A 股策略周报：认清形势 积极应对 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 敬请参阅报告结尾处的免责声明 东方财智 兴盛之源 P2 东兴证券策略报告 认清形势 积极应对 A 股策略: 从 A 股近期走势来看，市场基本消除贸易战对指数的影响，市场重新步入常态化走势，在业绩披露期即将结 束的阶段，市场阶段性业绩风险释放，展望政策未来指向更加清晰，对资本市场的稳定和活跃给予较高定位，我们倾向 于指数未来将会呈现出稳中有升的格局。高质量发展未来仍将是市场的主线，我们继续看好大科技的主线地位，中美博 弈仍是主旋律，自主可控受消息面影响出现调整可视为布局机会。从政策角度，消费是下一步关注重点，提高中低收入 者福利和生育养老等方面政策支持，服务消费为代表的政策红利将会逐步释放，重点关注生育、教育、文旅等政策扶持 方向。 投资建议：中美贸易领域继续博弈可能性大，政策做好充分应对，短期市场风险偏好稳步回升，业绩风险逐步兑现，可 逐步提升仓位比例。首选人工智能、机器人为代表的大科技板块，经历了业绩兑现期之后，市场关注度有望重回行业发 展层面，主题性投资热度有望恢复。其次关注消费，未来政策红利充足，重点关注 ...

具体招聘活动主题和时间安排：5月6日，职引未来——2025年全国城市联合招聘高校毕业生春季专 场；5月9日，综合性人才交流活动；5月13日，职引未来·科技赋能新兴产业专场交流活动；5月16日， 2025年郑州市硕博人才交流活动；5月20日，职引未来——2025年全国城市联合招聘高校毕业生春季专 场；5月23日，综合性人才交流活动；5月27日，职引未来·技能型人才与先进制造业对接会；5月30日， 综合性人才交流活动。 据了解，8场人才交流活动中有5大核心专场，覆盖全类型人才需求。 "职引未来"高校毕业生专场，聚焦应、往届高校毕业生，汇聚教育、科技、服务业等多领域岗位， 提供职业指导、简历优化等配套服务，助力毕业生迈出职场第一步。 综合性人才交流活动，面向全行业开放，涵盖金融、商贸、文旅、建筑等热门领域，岗位层次丰 富，满足不同学历、经验求职者的多元需求。 科技赋能新兴产业专场，聚焦人工智能、大数据、新能源、生物医药等前沿领域，吸引产业链龙头 企业与创新型企业入驻，靶向招引技术研发、产品运营等高端人才，助推郑州新兴产业集群发展。 记者昨日从郑州市人社局获悉，为搭建人才与企业高效对接平台，郑州市人才交流中心将于5月 ...

据央广网4月27日报道，商务部等6部门出台《关于进一步优化离境退税政策扩大入境消费的通知》，通 知提出，下调离境退税起退点。境外旅客同日同店购买退税物品金额达到200元人民币，且符合其他相 关规定的，可以申请办理离境退税。优化离境退税支付服务。 *风险提示：股市有风险，入市需谨慎 江海证券认为，此前免税店针对的顾客包括国内消费者和国外旅游者，免税店主要以进口商品为主，国 产商品进入免税店比重较小，部分免税店销售国有商品其实是有税商品，且品类有限。此次即买即退政 策后，预计免税店会引入更多的国产商品，退税流程也将更加便捷。 此外，利好国内的商贸零售行业，特别是百货公司，百货公司可申请增加退税和"即买即退"业务，境外 旅客退税便利度提升，目前该政策先后在上海、北京、广东、四川、浙江、深圳等地开展试点，利好当 地百货等零售业态公司。 公司方面，据招商证券表示，中国中免、格力地产（珠免集团）、王府井为A股主要免税公司。 *免责声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议 此外，将现金退税限额上调至20000元人民币。推动退税代理机构与支付机构、清算机构等加强合作， 在风险可控的前提下，通过移动支付、银行卡、现金等多种方式提 ...

