统计 产业调研网为您提供更多 注：初级形态的塑料2004年及以前名称为塑料树脂及共聚物，简称塑料。 从2011年起，我国规模以上工业企业起点标 ...

Price Trends - The domestic PC market showed weak performance at the end of December, with most spot prices at low levels. As of December 31, the benchmark price for PC was approximately 13,233.33 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year price change of -5.15% [3]. Supply Analysis - At the end of December, the overall operating rate of domestic PC polymer enterprises showed slight increases. Although some production lines in Zhejiang Petrochemical were undergoing maintenance, one production unit resumed operations, and the average industry operating rate recovered to nearly 78%, with weekly output exceeding 65,000 tons. Despite efforts from polymer plants to support prices, the large supply base for basic grades led to renewed sales pressure in the market. Overall, the supply side provided limited support for PC prices [4]. Raw Material Insights - The domestic Bisphenol A market shifted from a prolonged low period to an upward trend in December, driven by supply contraction, marginal demand improvement, and strengthened cost support. Prices steadily increased from early in the month, with traders showing strong price support sentiment and a significantly improved trading atmosphere, which positively impacted the cost support for PC [6]. Demand Factors - The profitability of end-user enterprises has weakened, leading to suboptimal operating rates for downstream PC factories. Inventory strategies remained cautious, with buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach and reducing total order volumes before the holiday. The response from e-commerce and overseas markets for finished products was average, and end-user production schedules were conservative. Overall, the demand side provided insufficient support for PC spot prices [6]. Market Outlook - By the end of December, the domestic PC market was in a low-level consolidation phase. Although the upstream Bisphenol A market turned positive throughout the month, the cost support for PC remained limited. The operating rates of domestic PC polymer plants showed minor fluctuations, with limited maintenance news expected in the future. The trading atmosphere in the market was subdued, and short-term downward pressure on PC prices is anticipated [7].

Core Insights - In 2025, nearly 80% of A-shares (4,230 stocks) experienced annual gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 18.41% and 2,921 stocks outperforming the market [1][4] - A total of 540 stocks doubled in price, and 10 stocks saw gains exceeding 500%, becoming "wealth creation machines" for investors [1][4] Top Gainers - The top gainer, Shangwei New Materials, surged by 1,820.29%, followed by Tianpu Co., which rose by 1,645.35%. Both companies benefited from restructuring and acquisition activities [2][5] - Shangwei New Materials had 16 trading halts, while Tianpu Co. had 33, indicating strong market interest [2][5] Controversial Stocks - *ST Yushun and *ST Yezhen, both under delisting risk warnings, achieved remarkable gains of 719% and 637%, respectively. This volatility is viewed as speculative behavior by investors [3][6] - *ST Yushun recorded 70 trading halts, the highest in A-shares, while *ST Yezhen had 65 [3][6] Other Notable Performers - The remaining stocks in the top 10, including Shenghong Technology, Feiwo Technology, Filinger, Ding Tai High-Tech, Hengbo Co., and Shunhao Co., saw annual gains between 500% and 600% [3][6] - Shenghong Technology's 586% increase was driven by the expansion of the AI server market, with a 324% rise in net profit for the first three quarters [3][6] - Feiwo Technology, a leader in wind power fasteners, benefited from the booming commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy, achieving a 581% increase [3][6] - Shunhao Co. entered the commercial aerospace sector through a 1.1 billion yuan acquisition, resulting in a 507% stock price increase [3][6] Industry Distribution - The top 10 gainers represented a diverse range of industries, including plastics, automotive parts, optical electronics, household goods, wind power equipment, and packaging [4][7]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided regarding the industry's investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Bullish on the equity market during the "Spring Rally". With the expected strengthening of underlying stocks and seasonal effects, there is a slight room