中国银河证券ICGS 行业点评报告·消费行业 消费温和复苏，悦已型春节消费斩露头角 2026年02月22日 核心观点 :guximin_vi@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522070002 免签政策的持续 张迪 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 消费温和复苏，消费结构、消费格局变化更受瞩目：1）春节期间消费被寄 分析师 予厚望，政府发力组织 乐购新春" 春节特别活动， 发文 《积极推动物价合 理回升》， 针对互联网平台推动反垄断、反内卷。 2）消费呈现温和复苏的迹 何伟 象，包括客流的稳步增长， 以及核心商圈、 重点零售和餐饮企业相关消费的 ：hewei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 增长。部分消费品、 服务消费价格的提升。3）但市场并不认同消费的全面复 分析师登记编码：S0130525010001 苏，春节期间香港市场 必选消费指数、 非必选消费指数分别下 陈柏儒 美团2月13日公布 :chenbairu_yj @chinastock.com.cn 跌1.31%、 下跌3.0% 消费相 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the vibrant atmosphere and consumer engagement in Beijing's Dajixiang area during the Spring Festival, showcasing a blend of traditional and modern elements in the shopping experience [2][3]. Group 1: Consumer Engagement and Activities - Dajixiang has become a popular destination for families during the Spring Festival, with various attractions such as a hundred-meter-long lantern corridor and handmade crafts from remote regions, driving significant foot traffic [2]. - The "Dajizhi Heart" light installation in the underground level has attracted visitors, enhancing the festive ambiance and encouraging social media sharing [3]. - The city organized over 460 themed activities under "Le Gou New Spring · Jing Cai Four Seasons," resulting in a collective surge in consumer activity across multiple shopping districts [3]. Group 2: Sales and Consumer Trends - During the Spring Festival, monitored retail sectors, including department stores and restaurants, achieved a total sales revenue of 8.45 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.4% [4]. - The total foot traffic in 60 key shopping districts reached approximately 51.09 million, marking a 5.8% increase compared to the previous year, with total consumption amounting to 15.43 billion yuan, up by 2.2% [4]. - The influx of inbound tourists contributed significantly to consumer spending, with a reported 73.2% increase in purchase-related expenditures [4].

被美最高法叫停此前关税，特朗普竟搬出《1974年贸易法》向全球加征关税15%，全球贸易不确定性再 升级。 当地时间2月20日，美国联邦最高法院裁定，特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）实施 的大规模全球关税缺乏法律依据。 美国总统特朗普的关税政策是其经济政策的关键组成部分，最高法院的裁决标志着对他权力的一次重大 制约，也是对其第二个任期经济议程的一次沉重打击。 判决公布后，特朗普迅速宣布将通过其他法律手段推出新的10%全球关税，为期150天，并于当地时间 21日把这一关税水平提高至15%。特朗普在社交平台发文称，接下来几个月里，美国政府将确定并颁布 新的"合法关税"。 特朗普的反应表明，他并不打算就此鸣金收兵，而是要换一条路继续往前冲。 特朗普于2025年2月首次援引IEEPA，对来自中国、墨西哥和加拿大等国的商品加征关税。 数月后，在其所谓的"解放日"将关税范围迅速扩大至几乎所有国家，税率区间为10%至50%。特朗普将 长期贸易逆差界定为"非同寻常的威胁"，并以此作为进一步征税的依据。据沃顿商学院估计，在IEEPA 之下，特朗普征收了约1750亿美元的关税。 当地时间2026年2月20日，美国 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report This year's Spring Festival holiday had unique advantages, including the longest duration in history and a consumption - stimulating activity. It showed excellent performance in multiple dimensions, especially in travel and consumption. The real - estate market showed signs of hitting the bottom, while the film market was dismal. Overseas capital markets had various trends due to factors like Fed's FOMC meeting minutes, geopolitical conflicts, and AI industry development [2][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Travel - The Spring Festival travel rush saw a continuous increase in long - distance travel. The total cross - regional passenger flow from February 2nd to 21st this year increased by 5.4% compared to the same period in 2025 and 26.3% compared to 2019, reaching a record high. The number of passengers in various transportation modes increased by about 5% - 6%. The self - driving travel enthusiasm was significantly boosted, with the national population migration scale index from the 15th day of the twelfth lunar month to the fifth day of the first lunar month increasing by 22.2% this year compared to 2025 [3][9][12]. - The difference in growth rates between the data from the Ministry of Transport and Baidu Migration was likely due to statistical methods. The non - operational passenger volume on roads accounted for 81.3% of the total cross - regional passenger flow, indicating that self - driving was the main mode of travel during the Spring Festival [16][17]. Consumption - Retail, catering, and service consumption were active. The average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises in the first four days of the holiday increased by 8.6% compared to the same period in 2025, higher than the growth rates during the May Day and National Day holidays in 2025. The consumption of domestic tourism on key platforms increased by 4.5% in the first three days of the holiday. The rental car order volume on key platforms increased by 26%, and the north - south cross - region orders increased by 196% [4][19][22]. - The "trade - in" policy continued to release consumer demand. By February 19th, the trade - in of consumer goods benefited 28.88 million people, driving sales of 198.02 billion yuan. Smart devices maintained high growth, and Hainan's duty - free sales increased rapidly [22]. Film Market The film market continued its dismal performance since 2025, hitting a new low in the Spring Festival season in the past 7 years. As of the afternoon of the sixth day of the first lunar month, the cumulative box office of this year's Spring Festival season was 4.91 billion yuan, and it was unlikely to exceed 6 billion yuan. The number of screenings reached a new high, but the number of movie - goers hit a new low, mainly due to the lack of high - quality works [25]. Real - Estate Market The real - estate market showed a weak rebound at the bottom, with first - tier cities having a stronger rebound than second - and third - tier cities. From the first to the fifth day of the first lunar month, the average daily sales volume of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 1.04 million square meters, a 24.9% increase compared to the same period last year. The transaction and listing prices of second - hand houses in January also showed signs of stabilization. If the trend in the past 1 - 2 months continues, the real - estate sales may have hit the bottom [5][29]. Overseas Capital Markets - Most overseas bond yields declined. The 10 - year US Treasury yield adjusted upwards due to the hawkish FOMC meeting minutes and tariff policy fluctuations. European bond markets generally strengthened under the expectation of easing. The 10 - year Japanese government bond yield declined by 10.9bp, while the 10 - year Indian government bond yield increased by 4.8bp [6][32]. - The US dollar index strengthened, and the copper - gold ratio fluctuated weakly. Most overseas commodities rose, with oil and coal prices rising by more than 5%. Precious metals and some agricultural products also had varying degrees of increase [35][37]. - European and American stock markets rose collectively, while Asian stock markets were divided. The US stock market rebounded strongly, and European stock markets followed suit. The South Korean stock market hit a record high, while the Hong Kong and Japanese stock markets were weak. The FTSE A50 index rose 0.3% during the holiday [40].