Market Performance - Major global markets recorded gains, with Nasdaq up 6.73%, DAX up 4.89%, and S&P 500 rising over 4.5% [1] - The Hang Seng Index and other indices like CSI 300 and A50 saw more modest increases, with Hang Seng Index up 2.74% [1] A-Share Market - A-share market experienced fluctuations driven by policy dynamics and earnings expectations, with the ChiNext Index leading with a 1.74% weekly gain [2] - Daily average trading volume for the week reached 1.15 trillion yuan, an increase of 38 billion yuan from the previous week [2][6] Sector Performance - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector rose by 3.97%, while the power equipment sector saw a decline of 7.73% [3] - The automotive sector increased by 4.87%, and the beauty care sector rose by 3.8%, indicating strong performance in certain industries [5] Policy Impact - The Politburo meeting emphasized the need for more proactive macro policies, suggesting a potential acceleration in policy implementation to boost market confidence [2] - The G20 meeting highlighted the importance of dialogue and policy coordination, which may enhance financial cooperation between China and the European Central Bank [1] Investment Opportunities - Short-term focus remains on domestic demand sectors, particularly in building materials, smart home appliances, and the hospitality industry, which are expected to benefit from policy upgrades [2]

Group 1 - The report identifies three significant export downturn periods in China: 2009-2014, 2016-2018, and 2023, with varying internal demand drivers such as infrastructure and consumption [4][12][14] - During the 2009-2014 downturn, the primary internal demand sectors were infrastructure and manufacturing, influenced by global economic crises [12] - The 2016-2018 period saw real estate and consumption as key internal demand sectors, impacted by trade protectionism and economic adjustments [13] - In 2023, the internal demand sectors shifted to consumption and infrastructure, driven by global economic slowdown and trade tensions [14] Group 2 - The report outlines structural policy responses during the three export downturns, emphasizing the need for export facilitation, infrastructure investment, and consumption stimulation [5][17] - Export policies evolved from short-term measures to stabilize trade to long-term structural optimization, focusing on enhancing trade facilitation and exploring new markets [18] - Infrastructure policies transitioned from traditional projects to major engineering and new infrastructure initiatives, particularly in response to economic challenges [18] - Real estate policies shifted from strict controls to significant relaxations, reflecting the changing economic landscape [20] Group 3 - The performance of the stock market during these downturns shows that the technology sector often outperformed, while the export chain struggled, particularly during the 2016-2018 period [22][24] - In the first downturn (2009-2014), the technology sector benefited from the smartphone boom, while the export chain lagged significantly by 26.08% in 2014 [23] - The second downturn (2016-2018) saw the red chip and internal demand chains perform relatively well, while the technology sector faced a downturn due to high valuations [24][28] - In 2023, the technology sector led the market, driven by innovations in artificial intelligence and digital economy, while the export chain remained under pressure [29][30]

受访者由看好消费板块转向人形机器人等板块。 本周（4月21日至4月25日），A股市场成交放量，连续5个交易日成交额维持在万亿元以上。本周，沪指累计上涨0.56%，深证成指上 涨1.38%，创业板指上涨1.74%，沪深300上涨0.38%。 | 名称 | 年初至今 | 本周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | | (%) | (%) | | 中证1000 | -0.31 | 1.85 | | 创业板指 | -9.08 | 1.74 | | 深证成指 | -4.78 | 1.38 | | 中证500 | -1.72 | 1.20 | | 上证指数 > | =1.69 | 0.56 | | 沪深300 | -3.76 | 0.38 | | 科创50 | 1.58 | -0.40 | | 北证50 | 25.28 | -2.16 | 从盈亏情况来看，本周有42%的受访者"盈利10%以内"，较上一期29%的比例大幅增长13个百分点；"亏损10%以内"的受访者占比 34%，上一期占比42%；"亏损10%到20%"的受访者占比11%，较上期继续下降2个百分点。 35%受访者认为大盘将站上3300点 对目前 ...

Group 1 - The establishment of a joint mechanism for government services in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Free Trade Zone aims to promote efficient collaborative development, with 230 "same standards" items introduced [1] - The Tianjin Free Trade Zone has been enhancing collaborative development through strategic positioning and has accumulated "Tianjin experience" for "one area innovation, three areas sharing" [1] - A joint meeting mechanism initiated by the Tianjin Free Trade Zone has produced collaborative development reports, action plans, and foreign investment guidelines, along with 46 collaborative innovation practice cases [1] Group 2 - The "same standards" government service items allow for "no difference acceptance, same standard processing," reducing the need for businesses and citizens to travel between different regions [1] - The launch of the "single window" customs logistics collaborative service platform facilitates real-time queries and data sharing for shipping information, port access, and customs clearance [1] - Collaborative industrial development is being strengthened, with cooperation platforms established in areas such as aerospace, healthcare, and automotive trade between the Tianjin Free Trade Zone and the Beijing Airport Economic Zone [2]

