投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2026-03-04 需求预期调整，资金撤离引发碳酸锂大 跌 新能源观点：需求预期调整，资⾦撤离引发碳酸锂⼤跌 交易逻辑：据我的钢铁网和百川盈孚数据，碳酸锂供需延续偏紧格 局，江西部分锂矿复产预期继续延后，津巴布韦限制锂矿出口，供应 扰动担忧持续；工业硅和多晶硅供需整体延续偏宽松。中短期来看， 投资者重新权衡电车销量下滑对电池消费的影响，在有色整体下跌的 背景下，资金恐慌性撤离引发碳酸锂大跌。长期来看，硅供应端收缩 预期较强，尤其多晶硅，价格重心可能抬升；锂矿产能还处于上升阶 段，但需求预期也在不断拔高，供需过剩量预期在收窄，供需改善预 期将推高价格重心。 ⼯业硅观点：供应有所回升，硅价承压震荡 多晶硅观点：库存持续累积，多晶硅暂时承压 碳酸锂观点：市场情绪⾛弱，锂价再度跌停 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z0016667 杨飞 从业资格号F03108013 投资咨询号Z0021455 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2026-03-03 供需预期分化，碳酸锂相对偏强 新能源观点：供需预期分化，碳酸锂相对偏强 交易逻辑：据我的钢铁网和百川盈孚数据，碳酸锂供需延续偏紧格 局，江西部分锂矿复产预期继续延后，津巴布韦限制锂矿出口，供应 扰动担忧持续；工业硅和多晶硅供需整体延续偏宽松。中短期来看， 新能源金属远期供需预期不同，新能源金属价格走势分化，供应有扰 动且供需偏紧的碳酸锂相对偏强。长期来看，硅供应端收缩预期较 强，尤其多晶硅，价格重心可能抬升；锂矿产能还处于上升阶段，但 需求预期也在不断拔高，供需过剩量预期在收窄，供需改善预期将推 高价格重心。 ⼯业硅观点：供应有所回升，硅价承压震荡 多晶硅观点：库存持续累积，多晶硅暂时承压 碳酸锂观点：需求预期引担忧，碳酸锂有所回调 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z0016667 杨飞 从业资格号F03108013 投资咨询号Z0021455 王雨欣 从业资格号F0 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2026-02-25 供需预期分化，碳酸锂领涨新能源金属 新能源观点：供需预期分化，碳酸锂领涨新能源⾦属 交易逻辑：碳酸锂供需延续偏紧格局，江西部分锂矿复产预期继续延 后，供应扰动担忧持续，供需预期偏紧；工业硅和多晶硅生产企业主 动适应弱需求而减产，但工业硅和多晶硅供需整体延续偏宽松。中短 期来看，新能源金属远期供需预期不同，新能源金属价格走势分化， 碳酸锂相对偏强。长期来看，硅供应端收缩预期较强，尤其多晶硅， 价格重心可能抬升；锂矿产能还处于上升阶段，但需求预期也在不断 拔高，供需过剩量预期在收窄，供需改善预期将推高价格重心。 ⼯业硅观点：供需双弱，硅价延续震荡。 多晶硅观点：库存持续累积，多晶硅暂时承压。 碳酸锂观点：IEEPA关税失效引发抢出⼝预期，碳酸锂开盘⼤涨。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z0016667 杨飞 从业资格号F03108013 投资咨询号Z0021455 王雨欣 从业资格号F0 ...

