温晗静 中金公司科技硬件分析师: 那我是中金公司科技硬件组分析师温涵静，欢迎大家在每周日的晚上 8:30 来参加我们的 电子掘金会议。我们这周的主题，还是聚焦在两个方面吧。一方面是聚焦在大家比较关心 的，最近波动比较大的这个海外算力链。另一方面，可能更多的会聚焦在近期大家比较关 心的这个光模块，包括 CPU 的一些话题上。所以我们今天的汇报也会分成这两个部分。 那在第一个部分海外算力的部分，会由我和同事佳彤一起向各位汇报一下近期围绕算力定 的一些分歧。一方面我们看到海内外的这个模型其实是在加速发布的，不管是说海外的新 的这个模型，以及世界模型等等。 另外一方面，国内包括像，C 这其他的一些国内的这个外卖大战，包括所谓的这个 AI 的 变化还是比较多的。但是从另一方面来讲，我们看到上周的这个美股的市场也是有一个巨 幅的波动。那随着算力链的公司财报陆续发布，其实我们也看到了很多的这个 CSP 的资本 开支的继续上修。那在这样的一个分歧比较大的情况下，我们还是去聚焦在对海外算力链 的一个关注上，去汇报一下我们的基本的观点。首先从上周的整个的海外算力链的波动的 角度来看的话，目前我们看到大家没有一个一致的这个答案，可 ...

Summary of Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference primarily focused on the optical communication industry, particularly the developments in optical modules and related technologies [1][4]. - There is ongoing debate regarding the adoption and impact of new technologies such as CPUs, NPUs, and OBOs within the industry [2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Market Dynamics**: The optical module market is expected to perform better than other sectors, with leading companies currently valued at around 15 times earnings, indicating a potential for rapid valuation recovery [4][5]. - **Order Trends**: Despite recent controversies surrounding CPUs, the demand for detachable optical modules remains strong, with expectations of significant growth in 2027 [5][6]. - **Long-term Contracts**: Companies are increasingly locking in long-term contracts for materials, with some suppliers securing agreements for 2-3 years, reflecting robust demand exceeding supply [6][7]. - **Technological Evolution**: The industry is experiencing a shift in packaging methods, with advancements in materials and designs leading to new product offerings, such as 1.6T and future 3.2T modules [2][3]. - **Fragmented Information**: Analysts noted that discussions around CPUs often lead to polarized views due to fragmented information, emphasizing the need for a clearer understanding of the technology's applications [7][8]. Additional Important Insights - **Production Challenges**: The production efficiency and yield rates of new technologies, particularly in the context of CPUs and optical modules, remain critical concerns that could impact large-scale deployment [17][19]. - **Evolving Architectures**: The conference highlighted the importance of understanding new network architectures and their implications for optical module usage, suggesting that the industry is moving towards more complex configurations [20][21]. - **Competitive Landscape**: Established companies with a strong technological foundation are likely to have a competitive advantage in the evolving market, while new entrants may struggle to gain traction without significant innovation [22][23]. Conclusion - The conference provided a comprehensive overview of the current state and future prospects of the optical communication industry, emphasizing the importance of understanding technological advancements, market dynamics, and production challenges to make informed investment decisions [23].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the active performance of optical fiber and CPO-related hardware stocks, with significant trading volume and price increases observed in the communication ETF (515050) [1] - New Yi Sheng announced its capability for mass production and delivery of optical modules at 800G and above, including the successful production of the latest 1.6T optical module, with ongoing development for next-generation products [1] - CITIC Securities noted the acceleration of CPO development, with Lumentum reporting several hundred million dollars in CPO-related orders, projecting CPO revenue of approximately $50 million by Q4 2026 and a significant increase in H1 2027 [1] Group 2 - The communication ETF (515050) focuses on electronic and communication hardware, with top holdings including Zhongji Xuchuang, New Yi Sheng, and Lixun Precision [2] - The AI ETF (159381) has a balanced allocation between the optical module CPO sector and AI software applications, with major holdings such as Zhongji Xuchuang and New Yi Sheng [2] - The AI ETF features a low comprehensive fee rate of only 0.20%, making it competitive within its category [2]

Core Viewpoint - The CPO sector has experienced significant growth, with leading company Changfei Fiber (601869) hitting a new historical high and achieving a two-day consecutive limit-up in stock price, reflecting strong market interest and performance in the optical module industry [1][4]. Company Performance - Changfei Fiber's stock opened at 198.37 CNY, reached a high of 211.48 CNY, and closed at 211.48 CNY, marking a 10% increase [2][5]. - The trading volume for Changfei Fiber exceeded 20 billion CNY, with a total market capitalization of 175.1 billion CNY [1][4]. - Other companies in the CPO sector also saw significant gains, with Jiepte rising nearly 10%, Hengtong Optic-Electric increasing by nearly 7%, and Zhongfu Circuit and Tiantong shares rising over 4% [1][4][6]. Industry Trends - The recent surge in the optical module market is driven by technological upgrades and increasing demand, particularly in AI data centers [4][7]. - Tower Semiconductor's collaboration with NVIDIA to develop advanced silicon photonics technology for AI data centers is a key development, indicating a new growth phase in data center interconnectivity [4][7]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's announcement on February 6 regarding the construction of national computing power interconnection nodes is expected to further enhance the infrastructure supporting the optical module market [6][7].

