国庆节后，国内尿素价格继续下跌。10月10日，山东中小颗粒出厂价在1500～1570元；山西中小颗粒出 厂价更是低至1490～1520元，同比跌幅均超过20%，环比9月份跌幅超过6%。业内专家指出，10月份华 北和黄淮地区持续降雨，秋季玉米收割及小麦种植进度缓慢，进一步加剧市场需求的低迷状态。 产能增加 需求不振 中国氮肥工业协会统计数据显示，今年上半年新增尿素产能251万吨，总产能达到7640万吨；下半年预 计新增产能341万吨，总产能将达到7900万吨。而根据隆众资讯的统计，今年前8个月尿素产量达 4743.56万吨，同比增长9.7%，日产19万吨以上成为常态，预计全年供过于求的产量达500万～600万 吨，2026年预计供过于求的产量为1000万吨。 从农业需求看，2025年夏粮播种面积同比减少52万亩；早稻播种面积减少17.9万亩；受种植面积增长放 缓影响，今年农业需求增量有限。从工业需求看，主要细分领域三聚氰胺受房地产行业低迷拖累，国内 需求增量有限，仅依赖出口带动部分产量，但整体增量空间不足。上半年三聚氰胺价格同比下跌 7.13%，行业利润空间收窄，部分企业被迫调整生产。电厂脱硫脱硝需求在年末收缩 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2) Core View of the Report - The rebound of the urea futures market is mainly due to short - term profit - taking by short sellers. The spot market remains dull, and the previously expected upward drivers (chemical anti - involution and exports) have not materialized. If there is no further change in exports and domestic agricultural demand weakens, domestic demand may struggle to absorb high supply pressure, and urea prices may continue to fluctuate at low levels. However, the current valuation of urea is low, and further short - selling is not recommended. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see. [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01: On October 14, it was 1597.00 yuan/ton, down 13.00 yuan (-0.81%) from October 13 [1] - UR05: On October 14, it was 1671.00 yuan/ton, down 7.00 yuan (-0.42%) from October 13 [1] - UR09: On October 14, it was 1707.00 yuan/ton, down 3.00 yuan (-0.18%) from October 13 [1] Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule Urea) - Shandong: On October 14, it was 1550.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan (1.31%) from October 13 [1] - Shanxi: On October 14, it was 1460.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan (0.69%) from October 13 [1] - Henan: On October 14, it was 1540.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan (1.32%) from October 13 [1] - Hebei: On October 14, it was 1590.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan (1.27%) from October 13 [1] - Northeast: On October 14, it was 1620.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan (-0.61%) from October 13 [1] - Jiangsu: On October 14, it was 1560.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan (1.96%) from October 13 [1] Spreads - Shandong Spot - UR01: On October 14, it was - 121.00 yuan/ton, up 27.00 yuan from October 13 [1] - 01 - 05 Spread: On October 14, it was - 74.00 yuan/ton, down 6.00 yuan from October 13 [1] Upstream Costs - Anthracite Coal Price (Henan): On October 14, it was 1000.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 13 [1] - Anthracite Coal Price (Shanxi): On October 14, it was 880.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 13 [1] Downstream Prices - Compound Fertilizer (45%S) Price (Shandong): On October 14, it was 2900.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 13 [1] - Compound Fertilizer (45%S) Price (Henan): On October 14, it was 2500.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 13 [1] - Melamine Price (Shandong): On October 14, it was 5084.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from October 13 [1] - Melamine Price (Jiangsu): On October 14, it was 5100.00 yuan/ton, down 100.00 yuan (-1.92%) from October 13 [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1606 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1616 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1592 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1597 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1602 yuan/ton. The position volume of 2601 was 321992 lots. [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company Ba Tian Co., Ltd. has announced a significant increase in its expected net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, projecting a growth of 230.79% to 260.15% compared to the same period last year [1] Financial Performance - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company is estimated to be between 676 million yuan and 736 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Batian Co., Ltd. (002170) expects a significant increase in net profit for the first three quarters, projecting between 676 million to 736 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 230.79% to 260.15% [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates net profit for the first three quarters to be between 676 million to 736 million yuan [1] - The projected year-on-year growth rate is between 230.79% and 260.15% [1] Stock Market Reaction - On the announcement day, Batian's stock closed at 11.13 yuan, with an increase of 0.45% [1] - The stock's turnover rate was 6.34%, with a trading volume of 559 million yuan [1] - Over the past five days, the stock has risen by 4.21% [1] - Historical data indicates that 77.78% of stocks with a profit forecast increase of over 50% saw a price increase on the announcement day, with 8 stocks hitting the daily limit [1] - Additionally, 80.56% of these stocks experienced price increases over the following five days [1] Capital Flow - The stock experienced a net outflow of 53.67 million yuan in principal funds today, with a total net outflow of 216 million yuan over the past five days [2]

