8 June 2025 | 5:43PM HKT China FX/Rates Monitor: CNY Appreciation Bias Post Trade De-escalation (Chen/Suwanapruti) Our monitor tracks the latest developments and identifies key indicators for China FX and rates, including valuations/policy stance, technicals, flows, and fundamentals. Below we summarize our key takeaways on the China FX and rates markets. Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Hui Shan +852-2978-6634 | hui.shan@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Danny ...

May 18, 2025 06:00 AM GMT Sunday Start | What's Next in Global Macro M Global Idea The Détente – What It Does and Doesn't Mean Following Monday's announcement of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs between the US and China, the response in risk markets has been resoundingly positive through the first four trading days. The S&P 500 is up 4.5% from last Friday's close, and year-to-date returns are back in the black after Liberation Day drove steep declines in April. Credit markets have also rallied notably, ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha 4 June 2025 | 6:00PM HKT Hong Kong: Decoding the recent moves in HKD FX/Rates market Bottom line: USD/HKD spot hit the lower bound (strong side) of the band (7.75) in early May amid broad USD weakening (and the very sharp appreciation of the Taiwan Dollar specifically). This prompted Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervention to sell HKD and buy USD, more than tripling interbank liquidity in Hong Kong. The surge in interbank liquidity led to a sharp drop in front-end HK ...

J P M O R G A N Global Emerging Markets Research 05 June 2025 Emerging Markets Outlook and Strategy for 2H25 US policy uncertainty still drives EM: move OW EM FX, stay UW EM sovereigns, MW local rates and corporates Key topics Macro developments Top trading themes See page 54 for analyst certification and important disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that co ...

Specialist Sales APAC Specialist Sales 05 June 2025 China Financials: First national distressed developer reorganization, Wendy Liu argues China may be on the verge of 1998-1999 Japan-style beta rally (+80%), Focus on "Financial survivors" (China Equity Strategy: Link) • The Jinke case (holistic reorganization involving strategic investors not just bond restructuring) suggests a pickup in sector rationalization as a new way to tackle China's property oversupply… While Jinke Real Estate's court-approved debt ...

Recent EU and to a lesser extent US economic data have surprised to the upside - our proprietary economic risk measure now less negative vs. 3m ago - challenging our initial recessionary scenario (Scenario 1 - here). While some front-loading of exports might be temporarily boosting Q2'25 EU growth, we expect momentum to fade later this year, aligning with our base case of weaker growth in Q3-Q4'25. With the US administration considering a 50% tariff on EU goods, our downside scenario implies an effective ta ...

Core Viewpoint - Digital banks SoFi Technologies and Robinhood Markets are leveraging innovative platforms to disrupt traditional financial services, with significant stock price increases over the past year [1][2] Group 1: SoFi Technologies - SoFi has evolved from a student and personal loans specialist to a comprehensive financial services platform, currently serving 10.9 million members, nearly double from two years ago [4] - In Q1 2025, SoFi's adjusted net revenue surged 33% year-over-year, and adjusted EPS increased 200% to $0.06, reflecting diversification into fee-based services [5] - Management projects full-year adjusted EPS of $0.27 to $0.28, nearly double the $0.15 result in 2024, indicating a strong growth outlook [6] - Investors confident in SoFi's growth strategy and market share capture from legacy banks have compelling reasons to buy and hold the stock [7] Group 2: Robinhood Markets - Robinhood's Q1 net revenue increased 50%, with EPS more than doubling to $0.37 from $0.17 in the prior year, driven by active trading in its 25.8 million funded accounts [9] - The cryptocurrency market boom significantly contributes to Robinhood's growth, with crypto representing 43% of total transaction volume and 27% of total revenue [10] - Robinhood is diversifying its offerings with professional trading tools, banking solutions, and wealth management options, increasing customer wallet share [10] - The company plans to expand globally, launching services in the Asia Pacific region and enhancing its digital asset presence through the acquisition of crypto exchange Bitstamp [11] Group 3: Comparative Analysis - Both companies are trading at forward P/E ratios near 50, indicating equal market optimism about their potential [12] - Investors believing in Robinhood's potential for dominance in the online brokerage space should consider adding the stock to a diversified portfolio [13] - SoFi is viewed as a compelling buy-the-dip opportunity, with shares down about 27% from their 52-week high, benefiting from a resilient macroeconomic backdrop [16] - Robinhood faces challenges in meeting high market expectations following its recent stock price surge, which may lead to volatility [17]

Group 1 - Sensor Unlimited is part of the investing group Envision Early Retirement, which focuses on generating high income and growth with isolated risks through dynamic asset allocation [2] - The group offers two model portfolios: one for short-term survival/withdrawal and another for aggressive long-term growth, along with direct access for discussions, monthly updates, and tax discussions [2] - Sensor Unlimited has a PhD in financial economics and has spent the last decade covering the mortgage market, commercial market, and banking industry, with a focus on asset allocation and ETFs [3] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of proven solutions in investment strategies to mitigate risks while aiming for high returns [2] - It highlights the role of quantitative modeling in understanding market dynamics and making informed investment decisions [3]

Key Takeaways BLK will lay off about 300 employees, more than 1% of its workforce, in a second round of 2025 cuts. The job reductions follow major acquisitions that boosted BLK's headcount by above 14% since 2023. Employee expenses rose 7% in 1Q25, prompting BLK to realign staffing with strategic priorities.BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) plans to cut 300 jobs, affecting more than 1% of its workforce. The news was first reported by Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter.At the end of March 2025, the asse ...

3、利息吞噬黑洞：30年期美债收益率突破5%后，偿债成本已超军费开支。 作为全球最大债务国，美国正陷入更深层次的货币困境：既要维持美元国际储备地位，又需持续发行天 量国债填补赤字。萨默斯警告，当美债规模突破40万亿美元大关，国际市场对美元的信心阈值可能被击 穿，"届时各国央行抛售美债的速度，或将比2022年英国养老金危机时的英镑崩溃更迅猛"。 特朗普经济团队坚称"增长至上"，认为3.5%的GDP增速配合10%关税收入可化解债务危机。但高盛模型 显示，全面关税将直接推升核心PCE通胀1.2个百分点，而放松金融监管可能重演2008年CDS市场崩盘 场景。萨默斯犀利指出："这是将里根供给侧改革与伯南克量化宽松政策粗暴嫁接的危险实验"。 在这场牵动全球神经的财政博弈中，萨默斯意外表态支持特朗普取消债务上限的提议，认为"周期性政 治闹剧已严重损害国家信用"。但其强调，财政纪律重建必须配套税收体系改革，包括堵塞跨国企业避 税漏洞、开征数字服务税等措施，否则任何债务重组方案都是"在流沙上建城堡"。 随着参议院即将对法案进行最终表决，全球央行已悄然启动应急预案。这场关乎美元霸权存亡的战役， 注定将载入国际金融史册。 来源：极 ...