Group 1 - The article emphasizes a long-only investment strategy that evaluates companies from an operational and buy-and-hold perspective, focusing on long-term earnings power and competitive dynamics rather than market-driven price actions [1] - Quipus Capital's approach suggests that most recommendations will be holds, indicating a cautious stance in a bullish market, with only a small fraction of companies deemed suitable for buying at any given time [1] - The hold articles are intended to provide valuable information for future investors and introduce a healthy skepticism towards the prevailing market optimism [1] Group 2 - The analyst has disclosed a beneficial long position in the shares of TOUR, indicating personal investment interest in the company [2] - The article reflects the author's personal opinions and is not influenced by compensation from any company mentioned, ensuring an independent viewpoint [2] - Seeking Alpha clarifies that past performance does not guarantee future results and that the views expressed may not represent the platform as a whole, highlighting the diversity of opinions among its analysts [3]

Group 1 - Tripadvisor stock reached a level not seen since May 2024, indicating a significant recovery and growth in its market performance [1] - Argan shares have increased fivefold since their March 2024 base breakout, showcasing strong investor confidence and market interest [1] - Nu Holdings also hit a high, indicating a positive trend in its stock performance as it looks to climb for six consecutive weeks [1] Group 2 - Tripadvisor's RS Rating has jumped to 81, reflecting improved relative strength in the stock market [4] - The stock market is currently eyeing new highs, driven by strong performances from companies like Broadcom and the anticipation of upcoming job reports [2][4] - A significant backlog of $1.9 billion has been driven by factors such as Trump tariffs and electric vehicle demand, highlighting the impact of external economic factors on market dynamics [4]

Core Thesis - Trip.com Group Limited (TCOM) presents a compelling investment case despite a modest 20x PE valuation and 5% free cash flow yield, indicating a mature and fundamentally sound business rather than a "hidden gem" [2] - The stock has underperformed this year, down 8% YTD, compared to peers like Tencent, which is up 24%, primarily due to investor concerns over margin pressure from ongoing investments in Asia and Europe [2] Growth Potential - TCOM is a dominant brand in China, well-positioned in an oversupplied hotel market, with high-quality products and services, and resilient post-COVID fundamentals [2] - The underpenetrated travel market in China, where hundreds of millions have yet to fly, offers significant long-term growth upside [2] International Expansion - TCOM's international expansion leverages proprietary Chinese app and algorithm technology, mobilizing 700 million Chinese MAUs to attract partnerships from hotels and transport providers abroad, providing a competitive edge over peers like Meituan [3] - Key catalysts expected in the second half of 2025 include better-than-anticipated margin performance, increased capital returns following the MMYT stake sale, dividends, and potential buybacks [3] Financial Metrics - Revenue growth and margin expansion since 2019 are comparable to Booking, with TCOM trading at 20x PE versus Booking at 30x PE [4] - Upside scenarios include 15% top-line growth, margin expansion to 35%, and multiple expansion, potentially tripling returns over five years [4] - Base-case projections maintain margins and multiples, offering 2x returns, while downside risks include competitive pressures and missed catalysts causing a 25% decline [4] Recent Performance - The stock price has appreciated approximately 27% since previous coverage, reflecting the successful execution of the bullish thesis [6] - The current perspective emphasizes margin resilience, capital returns, and growth in Chinese outbound travel as key catalysts for future performance [6]

AI's Impact on Travel - AI 被视为旅游业的生存威胁和机遇，Expedia 认为 AI 可以帮助旅客制定完美的旅行计划 [2][3] - Expedia 利用 AI 更具预测性、主动性和个性化，帮助旅客创造美好的旅程，同时保持人性化服务 [4][5] - Expedia 密切关注消费者行为的变化，与大型科技公司合作，确保在旅客搜索方式改变时，能够快速提供所需信息 [6] - 尽管 AI 概述可能导致点击量减少，但带来的流量质量更高 [7] Business Performance & Strategy - Expedia 重视业务的平衡和健康发展，消费者业务、B2B 业务和利润率都在增长，同时投资于 AI [8][9] - B2B 业务增长迅速，帮助全球酒店合作伙伴 [9] - Expedia 在过去一年中致力于重新定位品牌、调整忠诚度计划，尤其是在美国以外的地区实现增长 [8] Travel Trends & Insurance - 高端旅游市场表现出很强的韧性，而低端市场的需求相对较弱 [13][14] - 美国机场第三季度的客流量同比增长，但来自美国以外的游客数量仍未达到去年同期水平 [14] - 旅游保险业务正在增长，因为旅客希望在预订时获得保障，以应对可能出现的问题 [10] - Expedia 正在 Verbo 上测试天气承诺保险，如果旅行期间下雨天数超过一定数量，保险就会生效 [11] Market Performance - Consumer discretionary sector 表现良好，本季度增长达到两位数，其中 Tesla 领涨，涨幅超过 30% [1] - Expedia 股价有望创下自 2023 年 12 月以来的最佳季度表现，投资者继续押注强劲的旅游需求 [1] - Arionics 的股票在过去 3 个月上涨了 37% [14]

Economic Overview - The global economy is facing challenges such as persistent inflation, tariff issues, and geopolitical tensions, leading to softer discretionary spending in sectors like travel and restaurants [1] - Despite these challenges, some companies maintain stability due to their well-diversified portfolios [1] Investment Insights - The logistics sector has seen significant interest, with a focus on stock investing and macroeconomic analysis, particularly in ASEAN and NYSE/NASDAQ stocks [1] - There is a trend of diversification in investment portfolios, moving beyond traditional savings in banks and properties to include stocks across various industries and market capitalizations [1] - The US market has become a focus for investors, with a notable increase in trading activities since 2020, highlighting the importance of comparative analysis between different markets [1]

