Core Viewpoint - The company reported mixed financial results for 2024, with revenue growth but a decline in net profit, while the first quarter of 2025 showed a recovery in net profit despite a decrease in revenue [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.196 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.79%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 10.97% to 564 million yuan [1] - For Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.085 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.63%, and a net profit of 98 million yuan, down 22.01% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company recorded revenue of 954 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.48%, and a net profit of 206 million yuan, up 22.70% year-on-year [1] Business Segments - The potassium chloride business generated revenue of 2.364 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.3%, with production rising by 35% to 1.2 million tons and sales increasing by 39% to 1.21 million tons [2] - The construction segment, which includes steel structures and related services, reported revenue of 1.783 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.4%, but the gross margin improved by 2.1 percentage points to 9.0% [2] Cost and Expenses - In 2024, the company's sales, management, and R&D expenses increased by 3.5%, 22.0%, and 11.0% respectively, while financial expenses decreased by 64.88 million yuan due to foreign exchange gains from a subsidiary [2] Future Projects and Market Position - The company is actively advancing the construction of a second 1 million tons/year potassium fertilizer project and maintains a leading market share in the steel structure business for power grid procurement [3] - The company holds potassium salt mining rights in Laos with over 400 million tons of pure potassium chloride resources and has a current production capacity of 1 million tons/year [3] - The company has secured contracts worth 383 million yuan from the State Grid and Southern Power Grid for various procurement projects in early 2025 [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025 but has adjusted the 2026 forecast downward due to slower-than-expected potassium chloride capacity construction, while a new forecast for 2027 has been added [4] - Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 817 million yuan, 852 million yuan (previously 968 million yuan), and 1.032 billion yuan respectively [4]

Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 385 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.23% [4] - Revenue from pesticides was 249 million yuan, with a growth of 2.05%, while fertilizer revenue reached 120 million yuan, growing by 14.28% [4] - The overall gross profit margin was 46.25%, an increase of 2.42 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 79 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16% [4] Growth Drivers - Expansion of the company's comprehensive crop solutions and increased promotion area contributed to revenue growth [4] - Enhanced marketing efforts for key products and new media promotion stimulated sales [4] - Recovery in prices of certain pesticides and fertilizers boosted consumer demand [4] - Rising grain prices encouraged farmers to invest more in agricultural inputs [4] Sales Structure and Product Performance - Significant growth in revenue from raw materials, compound fertilizers, growth regulators, and water-soluble fertilizers, with raw materials increasing by 47% and compound fertilizers by over 20% [5] - The company plans to promote comprehensive solutions over an area of 1.5 million mu in 2025, focusing on key crops such as wheat, corn, and cotton [5] Regional Performance - The Northeast region has shown rapid growth, with the company planning to continue resource allocation to enhance business growth in this area [7] Human Resources and Recruitment - The company aims to recruit 300 graduates from agricultural colleges in 2025, with over 200 interns from the 2024 autumn recruitment already in place [6] - There is a high demand for technical service personnel due to the company's marketing strategy and the need for specialized training for distributors and farmers [6]

Group 1: Market Overview - The global market is experiencing heightened risk aversion due to the US "reciprocal tariff" policy, leading to a significant decline in prices of commodities like crude oil and urea futures [1] - Urea spot market activity has improved as macroeconomic negative factors are gradually digested, with some companies starting to control order volumes and tentatively raise prices [1][5] - The urea market is currently in a state of fluctuation, influenced by the contradiction between demand recovery expectations and weak actual demand [1] Group 2: Agricultural Demand - Agricultural demand for urea remains strong, with direct agricultural use and compound fertilizer demand accounting for 49% and 17% of total demand, respectively [2][3] - The peak demand season for urea aligns with the critical growth