近期，县市场监管局开展了食品抽样检测（监督抽检），本次抽检蔬菜制品、粮食加工品、食用农产品、餐饮食品、肉制品、乳制品6个大类，共计25批 次。根据食品安全国家标准检验和判定：抽样检验合格24批次，不合格1批次，已过复检期，不合格项目涉及食品添加剂超标。具体情况通告如下：一、食 品添加剂超标 遂昌大树下鱼头馆销售的黄瓜干，亮蓝、柠檬黄不符合食品安全国家标准规定。对抽检中发现的不合格产品，我局已依法予以查处，核查处 置情况后期会向社会公布。特此公告。 1、食品抽检合格结果表 序 号 样品名 称 规格 商标 生产加工 日期 生产单位 生产企业地址 受检单位 受检单位地址 检 验 结 果 备注 1 地方小 白兔榨 菜丝 50克/ 袋 地方小 白兔和 图形 2025-05- 23（生产 日期） 海宁市神农小 吃佬食品股份 有限公司 海宁市斜桥镇榨菜科技工 业园区 遂昌王志明 商店 浙江 符 合 2 小米辣 （酱腌 菜） 750g/ 袋 香三湘 2025-06- 05（生产 日期） 隆回军杰酱品 有限公司 湖南省隆回县工业集中区 遂昌王志明 商店 浙江 符 合 | 2 | 小米辣 （酱腌 菜） | 750g/ 袋 | 香 ...

Economic Indicators - China's September exports rose by +8.3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of +6.6% and marking the largest increase in six months [1] - September imports in China increased by +6.4% year-on-year, surpassing expectations of +1.8% and representing the largest rise in 17 months [1] Market Reactions - Stock indexes experienced a sharp rise on Monday, recovering some losses from the previous Friday's plunge, driven by a softening of the Trump administration's rhetoric towards China [5][6] - The S&P 500 Index closed up +1.56%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index rose by +1.29%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index increased by +2.18% [6] Corporate Earnings - More than 22% of S&P 500 companies provided guidance for Q3 earnings that are expected to exceed analysts' expectations, the highest in a year [10] - Q3 profits are projected to rise by +7.2%, the smallest increase in two years, while sales growth is expected to slow to +5.9% from 6.4% in Q2 [10] Sector Performance - Chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks rallied, with Broadcom's shares jumping over +9% following a multi-year agreement with OpenAI [5][15] - Rare earth stocks surged due to tensions between China and the US, with Critical Metals closing up more than +53% [17] - Mining stocks also increased as gold prices rose more than +3% to an all-time high, benefiting companies like Coeur Mining and Newmont [18] Upcoming Events - The market will focus on trade or tariff news and attempts to reopen the government, with major banks set to release Q3 earnings results [9]

Core Viewpoint - J.M. Smucker Company has filed a lawsuit against Trader Joe's, alleging trademark infringement related to its Uncrustables brand of frozen peanut butter and jelly sandwiches [1] Company Summary - J.M. Smucker Company is the maker of Jif peanut butter and is taking legal action to protect its Uncrustables brand, which is a significant product line for the company [1] - The lawsuit indicates the company's commitment to safeguarding its intellectual property and brand identity in the competitive food industry [1] Industry Summary - The case highlights ongoing issues within the food industry regarding trademark protection and brand differentiation, particularly in the frozen food segment [1] - As grocery chains expand their private label offerings, the potential for trademark disputes may increase, impacting brand strategies across the industry [1]

Core Insights - The consumer staples sector, particularly food and beverage companies, has faced significant challenges due to tariff impacts, with many stocks underperforming the S&P 500 since April [4][5][11] - Major companies in the sector reported declines in operating income and net sales, with some experiencing drops of 20% or more [1][6][10] Company Performance - Constellation Brands reported a 13% decline in operating income and a 15% drop in net sales for its fiscal Q2 2026 [1] - Hormel Foods experienced a 20% decline in stock value, citing unexpected surges in commodity input costs [6] - Molson Coors Beverage's stock is down 25%, with upcoming earnings reports anticipated to provide insights on sales and pricing [7] - Keurig Dr. Pepper also saw a 25% decline, with management highlighting challenges from rising costs and tariffs [8] - Conagra Brands reported a 5.8% year-over-year drop in revenue and a 26% decline in adjusted earnings per share, while maintaining its full-year guidance [10] Sector Trends - The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Trust has underperformed the S&P 500 by over 30 percentage points since early April, indicating a broader struggle within the sector [4] - Only two out of 37 components in the trust have outperformed the S&P 500 since tariff announcements, highlighting the severity of the downturn [3] - The defensive nature of food companies has been challenged, as the expected stability from consistent consumer demand has not materialized amid tariff turmoil [5] Economic Environment - The macroeconomic environment remains volatile, with low consumer sentiment impacting consumption trends [8] - Rising inflation and tariff costs are expected to continue affecting profit margins and consumer behavior, particularly during the critical holiday quarter [11]