for convertible bond valuations to increase. When selecting bonds, focus on the performance elasticity of the underlying stocks. For near - maturity convertible bonds, consider participating in the underlying stocks [27]. - In the stock market, in December 2025, the risk appetite was high. Looking ahead, the RMB appreciation expectation is strengthening, and with the end of the year - end ranking assessment of financial institutions, the "Spring Rally" is expected to gradually kick off. In January, if the market adjusts during the intensive performance forecast period, investors can buy on dips and focus on resources, AI computing power, batteries, polyester industry chain, AI edge devices, and securities [27]. - In the convertible bond market, in December 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index reached a new high since July 2015. Although the share of convertible bond ETFs continued to decline, the market premium rate increased. In the future, due to seasonal effects, some institutional investors may gradually increase their positions in January, and convertible bond valuations have a slight room for improvement [27]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 2025 December Convertible Bond Market Review - **Stock and Bond Market Review**: In December, the equity market fluctuated upwards, and the bond market generally fluctuated. The Shanghai Composite Index rose for nearly 10 consecutive trading days in the middle and late - December, closing at 3963.68 on December 26, with a monthly increase of 1.27%. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.838% on December 26, up 0.10bp from the beginning of the month, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 2.223%, up 3.32bp from the beginning of the month [4][8]. - **Convertible Bond Market Review**: The convertible bond market generally rose following the equity market. The premium rates of convertible bonds in all parity ranges increased, but convertible bond ETFs continued to face outflow pressure. Five convertible bonds announced downward revisions, one more than the previous month, and 10 convertible bonds announced forced redemptions, two less than the previous month. The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 493.2 on December 26, up 2.31% [5][8]. - **Industry Performance**: In the Shenwan industry classification, sectors such as national defense and military industry (+12.25%), communication (+10.55%), and non - bank finance (+8.27%) performed well, while sectors such as media (-4.77%), banks (-3.68%), and coal (-3.62%) declined [8]. 3.2 2026 January Convertible Bond Allocation Strategy - **Stock Market Outlook**: The RMB appreciation expectation is strengthening, and the "Spring Rally" is expected to start. In January, if the market adjusts during the performance forecast period, investors can buy on dips. Focus on resources, AI computing power, batteries, polyester industry chain, AI edge devices, and securities [27]. - **Convertible Bond Outlook**: Due to seasonal effects, some institutions may increase their positions in January. Convertible bond valuations have a slight room for improvement. When selecting bonds, relative - return funds should focus on high - probability sectors with a high - beta underlying stocks, and absolute - return funds should focus on high - odds sectors [27][28]. - **Bond Selection Suggestions**: For relative - return funds, focus on sectors such as lithium - battery materials, semiconductor equipment and materials, power semiconductors, high - quality auto parts, anti - involution industries, and securities. For absolute - return funds, focus on industry leaders with low valuations, sectors such as pig farming, power, and water supply, and convertible bond debt - to - equity conversion [28]. 3.3 2026 January "Top Ten Convertible Bonds" Portfolio | Convertible Bond Code | Convertible Bond Name | Underlying Stock Name | Industry | Balance (Billion Yuan) | Convertible Bond Price (Yuan) | Convertible Bond Parity (Yuan) | Conversion Premium Rate (%) | Rating | Recommendation Reason | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 113043.SH | Caitong Convertible Bond | Caitong Securities | Securities II | 37.99 | 133.52 | 109.71 | 21.70 | AAA | The securities sector will see a double - hit of valuation and profit in a bull market [30]. | | 123254.SZ | EVE Convertible Bond | EVE Energy | Battery | 49.98 | 167.64 | 134.65 | 24.51 | AA+ | The demand for energy