Market Overview - Spot silver experienced a significant decline, dropping as much as 16.6% on Thursday after briefly recovering above $90 an ounce in early Asian trading. Spot gold also fell, decreasing by as much as 3.5% in volatile trading conditions [1][7]. - The sentiment across various asset classes, including regional equities and metals, has turned negative, indicating fragile market conditions and creating a feedback loop amid low liquidity [1][7]. Recent Trends in Precious Metals - Precious metals had previously surged due to speculative momentum, geopolitical tensions, and concerns regarding the independence of the US central bank. However, this rally abruptly ended last week, with silver experiencing its largest daily drop ever and gold its most significant decline since 2013 [2][7]. - Analysts from Standard Chartered Plc noted that price volatility is expected to continue until there is more clarity on monetary policy. They indicated that some of the recent volatility is due to investors redeeming holdings in exchange-traded products, but structural drivers for precious metals remain strong, suggesting a potential recovery [6][7]. Federal Reserve Policy Implications - The market is currently assessing the implications of Kevin Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve chair. President Trump indicated that he would not have nominated Warsh if he had shown a desire to increase interest rates, suggesting that the Fed is likely to lower rates again, which would benefit precious metals that do not yield interest [3][7].

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Context - The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) February rate hike to 3.85% indicates a shift towards a hawkish monetary policy, with inflation risks now prioritized over growth concerns [1][3][5] - Trimmed mean inflation accelerated to 3.4%, significantly above previous forecasts, suggesting that inflation is now demand-driven rather than transitory [7][9] - The RBA's decision reflects the conclusion that the economy is operating beyond its productive capacity, necessitating a reevaluation of sustainable returns in a higher interest rate environment [5][12] Group 2: Market Reactions and Sector Performance - The ASX 200 initially reacted negatively to the rate hike, but a preference for hard assets and globally exposed earnings has emerged, while domestically focused cyclicals are losing favor [15][22] - Financials, while the largest sector in the index, are vulnerable to shifts in rate expectations, with Commonwealth Bank's forward P/E significantly above its historical average [16][17] - The consumer discretionary sector is experiencing pressure from rising mortgage repayments, impacting retailers like Wesfarmers and JB Hi-Fi [18][19] Group 3: Opportunities in Resource Stocks - The resources sector is expected to drive earnings growth in 2026, with strong commodity prices and improving global industrial demand supporting mining companies [23][25] - Gold remains a strategic asset, with prices approaching US$5,000 per ounce due to central bank buying and geopolitical risks [26] - Companies like Northern Star, Evolution Mining, and Genesis Minerals are highlighted for their strong cash flows and balance sheet strength, positioning them well in the current market [29][30][38][42] Group 4: Specific Company Insights - Northern Star is seen as a resilient gold exposure with a strong balance sheet and potential for margin uplift as it becomes increasingly exposed to spot prices [32][34] - Evolution Mining has improved its financial position significantly, with a 57% increase in operating cash flow, allowing for reduced gearing and full exposure to rising gold prices [38][39] - Sandfire Resources is positioned to benefit from structural supply shortages in copper, with a transformed balance sheet and strong operational drivers [48][50] - Silver Mines offers a high-quality option on silver, with significant reserves and a clear development pathway for its Bowdens project [52][54] - BHP has upgraded its FY26 copper guidance to nearly 2 million tonnes, showcasing its operational edge and resilience across diversified commodities [58][59]

Core Insights - Grab Finance is enhancing credit access in Southeast Asia by utilizing the FICO Platform, implementing 22 decision workflows across six countries, and increasing credit offer eligibility rates by nearly 50% for its users [1][2] Company Overview - Grab Finance is the financial services division of Grab, a leading superapp in Southeast Asia, operating in sectors such as deliveries, mobility, and digital financial services, serving over 800 cities in eight countries [2] - The company aims to drive economic empowerment and financial inclusion for millions while maintaining a positive social impact and minimizing environmental footprint [2] Financial Inclusion Efforts - Grab Finance has been recognized with a 2026 FICO® Decision Award for its efforts in financial inclusion, having served over 46 million consumers and millions of merchants and drivers [1] - The company addresses the challenges of credit access in Southeast Asia, where over 700 million people face underbanked conditions, by leveraging behavioral data to create alternative risk models [1] Technological Implementation - The implementation of the FICO Platform allowed Grab Finance to automate credit eligibility assessments and deliver contextual, real-time credit offers, significantly improving access for underserved users [1] - The project was completed in under eight months, showcasing rapid deployment and the ability to navigate a fragmented regulatory landscape across different countries [1] Market Impact - Grab Finance's approach transforms everyday digital behavior into a "credit passport" for users previously invisible to traditional banking, thus contributing to economic transformation at scale [1] - The integration of compliance requirements into the credit decisioning framework demonstrates a strategic response to regional regulatory diversity [1]

Gold is currently trading at $4,906/oz as macro desks keep paying for convexity in the oldest hedge, while Bitcoin is trading at $72,639 after a bounce to $78,376. Same tape. Different bid. Gold Flows Tell the Story The “receipt” for gold’s new regime sits in flow math, not slogans. World Gold Council data for full-year 2025 shows global gold ETF holdings of +801 tonnes (second-strongest year on record) and Q4 ETF inflows of 175 tonnes, alongside Q4 bar-and-coin demand of 420 tonnes, the strongest Q4 in 1 ...

Publicly traded Swiss bank UBS is working on plans to offer digital assets trading and tokenized service offerings for users, its CEO said. https://t.co/Nf7V3Nqalx ...

