橡胶板块2025年11月第3周报 潘盛杰 研究所 化工团队负责人 投资咨询从业证号：Z0014607 橡胶：泰国大量降雨，RU仓单创新低 ◼【综合分析】 期现价格：天然橡胶：青岛泰混报收14620元/吨（-36元/吨）；上海全乳胶报收14850元/吨（+200元/吨）。顺丁橡胶：普涨，山东大庆 BR9000报收10530元/吨（+160元/吨），两油资源溢价，民营牌号贴水400-500元。 供应方面：天然橡胶：云南提前停割；泰南持续降雨，胶水56.78泰铢/公斤、杯胶53.08泰铢/公斤，均涨约+1%，海外原料高企。顺丁橡胶 ：振华重启、浙江石化检修延续，周产量3.19万吨（+0.11万），产能利用率72.64%，茂名石化下周起检修50天，预计产量略降至3.17万 吨。 需求方面：轮胎开工整体下滑：半钢胎69.36%（-3.63%），全钢胎62.04%（-2.25%），终端对涨价抵触，成交转弱。。 库存方面：天然橡胶：中国社会库存106.2万吨（+0.5万吨），深色胶累库+0.8%，青岛一般贸易库继续累库，出库率降1.71%。顺丁橡胶 ：样本企业库存3.15万吨（+0.07万吨，+2.24%），期货仓单厂库去 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The market shows fluctuations, with various products such as polyester, alcohol, and related chemical products experiencing price changes and trading volume adjustments. The supply - demand relationship is complex, affected by factors like production, inventory, and market sentiment [1][2] Summary by Related Information Price and Quantity Information - There are multiple price data for different products including polyester, alcohol, etc., with values like - 1466.31, 6000.00, 2080.00, etc., and percentage changes such as (10.76)%, (10.00)%, etc. [1] - The trading volume and price of products like ethylene glycol are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and market sentiment, with prices ranging from 466 - 472 dollars per ton in some periods [2] Market Conditions - Recently, the trading of polyester yarn and alcohol has been affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship and market sentiment. The market is in a state of adjustment, with some products showing price increases and decreases [2] Investment and Business - Investment and business operations in the industry are influenced by factors such as market supply - demand, policy, and resource allocation. Enterprises need to make decisions based on comprehensive considerations of various factors [2]

Group 1: Market Information - The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts were 13,535, 13,575, and 13,740 respectively, with the price of CF01 down 5, CF05 down 25, and CF09 down 30. The closing prices of CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts were 19,760, 19,745, and 20,085 respectively, with the price of CY01 down 15, CY05 down 50, and CY09 unchanged [3]. - The CCIndex3128B spot price was 14,728 yuan/ton, up 49; the CY IndexC32S was 20,470 yuan/ton, up 30. The Cot A price was 75.65 cents/pound, and the FCY IndexC33S was 21,213 yuan/ton, up 13 [3]. - The 1 - 5 - month cotton spread was -40, up 20; the 5 - 9 - month spread was -165, up 5; the 9 - 1 - month spread was 205, down 25. The 1 - 5 - month棉纱 spread was 15, up 35; the 5 - 9 - month spread was -340, down 20,135; the 9 - 1 - month spread was 325, up 20,100 [3]. - The CY01 - CF01 spread was 6,225, down 10; the CY05 - CF05 spread was 6,170, down 25; the CY09 - CF09 spread was 6,345, up 20,115. The 1% tariff - based internal and external cotton spread was 1,317, down 218; the sliding - duty internal and external cotton spread was 493, down 120; the internal and external yarn spread was -743, up 17 [3]. Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market - As of October 15, the textile enterprises' in - stock cotton industrial inventory was 809,300 tons, a decrease of 36,200 tons from the end of last month. The available cotton inventory was 971,200 tons, a decrease of 61,100 tons from the end of last month. The yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 25.24 days, an increase of 0.39 days from the end of last month, and the grey fabric inventory was 31.43 days, an increase of 0.31 days from the end of last month [6]. - Since the new cotton acquisition started on September 26, 24 cotton acquisition and processing enterprises in Hutubi County had acquired 242,000 tons of seed cotton as of October 10, and the acquisition was expected to be completed by early December. As of mid - October, 35 cotton processing enterprises in Shaya County had acquired 215,000 tons of seed cotton, achieving the expected acquisition volume, with an average daily acquisition volume of over 20,000 tons [6]. - During the holiday, as new flowers entered the acquisition period, the market focus shifted to the opening price of new cotton. This year, the Xinjiang cotton output was high and the enthusiasm of ginning factories for acquisition was average, with no large - scale rush for acquisition. The acquisition price in some markets was around 6 yuan/kg. With the large - scale listing of new flowers, it was expected that there would be certain selling and hedging pressure on the futures market. The peak season performance of the demand side was average. Although the downstream demand had slightly improved, the improvement range was relatively limited, so the peak season performance this year was not expected to be very prominent, and the peak season demand was expected to have a relatively limited boosting effect on the market [7]. - The trading strategies were as follows: for unilateral trading, it was expected that the future trend of US cotton would mostly be volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton was also expected to show a volatile trend; for arbitrage and options, it was recommended to wait and see [8]. Cotton Yarn Industry - Last night, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated steadily, the hedging pressure gradually emerged, and the cotton spot price was stable with a slight increase. However, due to the expectation of a bumper new cotton harvest, most spinning mills remained on the sidelines, mainly replenishing raw materials on a just - in - time basis. The trading volume in the pure cotton