Market Overview - In December 2025, the A-share market showed a "high-level fluctuation and structural switching" pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.06% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 4.17%[7] - The average return of the stock portfolio in December was 6.20%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which rose by 2.28%[7] Stock Recommendations - **Hengrui Medicine (600276)**: Closing price at 59.57 CNY, focusing on innovative drugs with a projected EPS of 1.31 CNY for 2025[10][12] - **Luoyang Molybdenum (603993)**: Closing price at 20.00 CNY, benefiting from copper and gold business expansion, with an EPS forecast of 0.88 CNY[15][18] - **Huaxin Cement (600801)**: Closing price at 24.54 CNY, with a focus on overseas expansion and an EPS estimate of 1.42 CNY[19][22] - **Sanmei Co., Ltd. (603379)**: Closing price at 60.72 CNY, specializing in refrigerants, with an EPS forecast of 3.50 CNY[23][27] - **CATL (300750)**: Closing price at 367.26 CNY, with a valuation recovery theme and an EPS estimate of 15.00 CNY[28][31] - **Sungrow Power Supply (300274)**: Closing price at 171.04 CNY, benefiting from favorable conditions in new energy storage, with an EPS forecast of 7.12 CNY[32][35] - **Sany Heavy Industry (600031)**: Closing price at 21.13 CNY, focusing on engineering machinery with an EPS estimate of 0.99 CNY[36][39] - **Inovance Technology (300124)**: Closing price at 75.33 CNY, focusing on industrial control with an EPS forecast of 2.07 CNY[40][42] - **North Huachuang (002371)**: Closing price at 459.08 CNY, specializing in semiconductor equipment with an EPS estimate of 9.95 CNY[43][45] Risks and Considerations - The report indicates a medium to high risk level for the stock portfolio, emphasizing the need for cautious investment decisions based on the accuracy and completeness of the information provided[6][3] - Potential risks include macroeconomic fluctuations, raw material price volatility, and regulatory changes affecting industry dynamics[11][18][19]

中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2025-12-31 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 交易逻辑：碳酸锂供需供需延续偏紧格局，江西某云母矿复产预期延 后且尼日利亚锂矿政策有望调整，供应扰动风险增加；工业硅和多晶 硅供需趋松，但多晶硅收储平台成立，供应端收缩预期升温。中短期 来看，节前资金获利了结，碳酸锂等新能源金属宽幅震荡，但供应扰 动担忧支撑逻辑未有变化，可待碳酸锂止跌后继续关注低吸做多机 会。长期来看，硅供应端收缩预期较强，尤其多晶硅，价格重心可能 抬升；锂矿产能还处于上升阶段，但需求预期也在不断拔高，供需过 剩量预期在收窄，碳酸锂长期供需走向需要重新审视，年度供需拐点 可能提前出现。 ⼯业硅观点：供需驱动弱，硅价随情绪波动。 多晶硅观点：强预期VS弱现实，多晶硅价格延续⾼波动。 碳酸锂观点：情绪有所缓和，碳酸锂震荡⾛强。 节前资金谨慎，新能源金属宽幅震荡 新能源观点：节前资⾦谨慎，新能源⾦属宽幅震荡 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z0016667 ...