period for most crops, particularly in southern regions where rice planting occurs [2] - As drought conditions ease, agricultural demand is expected to gradually recover, with increased fertilizer preparation in regions like Sichuan and Yunnan [2][3] Group 3: Industrial Demand - Industrial demand for urea, particularly for melamine and urea-formaldehyde resin, is closely tied to the real estate sector [3] - The recovery in real estate construction in 2025 is anticipated to stabilize the demand for urea-formaldehyde resin, thereby supporting urea demand [3] Group 4: Production and Capacity - Urea production in April reached 5.8375 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.91%, despite a month-on-month decline of 4.05% [4] - The national urea capacity utilization rate was 86.23% as of April 24, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.84% [4] - Urea inventory levels increased to 1.065 million tons by the end of April, marking a 22.72% month-on-month rise due to weakened downstream demand [4] Group 5: Price and Cost Dynamics - Urea prices have softened due to weak coal prices and limited downstream demand, significantly compressing profit margins for producers [6] - The average profit margin for urea produced via certain methods has turned negative, indicating severe challenges for production companies [6] Group 6: Export Outlook - Urea exports remain tightly controlled, with March exports at 0.23 million tons, a 63.62% month-on-month increase, but a 75.25% year-on-year decline [7] - The export situation is expected to remain stable in May, with potential changes in June depending on domestic demand and production capacity [7] Group 7: Future Market Trends - The second half of the year presents both challenges and opportunities, with potential price recovery expected as agricultural demand improves [9] - The market may face increased competition due to excess production capacity, particularly after the peak demand period [9] - Monitoring of export policy changes in June and July will be crucial for market dynamics and profitability [9]

基础化工 2025 年 05 月 05 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 基础化工 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《铬盐产业链价格持续上行，本周多 家维生素 ADE 厂家停报—行业周报》 -2025.4.27 《2025 年一季度国内经济平稳起步， 部分农药旺季备货持续下景气上行— 行业周报》-2025.4.20 《本周百菌清、代森锰锌、菊酯等农 药价格上涨，中国调整对原产于美国 的进口商品加征关税措施—行业周 报》-2025.4.13 库存持续释放，涤纶长丝市场走势上行 ——行业周报 推荐标的：【化工龙头白马】万华化学、华鲁恒升、恒力石化、荣盛石化、赛轮 轮胎、扬农化工、新和成、龙佰集团、盐湖股份等；【化纤行业】新凤鸣、桐昆 股份、华峰化学等；【氟化工】金石资源、巨化股份、三美股份、昊华科技等；【农 化&磷化工】兴发集团、利民股份、云图控股、亚钾国际、和邦生物等；【硅】合 盛硅业、硅宝科技；【纯碱&氯碱】远兴能源、三友化工等；【其他】黑猫股份、 振华股份、苏博特、江苏索普等。【新材料】OLE ...

"过去，这里的盐碱地上全是白花花的盐，像下了雪。"丹尼说，经过土壤改良，盐碱地长出绿油油的棉 花嫩苗。十多年间，工厂的生产基地从1个扩展到4个，年销量超过4万吨，改良的土地超过200万亩，公 司还获得了高新技术企业认证。 今年是新疆维吾尔自治区成立70周年。当前，新疆产业发展提质增效，改革开放持续深化，基础设施建 设加快推进，人民生活不断改善，社会大局持续和谐稳定。随着共建"一带一路"深入推进，新疆不再是 边远地带，而是对外开放的核心地带、枢纽地带。在共建"一带一路"推动下，新疆致力于打造向西开放 高地，深化与各方经贸合作，取得累累硕果。 新疆是开放的新疆、自信的新疆，这片热土活跃着许多外国人的身影，他们有的来参访旅游，有的来留 学深造，有的来洽谈合作，更有的扎根这片热土干事创业。本报今日起开设"国际人士看新疆"专栏，邀 请多位工作、生活在新疆或多次到访这片热土的国际人士，讲述他们眼中的新疆。敬请关注。 在新疆阿拉尔市塔门镇的一家化肥生产企业，一袋袋水溶性化肥从生产线上有序输出，工人熟练地将它 们搬运、码放，而后运往各地。 这家企业的创始人德康尔·丹尼·卡米尔穿梭在车间与办公室之间，电话铃声此起彼伏。他已经6 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China released the "Corporate Sustainability Disclosure Standards No. 1 - Climate (Trial) (Draft for Comments)" on April 30, 2023, which consists of six chapters and 47 articles covering governance, strategy, risk and opportunity management, indicators and targets, and appendices [1][2] - The governance chapter outlines disclosure objectives related to governance structures, management information, and third-party verification requirements [1] - The indicators and targets chapter specifies general and industry-specific climate-related indicators, climate-related goals, and the basis for greenhouse gas emissions accounting [1] Group 2 - The implementation of the climate standards will initially be voluntary for companies, considering their actual disclosure capabilities, before formal requirements are established [2] - Guidelines for nine specific industries, including electricity, steel, coal, oil, fertilizer, aluminum, hydrogen, cement, and automotive, are being developed to provide guidance for the application of the basic and climate standards [2] - The overall goal is to establish a unified sustainability disclosure standard system in China by 2030, with basic and climate standards expected to be released by 2027 [1][2]