Market Performance - The new stock index and the near-term new stock index fell by 2.01% and 2.23% respectively during the first week of February 2026[7] - The market experienced significant adjustments, with the technology sector leading the decline, particularly in the non-ferrous metals and electronic sectors[7] New Stock Listings - The first unprofitable new stock of the year, Beixin Life, was listed, achieving an average first-day increase of 185.65%[1] - Two new stocks contributed to A1/A2/B class investors' single-account full returns of 17.80/9.44/7.90 thousand yuan, enhancing the yield rates for 500 million scale accounts by 0.36‰/0.19‰/0.16‰[41] Trading Activity - Trading activity in the new stock sector continued to decline, with turnover rates for the new stock index and near-term new stock index dropping by 2.10 percentage points and 2.25 percentage points respectively[21] - The net active selling in the new stock sector was 2.936 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.540 billion yuan from the previous week[23] Valuation Changes - The new stock index PE (TTM) increased by 1.76, while the near-term new stock index PE (TTM) decreased by 23.73[14] - The latest PE (TTM) values for the new stock index and near-term new stock index were 80.0X and 159.7X, corresponding to historical percentile levels of 83.8% and 99.2% respectively[14] Upcoming Unlocks - In the second week of February, three new stocks are expected to unlock, with a total unlock scale of 254 million yuan, maintaining low levels[35]

Core Insights - The A-share market has shown a strong rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 4100 points, driven by positive sentiment from overseas markets and significant gains in technology stocks, particularly in the photovoltaic sector and AI applications [3][9] - Despite the current market enthusiasm, the sustainability of these trends is uncertain, indicating potential volatility in the post-holiday period [3][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on structural opportunities, suggesting that investors should actively seek quality stocks during market fluctuations before the holiday and consider small-cap growth stocks with clear industrial catalysts afterward [3][9] Market Overview - On the first trading day of the last week before the Spring Festival, the A-share market opened strongly, with the ChiNext Index rising over 3% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by more than 2% [4] - The trading volume for the day reached 22,495 billion yuan, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4123.09 points, up 1.41% [5] - Various sectors performed well, including cultural media, photovoltaic equipment, and software development, while sectors like mining saw declines [4][5] Sector Analysis - The AI theme has been particularly active, with significant gains in AI-related stocks such as AI corpus and ChatGPT, indicating a strong performance outlook for the sector in 2026 [6] - The report highlights that the AI sector is transitioning from computational investment to application and end-side deployment, creating new investment opportunities in areas like computing power and AI applications [6] - The renewable energy sector, particularly photovoltaic equipment and batteries, is also gaining momentum, supported by ongoing global efforts to achieve carbon neutrality and favorable government policies [7] Future Market Outlook - The report suggests that the A-share market is entering a substantive phase of the Spring Festival rally, supported by economic resilience and industry benefits, despite potential short-term fluctuations [3][9] - Investors are advised to focus on structural opportunities and to be cautious of high-valuation stocks lacking performance support, as the market may shift from broad-based gains to structural differentiation [6][7]

Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on **炬光科技 (Juguang Technology)**, a company operating in the **optical communication** and **semiconductor** sectors, with a particular emphasis on its **OCS (Optical Communication Systems)** business segment [1][2]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Valuation Breakdown**: The company’s valuation is segmented as follows: - Plug-and-play modules: €60-70 million - OCS: €100-120 million - CPO (Chip-on-Board): €150 million - Other businesses: €100 million - Total estimated valuation: €450 million [1] - **Market Potential**: The total addressable market (TAM) for the industry in 2027 is projected to be €60-70 million. Assuming a 15% market share, this translates to a net profit of €2-3 million, leading to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 20-25x, resulting in a valuation of €60-70 million [1]. - **Comparative Valuation**: Compared to other OCS companies, Juguang Technology is considered relatively undervalued. Other OCS companies are typically valued based on their end-state estimates, with projections for 2030 estimating 300,000 OCS units. If Juguang captures a 30% market share, with a unit value of €12,000-€13,000 and a net profit margin of 30%, this could yield profits of €3-4 million, leading to a valuation of approximately €100-120 million at a PE of 25-30x [1]. - **Competitive Landscape**: The competitive environment may be better than expected, with the market not fully pricing in the potential for scaling up. The company is well-positioned in the "out" domain and is expected to have similar potential in the "up" domain [1]. - **Profit Projections**: - For the "out" domain, with a forecast of 100,000 units in 2027, a unit value of €50,000, a 20% market share, and a 30% net profit margin, the projected profit is €3 million, leading to a valuation of €120 million at a PE of 40x [2]. - For 2030, with a forecast of 300,000 units and a unit value of €40,000, the projected profit is €7-8 million, resulting in a valuation of €150 million at a PE of 20x [2]. - **Stability in Related Industries**: Traditional industrial and semiconductor sectors are stabilizing, with automotive applications and healthcare growing at around 10%. Consumer electronics are expected to start contributing to revenue from Q3 2026 [2]. - **M&A Impact**: The negative impact of mergers and acquisitions is expected to diminish, with the SMO production line successfully relocated from Switzerland to Shaoguan, achieving profitability. The Heptagon acquisition is anticipated to break even within 6-8 quarters post-acquisition [2]. - **Market Sentiment and Performance**: The current market sentiment is cautious regarding the company's performance. However, the presence of CPO beta is expected to provide ongoing support for the stock price. The period before April is seen as relatively safe, with expectations of increased revenue from optical communications in the second half of the year, which could lead to profitability [2]. Additional Important Points - **Investment Strategy**: The suggested trading strategy involves buying during significant dips and smaller dips, with opportunities arising from daily long lower shadows or short-term corrections. Continuous monitoring and attention are recommended [3].

