2025年9月底，全球大宗商品市场突然安静了，因为一场风暴正在水下酝酿。中国对必和必拓——这家澳大利亚矿业巨头，也是全球最大的铁矿石供应商之 一——撂下一句硬话：以后咱们做生意，人民币结算，不玩美元了。 消息一出，澳洲政商界炸了锅，金融市场轻微震荡，政客们嘴上说着"不慌"，但背地里紧急开会，电话打到北京，想搞清楚这到底是谈判策略，还是中国真 的动了真格。 事情的起因比表面复杂得多。其实早在几个月前，中方就在和必和必拓的合同续签谈判中提出人民币结算的试点方案，起初澳方以为是"试探性提议"，没太 当回事，结果中方态度越来越坚决，甚至直接暂停了部分长协订单的执行。这下澳洲慌了。 要知道，中国每年进口的铁矿石占全球总量的70%以上，而其中近一半来自澳大利亚。必和必拓、力拓、FMG这三大巨头，几乎把命根子都系在中国市场 上。你敢断供？中国说，我不买，你卖给谁？印度？他们消化不了这体量。东南亚？基础设施跟不上。欧洲？他们自己都在减产。所以这一招，看似简单， 实则精准打在澳洲的七寸上。 但咱们得说句实在话，中国这步棋，不是临时起意，是憋了十几年的反杀。回想2010年代，中国钢铁厂疯狂扩张，铁矿石需求暴涨，澳洲趁机坐地起价， ...

继拿捏美国大豆之后，中国又开始准备拿捏澳大利亚了，而这次的标的物就是铁矿石。 据路透社报道称，中国矿产资源集团有限公司已经通知主要钢厂和贸易厂商，暂停进口任何以美元计价的必和必拓海运铁矿石！ 必和必拓是澳大利亚最大的铁矿集团，也是全球最大的铁矿集团，它在铁矿开采领域占据全球市场的主导地位。 在莫里森时期，澳大利亚就曾对中国大打铁矿牌，配合美国对中国进口铁矿卡脖子，疯狂炒作国际铁矿价格。 可风水轮流转，如今澳大利亚铁矿无法摆脱对中国市场的依赖，此举无疑引发了澳大利亚的恐慌。 中国从不打无准备之仗 澳大利亚政府曾说要和中国修复关系，但实际执行中却没有显示出多少诚意。 于是在9月30日，中国矿产资源集团有限公司要求国内买家暂停购买任何以美元计价的必和必拓（BHP）海运船货。 报道称，这意味着新合约的签署将全面暂停，包括已从澳大利亚矿山运出的铁矿石船货也不例外。 前言 可别小瞧这个决定的意义，必和必拓是全球最大的综合矿业公司之一，2024财年营收达818亿美元，其中铁矿石业务占比约60%。 并且，澳大利亚62%的铁矿石出口依赖中国市场，而必和必拓占澳对华铁矿石出口的40%以上，直接支撑了澳大利亚3%的GDP和15%的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has escalated its actions against BHP by requesting domestic steel mills to halt any new contracts for iron ore priced in US dollars, indicating a shift towards local currency transactions and a broader strategy to reduce reliance on the US dollar in commodity trade [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - The ban on new dollar-denominated contracts follows China's earlier suspension of purchases of BHP's iron ore, marking a significant escalation in trade tensions between China and Australia [1][3]. - Australia’s Prime Minister Albanese expressed disappointment over China's decision, emphasizing the importance of iron ore trade for both economies and acknowledging the frequent price negotiation disputes [3][15]. Group 2: Historical Context - China's involvement in international iron ore negotiations began in 2004, but it has historically been in a position of accepting rules set by international miners [3][5]. - The price of iron ore saw significant increases from 2005 to 2008, with a cumulative rise of 165% over four years, highlighting the challenges faced by Chinese steel companies in negotiating prices [5]. Group 3: Shift to Local Currency - The establishment of China Mineral Resources Group in 2022 aimed to consolidate purchasing power among domestic steel mills to challenge the pricing dominance of international miners [6]. - BHP's acceptance of RMB for iron ore transactions in 2022 marked a pivotal moment in the shift towards local currency settlements, with previous attempts to use RMB dating back to 2019 [6][11]. Group 4: Global De-dollarization Trends - The global trend of de-dollarization has gained momentum, with countries like Brazil and Argentina moving towards local currency trade agreements with China [8]. - The share of the US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased to 58.4%, the lowest since 1995, reflecting a growing distrust in the dollar [8][13]. Group 5: Supply Chain Diversification - China's strategy to diversify iron ore supply includes the development of the Ximangdu iron ore project, expected to add 120 million tons of annual supply capacity [10]. - The domestic recycling of scrap steel is being accelerated, with each ton of scrap steel replacing 1.6 tons of iron ore, contributing to reduced carbon emissions [10]. Group 6: Market Implications - In 2023, China's iron ore imports are projected to reach 370 million tons, accounting for over 75% of global seaborne trade, making China a critical market for Australian iron ore exports [11]. - If China were to cease orders from BHP, the company could face a significant revenue shortfall, given that 80% of its iron ore exports are directed to China [11][15]. Group 7: Financial Market Reactions - The rising costs of domestic iron ore procurement for large steel enterprises have increased by 64% year-on-year, indicating the direct impact of international price fluctuations on the domestic industry [17]. - The shift in procurement strategies aims to leverage economies of scale to mitigate price volatility in the iron ore market [17].