# CGS 公司深度报告 · 化工行业 复合肥主业经营稳健、优质磷矿产能释放助力业绩高增 芭田股份首次覆盖报告 2025 年 4 月 27 日 核心观点 主要财务指标预测 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 3313.11 | 4941.22 | 5395.38 | 5926.05 | | 增长率% | 2.15 | 49.14 | 9.19 | 9.84 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 409.14 | 1156.97 | 1408.35 | 1645.34 | | 增长率% | 57.67 | 182.78 | 21.73 | 16.83 | | 摊薄 EPS(元) | 0.42 | 1.20 | 1.46 | 1.71 | | PE | 23.50 | 8.31 | 6.83 | 5.84 | 资料来源：iFind，中国银河证券研究院 | 市场数据 | 2025-04-25 | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 002170.SZ | | A 股收盘价(元) | ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Overall sales volumes improved by 4% quarter over quarter, driven by solid improvement in sales volumes for ammonium nitrate and UAN [6][16] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $29 million, down from $33 million in Q1 2024, primarily due to higher natural gas costs [16][18] - Cash balance remains strong, and leverage ratio is in line with target levels for a mid-cycle pricing environment [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Demand for industrial products remains robust, with strong pricing and demand for nitric acid and ammonium nitrate solutions [11][12] - UAN prices increased significantly, with current NOLA UAN price at $350 per ton, 73% higher than the low price of fall 2024 [13] - Urea prices strengthened considerably, now above $500 per ton, driven by seasonal demand and lack of imports [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The USDA reported a significant increase in planted corn acres, expected to reach 95.3 million acres in 2025 compared to 90.6 million in 2024, driving strong fertilizer demand [15] - US corn prices are solidly above $4 per bushel, supporting favorable farmer economics [16] - Domestic pricing for urea has seen a significant uplift due to tariffs and other factors, expected to persist through the current spring planting season [8][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on improving the reliability and efficiency of its facilities, with ongoing investments in plant reliability and logistics capabilities [19][25] - The El Dorado ammonia project achieved precertification status under the Fertilizer Institute's Verified Ammonia Carbon Intensity Program, which is expected to aid in securing sales agreements for low carbon ammonia [22][23] - The company has decided to pause the Houston Ship Channel project due to uncertainties in capital costs and demand for low carbon ammonia [24][26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that US tariffs have created uncertainty for planned spending and potential capital projects, but do not anticipate a significant impact on business [5][8] - The company expects to capitalize on pricing strength for UAN and AN sales in the upcoming months, with meaningful increases in volumes compared to the prior year [20] - Management remains optimistic about the growth of the industrial business and the stability of earnings through cost-plus contracts [18][26] Other Important Information - The company plans to participate in upcoming industry conferences, including the UBS Energy Transition and Decarbonization Conference and the Deutsche Bank Industrials Materials and Building Products Conference [26] - The company is evaluating opportunities to increase production capacity in both nitric acid and ammonium nitrate [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on realized pricing setup for the second quarter - Management indicated good price increases for UAN products and is well positioned to take advantage of that [30] Question: Updated capital allocation priorities after pausing the Houston Ship Channel project - Management stated there are no new projects committed, focusing on improving existing facilities and considering stock buybacks and debt reduction [31][32] Question: Impact of deregulation on permitting - Management believes the impact will be minimal, with some positive developments in conversations with the EPA regarding low carbon ammonia projects [37][38] Question: Dynamics of pent-up demand for UAN - Management noted that higher corn acreage and insufficient imports are driving demand and impacting pricing [40] Question: Potential upgrade capacity projects - Management stated it is too early to discuss specific costs or margins related to potential expansion projects [44] Question: Disparity in ammonia pricing inland versus Tampa - Management indicated pricing is consistent with seasonal expectations and not significantly out of the ordinary [55] Question: Risks of delays in carbon projects at El Dorado - Management expressed confidence in meeting timelines for carbon projects, with equipment orders being placed soon [60][62]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 4% improvement in overall sales volumes quarter over quarter, driven by higher ammonia production and better performance from upgrading plants [5][6] - Adjusted EBITDA decreased from $33 million in Q1 2024 to $29 million in Q1 2025, attributed to improved sales volumes and higher pricing for ammonia and ammonium nitrate, offset by significantly higher natural gas costs [16][18] - The cash balance remains strong, and the leverage ratio is in line with target levels for a mid-cycle pricing environment [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sales volumes for ammonium nitrate and UAN improved significantly, with UAN prices increasing to $350 per ton, a 73% rise from the low price of fall 2024 [13][15] - The company continues to ramp up ammonium nitrate solution volumes, driven by strong demand in the copper mining sector [10][12] - The industrial contracts have grown from less