人流、物流的加速流动，为新春消费图景增添了更多动感。交通运输部预测，春节9天假期日均全社会 跨区域人员流动量或创春节假期新高，日均人员流动量将达到2.99亿人次。商务大数据显示，仅春节假 期首日，冰雪游消费增长1.2倍，避寒游消费增长68%；酒店住宿交易额增长32.7%，租车订单量增长 54%，人们的"出行半径"显著延长，丈量更广阔的山海，也将新春消费热潮带到四面八方。与此同时， 快递"春节不打烊"，不仅满足了多元化的节日消费需求，更进一步畅通经济循环。这种大规模、高效率 的人员与货物流动，依托的是日益完善的综合立体交通网和物流体系，展现的是一个活力奔涌、韧性十 足的"流动中国"。 今年春节假期从2月15日持续至23日，共计9天，被称为"最长春节假期"，人们可以更从容地安排团聚、 出行与休闲。无论是年夜饭市场火爆，还是"反向过年"渐成风尚，抑或是春晚分会场所在城市热度攀 升，当悠长假期与消费热情"双向奔赴"，"年经济"的引擎正加速运转，释放澎湃发展动能。除夕当天的 一组数据，为这份火热提供了生动注脚：银联、网联共处理支付交易49.31亿笔，较去年除夕增长 21.64%。"指尖"上的每一笔支付，串联起千家万户的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the vibrant consumer activity during the Spring Festival, reflecting strong economic growth and consumer confidence in China [1][2][3] - The Spring Festival holiday lasted from February 15 to February 23, totaling 9 days, allowing for more leisurely arrangements for family gatherings and travel [1] - Payment transactions processed by UnionPay and NetLink reached 4.931 billion on New Year's Eve, marking a 21.64% increase compared to the previous year, indicating a robust consumer market [1] Group 2 - There is a noticeable shift in consumer preferences towards green, smart, and health-oriented products during the Spring Festival, indicating a trend of consumption upgrading [2] - The average daily cross-regional movement of people during the holiday is expected to reach 299 million, potentially setting a new record for the Spring Festival [2] - Hotel accommodation revenue increased by 32.7%, and car rental orders surged by 54%, demonstrating an extended travel radius and a broader reach of the Spring Festival consumption boom [2] Group 3 - Government policies have played a crucial role in supporting the festive market, including measures to ensure the supply and price stability of essential goods [3] - The "New Spring Shopping" campaign, initiated by the Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments, included the distribution of consumer vouchers and subsidies, effectively stimulating market enthusiasm [3] - By February 19, the consumption upgrade program benefited 28.88 million people, generating sales of 198.02 billion, showcasing the successful conversion of consumer intent into actual purchasing power [3]