storage is strong, and the shipment volume in the third quarter increased significantly year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter [30]. | | 113695.SH | Huachen Convertible Bond | Jiangsu Huachen | Power Grid Equipment | 4.60 | 160.16 | 122.10 | 31.17 | A+ | The company's new production capacity is put into operation just as the demand for energy storage is growing rapidly [30]. | | 113634.SH | Proya Convertible Bond | Proya | Cosmetics | 7.51 | 125.13 | 70.36 | 77.83 | AA | As a domestic beauty leader, its brand and product strength are outstanding, and its valuation at a historical low is expected to be restored [30]. | | 113616.SH | Will Semiconductor Convertible Bond | Will Semiconductor | Semiconductor | 24.32 | 124.07 | 78.35 | 58.36 | AA+ | The company is accelerating its introduction into intelligent driving and emerging markets and has launched new mobile phone products with strong competitiveness [30]. | | 118040.SH | Hongwei Convertible Bond | Hongwei Technology | Semiconductor | 4.30 | 149.72 | 116.17 | 28.88 | A | Power semiconductors benefit from the growth of power supply and energy storage demand [30]. | | 113674.SH | Huashe Convertible Bond | Huashe Group | Engineering Consulting Service II | 4.00 | 129.29 | 89.47 | 44.51 | AA | As a leader in infrastructure design, its main business is stabilizing, and intelligent design and low - altitude economy provide growth points [30]. | | 123222.SZ | Bojun Convertible Bond | Bojun Technology | Auto Parts | 2.44 | 224.63 | 194.72 | 15.36 | A+ | The growth of customer sales and the increase in ASP per vehicle drive up revenue and profit [30]. | | 113666.SH | Aima Convertible Bond | Aima Technology | Motorcycle and Others | 19.99 | 125.11 | 79.63 | 57.12 | AA | The new national standard may promote the market share of the two - wheeled vehicle leader [30]. | | 123247.SZ | Wankai Convertible Bond | Wankai New Materials | Plastics | 19.64 | 172.30 | 150.18 | 14.73 | AA | Under the "anti - involution" of bottle chips, the processing fee is expected to stabilize, and the company is entering the rPET blue - ocean market [30]. |

Core Insights - The production of primary plastic shapes in Jiangsu Province reached 9.776 million tons in the first nine months of 2025, marking a 7.4% increase compared to the same period in 2024, although the growth rate has slowed by 0.3 percentage points from 2024 and is 4.2 percentage points lower than the national average [1] - In September 2025, the production of primary plastic shapes in Jiangsu was 1.108 million tons, reflecting a 6.4% increase year-on-year, with a slowdown of 0.5 percentage points compared to September 2024, and 4.0 percentage points lower than the national growth rate [2] Summary by Category Production Data - In the first nine months of 2025, Jiangsu's primary plastic production accounted for 8.9% of the national total of 10,970.31 million tons [1] - The September 2025 production represented 8.7% of the national total of 1,266.55 million tons for that month [2] Growth Trends - The growth rate of plastic production in Jiangsu for the first nine months of 2025 is lower than both the previous year and the national average [1] - The September 2025 growth rate also shows a decline compared to the same month in 2024, indicating a trend of slowing growth in the sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - Huaxin New Materials Co., Ltd. has shown a positive stock performance with a 1% increase, reaching a share price of 19.15 yuan, and a total market capitalization of 1.968 billion yuan as of December 31 [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Huaxin New Materials, established on June 6, 2000, is located in Xinyi City, Jiangsu Province, and was listed on November 6, 2017 [1] - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of functional plastic film materials, with 99.07% of its main business revenue coming from smart card substrates [1] Group 2: Shareholder Information - CITIC Prudential Fund's multi-strategy mixed fund (LOF) A (165531) has entered the top ten circulating shareholders of Huaxin New Materials, holding 437,400 shares, which is 0.43% of the circulating shares [2] - The fund has achieved a year-to-date return of 44.87%, ranking 1595 out of 8085 in its category, and a one-year return of 42.61%, ranking 1567 out of 8085 [2] - The fund manager, Wang Ying, has been in position for 8 years and 321 days, with a total fund asset size of 4.904 billion yuan [2]