than 20% in 2021 to approximately 30% by the end of Q1 2025, with expectations to reach 35% by year-end [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Domestic pricing for urea has seen a significant uplift due to U.S. tariffs, with expectations for this trend to persist through the spring planting season [7][8] - The USDA reported an increase in corn planting intentions to 95.3 million acres, up from 90.6 million acres last year, driving strong fertilizer demand [15][16] - Urea prices have strengthened considerably, now above $500 per ton, influenced by seasonal demand and a lack of imports [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on improving the reliability and efficiency of its facilities, with ongoing investments in plant reliability and logistics capabilities [18][24] - The El Dorado ammonia project achieved precertification status under the Fertilizer Institute's Verified Ammonia Carbon Intensity Program, which is expected to aid in securing sales agreements for low carbon ammonia [21][22] - The Houston Ship Channel project has been paused due to uncertainties in capital costs and demand for low carbon ammonia, but the company remains open to revisiting it in the future [23][45] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that U.S. tariffs have created uncertainty for planned spending and potential capital projects, but they do not anticipate a significant impact on business [4][6] - The company expects to benefit from lower natural gas costs moving into May, which will positively impact margins [19] - Management expressed confidence in achieving production and sales volume improvements while optimizing the industrial business for stability and predictability in earnings [24] Other Important Information - The company plans to participate in upcoming industry conferences, including the UBS Energy Transition and Decarbonization Conference and the Deutsche Bank Industrials Materials and Building Products Conference [25] - The turnaround for the El Dorado site has been pushed to the first half of 2026, increasing ammonia production outlook for 2025 by approximately 30,000 tons [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on UAN pricing and ammonia trends - Management indicated strong price increases for UAN products and is positioned to capitalize on this, while ammonia prices are expected to decline [28][29] Question: Capital allocation priorities post-Houston Ship Channel project pause - Management stated there are no new projects committed currently, focusing on improving existing facilities and considering stock buybacks and debt reduction [30][31] Question: Impact of deregulation on permitting - Management believes the impact will be minimal, with some positive developments in conversations with the EPA regarding low carbon ammonia projects [34][36] Question: Dynamics of pent-up demand for UAN - The increase in corn acreage and insufficient imports are driving demand and impacting pricing [38][39] Question: Potential upgrade capacity projects - Management is exploring expansion capabilities but has not committed to any projects yet, emphasizing the need for finalized engineering studies [42][43] Question: Risks associated with carbon projects at El Dorado - Management expressed confidence in meeting timelines for carbon projects, with no expected delays [56][57] Question: Disparity in ammonia pricing inland versus Tampa - Pricing remains consistent with seasonal expectations, with no significant disparities noted [53]

Group 1 - The company is expected to achieve significant profit recovery in 2024, with a projected revenue of 29.76 billion yuan (up 17.4% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.03 billion yuan (up 147.8% year-on-year) [1] - In Q1 2025, the company anticipates a revenue of 7.29 billion yuan (up 8.0% year-on-year, down 10.9% quarter-on-quarter) and a net profit of 410 million yuan (down 27.3% year-on-year, down 9.0% quarter-on-quarter) [1] Group 2 - The chemical new materials segment generated a revenue of 20.366 billion yuan in 2024 (accounting for 68% of total revenue, up 27% year-on-year) with a gross margin of 16% (up 1 percentage point year-on-year) [2] - The polycarbonate market is experiencing supply-demand imbalance and low prices, while the nylon 6 industry is growing rapidly but facing intense competition [2] - The company successfully launched its caprolactam and nylon 6 phase I project, and the organic silicon project was smoothly put into production [2] Group 3 - The basic chemicals segment reported a revenue of 5.795 billion yuan in 2024 (accounting for 19% of total revenue, down 7% year-on-year) with a gross margin of 17% (up 3 percentage points year-on-year) [3] - The fertilizer segment achieved a revenue of 3.065 billion yuan (accounting for 10% of total revenue, up 18% year-on-year) with a gross margin of 6% (down 1 percentage point year-on-year) [3] - The increase in fertilizer revenue was driven by new projects and improved market conditions, although profitability slightly declined [3]