本周，大盘继续走出修复性行情，但更多地体现在局部板块上。全周，中小盘股、微盘股走势略强，大 盘股、蓝筹股表现略弱，本周的情况与上周相反。其中，国证2000指数、中证1000指数、创业板指数、 微盘股指数的涨幅均超过1.70%，而上证50指数下跌了0.33%。 那么，中小盘股表现略强，是否意味着稳市场的任务已经结束了？4月25日召开的政治局会议，有哪些 值得关注的内容？今天，达哥和牛博士就大家关注的话题展开讨论。 牛博士：达哥，你好，又到了周末我们聊行情的时间。4月25日召开的政治局会议，引起了投资者的广 泛关注，你怎么看？对于下周的走势，你又是如何看待的？ 道达：我对比了本次会议与过去几次会议的表述，发现了一些值得关注的方向。 首先说下大家最为关注的股市与楼市。 去年12月及今年2月的政治局会议，表述都是"稳住楼市股市"；而本次政治局会议的表述则是"持续稳定 和活跃资本市场""持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势"。 综上，我认为，从股市的角度来看，持续稳定和活跃资本市场，将夯实市场根基；设立服务消费与养老 再贷款，应该是本次政治局会议最大的预期差。 对于资本市场，表述中的"活跃"两个字是超预期的。对于房地产市场来说， ...

（原标题：25Q1 全 A 业绩同比显著增长，科创增速亮眼） 以下是为您生成的中文快讯： 国泰海通策略团队的方奕、田开轩发布报告指出，截至目前，全 A 24 年 报披露率达 70.3%，年报+预告披露率达 88.3%；25Q1 季报+预告披露率达 41.3%。24 年全 A 业绩小幅 下滑，双创业绩压力大，沪深 300 有韧性。消费板块中农林牧渔、商贸表现较好；科技里电子、汽车及 金融中非银增长快；周期行业中交运、公用占优，地产建筑链跌幅居前。25Q1 全 A 业绩同比显著增 长，科创增速亮眼。科技成长复苏，传媒、电子、军工、电新等大幅增长；消费中农牧、社服增长较 快；周期行业回暖，钢铁、建材、有色增速居前，地产业绩明显提升，非银延续增长。但需注意数据统 计口径差异及已披露数据对行业代表性有限的风险。 和讯自选股写手 风险提示：以上内容仅作为作者或者嘉宾的观点，不代表和讯的任何立场，不构成与和讯相关的任何投 资建议。在作出任何投资决定前，投资者应根据自身情况考虑投资产品相关的风险因素，并于需要时咨 询专业投资顾问意见。和讯竭力但不能证实上述内容的真实性、准确性和原创性，对此和讯不做任何保 证和承诺。 股票名称 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Suzhou Global Investment Conference was held with a total investment of 341.57 billion yuan across 417 projects, emphasizing Suzhou's commitment to innovation and global industrial cooperation [1][2] - Suzhou aims to enhance its role as a hub for technological advancement and maintain stability in global supply chains through the "Global Industrial Innovation Cooperation Partner Program" [1] Group 1: Investment and Economic Data - Suzhou's industrial output reached 4.7 trillion yuan, making it China's second-largest industrial city, with a complete industrial system covering 35 major categories and 515 subcategories [1] - The city has 14 national-level development zones and 19,000 foreign enterprises, with 178 Fortune 500 companies investing in nearly 500 projects, totaling actual foreign investment of 167 billion USD [2] - In comparison to the previous year, the number of projects signed at the conference increased from 367 to 417, while total investment decreased from 373.54 billion yuan to 341.57 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Innovation and Industry Development - Suzhou ranks first in the number of national technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises, second in advanced manufacturing cities, and third in the number of companies listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [1] - The city is enhancing its biopharmaceutical industry by implementing a "white list" for R&D imports, improving customs efficiency by 70% [2] - Suzhou is also working on increasing market access and has been approved as a national comprehensive pilot for expanding service industry openness, covering sectors like telecommunications, healthcare, and finance [2]