1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The recent cost increase has driven the rebound of plastics, but the plastics themselves lack upward momentum. It is expected that plastics will mainly fluctuate weakly [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On October 24, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 86.5%, which is currently at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.83 percentage points to 45.75% month - on - month. The agricultural film has entered the peak season, but the peak season is not as good as expected. After the National Day, the stocking demand weakened periodically, and downstream enterprises were not willing to purchase. The cost of crude oil has rebounded significantly at a low level, and new production capacity has been put into operation. There is no actual anti - involution policy in the plastics industry, which will affect the subsequent market [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The plastic 2601 contract opened higher, then reduced positions and oscillated downward. The lowest price was 6957 yuan/ton, the highest price was 7017 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6969 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.07%. The open interest decreased by 2302 lots to 529187 lots [2] 3.2.2 Spot - The PE spot market showed mixed trends, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6910 - 7470 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9070 - 9930 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7260 - 8090 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On October 24, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 86.5%, at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week of October 24, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.83 percentage points to 45.75% month - on - month. The agricultural film has entered the peak season, and orders and raw material inventories have increased, but are still lower than in previous years. Packaging film orders have increased slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4] - Inventory: During the National Day holiday, the petrochemical inventory increased by 270,000 tons month - on - month. On Friday, it decreased by 40,000 tons to 720,000 tons, 5,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation during the National Day this year was similar to previous years, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $65/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $770/ton month - on - month, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $780/ton month - on - month [4]

Core Insights - The plastic production in Hunan Province for June 2025 reached 32,000 tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, with a growth rate 17.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] - For the first half of 2025, the total plastic production in Hunan Province was 174,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.3%, although the growth rate was 13.2 percentage points higher than the previous year [3] - Hunan's plastic production accounted for 0.3% of the national total in June 2025, while the first half of the year saw it represent 0.2% of the national output [1][3] Monthly Production Analysis - In June 2025, the plastic production in Hunan Province was 32,000 tons, with a significant increase in growth rate compared to the previous year [1] - The cumulative plastic production from January to June 2025 was 174,000 tons, indicating a decline compared to the same period last year [3] National Comparison - The growth rate of Hunan's plastic production in June 2025 was 11.2 percentage points lower than the national average [1] - The cumulative decline in Hunan's plastic production for the first half of 2025 was 16.6 percentage points lower than the national average [3]

Market Overview - On October 24, the plastic sector rose by 0.91%, with Daoshengtianhe leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3950.31, up 0.71%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13289.18, up 2.02% [1] Stock Performance - Daoshengtianhe (601026) closed at 26.39, with a gain of 10.00% and a trading volume of 445,700 shares, amounting to 1.142 billion yuan [1] - Meilian New Materials (300586) closed at 10.47, up 5.44%, with a trading volume of 213,000 shares, totaling 221 million yuan [1] - Tuen Co., Ltd. (002768) closed at 51.25, gaining 5.17% with a trading volume of 43,500 shares, amounting to 220 million yuan [1] - Other notable stocks include Stik (300806) at 26.40 (+4.60%), Wankai New Materials (301216) at 20.21 (+4.28%), and Weike Technology (301196) at 91.41 (+3.55%) [1] Capital Flow - The plastic sector saw a net inflow of 246 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net inflow of 7.9428 million yuan [2] - Notably, Daoshengtianhe had a significant net inflow of 431 million yuan from institutional investors, representing 37.80% of its trading volume [3] - Other stocks with notable capital flows include Meilian New Materials with a net inflow of 12.64 million yuan from institutional investors and a net outflow from retail investors [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the text. Core Views of the Report - The short - term outlook for the stock index is expected to be volatile. As the negative factors of trade frictions gradually ease, the stock index is expected to return to the upward channel. Even if short - term macro uncertainties increase, the adjustment space of the stock index is expected to be limited. The strategy is to go long on the stock index when opportunities arise [1]. - Different commodities have different trends. Some are expected to be volatile, some are expected to be strong, and some are influenced by multiple factors such as supply - demand, policies, and geopolitical situations [1]. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Short - term volatility, expected to return to the upward channel later, with limited adjustment space. Strategy: go long when opportunities arise [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Volatile. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - **Gold**: Short - term wide - range volatility. Geopolitical uncertainties and potential Fed rate cuts support the price, but the new round of Sino - US consultations limit the rise [1]. - **Silver**: Volatile in the short - term, and the physical situation in London needs to be monitored [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Short - term price fluctuations are intensified, but with continuous supply disturbances and an increasing Fed rate - cut expectation, it is expected to be strong [1]. - **Alumina**: With production still profitable, domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released, and production and inventory are increasing. The spot price is under pressure, and cost support needs attention [1]. - **Zinc**: After a short - term rebound, the export window closes again. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and changes in domestic and foreign inventories need attention [1]. - **Nickel**: Short - term volatility is mainly influenced by the macro situation and may be strong, but high inventory still suppresses the price. Suggestion: short - term low - buying within the range, and there is still pressure from long - term excess of primary nickel [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro situation improves, and the trade friction eases. The stainless steel futures may rebound in the short - term. It is recommended to operate in the short - term and wait for short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - **Tin**: Although the short - term impact of the Indonesian ore ban is not significant, the supply risk is high, and there is demand support. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices in the long - term [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The industrial driving force is unclear, and the futures valuation is low. Directional trading is not recommended [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward potential [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Direct demand is good, but supply is high, and inventory is at a high level. The price is under pressure and volatile [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Short - term production profit is poor, but cost support is strengthening, and direct demand is good. The price is expected to be volatile and the downward space is limited [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Follows the glass market, with a large supply - surplus pressure, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the price rebounded to fill the gap, it reached a relatively high level. It may challenge previous highs, but the breakthrough is difficult. It may be in a wide - range volatile market if there is no new policy on "anti - involution" [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia's plan to regulate exports is favorable for the far - month contract. The near - month contract lacks new drivers, and it is advisable to wait for the production area to reduce production and destock [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The pressure from US soybean prices and the support from domestic de - stocking expectations coexist. There is a lack of new drivers, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - **Canola Oil**: The negotiation on Canadian canola anti - dumping may bring negative news. The domestic canola is in short supply, and the inventory is decreasing. It is advisable to wait and see for single - side trading, and the inter - month positive spread is expected to rise [1]. - **Cotton**: There is uncertainty in new - year cotton demand. The downside space of the futures is limited, but the basis and the futures may be under pressure due to high production [1]. - **Sugar**: In the short - term, sugar prices are seasonally strong due to typhoon impacts and the gap between old and new crops. In the medium - term, the rebound space is limited after new sugar is listed [1]. - **Corn**: The current stage still focuses on the selling pressure in November. The C01 contract is expected to be in low - level volatility [1]. - **Methanol**: The MO1 contract is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see or go long in the short - term, and pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and South American weather [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The trading logic is related to the old warehouse receipts of the 11 - contract. With weak downstream demand, it is recommended to do a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1]. - **Logs**: The log fundamentals have declined, and the spot price is firm. It is advisable to wait and see after a sharp decline in the futures [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price has stabilized, but the futures still have a premium. It is necessary to wait for changes in the slaughter volume and weight, and the short - term trend is volatile [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: Influenced by US sanctions on Russia, geopolitical tensions, and the US attitude towards China's tariffs [1]. - **Bitumen**: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, following the trend of crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1]. - **SBS Rubber**: Supported by strong raw material costs, decreasing intermediate inventory, and a positive commodity market atmosphere [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost support is weak, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose. Attention should be paid to inventory de - stocking [1]. - **PTA**: The price rebounds slightly due to factors such as a decline in domestic production caused by equipment inspections [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory in East China is low, the cost support is strengthening, and the polyester market has not declined significantly [1]. - **Short - fiber**: Factory equipment is gradually resuming operation, the basis is strengthening, and the price follows the cost [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is weak, the arbitrage window to the US is closed, and domestic styrene plant inspections are increasing [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment eases, and domestic demand is insufficient. There is an upper limit to the price, but there is support from "anti - involution" and cost [1]. - **PE**: The price is volatile and slightly strong due to a slight downward adjustment in the crude oil price center, weakened inspection efforts, and slowly increasing downstream demand [1]. - **PP**: The inspection support is limited, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the price is volatile and weak [1]. - **PVC**: The supply pressure is large, there are many near - month warehouse receipts, and the price is volatile and weak [1]. - **LPG**: There are problems such as planned alumina production in Guangxi, decreasing inspection concentration, and difficult digestion of warehouse receipts. The international oil and gas fundamentals are loose, and the domestic fundamentals are also loose [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][11]. Core Insights - The company has shown resilience in its core business of adsorption materials, achieving a net profit of 652 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.27% [7][8]. - The gross profit margin has improved to 55.62% in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.42 