Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7][4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 79.118 billion RMB in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and a net profit of 5.487 billion RMB, up 15.09% year-on-year, which aligns with expectations [1] - The growth is attributed to the effective utilization of the old-for-new policy in the domestic market, product innovation, and channel expansion in overseas markets, as well as deepening digital reforms that enhance operational efficiency [1][2] - The company is expected to continue consolidating its competitive advantages and steadily advance its strategic development [1] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Growth - In Q1 2025, the domestic market revenue grew by 7.8%, with the Casarte brand exceeding 20% growth. The introduction of the POP digital inventory model significantly boosted retail sales [2] - Overseas revenue increased by 12.6%, with notable growth in North America and emerging markets, where sales in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East and Africa grew by over 30%, 20%, and 50% respectively [2] Cost Management and Profitability - The company's gross margin was 25.4%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, driven by digital transformation across procurement, R&D, and manufacturing [3] - The expense ratio decreased by 4.2 percentage points year-on-year, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios at 9.6%, 3.1%, and 4.2% respectively [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 21.115 billion RMB, 23.258 billion RMB, and 25.351 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.25, 2.48, and 2.70 RMB [4][6] - The target price for A-shares is set at 33.75 RMB, while the target price for H-shares is 31.31 HKD, reflecting a premium based on historical averages [4][8]

Market Overview - US stock markets closed higher on Friday, with the Dow Jones up 0.05%, Nasdaq up 1.26%, and S&P 500 up 0.74% [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.40% [1] - WTI crude oil futures rose by 0.37% to $63.02 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures increased by 0.48% to $66.87 per barrel [1] - International precious metals futures generally declined, with COMEX gold futures down 0.55% to $3330.20 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 1.43% to $33.34 per ounce [1] A-Share Market Performance - A-shares showed mixed performance on Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index saw small gains of 0.39% and 0.59% respectively [1] - The market experienced a weak recovery, with more stocks rising than falling, showing a ratio of 2832 gainers to 2371 losers [1] - Key sectors that performed well included electric power services, home appliances, machine tools, printed circuit boards, and tourism, while sectors like pet food, precious metals, and dairy products faced declines [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The electric power sector attracted significant capital flow, driven by the recent report from the National Energy Administration on green electricity certificates, which indicated a total issuance of 4.955 billion certificates by the end of 2024 [2] - The report highlighted that the transaction volume of green certificates in key regions exceeded 50% of the total, indicating strong market activity [2] - April's electricity consumption is expected to continue its recovery, with growth rates projected between 4.5% and 5.5% [2] Sector Performance - The top three sectors for net capital inflow were electric power, securities, and components, while the chemical pharmaceutical, banking, and retail sectors saw the highest net outflows [9][7] - The overall trading volume in the A-share market was 1.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 45.5 billion yuan from the previous trading day [5] Investment Strategy - The company suggests that the upcoming week, being the last before the May Day holiday, will see limited trading days and a focus on structural opportunities rather than broad market movements [8] - Investors are advised to maintain confidence and patience, avoiding blind chasing of high-flying stocks, and to look for low-entry opportunities [5] - The focus remains on domestic consumption and new productivity sectors for potential investment opportunities, with a caution on managing positions and trading frequency [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hisense Home Appliances is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 24.84 billion yuan (up 5.8% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.13 billion yuan (up 14.9%) [5] - The company has shown strong performance in its export business, with cost reduction and product structure optimization contributing to steady improvement in profitability [5] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been raised, with expected net profits of 3.84 billion yuan, 4.34 billion yuan, and 4.83 billion yuan respectively [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 10.0, 8.8, and 7.9 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating potential for alpha [5] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 21.4% (down 0.2 percentage points), while the net margin remained stable at 6.6% (up 0.03 percentage points) [7] - The company’s revenue from air conditioning and home appliances showed significant growth, with domestic sales benefiting from the "old-for-new" policy and exports continuing to optimize profitability [6] - The company’s financial summary indicates a projected revenue growth from 85.6 billion yuan in 2023 to 116.2 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.0% [8] Business Segmentation - The air conditioning segment is expected to return to growth, with a market share exceeding 20% in multi-split systems [6] - The home appliance segment is projected to grow rapidly, with exports expected to outpace domestic sales [6] - The refrigerator segment is