Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impact of U.S. agricultural policy and international trade dynamics on American farmers, particularly in the context of Argentina's recent decision to lift export taxes on soybeans, which has led to a competitive disadvantage for U.S. soybean exports to China [3][4][5]. Group 1: U.S. Agricultural Policy and Its Effects - U.S. Agriculture Secretary Rollins communicated that a $20 billion aid package to Argentina would harm American farmers by allowing Argentina to sell soybeans to China at lower prices due to the removal of export taxes [3][4]. - The lifting of Argentina's $7 billion export tax on grains has made their soybeans more competitively priced, resulting in U.S. soybeans not being sold to China during this period [5][6]. - The article emphasizes that U.S. farmers are facing immediate financial pressures as they are unable to sell their crops, leading to potential losses and spoilage [7][16]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Trade Relationships - The article explains that the removal of export taxes in Argentina allows for lower offshore prices, which attracts buyers like China, thus diverting orders away from U.S. farmers [5][8]. - The competitive pricing from Argentina is a significant factor for China, which prioritizes cost-effective and reliable sources for its agricultural imports [8][12]. - The political implications of trade decisions are highlighted, indicating that U.S. farmers are caught in the crossfire of geopolitical strategies and domestic policies [9][10]. Group 3: Structural Challenges for U.S. Farmers - Many U.S. farmers lack adequate storage facilities, leading to immediate sales pressure during harvest season, which exacerbates their financial risks [7][14]. - The reliance on futures markets and private storage has increased the vulnerability of U.S. farmers to policy changes and market fluctuations [7][15]. - The article notes that the political and economic landscape has created a situation where U.S. farmers are unable to wait for favorable conditions, resulting in urgent sales at potentially lower prices [13][16].

Core Points - The article discusses the impact of China's shift to purchasing Argentine soybeans instead of U.S. soybeans, causing significant frustration among American farmers [1][3] - American farmers feel betrayed by the Trump administration's policies, particularly the $20 billion currency swap agreement with Argentina, which they believe undermines their market [1][4] - The recent decision by Argentina to temporarily eliminate export tariffs on soybeans, corn, and wheat has led to a surge in soybean sales, further aggravating U.S. farmers [3][4] Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The U.S.-China trade war has resulted in China halting soybean imports from the U.S., leading to a significant loss of market for American farmers [1][6] - American farmers are anxious as they typically sell a large portion of their soybean harvest to China during the fall season, but this year they have seen no orders [1][3] Group 2: Argentine Soybean Market - Argentina's recent policy changes have led to a $7 billion increase in soybean sales within just two days, highlighting the competitive advantage over U.S. soybeans [3] - The Argentine government's decision to cut export tariffs is seen as a direct threat to U.S. soybean farmers, who are struggling to compete [3][4] Group 3: Farmer Sentiment - Many American farmers express disappointment and regret for supporting Trump, feeling that they have been betrayed by his administration's actions [4] - Farmers are facing financial difficulties, with some resorting to selling equipment to pay off debts due to the loss of market access [4] Group 4: Political Response - Trump has acknowledged the difficulties faced by U.S. soybean growers but blames China and former President Biden for the current situation [6] - Critics argue that Trump's trade policies have backfired, harming the very farmers he aimed to protect, and call for a more sincere approach to negotiations with China [8]

Core Insights - The U.S.-China trade war has severely impacted American farmers, particularly in the soybean sector, which has seen a dramatic decline in exports to China, resulting in losses amounting to billions of dollars [3][10]. - Despite the hardships, many farmers continue to support the Republican Party, reflecting a complex relationship between political allegiance and economic reality [6][12]. Group 1: Impact on Agriculture - The trade war has led to a significant drop in soybean exports to China, which previously accounted for about 25% of U.S. soybean sales, creating a dire situation for American farmers [3][10]. - Farmers are attempting to mitigate losses through cost-cutting measures and crop rotation, but these efforts have not been sufficient to prevent severe income reductions and potential bankruptcies [6][10]. - The agricultural sector's competitiveness is declining, with U.S. soybeans becoming a casualty of the trade conflict, affecting the entire agricultural system [10]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - China is diversifying its import sources by increasing cooperation with countries like Brazil and Argentina, thereby reducing its reliance on U.S. agricultural products [8][10]. - The misconception in the U.S. that its large consumer market can pressure other countries is being challenged, as evidenced by the Federal Trade Commission's findings that export disruptions lead to price reductions for U.S. agricultural products [8][10]. - The global market dynamics are shifting, and even if a trade agreement is reached, the U.S. agricultural sector may struggle to regain its previous market position due to the changes in supply chains [10][12].