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.96 percentage points [7][8]. - The company plans to invest 1.15 billion yuan in a new high-end materials industrial park to support the growth of its life sciences segment [9][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 686 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.86% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.29% [7]. - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 207 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.72% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 17.58% [7]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 52.81%, up 4.16 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Business Development - The life sciences segment has been a key growth driver, with ongoing investments to meet increasing demand and enhance production capacity [9]. - The company has established long-term contracts with major clients in the high-end drinking water sector, leading to increased market penetration [10]. Profit Forecast - The report projects revenues of 2.765 billion yuan, 3.425 billion yuan, and 4.274 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 932 million yuan, 1.167 billion yuan, and 1.520 billion yuan [11][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [9][17] Core Insights - The company reported a year-on-year increase in revenue and net profit for Q3, driven by the growth in high-speed electronic resins, polypropylene films, and optical film materials [5][6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.00 yuan per 10 shares (tax included) [5] - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 406 million, 513 million, and 615 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.40, 0.50, and 0.60 yuan per share [5] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.803 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 283 million yuan, up 19.8% year-on-year [5][6] - Q3 revenue reached 1.372 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.8% [5] - The gross profit margin and net profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 were 16.15% and 7.15%, respectively, showing improvements compared to the previous year [6][13] Business Segment Performance - Revenue from electrical insulation materials, new energy materials, optical film materials, electronic materials, and environmental flame retardant materials for the first three quarters of 2025 were 360 million, 998 million, 1.012 billion, 1.102 billion, and 113 million yuan, respectively [6][10] - The sales volume for optical film materials and electronic materials increased significantly, with year-on-year growth of 25.0% and 28.4%, respectively [6][10] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the orderly release of new production capacities in optical films and high-frequency high-speed resins, along with product structure optimization [5] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 48.2, 38.1, and 31.8 times, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [5][8]

Core Viewpoint - Tongyi Co., Ltd. has confirmed that its self-produced high-performance engineering plastics such as PEEK, PBT, PEI, and PPS are being utilized as key insulating materials in military connectors, indicating a strategic application in defense sectors [1] Company Summary - Tongyi Co., Ltd. produces high-performance engineering plastics including PEEK, PBT, PEI, and PPS [1] - The company has engaged with investors through an interactive platform to clarify the applications of its products [1] Industry Summary - The high-performance engineering plastics produced by the company are critical for military applications, particularly in connectors [1] - The use of these materials in military sectors highlights the growing demand for advanced materials in defense technology [1]

Report Information - Report Name: Polyethylene Risk Management Daily Report - Date: October 23, 2025 - Analyst: Dai Yifan (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0015428) - Assistant Analyst: Gu Hengye (Futures Practitioner License No.: F03143348) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The dual increase in the prices of crude oil and coking coal has driven the overall recovery of the chemical industry. Geopolitical issues have led to a rebound in oil prices, and coking coal prices have risen due to supply - side factors. The PE market currently shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing, but the overall fundamental driving force is relatively limited [3] Summary by Directory Polyethylene Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 6800 - 7200 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 8.23% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 4.9% [2] Polyethylene Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When the inventory of finished products is high and there are concerns about falling plastic prices, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short plastic futures (L2601) to lock in profits and offset production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 7150 - 7200 yuan/ton. They can also sell call options (L2601C7200) to collect premiums and reduce costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and a recommended entry range of 30 - 60 [2] Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is to be based on order situations, to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising polyethylene prices, enterprises can buy plastic futures (L2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and a recommended entry range of 6800 - 6850 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options (L2601P6800) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and if the polyethylene price falls, they can lock in the spot purchase price, with a hedging ratio of 75% and a recommended entry range of 30 - 50 [2] Core Contradictions Cost Side - Geopolitical issues, such as the tense relationship between the US and Venezuela and the upgraded sanctions on Russian oil companies, have led to a significant increase in oil prices. Coking coal prices have also risen strongly due to supply - side factors such as production cuts in some regions and reduced customs clearance of Mongolian coal [3] Supply - Demand Side - On the supply side, Baofeng's PE full - density unit 2 (550,000 tons) has stopped due to upstream compressor maintenance, while Zhenhai's HDPE unit (300,000 tons) is expected to start two weeks earlier. Additionally, ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton LDPE unit and two units of Guangxi Petrochemical are planned to start between October and November, increasing the supply pressure. On the demand side, the downstream agricultural film industry is in the peak season, with an increasing trend in both the operating rate