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a general rise in CPO concept stocks, with notable increases in several companies' stock prices [1] - Changfei Fiber Optics experienced an increase of over 8%, while Jepu Te rose by 5% [1] - Other companies such as Tiantong Co., Guangxun Technology, and Ruijie Networks saw stock price increases of over 4% [1] Group 2 - Detailed stock performance includes: - Changfei Leishe (601869) with an 8.37% increase and a total market value of 172.5 billion, year-to-date increase of 79.06% [2] - Jepu Te (688025) with a 5.08% increase and a market value of 21.2 billion, year-to-date increase of 57.91% [2] - Tiantong Co. (600330) with a 4.81% increase and a market value of 22 billion, year-to-date increase of 36.10% [2] - Guangxun Technology (002281) with a 4.34% increase and a market value of 59 billion, year-to-date increase of 4.49% [2] - Ruijie Networks (301165) with a 4.01% increase and a market value of 63.8 billion, year-to-date decrease of 9.72% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shijia Photon, has a diversified main business that includes optical chips and devices, indoor optical cables, and polymer materials for cables, indicating a stable revenue stream and growth potential in the optical communication sector [1] Business Segments - The indoor optical cable business accounts for 15.37% of the company's main business revenue according to the 2025 semi-annual report, highlighting its significance in the overall business model [1] - The company sources the optical fibers required for its indoor optical cable business from external suppliers, which suggests a reliance on third-party vendors for critical components [1] - A mature supply chain management system has been established by the company, which, along with refined cost control measures, ensures stable operational development [1]

Group 1: Precision Medicine and Robotics - The report highlights Jingfeng Medical-B as a leader in surgical robotics in China, driving advancements in surgical procedures through continuous technological innovation, with rapid growth in global clinical surgeries and domestic sales [2][3] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 432 million, 811 million, and 1.236 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with a target price of 73.20 yuan for 2026 based on a 35X PS valuation [3] - Jingfeng Medical has established a comprehensive surgical solution with its innovative multi-port and single-port robotic systems, becoming the first in China and the second globally to obtain regulatory approval for multiple robotic systems [3][4] Group 2: Market Performance and Sales Growth - In 2024, Jingfeng Medical sold 20 multi-port surgical robots, ranking first among domestic manufacturers, with clinical applications covering over 220 hospitals across 30 provinces in China [4] - The company's total revenue is expected to increase from 48 million yuan in 2023 to 160 million yuan in 2024, with a significant rise from 30 million yuan in the first half of 2024 to 149 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [4] - The report indicates that Jingfeng Medical's international expansion has led to explosive growth in overseas orders, with 72 out of 118 signed global sales agreements for core products being from overseas markets [5] Group 3: Precision Manufacturing and Emerging Industries - The report covers Xingrui Technology as a leading precision manufacturing enterprise in China, focusing on automotive electronics and actively expanding into emerging industries, with a target price of 32.11 yuan [6][8] - Revenue projections for Xingrui Technology are 1.626 billion, 1.980 billion, and 2.482 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with an expected EPS of 0.48, 0.69, and 0.95 yuan respectively [6] - The company has established a robust product matrix, including electronic connectors and structural components, with applications in new energy vehicle systems and consumer electronics, enhancing its competitive advantage in the automotive electronics sector [7] Group 4: Strategic Partnerships and Market Expansion - Xingrui Technology has formed strategic partnerships to expand into the liquid cooling industry, collaborating with Green Cloud to develop advanced technologies and products for data centers [8] - The company has a strong customer base, collaborating with renowned brands in consumer electronics and new energy sectors, and has established a global business layout with factories in multiple locations [7][8] - The report emphasizes the potential for Xingrui Technology to benefit from the growing demand for liquid cooling solutions driven by energy efficiency upgrades in data centers [8]