Market Overview - European stocks are expected to open mostly higher, with the U.K.'s FTSE index seen opening just below the flatline, Germany's DAX up 0.3%, France's CAC 40 up 0.26%, and Italy's FTSE MIB up 0.54% [1] - The positive start follows a negative close for regional bourses last week due to U.S. President Trump's threats of new tariffs against China in response to China's export controls on rare earth minerals [2] Trade Relations - Trump suggested in a social media post that he might not follow through on his tariff threats, stating that trade relations with China "will all be fine" [3] - China responded by asserting that it is "not afraid of" a trade war and accused the U.S. of a "double standard" regarding Trump's promise of additional 100% tariffs on Chinese imports [3] Market Reactions - Asia-Pacific markets fell overnight amid concerns over renewed trade tensions, while U.S. stock futures rose, rebounding from a previous sell-off after Trump's reassurances [4] - Investors are anticipating financial reports from companies such as ASML, LVMH, and Nestle as the third quarter earnings season begins [4] Upcoming Events - Investors will be monitoring news from the IMF and World Bank annual meeting in Washington this week [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Expert Call on China's Freshly Made Drink (FMD) Market Industry Overview - The discussion focused on the freshly made drink (FMD) market in China, particularly the performance of brands like Luckin, Cotti, and Chagee in Guangdong province [1][2]. Core Insights Sales Performance - **Cotti**: Experienced a 50% sequential drop in delivery volume due to normalization of platform subsidies, particularly from JD [1][7]. Current daily order volume is approximately 350 cups, down from around 500 cups in May-June [9]. - **Luckin**: Saw sequential order volume growth in Q3, supported by participation in the Pin Hao Fan channel since July, despite a decline in average selling price (ASP) to RMB 10-11 per cup from approximately RMB 13 last year [1][8]. - **Chagee**: Maintained a stable daily volume of around 600 cups, with a net profit margin of 10%-15% [1][10]. Profitability Trends - **Cotti**: Net profit margin dropped significantly to below 15% from 25% when volumes were higher [9]. - **Luckin**: Net profit margin declined to 8%-10% from 10%-12% in June due to a higher delivery mix [1][8]. - **Chagee**: Profitability remained stable as the brand did not engage in subsidy activities [1][10]. Brand Comments - **Luckin**: Noted for its strong digital operation capabilities, including flexible discounting and precise ingredient preparation, contributing to its better performance compared to Cotti [1][8]. - **Cotti**: Faces challenges due to low customer loyalty and lack of hit products, with an estimated 10% of its stores operating at a loss, potentially leading to closures [1][9]. - **Chagee**: Experiencing pressure from declining product momentum and increased competition, but plans to keep stores open as long as they remain profitable [1][10]. Additional Insights - **Subsidy Trends**: The normalization of subsidies has impacted profitability across brands, with JD's per order profit declining to levels similar to Ele.me due to reduced subsidies [1][7]. - **Market Competition**: Intense price competition persists, but the expert believes current prices may be at the bottom, with no further declines expected as the off-peak season approaches [1][13]. - **Future Store Openings**: The expert expressed reluctance to open new stores due to intensified competition, preferring to consider Mixue stores if opportunities arise [1][12]. Conclusion - The FMD market in China is experiencing divergent performance among key players, influenced by subsidy normalization, competitive pressures, and brand-specific operational efficiencies. The expert's insights highlight the need for brands to adapt to changing market dynamics to maintain profitability and market share [1].