and orders. The rebound in the futures market has also stimulated downstream speculative restocking, resulting in a relatively good overall trading volume [3] Bullish Factors - The downstream demand is still in the peak season, with an increasing trend in the operating rate and orders of the agricultural film industry. Baofeng's upstream unit maintenance has led to the shutdown of the full - density unit 2 (550,000 tons), which is expected to last for 10 days [4] Bearish Factors - ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton LDPE new unit is expected to be put into production soon. Zhenhai Refining's 3 - line HDPE unit is expected to start two weeks earlier. The current LLDPE inventory is at a high level, and the inventory reduction speed during the peak season is slower than expected. PE imports are expected to increase from October to November [5][7] Polyethylene Daily Report Table - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: The plastic main basis decreased by 38 yuan/ton compared to the previous day and 70 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The prices of L01, L05, and L09 contracts all increased. The L1 - 5, L5 - 9, and L9 - 1 spreads also changed compared to the previous day and week. The L - P spread decreased by 9 yuan/ton compared to the previous day and 3 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [7] - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China all increased. The East - North China and East - South China spreads also changed compared to the previous day and week [7] - **Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads**: The spreads between various HDPE products and LLDPE films, as well as the spread between LDPE film and LLDPE film, all decreased compared to the previous day and week [7] - **Upstream Prices and Processing Profits**: The Brent crude oil price remained unchanged compared to the previous day and increased by 1.44 US dollars/barrel compared to the previous week. The US ethane price remained unchanged compared to the previous day and increased by 0.0027 US dollars/gallon compared to the previous week. The Northwest coal price increased by 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day and remained unchanged compared to the previous week. The East China methanol price decreased by 1 yuan/ton compared to the previous day and 72 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The processing profits of various raw materials for PE also changed compared to the previous day and week [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The cost has recently driven the plastics to rebound, but the plastics lack the momentum to rise on their own. It is expected that the plastics will mainly fluctuate weakly. [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On October 23, the restart of the maintenance device of Inner Mongolia Baofeng's full - density line 2 drove the plastics operating rate up to about 86.5%, currently at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.56 percentage points to 44.92% month - on - month. The agricultural film has entered the peak season, but the peak season is not as good as expected. After the National Day, the stocking demand weakened, and downstream enterprises were not willing to purchase. New production capacities were put into operation, and the cost increased due to the rise in crude oil prices. Sino - US economic and trade relations and the lack of anti - involution policies in the plastics industry also affect the market. [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Quotes 3.2.1 Futures - The plastics 2601 contract reduced positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6934 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 7013 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6999 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.23%. The position decreased by 18375 lots to 531489 lots. [2] 3.2.2 Spot - Most of the PE spot market rose, with the price change ranging from - 50 to + 100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was quoted at 6810 - 7470 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8930 - 9930 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7230 - 8090 yuan/ton. [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - In terms of supply, on October 23, the restart of the maintenance device of Inner Mongolia Baofeng's full - density line 2 drove the plastics operating rate up to about 86.5%, currently at a neutral level. In terms of demand, as of the week of October 17, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.56 percentage points to 44.92% month - on - month. The agricultural film entered the peak season, but the overall downstream operating rate of PE was still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The petrochemical inventory after the National Day increased by 270,000 tons compared with that before the holiday, and decreased by 20,000 tons to 760,000 tons on Thursday, 10,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $64/barrel, and the ethylene prices in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia remained flat month - on - month at $770/ton and $780/ton respectively. [4]

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the production of primary plastic shapes in Guizhou Province reached 14,000 tons, marking a 15.8% increase compared to the same period in 2024, with a growth rate 0.8 percentage points higher than 2024 and 5.5 percentage points above the national average [1] - In June 2025, the production of primary plastic shapes in Guizhou Province was 3,000 tons, representing a significant 46.7% increase year-on-year, with a growth rate 43.2 percentage points higher than 2024 and 34.6 percentage points above the national average [2] Summary by Category Production Data - The cumulative production of primary plastic shapes in Guizhou Province for the first six months of 2025 was 14,000 tons, which is 15.8% higher than the same period in 2024 [1] - In June 2025, the production reached 3,000 tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 46.7% [2] Growth Comparison - The growth rate of 15.8% in the first half of 2025 is 0.8 percentage points higher than the growth rate in 2024, and 5.5 percentage points higher than the national average [1] - The June 2025 growth rate of 46.7% is 43.2 percentage points higher than June 2024, and 34.6 percentage points above the national average [2] National Context - The total production of primary plastic shapes by national scale industrial enterprises was approximately 7,012,347.53 tons in the first half of 2025, with Guizhou's contribution being 0.0% [1] - In June 2025, the national production of primary plastic shapes was around 1,203,208.99 tons, with Guizhou's share also being 0.0% [2]