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh, nominated by President Trump to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve, has a history of raising concerns about inflation while being a data-driven policymaker during his tenure from 2006 to 2011 [2][3]. Group 1: Warsh's Tenure and Philosophy - Warsh served on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and consistently voted with the committee's consensus, including supporting three rate hikes upon joining in 2006, maintaining rates, and later cutting rates during the financial crisis [3]. - His approach reflects a balance between being an inflation hawk and a practitioner who relies on data to guide policy decisions, as noted by former Atlanta Fed president Dennis Lockhart [2]. Group 2: Concerns About Inflation - During the Fed's April 2008 meeting, Warsh expressed concerns about inflation and the job market, warning that continued rate cuts could lead to a perception of excessive tolerance for inflation, potentially raising inflation expectations [4]. - In September 2009, after the worst of the financial crisis, Warsh cautioned that delaying rate increases until the economy normalized could result in waiting too long, leading to inflation issues [8].

Europe has undoubtedly emerged as an early leader in this area. With MiCA now in force and the DLT Pilot Regime enabling structured digital-securities experimentation, the region has moved beyond fragmented sandboxes. The European market is the first to implement a unified, continent-wide regulatory framework for tokenised assets. Instead of treating compliance as an obstacle, the region has elevated regulatory clarity into a competitive advantage . It provides the legal, operational and technical certainty ...

Banking committee chair Tim Scott seeks to defuse standoff over the criminal probe of current Fed chair that is complicating Kevin Warsh's nomination. ...

Trade Relations - India aims to move past tensions with the US and resume trade negotiations, as indicated by Ajit Doval's meeting with Secretary of State Marco Rubio [1][21] - A trade agreement was announced by Trump, reducing tariffs on Indian goods to 18% and scrapping a 25% duty on Russian oil purchases [6][22] - India is expected to purchase $500 billion of US goods and reduce tariffs on US imports to zero, although these details have not been officially confirmed by the Indian government [6][22] Strategic Partnerships - New Delhi views the US as a long-term strategic partner, essential for capital, technology, and military cooperation to counter China [10][20] - The arrival of US Ambassador Sergio Gor in December marked a renewed effort to stabilize US-India relations, emphasizing the importance of ties between the two nations [12][14] - India is diversifying its trade relationships, having recently secured free trade agreements with the European Union and the UK, indicating a strategic shift amidst US negotiations [16][22] Economic Impact - The US is a crucial market for India, accounting for about 20% of its exports, particularly in mobile phones and electronic goods, which are vital for India's manufacturing goals [18][22] - Significant investment pledges from US companies, including $52 billion from Amazon and Microsoft, and $15 billion from Google for data centers, highlight the growing economic ties [18][22] - Goldman Sachs has established its largest office outside of New York in Bengaluru, underscoring India's increasing importance to the US financial sector [19][22]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q4 2025 was $5.3 billion, representing a 3.8% year-over-year growth in constant currency, all organic [25][30] - Full-year revenue reached $21.1 billion, growing 6.4% in constant currency, surpassing the $20 billion mark [6][25] - Adjusted Operating Margin improved to 16%, up 30 basis points year-over-year, with a full-year adjusted operating margin of 15.8%, exceeding guidance by 50 basis points [6][30] - Adjusted diluted EPS for Q4 was $1.35, up 12% year-over-year, leading to a full-year EPS of $5.28, an 11% increase from the prior year [31][34] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Financial Services segment led growth with a 9% year-over-year increase in constant currency for Q4 and 7% for the full year, marking the highest annual level since 2016 [5][25] - Health Sciences segment grew at over 6%, significantly above the company average, driven by strong performance in administrative and clinical processes [78] - Digital Engineering practices saw an 8% year-over-year growth in Q4, supported by proprietary platforms [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America was the standout region with over 4% year-over-year growth in constant currency, primarily driven by financial services and healthcare [28] - Europe experienced a 2% growth in constant currency, with healthy performance in financial services and life sciences [28] - The Rest of World segment grew in line with the total company, driven by the Middle East [28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to bridge the AI velocity gap, focusing on transforming AI technology into measurable returns for clients [11][12] - Cognizant's strategy includes a three-vector approach to capture demand, emphasizing AI-led productivity and the development of new agentic software [12][13] - The company plans to maintain its position in the industry's winner's circle by 2027, having achieved this goal two years early [8][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in sustaining growth in 2026, supported by a strong pipeline of large deals and a focus on AI integration [24][58] - The operating environment remains complex, but management views it as an opportunity to capture wallet share in large deals and help clients reinvest savings into innovation [25][26] - The company anticipates a modest increase in defined benefit costs due to recent labor law changes in India, but this is not expected to materially impact the P&L [30] Other Important Information - The company returned $2 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in 2025 [10][32] - Cognizant completed the acquisition of 3Cloud, adding over 1,200 Azure specialists to enhance its capabilities in AI and application innovation [10][32] - The company has a healthy M&A pipeline and intends to maintain an active acquisition strategy aligned with its AI builder strategy [32][34] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on AI's impact on revenue and package implementation - Management sees AI as a net positive, increasing total addressable spend and creating opportunities for innovation and productivity [40][41] Question: Gross margin dynamics for 2026 - The decline in Q4 gross margin was primarily due to higher variable compensation, but management remains confident in maintaining margins through productivity measures [47][50] Question: Confidence in large deal growth for 2026 - Management expressed strong confidence in the pipeline for larger deals, expecting timely ramps and acceleration in growth throughout the year [55][58] Question: Risks and opportunities of fixed-price contracts - Management indicated that while delivery risk resides with the service provider, they have a robust process to monitor performance and maintain margins [66][67] Question: Durability of BPO growth - Management believes the BPO segment will continue to grow due to the need for ongoing transformation and maintenance of processes enabled by AI [71][74] Question: Health Sciences segment growth amidst regulatory pressures - Management is confident in the Health Sciences segment's growth, leveraging their platform to transform administrative processes and improve patient care [78][80]