中化新网讯 ICIS于3月18日发布的报告显示，受特朗普政府关税政策及美国经济疲软影响，美国聚 氯乙烯（PVC）市场正面临严峻挑战。报告预计2025年美国国内PVC市场增长率仅为1%至3%，其中住 房和建筑领域表现尤为疲弱，同时出口市场也将受到关税政策冲击。 在出口方面，美国PVC市场面临更大挑战。特朗普政府拟对墨西哥和加拿大征收25%关税的政策一 旦实施，将严重冲击美国PVC出口。这两个国家是美国PVC的重要出口市场，其加工商将进口的PVC加 工后返销美国，应用于医疗、建筑、汽车和工业等领域。关税政策将提高这些产品的进口成本，进而抑 制对美国PVC的需求。此外，印度、加拿大、墨西哥、巴西和欧盟等主要贸易伙伴现有及潜在的关税威 胁也给美国PVC出口蒙上阴影。 ICIS特别指出，作为美国PVC主要出口市场的拉丁美洲同样面临挑战。区域内需求分化、经济压力 及潜在关税政策正在重塑市场格局，影响供需关系。其中墨西哥市场尤为关键，新关税政策预计将提高 其PVC下游行业对美出口成本，进而削弱美国PVC的竞争力，可能导致墨西哥对美国PVC的需求下降。 报告指出，2024年美国国内PVC市场表现稳健，但随着第四季度新增产能投 ...

【图】2024年1-11月山西省初级形态的塑料产量统 计分析 摘要：【图】2024年1-11月山西省初级形态的塑料产量统计分析 2024年1-11月初级形态的塑料产量分析： 据国家统计局数据，在2024年的前11个月，山西省规模以上工业企业初级形态的塑料产量累计达到 了99.1万吨，与2023年同期的数据相比，增长了7.4%，增速较2023年同期高14.3个百分点，增速较同期 全国高2.7个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业初级形态的塑料产量11738.2707万吨的比重为0.8%。 图表：山西省初级形态的塑料产量分月（当月值）统计 注：初级形态的塑料2004年及以前名称为塑料树脂及共聚物，简称塑料。 图表：山西省初级形态的塑料产量分月（累计值）统计 2024年11月初级形态的塑料产量分析： 单独看2024年11月份，山西省规模以上工业企业初级形态的塑料产量达到了9.9万吨，与2023年同 期的数据相比，11月份的产量增长了7.0%，增速较2023年同期低0.3个百分点，增速放缓，增速较同期 全国高3.9个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业初级形态的塑料产量1110.09991万吨的比重为0.9%。 产业调研网为 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a cautious outlook on the polyolefin and styrene industry, suggesting a "hold" or "wait-and-see" approach for investors [15]. Core Insights - The overall market for polyolefins has shown limited volatility, with slight increases in polyethylene prices and minor declines in polypropylene prices. The LLDPE contract closed at 7884 CNY/ton, up 0.92%, while the PP contract closed at 7378 CNY/ton, down 0.24% [1][5]. - The report highlights a recovery in downstream demand, although raw material inventories at factories remain high, leading to cautious purchasing behavior [2][3]. - Supply pressures persist due to new polyethylene facilities coming online, while polypropylene production is slightly adjusted due to maintenance [2][3]. - The styrene market is experiencing a slight upward trend, with the EB04 contract closing at 8597 CNY/ton, up 0.40% [5][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Strategy Recommendations - LLDPE: Anticipated short-term fluctuations with support at 7600-7650 CNY/ton and resistance at 7900-7950 CNY/ton [15]. - PP: Expected to follow cost fluctuations with support at 7150-7200 CNY/ton and resistance at 7550-7600 CNY/ton [15]. - Styrene: Marginal improvement in supply-demand balance, with support at 8200-8250 CNY/ton and resistance at 9100-9150 CNY/ton [15]. 2. Futures Market Situation - LLDPE futures showed a closing price of 7884 CNY/ton with a weekly increase of 0.92% [16]. - PP futures closed at 7378 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.24% [16]. - Styrene futures closed at 8597 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.40% [17]. 3. Spot Market Situation - The domestic LLDPE market prices ranged from 8070 to 8700 CNY/ton, while PP prices varied between 7280 and 7530 CNY/ton [2]. - Styrene prices in the East China market were reported at 8635 CNY/ton, and in South China at 8800 CNY/ton [7]. 4. Supply and Demand Fundamentals - PE operating rates were reported at 82.76%, down 0.88%, while PP operating rates were at 77.23%, down 1.78% [2]. - Downstream demand is recovering, with various sectors showing increased operating rates, such as agricultural film at 40% and packaging at 48% [2]. - Inventory levels for two oils decreased to 86,000 tons, with PE social trade inventory at 19,126 tons and PP at 5,115 tons [3]. 5. Futures Market Positioning - The report indicates a mixed positioning in the futures market, with significant changes in open interest for various contracts [16][17].