【文/观察者网 熊超然】当地时间9月30日，彭博社援引匿名知情人士报道称，中国矿产资源集团有限 公司本周已要求国内买家暂停购买任何以美元计价的必和必拓（BHP）海运船货。 报道称，这意味着新合约的签署将全面暂停，包括已从澳大利亚矿山运出的铁矿石船货也不例外。目 前，必和必拓仅有少量已抵达中国港口的铁矿石现货可供交易，且这些资源均以人民币计价。 知情人士透露，这一决定是在双方自上周晚些时候进行了多轮磋商但未取得成果之后做出的。 当地时间10月1日，澳大利亚总理阿尔巴尼斯对此声称，中方暂停采购必和必拓铁矿石"令人失望"，希 望这个问题能够迅速得到解决。 "我希望看到澳大利亚铁矿石能够畅通无阻地出口到中国。这很重要，不仅对中国经济做出了重大贡 献，也对澳大利亚经济做出了重大贡献。" 彭博社提到，中国矿产资源集团9月初要求钢厂暂停购买必和必拓的金布巴粉（Jimblebar Fines），而此 次对铁矿石的禁令标志着行动的升级，显示出中方对于增强价格影响力的决心。 另一方面，全球最大的矿业公司必和必拓则是向中国钢铁制造商供应大部分铁矿石的三大供应商之一。 路透社指出，铁矿石是澳大利亚最有价值的出口产品，但澳大利亚政府今 ...