Core Insights - The company, Batian Co., Ltd. (002170.SZ), expects a significant increase in net profit for the first three quarters, projecting a range of 676 million to 736 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 230.79% to 260.15% [1] - The net profit after excluding non-recurring gains and losses is anticipated to be between 675 million and 735 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 237.02% to 266.98% [1] - The substantial growth in sales revenue is attributed to the increase in sales of phosphate rock and its processed products and fertilizers [1]

Core Viewpoint - Batian Co., Ltd. (002170.SZ) expects a significant increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, projecting a year-on-year growth of 230.79% to 260.15% [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from 676 million to 736 million yuan [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between 675 million and 735 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 237.02% to 266.98% [1] Sales Growth - There has been a substantial increase in sales revenue from phosphate rock and its processed products and fertilizers during the first three quarters of 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Heartland Fertilizer (01866.HK) announced that it will hold a board meeting on October 24, 2025, to consider and approve the publication of the unaudited third-quarter performance announcement for the three months ending September 30, 2025 [1] Group 1 - The board meeting is scheduled for October 24, 2025 [1] - The agenda includes the consideration and approval of the unaudited third-quarter results [1] - The performance announcement will be published on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange website [1]

Core Viewpoint - Batian Co., Ltd. expects a significant increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, projecting between 676 million to 736 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 230.79% to 260.15% [1] Financial Performance - The anticipated net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 is between 676 million to 736 million yuan [1] - This projection indicates a substantial year-on-year increase of 230.79% to 260.15% [1] Sales Growth - The sales revenue from phosphate rock and its processed products, as well as fertilizers, is expected to see a significant increase [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Batian Co., Ltd. (002170), anticipates a significant increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, projecting a range of 676 million to 736 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 230.79% to 260.15% [1] Financial Performance - The expected net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 is between 676 million yuan and 736 million yuan [1] - This projection indicates a substantial year-on-year increase of 230.79% to 260.15% [1] Revenue Drivers - The growth in profit is attributed to a significant increase in sales revenue from phosphate rock and its processed products, as well as fertilizers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The ammonium sulfate market is experiencing a rebound, with prices rising significantly, while urea prices are declining, indicating a structural shift in the nitrogen fertilizer industry towards quality and efficiency rather than mere expansion [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The mainstream transaction price of ammonium sulfate has increased to 840-900 RMB per ton, with high-end prices exceeding 1000 RMB, while urea prices have dropped to around 1600 RMB [1]. - China's ammonium sulfate production capacity is projected to reach 3,800 million tons by 2025 and exceed 5,500 million tons by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.5% [2]. - The market share of the top five ammonium sulfate producers is expected to grow from 38% in 2022 to about 45% by 2025, and potentially reach 52% by 2030 [2]. Group 2: Demand Structure - The demand for ammonium sulfate is characterized by stable agricultural demand (65%-70% of total) and accelerating industrial demand, which is expected to rise from 22% in 2023 to 30% by 2025, and potentially reach 45%-50% by 2030 [3]. - The lithium battery sector is a significant growth driver, with a 25% increase in ammonium sulfate used for lithium battery precursor materials in 2023 [3]. - The textile dyeing industry is also expected to see steady growth, with consumption projected to reach 600,000 tons by 2025 [3]. Group 3: Export Position - In the first half of 2025, ammonium sulfate exports reached 8.3341 million tons, making it the top fertilizer export by volume, with an export value of 1.284 billion USD, a 35.2% increase from the previous year [4]. - Brazil has replaced Vietnam as the largest export destination, accounting for 26.53% of imports in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 73.85% [4]. - The concentration of export markets is increasing, which is expected to enhance China's international pricing power [4]. Group 4: Opportunities and Challenges - The ammonium sulfate industry is poised for growth driven by favorable policies, demand from agriculture modernization, and the rapid development of the new energy sector [5][6]. - The shift towards high-end production and green circular economy practices is being encouraged by policies, with a projected industry growth rate of around 8% annually over the next five years [6]. - However, the industry faces risks related to environmental regulations and international market uncertainties, including potential trade policy changes that could impact competitiveness [6].