also showing strong growth, with domestic and export sales increasing by 12% and 22% respectively in early 2025 [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hisense Home Appliances is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue reached 24.84 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.13 billion yuan, up 14.9%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.01 billion yuan, an increase of 20.3%. The strong performance in overseas sales, cost reduction, and product structure optimization contributed to the steady improvement in profitability. The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been raised, with expected net profits of 3.84 billion, 4.34 billion, and 4.83 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 2.77, 3.13, and 3.49 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 10.0, 8.8, and 7.9 times [5][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 21.4%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points, attributed to the faster growth of lower-margin overseas sales. The net profit margin was 6.6%, a year-on-year increase of 0.03 percentage points, while the net profit margin attributable to shareholders was 4.5%, up 0.4 percentage points [7] Business Segments - The central air conditioning business is expected to return to growth, with Hisense's multi-split system holding over 20% market share. The home air conditioning segment is also projected to grow rapidly, with overseas sales expected to increase at a higher rate. In Q1 2025, domestic and overseas sales of Hisense air conditioners grew by 9% and 32% respectively. The refrigerator segment maintained high single-digit growth, with domestic and overseas sales increasing by 12% and 22% respectively [6] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 100.55 billion, 108.59 billion, and 116.23 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.4%, 8.0%, and 7.0% respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow at rates of 14.8%, 13.0%, and 11.2% over the same period [8][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Midea Group [3][6]. Core Views - Midea Group reported strong revenue growth in Q1 2025, achieving an operating income of 1284.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.61%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 124.22 billion yuan, up 38.02% year-on-year [1]. - The company is experiencing rapid growth in its B-end business segments, with revenues from new energy and industrial technology, smart building technology, and robotics and automation increasing by 45%, 20%, and 9% respectively [1]. - Midea Group plans to spin off its subsidiary, Ande Intelligent Logistics, for a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is expected to enhance business management structure and unlock valuation potential for the logistics segment [1]. Financial Performance - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was reported at 25.45%, with a net profit margin of 9.97%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.45 percentage points [2]. - Operating cash flow for Q1 2025 was 143.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.81%, with cash received from sales of goods rising by 23.35% to 1092.67 billion yuan [2]. - The company forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 431.79 billion yuan, 475.1 billion yuan, and 518.21 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.0%, 10.0%, and 9.1% [3]. Financial Metrics - For the fiscal year 2025, Midea Group is projected to achieve an operating income of 439.72 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.0% [5]. - The latest diluted EPS is expected to be 5.63 yuan per share for 2025, with a projected P/E ratio of 13.2 [5]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 29.8% for 2025, indicating strong profitability [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set for the next six months [6][16]. Core Views - The company has shown a strong performance in external sales, with a notable increase in revenue and profit levels. In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 24.838 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.76%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.127 billion yuan, up 14.89% year-on-year [1][4]. - The revenue structure has shifted, impacting the gross margin, which was 21.41% in Q1 2025, a slight decrease of 0.22 percentage points year-on-year. However, the net profit margin improved to 6.58%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. Revenue Performance - Domestic sales showed stable growth, with air conditioning sales online and offline down by 3% and up by 20% respectively, while refrigerator sales increased by 1% online and 17% offline. Washing machine sales saw significant growth, with online and offline sales up by 64% and 32% respectively [2]. - External sales experienced rapid growth, with air conditioning external sales up by 32% year-on-year and refrigerator external sales up by 22% in the first two months of 2025 [2]. Financial Metrics - The company’s operating cash flow faced pressure, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 0.65 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a decrease of 58.3% year-on-year. The cash paid for goods and services was 14.344 billion yuan, an increase of 14.43% year-on-year [4]. - The company maintains a stable expense ratio, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios at 9.55%, 2.39%, 3.32%, and 0.02% respectively in Q1 2025 [3]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.85 billion yuan, 4.36 billion yuan, and 4.89 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.8x, 8.7x, and 7.7x [4][5].