格隆汇9月30日丨中国铁钛(00893.HK)公告，于2025年9月30日，公司的间接全资子公司阿坝矿业与承包 商订立施工合约，据此，在施工合约的条款及条件规限下，承包商须就矿场升级扩产的施工及工程作业 提供服务，合约总额为人民币3400万元。 公司已强调高品位铁矿场业务的战略重要性，计划发展及进一步扩大高品位铁矿场业务。公司早前亦曾 于2021年至2024年在多份公告、中期报告及年报中提供多项业务最新消息，内容有关该等扩大及优化运 营效率的战略举措。公司进一步披露，公司一直逐步进行扩大及优化运营效率的相关采矿工程作业，包 括评估运营及生产规划扩大高品位铁矿场业务。 自2024年12月复产以来，高品位铁矿场业务趋于稳定，惟其现有的现场升级及逐步扩展工程不时断续地 进行，对规模经济造成不同程度的影响及干扰。尽管如此，集团有意评估下一阶段现场升级及扩展的可 行性，以期在更长远的时间内维持、扩大及优化高品位铁矿场业务的整体生产力，原因在于集团相信， 作为集团策略扩展计划的一部分，在完成资源整合程序后有必要进行该等商业评估及技术评估。 因此，升级及扩大毛岭－羊龙山铁矿的策略性决定乃建基于集团于2023年完成的资源整合 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, supported by increased supply and high molten iron production for export, the fundamentals of iron ore are decent. The price is expected to show no strong trend and maintain a moderately bullish oscillating pattern. Domestic demand remains stable overall, while overseas demand is strong. However, long - positions should pay attention to overseas risks [3][88] - The price range in Q4 is expected to be between 90 and 115 for Platts 62 and between 700 and 900 for the iron ore index [4][89] - Industrial risk management suggestion: interval trading [5][90] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 2025 H1 Iron Ore Price Review - From January 15 to February 21: Pessimistic expectations were reversed, and supply disruptions supported the price increase. The black market followed the stock market, and both domestic and overseas macro - sentiments were positive. Hurricanes affected iron ore shipments, and the spot was in short supply [5] - From February 22 to April 8: Both expectations and fundamentals weakened. After the hurricane, shipments returned to normal, and the relationship between the stock market and the black market diverged. Tariffs and anti - dumping concerns, along with the expectation of crude steel reduction, pushed the price down [6] - From April 9 to June 18: After the risk release, there was a temporary balance. The iron ore valuation was low, but the actual demand was stable. The Geneva Agreement led to a price increase, but then the market entered a low - volatility state [7] - From June 19 to the present: The iron ore price bottomed out and then rose. The reasons were the promotion of anti - involution and the repair of pessimistic expectations under high molten iron production [8] 2. Supply - **Overall Supply in 2025**: The supply of iron ore in the first three quarters of 2025 was tight at first and then loosened. The global shipment volume in the first three quarters was about 1.133 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.78%. It is expected that the shipment in Q4 will be relatively sufficient, with a year - on - year growth rate of about 1% [11] - **China's Supply**: From January to August, the cumulative import of iron ore and its concentrates was 801.618 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. In August, the import was 10.5225 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% [17] - **Shipment by Country**: Australia and Brazil are still the top two suppliers, but their shipment volumes declined. India's exports to China dropped significantly, while Russia's and Mongolia's exports increased [19][20] - **Four Major Mines**: In H1 2025, the four major mines generally overcame adverse factors, and their production remained stable or increased slightly. Vale and Rio Tinto are expected to be the main contributors to the incremental production in H2 [24] - **Domestic Mines**: From January to August, the iron concentrate output of 332 mines was 172.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5%. The annual output is expected to be lower than last year, with a year - on - year growth rate of about - 2% [48] 3. Demand - **Demand Revision**: The view on demand in the semi - annual report needs to be revised. Currently, external demand is the dominant factor. Domestic demand in infrastructure and real estate remains weak, while exports, both direct and indirect, are becoming the leading force in black demand [51][52] - **Molten Iron Production**: In the first three quarters of 2025, the average daily molten iron production was 237210 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.73%. It is expected that the production in Q4 may first remain stable and then decline [58] - **Steel Mill Supply Adjustment**: In the first three quarters, downstream steel mill demand was decent supported by exports. Building materials demand declined, while plate demand maintained positive growth. Steel mills adjusted their supply through production transfer [63][64] - **Export Support**: In the context of weak domestic demand, overseas exports are an important support for steel demand. Although the cost advantage is weakening, the export volume is expected to be supported in the second half of the year [68] 4. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Due to hurricane disruptions and high molten iron production in the first three quarters, port inventory decreased. However, with the recovery of shipments and low steel mill profits, port inventory may start to accumulate again [73] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mills adhere to the low - inventory strategy for raw materials, and the proportion of trading ore is relatively high [75] - **Global Seaborne Inventory**: The global seaborne inventory of iron ore is high, and the shipping speed has returned to normal, which may accelerate the arrival of iron ore at ports [77] 5. Valuation - **Term Structure**: The term structure of iron ore remains in a back structure, but the contango of far - month contracts has significantly shrunk. In Q4, attention should be paid to steel mill production cuts for reverse arbitrage [79] - **Iron - Scrap Price Difference**: Scrap steel has been less cost - effective compared to iron ore in the past year. The scrap addition ratio in blast furnaces has decreased [82] - **Coking Coal/Iron Ore Seesaw Effect**: In 2025, the price seesaw effect between coking coal and iron ore is more significant. If coking coal prices remain strong in Q4, it may continue to suppress iron ore prices [84] - **Volatility**: The implied volatility of iron ore options decreased in H1 2025 and then rebounded after the anti - involution trading in late June [86]

Group 1 - First Au Limited (ASX: FAU) is accelerating drilling operations at its Gimlet gold project in Western Australia while also advancing its Nimba project in West Africa, aiming to enhance its gold resource portfolio [3][5][6] - The Gimlet project has received regulatory approval, and a 2,500-meter reverse circulation drilling program has commenced, targeting an inferred resource of 120,000 ounces of gold at a grade of 3.19 g/t Au [5][6] - The Nimba project, located near Endeavour Mining's Ity mine, has confirmed gold mineralization extensions, with an initial 3,000-meter diamond drilling program underway [7][8] Group 2 - The drilling at Gimlet is expected to provide critical geological data to support future open-pit and underground mining studies, enhancing the confidence in the existing resource [5][6] - The Nimba project is strategically positioned within the West African Craton gold belt, with significant nearby resources, indicating strong exploration potential [6][7] - First Au Limited plans to focus on resource expansion, feasibility data acquisition, and project value reassessment over the next 6 to 12 months [8]