今年春节期间的市场波动情况如何？美国关税政策对中国出口有何影响？ 今年春节期间，整体市场波动相对较小，但有色贵金属行情依然波动较大。美 国方面，最高法院裁定特朗普之前动用 IEEPA 实施的对等关税违法，随后特朗 普通过 122 条款将关税从 10%提高到 15%。尽管 15%的税率比之前的对等关 税条件下稍低，但对中国出口的影响有限。去年在高关税情况下，中国对美出 铝市场维持看多观点，节后开盘沪铝价格可能有补涨动力，但整体反弹 高度受制于季节性高库存压力。从宏观角度看，在温和通胀背景下，预 计维持宽松流动环境。同时海外制造业景气度上行，加之关键矿产资源 战略储备逻辑及 AI 带来的长周期需求增量，对整体金属偏多看待。 新能源金属整体看多。锂方面，储能领域表现超预期，今年 1 月招标同 比增长约 150%，预计储能电芯厂满产时间延长至 5-6 月。钴方面，供 需平衡表最为健康，钴价底部维持在 42 万元，上方可能看到 50 万元左 右。镍方面，印尼镍矿配额审核延期至 3 月中下旬兑现，成本上移和中 期短缺担忧未变，对镍价保持谨慎乐观态度。 美伊局势贯穿春节假期，是原油市场主要交易主线。如果未来两周看到 实际动 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Viewpoints - The macro sentiment has fluctuated significantly, amplifying volatility in the commodity market. Short-term carbonate lithium prices have surged and then retreated, with inventory adjustments providing support. There remains potential for a rebound before the holiday. In the medium term, lithium salt supply is constrained, and mining costs are rising, maintaining the upward price logic for lithium. The cobalt sector is supported by raw material costs, showing strong price resilience with limited downside [4][12][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The lithium and cobalt sectors are identified as having clear investment value, with recommendations for active positioning. The lithium sector has seen increased price volatility, with futures contracts experiencing significant declines. The price of lithium concentrate was reported at $2,070 per ton, down $144 from the previous week. The carbonate lithium price has significantly corrected, but downstream demand has led to active market transactions [8][12][13]. 2. Company and Industry Dynamics - Various companies have released performance signals, with notable announcements including Pilbara's production advancements and CATL's plans for a new battery manufacturing base in Yunnan. Yongshan Lithium and Yahua Group have provided profit forecasts indicating significant year-on-year growth, while Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium have also reported expected turnarounds in profitability [15][16][17]. 3. Core Data on New Energy Materials - December production data shows mixed trends, with carbonate lithium production up 4% month-on-month and hydroxide lithium up 2%. The inventory levels are undergoing structural adjustments, with significant increases in imports of carbonate lithium and hydroxide lithium [18][31][49].

Core Insights - The completion and production launch of the second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine marks a significant milestone for Zijin Mining, establishing it as China's largest copper mine with a total production capacity of 350,000 tons per day [1][2] - The project is expected to significantly enhance Zijin Mining's copper output, with annual copper production projected to rise from 190,000 tons in 2025 to between 300,000 and 350,000 tons in 2026 [1][3] - The Jilong Copper Mine's production will play a crucial role in alleviating China's reliance on imported copper, as it is anticipated to contribute 11-16 million tons of copper annually, addressing a projected demand gap in the global copper market [3][9] Production Capacity Expansion - The Jilong Copper Mine's second phase will increase the annual ore processing capacity from 45 million tons to 105 million tons, with copper metal resources confirmed at 25.88 million tons, 2.5 times the amount at the time of acquisition in 2020 [1][3] - The mine's production is expected to account for nearly 20% of China's total copper output in 2024, reinforcing its position as a "super grain depot" for domestic copper supply [3] Strategic Positioning - The Jilong Copper Mine is a core asset of Zijin Mining, which holds an 80.88% stake in collaboration with Cangge Mining, and is part of a strategic plan to achieve an annual copper production of 800,000 tons in Tibet [2][4] - The project supports Zijin Mining's "copper-dominant" strategy, with a compound annual growth rate of 24% in copper production over the past five years, positioning the company to narrow the gap with global leaders [4] Technological Innovations - The mine's development in extreme conditions has led to significant technological breakthroughs, including adaptations for low-temperature and low-oxygen environments, enhancing operational efficiency by over 50% [6][7] - Innovations in ecological protection, such as a 1GW solar power station and advanced wastewater treatment systems, demonstrate a commitment to sustainable mining practices [7] Global Market Impact - The launch of the Jilong Copper Mine's second phase reflects a shift in the global copper industry, as Chinese mining companies like Zijin Mining transition from being resource-rich to becoming mining powerhouses [8][9] - The increased production capacity is expected to enhance China's influence in global copper pricing, potentially shifting the pricing power from traditional Western firms to Chinese enterprises [9]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a downturn on January 20, 2026, with the ChiNext New Energy ETF Huaxia (159368) declining by 2.43% in the afternoon session [1] - The photovoltaic industry chain weakened in the afternoon, with Hunan Yuneng rising by 2.56%, Dike Co. rising by 1.92%, and Junxin Co. rising by 1.35%, while Ningde Times and Yingboer saw slight increases [1] - The trading volume of the ChiNext New Energy ETF Huaxia (159368) reached 108 million, making it the largest in its category [1] Group 2 - The main contract for lithium carbonate on the Guangqi Exchange surged by 8%, reaching 159,440 yuan per ton on January 20 [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced plans to accelerate energy transition in 2026, aiming to add over 200 million kilowatts of wind and solar power installations [1] - The supply-demand situation for lithium carbonate remains tight, with concerns over supply disruptions, while downstream consumption is becoming cautious due to rapid price increases [1] Group 3 - The ChiNext New Energy ETF Huaxia (159368) is the largest ETF fund tracking the ChiNext New Energy Index, covering multiple sectors including batteries and photovoltaics [2] - The fund has a high elasticity with a potential increase of up to 20%, and the combined management and custody fees are only 0.2% [2] - As of December 30, 2025, the fund's scale reached 676 million yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 70.75 million yuan over the past month [2]