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strategies previously suggested in the semi - annual report for corn, hog, and egg futures have been verified by the market. Corn futures showed a downward trend, hog futures first rose and then declined, and egg futures also trended downwards [6][9]. - For corn, the short - term price may remain weak due to the approaching peak of new grain supply, while the medium - term presents a wide - range trading opportunity, and the long - term maintains a pricing logic related to import substitution and planting cost [124]. - The hog market is in the bottom - grinding phase. The short - term is affected by strong supply and weak demand, the medium - term has supply increase expectations, and the long - term supply situation depends on factors such as sow inventory and production efficiency [127]. - For eggs, the short - to medium - term prices are under pressure due to the end of the holiday stocking period, and the long - term supply pressure may re - emerge if the chicken culling rate is lower than expected [134]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Corn Macro Logic - Internationally, the macro - driving force is gradually weakening; domestically, it is mainly reflected in industrial policies [124]. Industrial Logic - The industry has entered a passive inventory - building cycle, with attention on policies such as reserve acquisitions, auctions of targeted rice/imported corn, and grain import policies [124]. Supply and Demand Logic - **Supply**: Globally, the corn supply situation is tightening, while in the US, there is significant supply pressure. In China, there is a long - term corn supply - demand gap, and the pricing logic based on substitutes remains. In the medium - term, factors like new - year yield and planting cost are key, and in the short - term, the new grain price started high and then dropped, with the upcoming peak supply in October [124]. - **Demand**: In 2025, the hog production capacity increased, and the存栏 of egg - laying and meat - producing poultry remained high, providing rigid support for corn consumption. Deep - processing consumption is relatively stable [124]. Variety Viewpoint - Short - term: The new grain price may remain weak. The lower support on the futures market is around the planting cost of new - season corn, and the upper pressure is related to the wheat - corn price difference. - Medium - term: Conduct band trading based on new - season corn factors, and focus on band - buying opportunities supported by reserve policies. - Long - term: Maintain the pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost, and pay attention to import policies and grain auctions [124]. Trading Strategy - Adopt an interval trading strategy in the medium - to long - term. In the fourth quarter, focus on band - buying opportunities supported by planting cost around 2100 yuan/ton [124]. Hog Macro Logic - Domestically, pay attention to the interaction between CPI and hog prices, and focus on industrial policy directions [125]. Industrial Logic - Under the guidance of capacity - reduction policies, the structure of the hog - breeding market may change. Market share is concentrating on leading enterprises, but the implementation of sow - reduction policies and its impact on supply are still uncertain [125]. Supply and Demand Logic - **Supply**: In the fourth quarter, the supply will continue to increase. The supply pressure in the first half of 2026 remains significant, and it may start to ease in the second half of 2026, depending on factors such as MSY and slaughter weight [126]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand for hogs is relatively stable, showing seasonal patterns. The increase in consumption during the end - of - year season may be limited [126]. Market Viewpoint - The hog price is in the bottom - grinding phase. The short - term is pressured by strong supply and weak demand, the medium - term has supply increase expectations, and the long - term supply situation depends on sow inventory and production efficiency. The possibility and amplitude of a seasonal rebound in the fourth quarter depend on the slaughter weight [127]. Operation Suggestion - The hog market is in the second half of the second half of the small cycle of passive capacity reduction due to diseases. The futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. For contracts before 2605, the supply is mainly determined by supply - demand logic, while for contracts after 2605, it depends on the implementation of capacity - reduction policies [128]. Egg Macro Logic - Domestically, pay attention to raw material prices, CPI changes, and the impact of meat and vegetable prices in the second half of the year [132]. Industrial Logic - The egg - laying chicken breeding industry has been profitable for four years, and the scale - up rate continues to increase, which will change the industry's structure and production efficiency [132]. Supply and Demand Logic - **Supply**: The egg - laying chicken inventory is at a high level, and the supply pressure persists. The current high inventory and the low chicken culling rate may lead to continued supply pressure in the fourth quarter [132]. - **Demand**: After the pre - holiday stocking period, the supply - demand situation is expected to be loose from October to November. The consumption support for egg prices may be weakened due to the extended holiday stocking period [133]. Variety Viewpoint - Short - to medium - term: The end of holiday stocking leads to slower sales and rising inventory, pressuring egg prices. Long - term: Pay attention to the chicken culling rate, as the current low culling rate may cause supply pressure to re - emerge in the fourth quarter [134]. Trading Strategy - The futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Before large - scale chicken culling, adopt a short - selling strategy for near - term contracts. Egg - breeding enterprises can also consider selling - hedging opportunities for contracts 2607 and 2608 [135].