Group 1: Quarterly Earnings Reports - Major companies like Pepsi, Delta, and Levi have started reporting quarterly results, indicating the health of the global consumer [1] - A significant wave of earnings reports from mega-banks and other key players such as ASML, Taiwan Semiconductor, and Johnson & Johnson is expected next week [1] - The busiest period for Q3 earnings is anticipated in the last week of October, with a heavy reporting schedule from mid-October through mid-November [1] Group 2: Gold Market Insights - Gold futures have recently surpassed $4,000/oz for the first time, generating widespread discussion in financial news [2] - Various financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, have made bullish forecasts for gold prices, with predictions reaching as high as $4,900/oz by the end of next year [3] - The current volatility in gold prices is seen as a reflection of broader market conditions, with many stocks performing well due to various narratives, including advancements in AI and government spending [4]

Core Insights - PepsiCo's shares increased as investors reacted positively to its product refreshes and wellness innovations, alongside plans for consistent growth in snacks and beverages [1] Financial Performance - The company reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $2.29, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of $2.26 [1] - Quarterly sales reached $23.937 billion, reflecting a 2.6% year-over-year increase, exceeding expectations of $23.827 billion [1] Analyst Commentary - Bank of America Securities analyst Peter T. Galbo maintained a Neutral rating on PepsiCo, raising the price target from $150 to $155 [2] - The analyst adjusted the fiscal year 2025 EPS estimate to $8.12 from $8.04, citing a softer foreign exchange impact [2] - Near-term share performance is expected to depend on improvements in North America organic sales with upcoming product launches [2] Sales and Product Strategy - Sales in the PepsiCo Foods North America (PFNA) segment, including Siete, remained flat year-over-year, despite challenges in salty snacks [3] - The company aims for sequential organic growth through restaging of Lay's and Tostitos, focusing on health and wellness innovations across various brands [3] Volume and Growth Projections - Underlying volumes in the PepsiCo Beverages North America (PBNA) segment fell by 1% year-over-year, excluding a 300 basis points drag from exiting case-pack water [4] - Management plans to reaccelerate growth with new formulations for Muscle Milk and innovations across Gatorade, Pepsi, and Mountain Dew [4] - The analyst updated the fiscal year 2026 quarterly organic growth projections to +2.1%, +2.4%, +3.6%, and +3.9%, indicating sequential improvement [4] Long-term Outlook - EPS estimates for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 were increased to $8.60 and $9.10, respectively [5] - The company is viewed as defensive amid a potential U.S. economic slowdown, with a balanced approach to growth, dividends, and buybacks [5] - PepsiCo shares rose by 3.61% to $149.94 at the time of publication [5]

Core Viewpoint - PepsiCo is actively reshaping its portfolio and reducing costs in response to scrutiny from activist investor Elliott Investment Management, emphasizing a sense of urgency in its strategic initiatives [1][3]. Group 1: Company Strategy - Elliott Investment Management, managing a $4 billion stake in PepsiCo, has called for a review of the company's food and drinks businesses in North America due to poor financial results [2]. - CEO Ramon Laguarta stated that most of Elliott's suggestions align with PepsiCo's Strategy 2030, indicating that the company is already acting on these ideas [3]. - Both PepsiCo and Elliott agree that the business is undervalued and see opportunities for improvement through urgent interventions [4]. Group 2: Innovation and Product Development - PepsiCo is relaunching its Lay's, Tostitos, and Gatorade brands, with a global rebrand for Lay's and a new lower sugar variant of Gatorade that contains 75% less sugar than the original [5]. - The company plans to eliminate artificial food dyes and flavors from Tostitos and Lay's by the end of the year and is launching a 'NKD' line for Doritos and Cheetos that will be free of artificial colors and flavors [6]. - Ongoing innovation includes the relaunch of Muscle Milk ready-to-drink shakes and a new Propel product targeting GLP-1 consumers, featuring special electrolytes, high fiber content, and good protein levels [7].

Core Insights - JM Smucker (SJM) is highlighted as a company deserving attention due to its strong financial metrics and market position [2] - The company offers a diverse range of branded food and beverage products, which include coffee, peanut butter, specialty spreads, pet food, and cooking ingredients [3] Financial Performance - JM Smucker boasts a free cash flow yield of 6.0%, which is considered high compared to peers [7] - The company has demonstrated solid fundamentals with a 3-year average revenue growth of 2.9% and an operating margin of 16.2% [7] - Currently, SJM stock is trading 16% below its 2-year high and 5.2% below its 1-month high, with a price-to-sales ratio lower than its 3-year average [7] Investment Returns - Historical data indicates average forward returns of 10.4% over 6 months and 20.4% over 12 months [8] - The win rate for selections yielding positive returns stands at approximately 74% over a 12-month period [8] - The investment strategy employed is not overly reliant on market downturns, yielding an average return of nearly 18% over 12 months with a 70% win rate even in non-crash periods [8] Market Context - The Trefis High Quality Portfolio, which includes SJM, has a history of outperforming the S&P 500 over the previous 4-year period, delivering superior returns with reduced risk [10]