Summary of CNGR Advanced Material Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: CNGR Advanced Material Co., Ltd. (中伟股份) - **Industry**: Battery Materials, specifically Nickel and Cobalt-based precursors - **Market Position**: Leading global producer of nickel and cobalt-based battery precursors, with a significant market share in the nickel precursor market projected at 20.3% and cobalt precursor market at 28% by 2024 [1][9][10] Key Insights Market Leadership - CNGR holds the largest market share in both nickel and cobalt precursor active materials globally, with over 70% of its nickel precursor products being high-nickel and ultra-high-nickel variants [1][9] - The company has a strong pricing power due to its leading position in high-nickel precursor markets, with a market share of 31.7% in high-nickel and 89.5% in ultra-high-nickel precursors by 2024 [9][10] Vertical Integration - CNGR has established a vertically integrated business model covering the entire supply chain from mining and smelting of nickel to battery material production and recycling [1][9] - The company has a nickel smelting capacity of 155,000 tons, which will meet 100% of its precursor production needs by 2024, providing a cost advantage [1][9] Global Presence - The company operates four production bases in China and has additional facilities in Morocco, Indonesia, and planned operations in South Korea, enhancing its global footprint and ability to meet local sourcing demands [2][10] Client Base - CNGR's clientele includes top-tier companies in the battery, automotive, and consumer electronics sectors, such as Samsung SDI, SK Hynix, LG, Panasonic, CATL, and BYD, which contributes to stable profitability [2][10] Investment Risks - Potential demand slowdown due to technological changes and government policy shifts [2][10] - Increased competition that may pressure profit margins [2][10] - Volatility in commodity prices affecting profitability [2][10] Valuation - Target price for A-shares is set at RMB 53.9 and for H-shares at HKD 45, corresponding to a projected P/E ratio of 25.0x for A-shares and 19.1x for H-shares in 2026 [2][11] - The H-share target price includes a 31% premium over A-shares, reflecting a more attractive valuation [11][12] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the upcoming fiscal years are as follows: - FY24: RMB 40.2 billion - FY25: RMB 45.9 billion - FY26: RMB 56.1 billion - FY27: RMB 57.7 billion [7] - EBITDA projections are: - FY25: RMB 4.9 billion - FY26: RMB 5.6 billion - FY27: RMB 6.4 billion [7] Conclusion - CNGR Advanced Material Co., Ltd. is positioned as a leader in the battery materials industry with a robust growth outlook driven by its market leadership, vertical integration, and strong client base. However, investors should remain cautious of the outlined risks and market dynamics that could impact future performance [1][2][10]

Market Overview - In December 2025, the A-share market showed a "high-level fluctuation and structural switching" pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.06% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 4.17%[7] - The average return of the stock portfolio in December was 6.20%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which rose by 2.28%[7] Stock Recommendations - **Hengrui Medicine (600276)**: Closing price at 59.57 CNY, focusing on innovative drugs with a projected EPS of 1.31 CNY for 2025[10][12] - **Luoyang Molybdenum (603993)**: Closing price at 20.00 CNY, benefiting from copper and gold business expansion, with an EPS forecast of 0.88 CNY[15][18] - **Huaxin Cement (600801)**: Closing price at 24.54 CNY, with a focus on overseas expansion and an EPS estimate of 1.42 CNY[19][22] - **Sanmei Co., Ltd. (603379)**: Closing price at 60.72 CNY, specializing in refrigerants, with an EPS forecast of 3.50 CNY[23][27] - **CATL (300750)**: Closing price at 367.26 CNY, with a valuation recovery theme and an EPS estimate of 15.00 CNY[28][31] - **Sungrow Power Supply (300274)**: Closing price at 171.04 CNY, benefiting from favorable conditions in new energy storage, with an EPS forecast of 7.12 CNY[32][35] - **Sany Heavy Industry (600031)**: Closing price at 21.13 CNY, focusing on engineering machinery with an EPS estimate of 0.99 CNY[36][39] - **Inovance Technology (300124)**: Closing price at 75.33 CNY, focusing on industrial control with an EPS forecast of 2.07 CNY[40][42] - **North Huachuang (002371)**: Closing price at 459.08 CNY, specializing in semiconductor equipment with an EPS estimate of 9.95 CNY[43][45] Risks and Considerations - The report indicates a medium to high risk level for the stock portfolio, emphasizing the need for cautious investment decisions based on the accuracy and completeness of the information provided[6][3] - Potential risks include macroeconomic fluctuations, raw material price volatility, and regulatory changes affecting industry dynamics[11][18][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Before the holiday, funds are cautious, and new energy metals are experiencing wide - range