Core Insights - The U.S. soybean industry is facing an "export crisis" with storage facilities nearly empty and farmers struggling to sell their crops due to a significant drop in demand, particularly from China, which has shifted its purchases to South America [1][3][5] - The impact of Trump's tariff policies is evident, as they have raised soybean prices, making U.S. soybeans less attractive to Chinese buyers, who are now diversifying their import sources [7][16] - The U.S. government has provided subsidies, but these are insufficient and do not address the underlying market issues caused by trade policies [5][18] Group 1 - The primary issue is the lack of buyers for U.S. soybeans, especially from China, which previously was the largest customer [3][5] - Farmers are experiencing significant distress as they have a good harvest but are unable to sell their crops, leading to a situation where soybeans are considered "unsold goods" [3][5] - China's refusal to purchase U.S. soybeans is linked to the imposition of tariffs, which they view as unfair trade practices [5][7] Group 2 - The U.S. administration is caught in a dilemma between maintaining a tough stance against China and the need to secure agricultural votes from farming states [11][20] - Trump's contradictory statements about the need for China as a market while simultaneously refusing to lift tariffs create confusion and undermine credibility [11][20] - The U.S. government's attempts to find new markets are unrealistic, as few countries can match China's purchasing power and stability [13][20] Group 3 - The core of the soybean issue lies not in supply and demand but in the policy approach and negotiation tactics employed by the U.S. [16][22] - China is open to purchasing U.S. soybeans but insists on the removal of tariffs as a prerequisite for any trade [18][25] - The future of U.S.-China trade relations hinges on the U.S. willingness to engage in fair negotiations rather than relying on pressure tactics [20][25]

Core Insights - Despite a record agricultural yield in the U.S. this year, farmers are experiencing a significant decline in sentiment due to market access issues and falling prices, primarily attributed to the ongoing trade war [1][2][3] Group 1: Farmer Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The Purdue University and Chicago Mercantile Exchange's agricultural economic index shows a continuous decline in farmer sentiment for July and August [1] - Farmers are facing record-high expenses before the harvest, while the prices they can sell their crops for are lower than previous years [2] - The trade war has led to increased costs for agricultural machinery and fertilizers, further straining farmers' financial situations [1][3] Group 2: Impact of Trade Policies - The U.S. soybean exports to China have ceased since May, marking the first time in nearly 30 years that China has not purchased American soybeans [3] - Other countries, such as Brazil and Argentina, are capitalizing on the U.S. trade war by increasing their market share in China [3] - Farmers are expressing frustration with the government's trade policies, which they believe are detrimental to their market access and profitability [6] Group 3: Government Response and Farmer Needs - The U.S. government has made promises to farmers regarding trade agreements and subsidies, but these commitments have not been fulfilled [6] - Farmers are demanding market access rather than financial compensation, emphasizing the need for a stable market environment [6][5] - The political implications of the agricultural crisis are significant, especially in key Republican states ahead of the upcoming midterm elections [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints The report presents overnight market information, including data on the US soybean harvest, export, and Brazilian soybean and corn sowing, as well as some price - related data [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content US Soybean Information - As of the week ending September 28, 2025, the US soybean harvest rate was 19%, in line with market expectations, compared to 9% the previous week, 24% last year, and a five - year average of 20% [1]. - As of the week ending September 28, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 62%, higher than the expected 60%, compared to 61% the previous week and 64% last year [1]. - As of the week ending September 28, 2025, the US soybean defoliation rate was 79%, compared to 61% the previous week, 79% last year, and a five - year average of 77% [1]. - As of the week ending September 25, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 593,956 tons, within the market forecast range of 450,000 - 900,000 tons, compared to a revised 565,630 tons the previous week [1]. - As of the current crop year (starting September 1, 2025), the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume was 2,246,104 tons, compared to 1,929,770 tons in the same period last year [1]. Brazilian Crop Information - As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing area reached 3.2% of the expected total area, higher than 0.9% a week ago and 2% last year [1]. - Brazil's 2025/26 first - season corn sowing in the core south - central region was 32% of the expected area, compared to 30% last year [1]. Price Information | Date | Bean Meal (Jiangsu) | Rapeseed Meal (Guangdong) | Soybean Oil (Jiangsu) | Palm Oil (Guangzhou) | Rapeseed Oil (Jiangsu) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/09/23 | 2870 | 2530 | 8250 | 8980 | 10180 | | 2025/09/24 | 2880 | 2490 | 8330 | 9050 | 10120 | | 2025/09/25 | 2890 | 2520 | 8330 | 9140 | 10330 | | 2025/09/26 | 2880 | 2500 | 8430 | 9160 | 10400 | | 2025/09/29 | 2880 | 2500 | 8390 | 9150 | 10340 | [1][10]

Group 1: Commodity Price Trends - As of September 26, 2023, the December soybean futures price closed at 1013.75 cents per bushel, reflecting a slight increase of 0.32% this year, but a significant decline of 28.63% over the past three years. The December corn futures price was 422 cents per bushel, down 7.96% year-to-date and 36.97% over three years [1] - Since reaching historical highs in 2022, the price index for CME soybean and corn futures has shown a slow downward trend, returning to levels seen several years ago [1] Group 2: Agricultural Economic Challenges - U.S. farmers are heavily reliant on weather conditions for their harvests, and agricultural yields directly impact their income. Rising production costs due to prolonged inflation have reached historical highs, while soybean and corn prices have remained low for several years, causing significant financial strain on farmers [4] - A survey conducted among 1,034 corn farmers revealed that nearly half (46%) believe the U.S. is on the brink of a farm crisis, with 80% expressing concerns about the economic viability of their farms [4][5] Group 3: Political Implications of Agriculture - The agricultural sector's performance is closely tied to U.S. political dynamics, particularly in key soybean and corn-producing states that predominantly lean Republican. The economic conditions of farmers can influence election outcomes, especially in swing states [6][7] - The Trump administration's proposed "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" aims to allocate approximately $66 billion to the agricultural sector, but the majority of this funding is directed towards production safety networks, leaving farmers with minimal relief amid rising costs [8] Group 4: Tariff Impact on Agriculture - High tariffs have been identified as a significant factor contributing to the challenges faced by U.S. agriculture, with the OECD predicting a decline in economic growth rates due to these policies. The actual tax rate is expected to rise to its highest level since 1933, further straining the agricultural sector [9] - The agricultural workforce, which numbers around 3.4 million, may see a decline in recent years, reflecting the broader economic pressures affecting this critical industry [9] Group 5: Market vs. Government Intervention - The debate continues over whether to rely on market mechanisms or government intervention to address agricultural challenges. Market principles suggest reducing trade barriers, while government intervention typically involves subsidies. However, the effectiveness of subsidies is limited given the federal government's high debt levels [10]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - Short - term, take a short - side allocation for soybeans and a bearish view on corn; for the long - term, wait for the bottom for corn, and there is no clear long - term rating for soybeans [8][12] Core View - National soybean production is expected to remain above 21 million tons, with a supply - demand imbalance leading to a likely price trend of high - opening and low - closing. Corn production is likely to increase, with a high - opening and low - closing price, and no major unilateral market is expected this year [8][12] Content Summary by Category 1. Soybean - **Planting and Yield**: Influenced by policies and subsidies, the planting area of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang increased in 2025. Western regions maintained stable yields, while eastern regions had significant yield declines. Overall, the provincial yield was flat or slightly increased, and national production is expected to remain above 21 million tons [6] - **Cost and Subsidies**: The land rent cost of new - season domestic soybeans decreased, especially in the east. The comprehensive agricultural input cost was about 3,000 - 4,500 yuan/ha. Soybean subsidies were significantly higher than those for corn [7] - **Protein Content**: Due to the government's encouragement of high - oil soybean planting, the proportion of high - protein soybeans in Heilongjiang was about 40%, and the high - and low - protein differentiation was severe [7] - **Downstream Industry**: The downstream industry