2025年，黄金的涨幅竟然超越了比特币。 从技术面来看，黄金短期内可能会经历一些调整。例如，某些图表形态显示可能出现回调，甚至有较大幅度的回落风险。但众多分析指出这并不意味着黄金 牛市结束，相反，这只是上涨过程中的"中场休息"。 多家机构依然坚定看好黄金的未来表现。比如高盛就重申了对黄金的看涨立场，预测到2025年底，金价可能达到每盎司3700美元，而到了2026年中期，甚至 有望冲击4000美元的历史新高。 一连串的"突飞猛进"之下，无论涨跌都成为了大家的焦点。黄金的波动背后是什么因素？还能再创高点吗？普通人如何操作？谁是黄金的推手？ 搜狐号财经黄金专题活动现已完结，看看@听风解局、@金市大鲤、@郑重看股、@3分天下、@九月金银、@分析师张尧浠、@锐眼财经、@金投网、@闫 瑞祥、@期货小褚怎么看待后市走向。 | 搜狐号 三分 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金狂飙是什么讯号? | | | | | 投向预言家 ▶ | 搜狐号财经 | | | | 上海民日 | | | | | 《中国手握2.5万吨黄金?布局全 | 听风解信 | 球金融新秩序,撼动美元霸权》 | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the industry, with a projected GDP growth rate of 4.2% for China in 2025, reflecting a slowdown due to tariff impacts [2][3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that China's growth is expected to soften significantly in the second and third quarters of 2025, with persistent deflationary pressures [3][4]. - It highlights the reactive nature of current policy measures, including faster government bond issuance and modest monetary easing, aimed at supporting the economy amid tariff uncertainties [9][16]. - The report suggests that while tariffs are currently high, there is potential for de-escalation in trade tensions between the US and China, which could alleviate some economic pressures [17][21]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth - Real GDP growth is forecasted to decline to 4.2% in 2025, with a notable softening in growth expected during Q2 and Q3 [2][4]. - The GDP deflator indicates a prolonged period of deflation, with expectations of deflationary pressures lasting until at least 2026 [5][6]. Policy Measures - The report outlines a series of policy measures aimed at stimulating the economy, including a supplementary fiscal package of RMB 1-1.5 trillion and enhanced support for infrastructure and technology investments [9][16]. - Specific measures include unemployment insurance rebates for exporters and a relending facility to support service consumption [16]. Tariff Impact - The report discusses the significant impact of tariffs on China's exports, noting that the current trade-weighted tariff on Chinese goods is projected to decrease to 34% with exemptions, while headline reciprocal tariffs remain at 60% [20][22]. - It highlights the low elasticity of certain Chinese exports to tariff changes, indicating that many products are highly reliant on the Chinese market [28][30]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies worthwhile investment areas, including manufacturing upgrades, urban infrastructure renewal, and basic scientific research, as sectors that may benefit from policy support [12][16]. - It also notes that the technology sector is expected to see increased capital expenditure, driven by AI adoption and government support [89][91]. Social Dynamics - The report points to evolving social dynamics that may trigger further policy pivots, particularly in response to changing consumer sentiment and economic conditions [13][16]. - It emphasizes the need for social welfare reforms to address low consumption rates and high household savings, which have been a barrier to economic growth [71][75].

2025年4月17日，由申万宏源证券担任主承销商的"大唐国际发电股份有限公司 2025年度第三期中期票据"成功发行，本期债券发行规模24亿元，期限5+N年，票面利 率2.14%，创发行人同期限中期票据最低票面利率！ 免责 声 明 本内容最终解释权归申万宏源证券有限公司所有。 大唐国际发电股份有限公司是我国五大电力央企之一中国大唐集团有限公司下属核 心子公司，发电业务分布于全国多个省、市、自治区，拥有较强的市场竞争力。本期中 期票据的成功发行有利于发行人获取发展所需的中长期资金，提高了发行人运营效益， 有利于发行人可持续发展。 本期中期票据达到了发行人较满意的发行结果，进一步夯实了我司与发行人的合作 关系。未来，公司将持续深耕债券业务，继续发挥公司优势，积极服务实体经济，推动 经济高质量发展。 ...

1 These are based on BOP definitions; the goods trade surplus would be 4.8% of GDP in 2025 (vs. 5.2% in 2024) based on the Customs definition. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Hui Shan +852-2978-6634 | hui.shan@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) ...

5 May 2025 | 5:00AM EDT Americas Transportation: Introducing the US Tariff Impact Tracker – High Frequency Trends Plus Our Trade Scenarios Analysis for 2025 US Tariff Impact Tracker – What We Plan to Disseminate Weekly: We are introducing a series of high frequency data to help assess the ongoing impact of Tariffs on Global Supply Chains and the accompanying ramifications to the flow of freight (e.g., expected ships leaving from China to USA). While we think our data set is representative, we do plan to per ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 30 April 2025 | 11:40AM HKT China: April PMIs – weaker manufacturing PMIs on heightened US tariffs Bottom line: Due to the negative impact of significantly higher US tariffs, the NBS manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0 in April from 50.5 in March, much lower than consensus expectations. The Caixin manufacturing PMI fell to 50.4 in April from 51.2 in March. The NBS non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 50.4 in April from 50.8 in March, moderately below market expectations and driven by w ...

May 2, 2025 03:39 AM GMT 亚洲经济研究 | Asia Pacific 目前情况如何？ M Idea 观点：回答您关于关税、贸易 和贸易紧张局势的问题 在本报告中，我们回答了投资者的主要问题，包括哪些高频 指标已经告诉我们有关关税的影响，我们如何看待关税路径 的演变，以及我们如何评估关税对增长前景的影响。 我们将走向何方？ 要点 This translated report is made available for convenience only and is based on the original research report published in English. In the event of any discrepancy between the translation and the original research report, the content in the original research report will prevail. The original research report can be found here: Asia Econo ...

May 2, 2025 11:12 AM GMT Asia/Pacific Weekly Preview | Asia Pacific M Update Weaker China April Exports; BNM on Hold Key Takeaways Australia • Building Approvals: We expect building approvals to increase 1.5%M/ 25.5%Y in March. Annualized approvals likely reached ~202k, the strongest since 2022. China Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+ Derrick Y Kam Asia Economist Derrick.Kam@morganstanley.com +65 6834-8272 Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Robin Xing Chief China Economist Robin.Xing@morganstanley.com +852 28 ...

2 May 2025 | 7:24PM HKT China Matters Patience and Resilience (Shan) Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Hui Shan +852-2978-6634 | hui.shan@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Lisheng Wang +852-3966-4004 | lisheng.wang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Xinquan Chen +852-2978-2418 | xinquan.chen@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Yuting Yang +852-2978-7283 | yuting.y.yang@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Chelsea Song +852-2978-0106 | chelsea.song@gs.com Goldman S ...