fluctuations. The supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate remains tight, and the risk of supply disruptions has increased. The supply - demand of industrial silicon and polysilicon is loosening, but the establishment of a polysilicon storage platform has raised the expectation of supply contraction. In the short - to - medium term, funds are taking profits before the holiday, causing wide - range fluctuations in new energy metals like lithium carbonate. However, concerns about supply disruptions still support prices. In the long term, the supply of silicon, especially polysilicon, is expected to contract, and the price center may rise. The lithium ore production capacity is increasing, but demand expectations are also rising, and the expected surplus of supply and demand is narrowing. The long - term supply - demand trend of lithium carbonate needs to be re - examined, and the annual supply - demand inflection point may appear earlier [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: Supply - demand drivers are weak, and the silicon price fluctuates with market sentiment. The medium - term outlook is "oscillation" [7] - **Information Analysis**: As of December 30, the spot prices of oxygen - passivated 553 and 421 in East China were 9,250 yuan/ton and 9,650 yuan/ton respectively, remaining stable. The latest domestic inventory was 456,150 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%. As of November 2025, the monthly production of domestic industrial silicon was 402,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. In November, the export of industrial silicon was 54,888 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.8% and a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. In November, the newly added photovoltaic installed capacity was 22GW, a month - on - month increase of 75% and a year - on - year decrease of 12% [7] - **Main Logic**: The supply in the north is subject to potential changes, and the demand from downstream industries such as polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy is weak. Although the industry inventory has decreased recently, there is still some pressure. Overall, the supply pressure has been alleviated to some extent, but the downstream demand has also weakened, and the industrial silicon will still accumulate inventory in December and early next year, with weak fundamentals. The price is expected to oscillate due to the current coal price and market sentiment [7][8] 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: Strong expectations vs. weak reality, and the polysilicon price continues to have high volatility. The medium - term outlook is "oscillation with an upward bias" [8] - **Information Analysis**: As of the week of December 30, the transaction price range of N - type re - feed material was 50,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.32%. In November, the export volume of polysilicon was about 3,230 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18%. A polysilicon platform company was registered, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange added new registered brands for polysilicon futures [8] - **Main Logic**: The establishment of the polysilicon platform company has raised the expectation of polysilicon storage, but the willingness to reduce positions at the end of the year is strong, resulting in high price volatility. The production in the southwest has decreased during the dry season, and in the long - term, the impact of anti - involution policies on supply needs to be monitored. The demand for polysilicon has gradually weakened since November. The weak reality of the fundamentals remains unchanged, but the price is expected to be strongly supported at the bottom. The price is expected to be oscillatory with an upward bias in the short term [9][10] 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment has eased, and the lithium carbonate price is oscillating upwards. The medium - term outlook is "oscillation with an upward bias" [11][12] - **Information Analysis**: On December 30, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 2.32% compared to the previous day. The total position of lithium carbonate contracts increased by 252 lots. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged. The average price of spodumene concentrate index (CIF China) remained unchanged. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 1,300 lots. The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice on the equipment update and trade - in policy, which includes support for automobile scrap and replacement [11] - **Main Logic**: The current demand for lithium carbonate has weakened marginally, but the long - term demand expectation is strong. The market sentiment has a significant impact on the price. The maintenance of several leading cathode material factories in January will lead to weaker demand, but the raw material inventory of the cathode link has decreased significantly. Overall, the price is expected to be oscillatory with an upward bias in the short term, and it is advisable to buy on dips [12] 3.2行情监测 - The specific content of this section in the text only lists the names of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, without specific monitoring information, so no summary can be made 3.3中信期货商品指数 - On December 30, 2025, the comprehensive index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial products index were 2,343.82 (+0.17%), 2,683.42 (-0.17%), and 2,271.47 (+0.56%) respectively. The new energy commodity index was 510.47, with a daily increase of 2.35%, a decrease of 1.02% in the past 5 days, an increase of 12.84% in the past month, and an increase of 23.78% since the beginning of the year [54][56]