of domestic soybeans was not optimistic, with a supply - demand imbalance. Non - GMO soybean pressing enterprises faced challenges, and food and protein enterprises had stable processing and consumption but no growth in demand [8] - **Price Outlook**: The price of soybeans may open high and close low. When the rough grain price is below 1.75 - 1.8 yuan/jin, farmers may hold back sales. The short - term strategy is a short - side allocation [8] 2. Corn - **Planting and Yield**: Due to factors such as weather, subsidies, and economic benefits, the corn planting area in Heilongjiang decreased year - on - year, especially in the east. Most areas had increased yields, and the overall production was slightly higher than last year but lower than 2023 [11] - **Cost and Quality**: The land rent cost was the same as that of soybeans, and the agricultural input cost in the east was basically unchanged. The quality of new - season corn was better than last year, especially in terms of high bulk density [11] - **Price and Market**: The opening price of corn was high but trended down. The short - term market was bearish, and the long - term market needed to wait for the bottom. The market was likely to be volatile with a smaller amplitude than last year [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Without significant policy and weather changes, under the expectation of new - season corn selling pressure and decreased planting costs, C01 is expected to oscillate and build a bottom. Pay attention to the inventory - building rhythm of traders and policy changes. After the selling pressure of new grains is further realized, C09 can be selectively bought at low prices [1]. - Global major corn - exporting countries' corn inventory - to - consumption ratios are rising. In the 2025/26 season, the US corn inventory - to - consumption ratio is raised from 8.65% in the 2024/25 season to 13.14%, and that of the world's major corn - exporting countries is raised from 7.71% to 9.73% [5][130]. - The new - season corn is expected to have a bumper harvest, and the planting cost is decreasing. The national planting area in the 2025/26 season is expected to slightly decrease year - on - year, but due to suitable weather during the planting period, the yield per unit is expected to significantly increase year - on - year. The new - season corn collection and port cost is expected to further drop to around 1950 - 2100 yuan/ton [5][130]. - In the 24/25 season, domestic grain imports significantly decreased. Pay attention to policy changes in the 25/26 season [5][130]. - The inventory at the northern ports is at a low level, and the north - south trade profit is expected to recover. As the supply of old grains is coming to an end and new grains have not been widely listed, the corn inventory at the northern ports has gradually decreased to a low level, and the corn inventory at the southern ports has also decreased. After the inventory at the southern ports is digested, there is an expected demand for the outflow of grain sources from the Northeast, and the north - south trade price difference is expected to gradually recover [5][131]. - In 2025, the feed demand supports corn consumption. Pay attention to the capacity reduction situation in the breeding sector. From the perspective of the number of fertile sows and body weight, the current capacity reduction is not obvious. It is expected that the pig slaughter volume will continue to increase until February 2026, and poultry is expected to maintain a high inventory, supporting the feed demand. Feed enterprises' inventory levels have dropped to a low level, and there is a rigid demand for replenishing inventory [5][131]. - The deep - processing demand has decreased. Pay attention to the peak - season consumption. This year, the deep - processing corn consumption has significantly decreased compared with last year. Deep - processing enterprises have a deep loss in processing profit and have adopted a strategy of reducing the operation rate and waiting for inventory digestion. Pay attention to the inventory reduction situation during the starch consumption peak season. The raw - material corn inventory level has dropped to a low level, and there is a rigid demand for replenishing inventory [5][131]. - The wheat - corn price difference is gradually moving out of the substitution range. As new - season corn is gradually listed, the wheat - corn price difference is gradually moving out of the substitution range. Recently, wheat procurement and storage have been continuously strengthened. Some areas in North China with excessive corn mycotoxins still have a willingness to purchase wheat, which supports the wheat price to a certain extent. Pay attention to the spot trend of wheat after the wheat procurement - support policy ends at the end of September [5][131]. - Pay attention to the procurement and storage policy. The procurement and storage policy is expected to boost the corn price during