12月24日，内外盘铂族金属价格延续涨势。外盘方面，NYMEX铂期货主力合约最高升至2395.6美元/盎 司，NYMEX钯期货主力合约最高升至2058.5美元/盎司。内盘方面，截至下午收盘，广期所铂期货主力 2605合约涨停，涨幅7%，报657.65元/克；钯期货主力2605合约涨停，涨幅6.99%，报578.45元/克。 多重因素的共振推动铂、钯价格上涨 期货日报记者注意到，下半年以来，NYMEX铂期价累计涨幅超过70%，近期不断创出新高。数据显 示，今年1月初国内铂现货价格为227元/克，国内钯现货价格为249.5元/克。截至12月24日，国内铂现货 价格为599元/克，钯现货价格为480.5元/克，年内累计涨幅分别为163.9%、92.6%。 "铂、钯的基本面差异，主要来自需求端的增速差异。从需求结构来看，铂下游需求可分为汽车、工 业、首饰、投资四大领域，汽车领域需求占比约为四成，工业和珠宝投资需求分别约占三成；钯下游需 求相比铂更为集中，超过80%用于汽车尾气催化剂领域，工业需求约占16%，投资需求占比相对较 小。"王美丹解释称，虽然铂在汽车催化剂领域的需求略有减少，但工业需求和首饰消费市场逐步回 暖 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨金属、非金属与采矿 [Table_Title] 锂价再度突破，权益或将开启第二轮上涨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 宜春自然资源局拟对江特电机狮子岭矿等 27 宗已到期的采矿证进行注销，由于拟注销的矿权 均为停产矿山，本次事件对于实际供给影响偏小。但基于供需基本面修复预期日益强化，且当 前宁德云母复产时间不定，在前期商品和权益走势背离窗口下，第二轮趋势性行情或已在酝酿 之中。复盘上一轮周期，当前位置价格错配权益可看空间赔率仍较大。重视当前位置碳酸锂权 益的仓位配置。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 肖勇 叶如祯 王筱茜 肖百桓 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490519080004 SAC：S0490522080001 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BWM115 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 金属、非金属与采矿 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Titl ...

当前，全球货币与财政宽松预期增强，给贵金属价格带来了有力的支撑。在宏观环境不断变化的背景 下，部分贵金属品种也面临潜在的利空扰动。 短期利空扰动较多 全球主要经济体的货币政策动向是影响商品市场的核心因素之一。宏源期货研究院分析师王文虎表示， 美联储已进入降息周期，市场预计其2026及2027年均降息25个基点，且已于本月进行技术性扩表以维持 流动性。然而，美联储的货币政策路径存在不确定性。美联储主席候选人之一、前美联储理事凯文·沃 什可能倾向于采取"实用的货币主义"策略，即通过缩减资产负债表（QT）来控制通胀，为降低名义利 率创造空间。若其主张被采纳，可能在短期内影响市场对流动性扩张的预期，从而扰动贵金属价格。 与此同时，其他主要经济体的货币政策也在调整。王文虎认为，2025年12月，英国央行降息预期几乎无 悬念，日本央行则可能于2025年12月或2026年1月加息至0.75%，全球货币政策分化的图景总体上创造 了宽松的流动性环境，为贵金属"牛市"奠定了基调。 全球铂矿资源高度集中于南非、俄罗斯和津巴布韦等国家，中国铂金属供应主要来源于进口。铂金属市 场的基本面正因其日益凸显的"新能源金属"属性而受到关注。 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Dynamics - The global monetary and fiscal easing expectations are providing strong support for precious metal prices, although some precious metals face potential short-term negative disturbances [1] - The Federal Reserve has entered a rate-cutting cycle, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut in both 2026 and 2027, and has recently conducted technical balance sheet expansion to maintain liquidity [1] - Uncertainty in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path may affect market expectations for liquidity expansion, potentially disturbing precious metal prices [1] Group 2: Long-term Factors Supporting Precious Metals - Global debt and fiscal deficit expansion, along with ongoing central bank gold purchases, are long-term bullish factors for the precious metals market [2] - Gold and silver prices have risen significantly over the past three years, leading to potential technical selling pressure due to their overweight in the Bloomberg Commodity Index [2] - Despite short-term negative factors, the long-term core trading logic for gold and silver remains unchanged, driven by global "reflation" trades, monetary policy uncertainty, and geopolitical risks [2] Group 3: Platinum and Palladium Market Insights - The global platinum market is expected to face a tight supply-demand situation by 2026, with slow growth in production due to high mining costs and unstable power supply [3] - Platinum demand is supported by stricter automotive emissions standards, with automotive catalysts accounting for 42.5% of global platinum demand [3] - The palladium market is experiencing pressure from the increasing market share of electric vehicles, leading to a less optimistic long-term demand outlook for palladium [3]

当前，全球货币与财政宽松预期增强，给贵金属价格带来了有力的支撑。在宏观环境不断变化的背景 下，部分贵金属品种也面临潜在的利空扰动。在"期货大家谈——2025期货业盘点"系列访谈第六期中， 宏源期货研究院分析师王文虎解析了金、银、铂、钯价格集体反弹背后的逻辑与机会。 短期利空扰动较多 全球主要经济体的货币政策动向是影响商品市场的核心因素之一。王文虎表示，美联储已进入降息周 期，市场预计其2026及2027年均降息25个基点，且已于本月进行技术性扩表以维持流动性。然而，美联 储的货币政策路径存在不确定性。美联储主席候选人之一、前美联储理事凯文.沃什可能倾向于采取"实 用的货币主义"策略，即通过缩减资产负债表(QT)来控制通胀，为降低名义利率创造空间。若其主张被 采纳，可能在短期内影响市场对流动性扩张的预期，从而扰动贵金属价格。 新能源属性为铂、钯价格提供长期支撑 全球铂矿资源高度集中于南非、俄罗斯和津巴布韦等国家，中国铂金属供应主要来源于进口。铂金属市 场的基本面正因其日益凸显的"新能源金属"属性而受到关注。 王文虎认为，2026年全球铂供需偏紧。供应方面，深矿采掘成本高、电力供给不稳定、生产设备老化、 汽车报废 ...