Economic Overview - The global economy is facing challenges such as persistent inflation, tariff issues, and geopolitical tensions, leading to softer discretionary spending in sectors like travel and restaurants [1] - Despite these challenges, some companies maintain stability due to their well-diversified portfolios [1] Investment Insights - The logistics sector has seen significant interest, with a focus on stock investing and macroeconomic analysis, particularly in ASEAN and NYSE/NASDAQ stocks [1] - There is a trend of diversifying investment portfolios beyond traditional savings in banks and properties, with a notable rise in popularity of insurance companies in the Philippines since 2014 [1] - Investments span various industries and market capitalizations, with some stocks held for retirement and others for trading profits [1] - The US market has also become a focus for investment, with a growing awareness and engagement in trading activities since 2020 [1]

Core Insights - Tuniu Corporation is a Chinese online travel agency facing challenges in generating returns that exceed its cost of capital, with a ROIC of 1.27% and a WACC of 14.54% [2][6] - The company's ROIC to WACC ratio of 0.088 indicates inefficiency in creating value over its financing costs [2] - Comparatively, Cheetah Mobile Inc. has a significantly negative ROIC of -17.63% and a WACC of 3.63%, resulting in a ROIC to WACC ratio of -4.861, highlighting severe underperformance [3] - Leju Holdings Limited shows an even more alarming scenario with a ROIC of -540.32% against a WACC of 366.63%, leading to a ROIC to WACC ratio of -1.47, indicating extreme inefficiency [4] - Xunlei Limited and Phoenix New Media Limited also report negative ROIC to WACC ratios of -0.408 and -1.757, respectively, with Xunlei being the least negative among peers, suggesting a slightly better position [5][6]

Group 1 - The Zhengzhou Market Supervision Administration conducted an administrative interview with Ctrip Travel Network for violating the Electronic Commerce Law and regulations against unfair competition, specifically regarding unreasonable restrictions on transactions and pricing for platform operators [1] - The administration issued a "Notice of Correction" on September 4, 2025, requiring Ctrip to rectify its practices and ensure compliance with market regulations [1] - Ctrip is mandated to revise contract terms, optimize pricing tools, and establish a long-term compliance mechanism to prevent similar issues in the future [1] Group 2 - The meeting emphasized that fair competition is central to a market economy, urging internet platform companies to enhance legal awareness and actively cooperate with regulatory authorities [2] - Companies are encouraged to correct unreasonable restrictions, respect merchants' autonomy, and address issues like "mandatory activation and inability to exit" [2] - The Zhengzhou Market Supervision Administration will continue to monitor the progress of corrections and conduct inspections to ensure companies fulfill their responsibilities in maintaining a fair and orderly market [2]

Group 1: Sands Capital Global Growth Strategy Overview - Sands Capital released its second-quarter 2025 investor letter, highlighting a flexible approach to identify promising growth companies globally [1] - The Global Growth portfolio achieved a return of 21.7% in the quarter, outperforming the MSCI ACWI index, which returned 11.5% [1] - This quarter's performance marked the fourth best since the fund's inception in 2008, both in absolute and relative terms [1] Group 2: Airbnb, Inc. (NASDAQ:ABNB) Analysis - Airbnb's stock experienced a one-month return of -2.64% and a 52-week decline of 0.62%, with a market capitalization of $74.485 billion as of September 16, 2025 [2] - Sands Capital exited its position in Airbnb due to decelerating top-line growth, which fell from approximately 40% in 2022 to less than 10% in Q1 2025, and underwhelming new growth initiatives [3] - Despite recognizing the potential for profit upside through margin expansion, Airbnb was considered a minor position in the Global Growth portfolio, representing less than 100 basis points [3] Group 3: Market Position and Revenue - Airbnb reported revenue of $3.1 billion in Q2 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 13% [4] - The company is not among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with 79 hedge fund portfolios holding its stock at the end of Q2 2025, up from 66 in the previous quarter [4] - There is a belief that certain AI stocks present greater upside potential and carry less downside risk compared to Airbnb [4]

Core Insights - Airbnb's growth has significantly slowed, with revenue growth rates dropping from 40% in 2022 to 12% in 2024, and only 6% in Q1 2025 [2][3] - CEO Brian Chesky expressed dissatisfaction with the current growth rate and aims for the company to achieve growth in the teens and eventually over 20% [3] - The company is focusing on accelerating its core home rental business while diversifying into additional services and experiences [3][4] Revenue Growth Trends - Revenue growth for Airbnb has been as follows: 40% in 2022, 18% in 2023, 12% in 2024, 6% in Q1 2025, and 13% in Q2 2025 [2] Strategic Initiatives - Chesky indicated that Airbnb is in a phase of reinventing itself, aiming to expand its home rental business both domestically and internationally, and to grow its hotel offerings and services [4][8] - The company relaunched its experiences and introduced new services in May, allowing travelers and locals to book various on-demand services [9] Vision for the Future - Chesky envisions Airbnb as an "everything app," inspired by Amazon's evolution, and aims for it to become an AI-first application [10] - The CEO believes that growth will accelerate in the coming year, although he refrained from providing specific guidance [11]