yarn market slightly recovered, with small orders selling well, but traders were still cautious in purchasing. Affected by Zhengzhou cotton, some manufacturers continued to adjust their quotes, and the pure cotton yarn price slightly recovered. However, due to the poor orders of weaving factories, the actual transaction price did not change much. There was little change in inventory, and the inventory of some spinning mills in the inland slightly increased. It was necessary to continue to pay attention to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream demand. In addition, factors such as the China - US presidential meeting and the Fed's possible interest rate cut at the end of the month might also have an impact on external demand [8]. - The current ex - works price of Xinjiang - produced combed compact siro - spun R/JC 50/50 50S was around 25,000 yuan/ton, and the ex - works price of high - grade ring - spun C32S was 21,200 - 21,300 yuan/ton. Real - order negotiations were available [10]. - Cotton weaving factories generally reported that the recent market was significantly worse than in September. Currently, they were in the inventory accumulation stage, and there were discounts on the actual transaction price of grey fabrics. The in - production orders were mainly for medium - and thick - type fabrics, but the profit was poor, and there were few sampling orders for thin - type fabrics. Since the new downstream orders were mainly small and urgent orders, and large orders were hard to find, weaving factories mainly purchased on a just - in - time basis [10]. Group 3: Options - On October 21, 2025, the closing price of CF601C13400.CZC was 247, up 32.1%; the closing price of CF601P13000.CZC was 45, down 29.7%; the closing price of CF601P12400.CZC was 15, down 42.3%. The 120 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 8.542, with the volatility slightly decreasing compared to the previous day. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 was 9.3%, the implied volatility of CF601 - P - 13000 was 10.9%, and the implied volatility of CF601 - P - 12400 was 13.9% [12]. - Yesterday, the PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7255, and the volume PCR of the main contract was 0.6021. Today, the trading volume of both call and put options increased. The option trading strategy was to wait and see [13][14].

Core Insights - Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) announced the launch of options for Solana (SOL) and XRP futures on October 31, pending regulatory review [1] Group 1: Product Launch - CME will offer options for trading SOL, Micro SOL, XRP, and Micro XRP futures with expiration dates available for every business day, monthly, and quarterly [1] Group 2: Trading Volume - Since March 17, over 540,000 Solana futures contracts have been traded [1] - Since May 19, over 370,000 XRP futures contracts have been traded [1]

Core Points - The Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) is planning to draft the "Dalian Commodity Exchange Coking Coal Futures Options Contract (Draft for Comments)" and is currently seeking market feedback [1] Group 1 - The DCE's initiative is based on relevant laws and regulations, including the "Futures and Derivatives Law of the People's Republic of China" and the "Futures Trading Management Regulations" [1] - The public consultation aims to gather opinions from the market participants regarding the proposed contract [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The methanol market has a loose supply situation, with high domestic methanol开工率 and increasing imports. Port inventories are at a record high, while downstream demand is relatively stable. Against this backdrop, the strategy is to short at high prices rather than chase short positions [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - **Futures Market**: The futures price fluctuated and closed at 2372 (+13/+0.55%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: Different regions have different spot prices. For example, in production areas, Inner Mongolia's southern line is priced at 2040 yuan/ton, and the northern line at 2030 yuan/ton. In consumption areas, the market price in southern Shandong is 2250 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - From August 23 - 29, 2025, the international methanol (excluding China) production was 1,066,107 tons, an increase of 17,400 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 73.08%, a 1.19% increase from the previous week. During this period, Iranian plants were operating normally, while some plants in other regions had different operating conditions [4]. Logical Analysis - **Supply**: The coal - producing areas in the northwest have increased coal mine开工率 and falling coal prices. The coal - to - methanol profit is around 650 yuan/ton, and the domestic supply is loose. Import prices decreased slightly last week, and the import profit margin expanded. Iranian plants are mostly operating normally, and non - Iranian plants have stable operations [5]. - **Demand**: Traditional downstream industries are in the off - season with a decline in开工率, while the MTO device开工率 has rebounded. Some MTO plants have different operating loads [5]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories are increasing due to more imports, and the basis is strong. Inland enterprise inventories fluctuate slightly [5]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Short at high prices, do not chase short positions [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [9]. - **Options**: Sell call options [9].