Group 1: Durable Consumer Goods Industry - Companies reported an average of 35% of revenue from exports to China and 7% from exports to the U.S. [2] - Most companies are continuing to shift production overseas, with some accelerating the pace due to increased U.S. customer orders ahead of the tariff suspension period [2] - Visibility on price renegotiation remains low, with expectations that U.S. customers and end consumers will bear a larger share of tariff costs [2][4] Group 2: Automotive Industry - Automotive manufacturers are optimistic about European market sales, with minimal impact from U.S.-China trade tensions [6] - Parts suppliers are still receiving new orders from U.S. factories, and many have successfully passed on tariff costs to customers [7] - Most suppliers are maintaining their current capacity expansion and capital allocation plans, with some considering building overseas factories [7][8] Group 3: Industrial Technology Industry - Orders for capital goods saw a pause in early April but returned to normal levels by the second week [9] - Companies are facing challenges in negotiating prices due to high tariffs, with many contracts structured to pass tariff costs onto customers [10] - Most companies are expanding capacity in regions like India, Thailand, and Mexico, awaiting clearer tariff policies [11] Group 4: Solar Industry - U.S. orders for solar products have slowed due to uncertainties surrounding the Inflation Reduction Act [15] - Companies are struggling with pricing negotiations as demand weakens, and concerns about potential high tariffs could further suppress downstream demand [15] - Some companies are considering reducing U.S. operations if risks and profitability do not align favorably compared to other regions [16][18]

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 28 年 月 日 海信家电（000921.SZ） 收入业绩增长稳健，净利率稳步提升 事件：公司发布 2025 年一季报。2025Q1 实现营业收入 248.38 亿 元，同比增长 5.76%；实现归母净利润 11.27 亿元，同比增长 14.89%。 净利率稳步提升。毛利率：2025Q1 公司毛利率同比-0.22pct 至 21.41% 。费率端： 2025Q1 销 售 / 管 理 / 研 发 / 财 务 费 率 为 9.55%/2.39%/3.32%/0.02% ， 同 比 变 动 -0.45pct/- 0.25pct/+0.02pct/+0.33pct。财务费用变动主要系汇兑损益波动所 致。净利率：公司 2025Q1 净利率同比+0.03pct 至 6.58%。 销售商品收到的现金稳步增长。2025Q1 公司经营性现金流净额 0.65 亿元，同比-58.3%。其中销售商品收到的现金为 193.06 亿元， 同比+10.81%。 一季度空调行业产销稳步增长，出口表现优于内销。据奥维云网数 据，2025 年一季度空调生产 5597.2 万台 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights three main investment directions: 1) Technology AI+ led by Deepseek breakthroughs and open-source initiatives, 2) Valuation recovery and gradual revival of consumer stocks, 3) The rise of undervalued dividends [2] - Overall industry sentiment shows an upward trend in sectors such as machinery, food and beverage, non-bank financials, real estate, environmental protection, and retail, while sectors like oil and petrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, home appliances, banking, and public utilities are trending downward [2][20] - The report predicts strong performance in specific sub-industries over the next four weeks, emphasizing automotive services, general equipment, logistics, components, specialized equipment, paper, semiconductors, wind power equipment, consumer electronics, motors, textiles, optical electronics, photovoltaic equipment, jewelry, and infrastructure [2][20] Group 2 - In the agriculture sector, there is a strong short-term pig price due to a supply gap and inventory demand driven by state storage and increased channel inventory [3] - The report indicates a growing pressure on pig supply due to increasing inventory levels, with a notable rise in the number of small pigs stored [3] - The report recommends leading breeding companies such as Wens Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and New Hope, while suggesting attention to flexible stocks like Shennong Group and Dekang Animal Husbandry [3] Group 3 - The aerospace industry is experiencing growth, with the domestic C919 aircraft entering commercial operation, leading to increased orders and production capacity [4][7] - The report anticipates significant benefits for the company as a key supplier in the aerospace engine industry, particularly with the development of advanced fighter jets and drones [4][7] - Revenue projections for the company are set at 44.84 billion, 54.48 billion, and 68.54 billion for 2025-2027, with a target price of 33.96 per share [7] Group 4 - The home appliance sector is seeing a return to growth, with new business and scenarios contributing to revenue despite short-term profitability pressure [8][29] - The company reported a revenue of 19.1 billion in 2024, with a slight increase in sales from industrial pumps and significant growth in the commercial pump segment [8][29] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for the company, projecting net profits of 2.7 billion, 3.3 billion, and 3.8 billion for 2025-2027 [29] Group 5 - The report on the food and beverage sector indicates a stable performance for Laobai Ganjiu, with revenue and net profit showing slight increases [10][14] - The company is benefiting from market dynamics in Hebei and Hunan, with a positive outlook for future sales growth [10][14] - The report adjusts profit forecasts for 2025-2026, expecting net profits of 8.87 billion and 10.27 billion, reflecting a cautious but optimistic view of the market [14] Group 6 - The cosmetics and personal care sector is experiencing a temporary performance pressure, but the color cosmetics business is showing remarkable growth [14][15] - The company reported a revenue of 57.36 billion in 2024, with a significant increase in color cosmetics sales [14][15] - The report anticipates a revenue growth trajectory for 2025-2027, with adjusted profit expectations reflecting competitive pressures in the market [15]

核心看点：1）业绩再创新高！ 24 年归母净利 321.85 亿，yoy+10.91%；扣非归母 301 亿，yoy+9.19%。25Q1 归母净利 59 亿，yoy+26%；扣非归母 57 亿，yoy+26%。2）现金 流改善明显。24Q4 经营性净现金流 167 亿，环比大幅度改善；25Q1 经营性净现金流高 达 110 亿，大幅超越归母净利润。3）收入/业绩蓄水池增厚。25Q1 合同负债升至 182 亿，连续两个季度实现回升。其他流动负债（返利蓄水池）25Q1 升至 615 亿元，环比 提升。4）分红率从 45%提升至 52%，未来仍有提升空间。5）海外业务 24 年升至 282 亿，占比消费电器业务比例近 19%，比例进一步上升，预计 25 年仍会进一步提升，且 销售区域主要是新兴市场为主。6）新总裁上任，管理团队年轻化明显，我们预计将带 领公司主要聚焦在空调出海，国内业务多元化，2B 业务发展等方向实现突破。 收入端，24 年消费电器/其他业务收入同比-4.29%/-33.88%，其中参考 23A 收入结构， 消费电器包括空调+生活电器，若参考 24H1 的比例，24A 空调收入同比-4.7%，生活 ...