这一战略举措不仅体现了盛达资源前瞻性的资源布局，更凸显了其在国内铜资源保障体系中的战略价 值。在我国铜资源对外依存度高达80%以上的背景下，这一位于东北地区的大型露天铜矿山的价值尤为 凸显。 12月8日晚间，盛达资源（000603.SZ）发布公告，宣布收购伊春金石矿业有限责任公司60%股权，金石 矿业的核心资产为位于黑龙江省大兴安岭新林区460高地项目，经评审备案地质资源量矿石量达超大规 模，资源丰厚，已探明铜金属量达154万吨。 对于盛达资源而言，此次资源并购是其"白银龙头 金铜两翼"战略的深度延伸。作为深耕有色金属、贵 金属采选多年的上市企业，盛达资源此前已通过四川鸿林矿业菜园子项目布局金矿资源，目前完成试 产，明年正式投产，将为盛达资源带来较大效益及回报。 此外，内蒙古金山矿业拥有的新巴尔虎右旗额仁陶勒盖银矿是国内单体银矿储量最大的独立大型银矿山 之一，资源开发前景广阔，特别是银、锰、金资源储量丰富。2024年，金山矿业完成技改，成效显著， 未来金山矿业银、金产出有望大幅提升，为企业长远发展提供保障。此次金石矿业460高地项目加入， 盛达资源铜资源储备大幅提升，白银、黄金、铜金属资源协同发展，为公司未来 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, and the supply - demand tightness persists. It continues to lead the trend of new energy metals. In the short - term, after the negative impact on investor sentiment, the price stops falling and rebounds. In the long - term, the supply - demand surplus is expected to narrow, and the annual supply - demand inflection point may appear earlier [2]. - The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both weak, and the silicon price fluctuates in a range. The supply is affected by the dry season in the southwest and potential environmental protection and power - limit factors in the north, while the demand from polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy is weakening [6]. - The policy expectation for polysilicon is rising again, and the price fluctuates at a high level. The supply is shrinking due to the dry season, and the "anti - involution" policy is expected to have an impact. The demand is weakening in November [7][9]. - The supply - demand gap of lithium carbonate is slightly improved, and the lithium price fluctuates at a high level. The supply is expected to remain strong, the demand is better than in previous years, and the inventory is being depleted. The short - term supply - demand is in tight balance [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Information Analysis**: The spot price is stable, the inventory is under pressure to accumulate, the production in November decreased, the export in October decreased, the photovoltaic new - installed capacity in October increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, and the organic silicon industry may enter a production - cut and price - support stage [6]. - **Main Logic**: The supply in the southwest is expected to decline slightly in December, and the demand from polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy is weakening. The inventory is high, and attention should be paid to the progress of new warehouse receipt registration [6]. - **Outlook**: If the organic silicon industry cuts production, the demand will further weaken, and the inventory - accumulation pressure may increase. The price is expected to fluctuate [6][7]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Information Analysis**: The transaction price of N - type re - feeding materials is stable, the warehouse receipt quantity has increased slightly, the export and import volumes have decreased, the photovoltaic new - installed capacity from January to October increased year - on - year, and the industry association is promoting "anti - involution" work [7]. - **Main Logic**: The policy expectation is rising, the warehouse receipt quantity is low, providing support for near - month contracts. The supply is shrinking in the dry season, and the demand is weakening in November. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [7][9]. - **Outlook**: The "anti - involution" policy can boost the price, but the actual demand is weak, so the price is expected to fluctuate widely [9]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - **Information Analysis**: On December 1st, the closing price of the main contract increased, the total position increased, the spot price increased, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased [9][10]. - **Main Logic**: The supply is expected to remain strong, the demand is better than in previous years, and the inventory is being depleted. The short - term supply - demand is in tight balance, and the resumption of production of Jiaxiawo is a key factor [11]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand is in tight balance, but the sentiment has cooled down, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [11]. 3.2 Market Monitoring The report only lists the sub - items of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate in the market monitoring section but does not provide specific content. 3.3 Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, special index, and plate index of CITIC Futures show different degrees of increase. The comprehensive index includes the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial product index, and PPI commodity index, with increases of 0.76%, 1.09%, 0.74%, and 1.26% respectively. The new energy commodity index has a daily increase of 0.91%, a 5 - day increase of 1.94%, a 1 - month increase of 7.96%, and a year - to - date increase of 11.19% [53][54].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of platinum and palladium futures on November 27 marks a significant addition to the green energy metal sector, following the introduction of other commodities like industrial silicon and lithium carbonate, indicating a growing focus on supporting the green economy [1][4]. Market Performance - On the first trading day, platinum futures recorded a trading volume of 66,700 contracts, with an open interest of 7,600 contracts and a transaction value of 29.231 billion yuan. Palladium futures had a trading volume of 34,200 contracts, an open interest of 2,700 contracts, and a transaction value of 13.049 billion yuan, reflecting a stable market entry [1][9]. - The main platinum contract opened at 441 yuan/gram and closed at 430.3 yuan/gram, up 6.25% from the listing benchmark price of 405 yuan/gram. The main palladium contract opened at 377 yuan/gram and closed at 370.6 yuan/gram, up 1.53% from the listing benchmark price of 365 yuan/gram [5][6]. Industry Impact - Platinum and palladium are critical materials in automotive emissions control, wind energy development, and hydrogen energy, with applications in green development accounting for approximately 60% and 80% respectively [4][7]. - The introduction of these futures is expected to enhance risk management for upstream and downstream enterprises in the platinum group metal industry, stabilize operations, and improve market efficiency [3][4]. Strategic Collaboration - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association plans to strengthen its strategic cooperation with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange to support the development of futures derivatives for the green industry [3]. - Companies like Jinchuan Group and Yunnan Precious Metals Group are actively participating in the futures market, utilizing these tools for better risk management and operational efficiency [8][10][11]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the futures market will provide a transparent and authoritative pricing mechanism, enhancing the price discovery function and increasing China's influence in the global platinum and palladium markets [7][8]. - The futures contracts are expected to facilitate a more standardized and efficient operation within the industry, promoting a shift towards a more resilient and efficient supply chain [11][12].