Summary of Global Commodities Research Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global commodities market, particularly oil and base metals, highlighting recent trends and forecasts for 2025. Key Points Oil Market Insights - Global oil demand improved in early May, averaging 103.6 million barrels per day (mbd), which is a year-over-year increase of 440 thousand barrels per day (kbd) but still 240 kbd below expectations [6] - Global liquid stocks increased by 38 million barrels (mb) in the second week of May, driven by a 44 mb build in crude oil stocks [6] - Despite a 22% decline in crude prices since mid-January, refined product prices and refining margins have remained steady, with US gasoline cracks surging [5] - Structural downsizing of refining capacity in the US and Europe is expected to lead to a gasoline deficit, pulling supply from other regions [5] - Resilience in crude and refined product prices is anticipated to persist through the second quarter of 2025 before deteriorating in the latter half of the year [5] Base Metals Outlook - A better-than-expected US-China trade reprieve has reduced recession probabilities, diminishing downside risks to base metals demand and prices [8] - Near-term base metals price forecasts have been revised higher due to macroeconomic shifts [8] - Concerns remain about the longevity of demand pull-forward from China, with a potential bearish reckoning expected in the second half of 2025 [10] Market Positioning and Flows - The estimated value of global commodity market open interest recovered by 4% week-over-week to $1.43 trillion, with significant inflows into metals and agricultural markets [9] - Contract-based inflows increased to a seven-week high of $27 billion, with nearly $15 billion flowing into metals markets [9] Tariff Implications - The US-China trade agreement includes a 90-day reprieve of tariffs, which is expected to boost China's GDP by approximately 1.5%, raising full-year growth to 4.8% [12] - The average tariff rate on China is projected to be 41%, while China's average tariff rate on the US is 28% [12] Future Projections - The report anticipates a tightening of supply in base metals, which could support prices later in 2025 [28] - The agricultural markets are expected to remain fundamentally driven in the short term, with potential macro-driven inflows contingent on trade developments [10] Additional Insights - The rig count in major tight oil basins decreased by three, with the Permian losing three rigs, although production impacts are expected to be delayed due to operational efficiencies [10] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators and trade relations as they significantly influence commodity prices and market dynamics [10][19] Conclusion - The global commodities market is experiencing a complex interplay of demand recovery, structural changes in refining capacity, and macroeconomic factors, particularly influenced by US-China trade relations. The outlook for both oil and base metals remains cautiously optimistic, with potential volatility expected in the latter half of 2025.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in gold prices, highlighting the potential for gold to reach $3,200, influenced by various factors including U.S.-China relations, interest rate movements, and the economic environment in the U.S. [4][28] Summary by Sections CFTC Data and Market Sentiment - The article emphasizes the importance of the CFTC data released weekly, which reflects market sentiment towards precious metals and short/medium-term price judgments [3][4]. Gold Price Trends - As of March 31, international gold prices reached a new high of $3,100, with a potential to stabilize around $3,200 before further movements depending on market focus [4][28]. - The article notes that gold prices have risen significantly since last November, when they dropped to around $2,590 [4][28]. Fund Positioning - As of March 25, net long positions in COMEX gold decreased by 3.7% to 599 tons, marking the 76th consecutive week of net long positions [5][9]. - The article indicates that the net long positions in silver also fell, while platinum saw a significant increase in short positions [5][9]. Market Dynamics - The article highlights that despite rising gold prices, there is currently a lack of excessive greed in the market, which could indicate further upward potential [4][27]. - It also mentions that the performance of gold and other risk assets may be affected by fluctuations in the U.S. stock market [4][28]. Economic Indicators - The article discusses the probability of the U.S. Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in June, which could further influence gold prices [26][28]. - It suggests that the market is currently pricing in multiple rate cuts, which could lead to increased volatility in the dollar and subsequently benefit gold prices [26][28]. Future Outlook - The article predicts that geopolitical risks and economic conditions will play a crucial role in shaping the future of gold prices, with a particular focus on the potential for a significant downturn in copper prices due to changing demand dynamics [19][29]. - It concludes that the next 12 to 24 months will be critical for the U.S. economy, especially if inflation pressures resurface alongside interest rate cuts [32][28].