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high, rising by 1.04% to close at 3766.21 points, with the STAR Market leading the gains, particularly the STAR 50 index which surged by 3.23% [1] - Chipmaker Chip Origin Co., Ltd. saw a significant increase of 15.52% in its stock price, hitting the daily limit before experiencing a sell-off at the close [1] - ByteDance denied rumors of a collaboration with Chip Origin Co., Ltd. regarding AI chips, clarifying that no such partnership exists [1] Group 2 - In the futures market, lithium carbonate, pure alkali, coking coal, and coke saw the largest declines, with lithium carbonate futures hitting the daily limit down [2] - A participant in the "National Futures Simulation Championship" achieved a remarkable return of 332.71% through trading lithium carbonate options, showcasing the potential for high returns in the futures market [2][7] - The competition aims to provide a platform for investors to learn trading strategies and improve their skills, with various rewards for participants [4][19] Group 3 - The "National Futures Simulation Championship" offers participants a virtual fund of 1 million yuan for trading, allowing them to practice without financial risk [18] - The competition features a dual reward system for weekly and monthly performance, with cash prizes available for participants achieving positive returns [20] - Participants can join a community for real-time discussions and learning opportunities, enhancing their trading knowledge and skills [19][21]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a slight correction near the upper limit of its ten-year trading range at 3730 points, with high-priced stocks facing declines, particularly in sectors like liquid cooling and military industry [1][6] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 25.884 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.758 trillion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Futures and Options Market - The futures and options market offers more flexible and diverse profit-making strategies compared to the stock market. A notable example is a trader who achieved a 177% return by selling call options on lithium carbonate (lc2511) and closing positions within half an hour of the market opening [1][8] - The "Economic News Cup - National Futures Simulation Competition" is currently ongoing, providing participants with a zero-cost opportunity to practice trading with simulated funds of 1 million yuan [9][11] Competition Details - The competition features weekly and monthly rewards, with cash prizes for the top performers. The first-place winner can earn up to 1,288 yuan (pre-tax) monthly, and weekly rewards are also available [11][12] - Participants can engage in simulated trading without real financial risk, allowing them to experience leverage and trading strategies without the fear of losing real money [11][12] Participant Insights - Many participants in the competition have reported gaining valuable insights and trading strategies by interacting with experienced traders in the competition's chat groups [8][9] - Some competitors believe that the current market correction could be beneficial for a sustained upward trend, suggesting that opportunities may exist in lower-priced sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals and data centers [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has approved the registration of fuel oil, asphalt, and pulp options on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, indicating a significant development in the derivatives market [2] Group 1 - The CSRC will supervise the Shanghai Futures Exchange to ensure the smooth launch and stable operation of the new options [2]

Core Insights - The conference focused on the application of futures and options tools in risk management within the sugar industry, aiming to provide new strategies for enterprises to cope with market volatility and achieve stable operations [2][5] Group 1: Conference Overview - The "Steady Enterprises, Safe Agriculture" training conference was successfully held in Shanghai, organized by Galaxy Futures in collaboration with Dongfang Xiandao and Fan Sugar Technology, gathering nearly a hundred industry representatives [2] - Key attendees included executives from major sugar companies and research institutions, emphasizing the importance of futures and options in the sugar supply chain [2] Group 2: Economic Analysis - The current macroeconomic challenges facing the sugar industry were highlighted, with increasing volatility in commodity prices and rising operational risks for enterprises [4] - Sugar prices are crucial for the profitability of various segments within the industry, linking closely to the broader development goals of "steady enterprises and safe agriculture" [4] Group 3: Training Content - The training sessions covered domestic and international sugar supply and demand dynamics, foundational knowledge of options, and practical case studies in enterprise risk management [5] - A roundtable forum featured discussions on macroeconomic cycles, sugar price valuation, and innovative applications of options tools, providing attendees with diverse market insights and strategic references [5] Group 4: Industry Collaboration - The training conference established an efficient platform for collaboration between the sugar industry and financial markets, enhancing understanding and application of financial derivatives among enterprises [5] - Galaxy Futures aims to leverage its professional expertise to support enterprises in navigating complex market environments and achieving sustainable growth [5]