消息面 据大商所，经研究决定，自2025年9月29日（星期一）结算时起，铁矿石品种期货合约涨跌停板幅度调 整为11%，交易保证金水平调整为13%。 9月24日：全国主港铁矿石成交155万吨，环比下跌13.46%；远期现货成交65万吨。 金信期货： 西非毛里塔尼亚国家工业与矿业公司（SNIM）近日宣布，计划到2031年将铁矿石年产量提升至4500万 吨。同时，该公司宣布在Tazadit地区新发现一处资源量约5000万吨的高品质赤铁矿床，增产计划将通过 开发此类新资源与优化现有运营实现。 供应端发运稳定，近期钢厂有逐步复产迹象，铁水料将维持高位运行；叠加中下旬临近国庆，钢厂开启 补库或将支撑原料；技术面上，仍处高位宽幅震荡区间，震荡思路对待。 机构观点 新世纪期货： 美联储降息如期落地，国庆节后交易重点逐渐落实到现实。海外铁矿供应小幅下滑，本期全球铁矿石发 运总量环比减少248.3万吨至3324.8万吨，不过仍旧处于近几年同期最高水平。澳洲、巴西以及非主流地 区发运量均下降，不过47港铁矿石到港总量环比增加358.1万吨至2750.4万吨，创两个月新高。上周日均 铁水产量小幅回升继续保持在高位，带动铁矿需求回升， ...

Core Insights - The discovery of the Simandou iron ore deposit in Guinea, containing 16 billion tons of iron ore with a grade of 66%, has significant implications for the global iron ore market [1][5][14] - China's investment and infrastructure development in Guinea have revitalized the mining project, which had been dormant for over a century due to various challenges [3][11][13] Group 1: Project Background - The Simandou iron ore deposit was discovered in the 1990s during a period of increasing global demand for high-quality iron ore, particularly from developing countries like China [5] - The deposit's high-grade ore, exceeding the global average, positions it as a critical resource for the international market, with the potential to meet nearly two years of global demand [5][7] Group 2: Investment and Development - China has committed $14 billion to the development of the Simandou project, providing advanced technology and equipment, which has led to significant progress in infrastructure, including railways and ports [11][13] - The project is expected to create thousands of jobs in Guinea and facilitate local training in mining and maintenance, aligning with sustainable development goals [13][14] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The involvement of major mining companies like Rio Tinto and BSGR in the past highlights the competitive interest in the Simandou project, but their inability to advance the project due to political instability and high costs paved the way for China's entry [9][11] - China's strategic approach and commitment to infrastructure development have positioned it favorably in the global mining sector, potentially making Guinea the third-largest iron ore exporter [14]

Core Viewpoint - Fortescue Metals Group is advancing a green iron project that utilizes green hydrogen to reduce iron ore into green iron, emphasizing its commitment to decarbonization and aiming for net-zero carbon emissions by 2040, which is 10 to 20 years ahead of its competitors [1][2]. Group 1: Decarbonization Goals - Fortescue aims to achieve net-zero carbon emissions in its "Scope 3" by 2040, significantly ahead of other major mining companies [1]. - The company plans to invest $6.2 billion from 2024 to 2028 for projects related to decarbonization [1]. - The green iron project is expected to produce its first batch of products by early 2026, with an annual capacity planned at 1,500 tons [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, Fortescue reported iron ore shipments of 19.84 million tons and a net profit of $3.4 billion [2]. - The company is making substantial progress towards its decarbonization goals, including the operation of a 100 MW solar power plant that meets about 25% of the power needs at its Iron Bridge project [2]. - Fortescue plans to allocate $900 million to $1.2 billion for decarbonization capital expenditures in fiscal year 2026, focusing on green low-carbon technologies [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Fortescue anticipates iron ore shipments between 19.5 million and 20.5 million tons for fiscal year 2026 [3]. - Goldman Sachs has raised short-term price expectations for iron ore but predicts a decline to $80 per ton by the end of 2026 [3]. - The company believes that the supply-demand balance in the iron ore market will remain dynamic, with stable demand from China [3].