春节出行和消费市场呈温和回升、层次鲜明特征，政策聚焦扩内需优结构，实体、物价、流动性各维度 数据表现分化。春运前19天跨区域人员流动日均2.48亿人次、同比增5.1%，水运成增长亮点，出行市场 进入常态化周期；商品消费依托政策与消费升级实现量价回升，智能产品成亮点，服务消费中旅游表现 亮眼，电影消费受供给质量影响表现平淡。近两周政策围绕扩内需稳增长、优结构强创新双线发力，兼 顾短期与中长期发展。实体端内需待振外需亮眼，生产分化，基建资金充裕但项目短缺问题的仍存，节 前停工早于往年，出口仍有韧性或对经济起到托底作用，生产分化持续；物价上CPI小幅上涨、PPI整体 平稳；流动性保持合理充裕，人民币持续升值。 本文来自格隆汇专栏：梁中华宏观研究 作者：李林芷、邵睿思、梁中华 投资要点 风险提示：贸易局势不确定性，国内需求修复不及预期。 1、春节：出行和消费温和改善 2026年春节出行和消费市场呈现出温和回升、层次鲜明的运行特征，商品消费托底、服务消费需求主 导，新质生产力向消费端的落地转化，更成为此次春节消费的亮眼新增长点。 人员流动：长假支撑下需求进一步释放，出行结构多元升级。国内春运已从过去的"单向返乡大迁徙" ...

文 | 招商宏观张静静团队 核心观点 国内方面，或因天气原因，春节假期出行需求对相关消费拉动明显；春节假期原油等全球定价商品价格中枢保持强势，PPI同比于 Q2转正概率进一步增加。 海外方面，1）美最高院裁定特朗普关税非法，裁决结果出来后特朗普立即采取122关税征收150天的15%临时进口关税，2月24日 生效。2）美国Q4实际GDP环比折年率1.4%，预期2.8%，前值4.4%。投资是主要亮点，由0.8%升至2.6%。3）美联储1月纪要显示 内部分歧加大，总体来看，官员对就业市场的担忧有所减轻，而对通胀的担忧则有所增加。 资产方面，预计节后国内资本市场除关注春晚题材外，仍将加大对通胀（PPI）方向的配置。值得注意的是，即便国际油价受美伊 局势影响，但其价格中枢也将继续保持上移态势，上调WTI油价全年均值至65-70美元/桶区间。 1、春节经济数据看点：1）出行：春节居民出行意愿高涨，全国迁徙指数显著高于2019及2025年，自驾公路出行占主导，腊月二 十五至正月初四，全社会跨区域流量同比增长7.55%；国内出游占主导，出入境游进一步活跃，赴日旅行人数骤减；重点旅游地区 的游客数量、收入增长可观；2）票房：出 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in retail and catering data during the Spring Festival holiday, with a year-on-year growth of 8.6% in the first four days, which is expected to boost the social retail data for the first two months of the year [1][2][52] - The increase in cross-regional travel during the holiday period saw an 8.7% rise compared to the previous year, with water transport showing remarkable growth of 28.5%, influenced by tourism demand and the reopening of Hainan [3][12][54] - Price stability was observed in key sectors, with high-end liquor and hotel prices in popular small cities increasing, while prices in first-tier cities and movie ticket prices saw declines [4][16][55] Group 2 - Structural highlights in consumption include a strong performance in mid-to-high-end products like gold and duty-free items, with gold consumption remaining robust and duty-free sales in Hainan increasing by 20.9% [5][14][56] - Domestic and cross-border travel maintained momentum, with hotel accommodation transaction values rising by 32.7% and a predicted double-digit growth in daily inbound and outbound travelers at national ports [5][14][57] - The trend towards smart and health-oriented consumption was evident, with significant sales growth in smart wearable devices and organic foods during the holiday period [5][14][57] Group 3 - Weekly economic observations indicate a rebound in durable goods consumption, with passenger car retail sales increasing by 54% year-on-year in early February, contrasting with a decline of 13.9% in January [6][24] - Real estate sales showed improvement, with a 5% year-on-year increase in residential sales area in 27 cities as of mid-February, compared to a decline of 16% in January [6][25] - Export activities showed signs of recovery, with a 32.3% increase in the number of outbound port calls compared to the previous year, indicating a positive trend in trade [6][30]

市集带火新年货，乡村游有了新玩法，看剧观影成新年俗……这个春节，大众日报·大众新闻推出"齐鲁年味·消费新潮"系列报道，通过一个个 鲜活具体的故事，生动展现山东春节消费市场的新特点、新趋势。 赶年集，赶出新风尚 过去赶集，拼的是脚力；今年赶集，可能要拼网速。在邹平，当地供销社依托17处镇街的供销超市等销售渠道启动了"供销年货大集"，把直播 间搬进了大集现场。 在潍坊青州古城，一家按照二十世纪七八十年代供销社门市部场景还原的"供销社古城店"成了"网红打卡地"。有人排队进店买了一包怀旧包装 的桃酥，拍照发朋友圈："这个我在奶奶家见过。" 另一个有趣的现象是：大集，正在成为年轻人的"社交货币"。打开朋友圈、抖音、小红书等，春节前的关键词除了"年终总结""返乡"，还多 了"大集打卡"。有人晒糖葫芦，有人晒春联摊，还有人晒和非遗代表性传承人的合影。对很多年轻人来说，赶年集考虑的不是"家里缺什 么""过年要备什么"，而是"什么好吃""什么有意思""什么值得发一条朋友圈"。 非遗好物热销，年味打包带回家 2月17日，正月初一，大明湖畔热闹起来。数十个非遗手作、美食档口一字排开，舞龙队伍穿街而过，年味在人潮与锣鼓声中迅速升温。 ...