the grain - selling period. Pay attention to the release time and procurement price of the procurement and storage announcement in the 25/26 season [5][132]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review 1.1 CBOT Corn Market Review - From January to late February 2025, the USDA January supply - demand report significantly lowered the yield per unit of US corn in the 2024/25 season, tightening the supply - demand of old grains and raising the price center of US corn. Drought in South America and international trade policies affected the market, causing the CBOT to oscillate upwards [6]. - From late February to the end of March 2025, the low soybean - corn price ratio led to an expectation of an increase in the planting area of new - season US corn. The sowing season in the US and improved weather in South America, along with international trade tensions, caused the CBOT to decline under pressure [6]. - From the end of March to mid - April 2025, rainfall in US corn - producing areas delayed the sowing progress. Trump's suspension of tariff measures on most countries except China led to a phased rebound in the CBOT [6]. - From mid - April to mid - August 2025, suitable weather during the growth period of US corn, an increase in the planting area, and an expectation of a loose global grain market supply - demand in the 25/26 season caused the US corn price to decline under pressure [6]. - From mid - August to now in 2025, less rainfall in US corn - producing areas affected the yield per unit, but strong export sales at low prices pushed the price to rebound at a low level [7]. 1.2 DCE Corn Market Review - From early January to mid - March 2025, farmers' grain - selling progress advanced, and the purchasing mentality of the middle and lower reaches improved. The futures market had a premium over the spot market under the expectation of the procurement and storage policy [10]. - From mid - March to late June 2025, the impact of the procurement and storage policy gradually diminished. With reduced imports and good demand, the overall supply - demand was expected to tighten, and the market showed a bottom - rising and oscillating - upward trend. Various factors affected the fluctuation rhythm [10]. - From late June to late August 2025, slow inventory reduction at ports, high warehouse - receipt pressure, weak wheat prices, and the substitution of wheat for corn in feed led to insufficient downstream demand support. With suitable growth weather for new grains and an expectation of a bumper harvest and lower planting costs, the market shifted from trading the low carry - over of old grains to trading the high - yield expectation of new grains and declined under pressure [10]. - From late August to early September 2025, the supply of old grains tightened, new grains had not been widely listed, and the inventory at the northern ports, feed enterprises, and deep - processing enterprises decreased to a low level. The spot market was relatively strong under the low carry - over of old grains, and rainfall in North China delayed the listing, causing the market to rebound [10]. - From early September to now in 2025, new grains have been gradually listed, the price of deep - processing in the north has been under pressure, and the market has returned to a downward trend due to the expectation of new - grain selling pressure and decreased planting costs [11]. 2. Global Major Exporting Countries' Corn Inventory - to - Consumption Ratios Are Rising - In the 2025/26 season, the global corn production is estimated to be 1.287 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 57.67 million tons, reaching the highest level in history. The US corn production is estimated to be 427 million tons, and the US corn inventory - to - consumption ratio is raised from 8.65% in the 2024/25 season to 13.14%. The inventory - to - consumption ratio of the world's major corn - exporting countries is raised from 7.71% to 9.73%, and the global corn supply is expected to recover [15]. 2.1 US Corn Inventory - to - Sales Ratio Is Raised, and Export Performance Is Good - According to the USDA September supply - demand report, the US corn planting area in the 2025/26 season is further raised to 98.7 million acres, an increase of 8.1 million acres compared with the 2024/25 season. Although the yield per unit is slightly lowered, it is still at a historically high level. As of September 21, the US corn excellent - rate is 66%, at a high level in the same period over the years. The US corn inventory - to - consumption ratio in the 2025/26 season is estimated to be 13.14%, an increase of 4.49% compared with the previous year [18][19]. - With the US corn price dropping to a low level, its cost - effectiveness advantage in the international corn market is emerging, and its export performance is good. Mexico and Japan are still the main purchasers of US corn. However, due to Sino - US trade frictions and China's domestic import - restriction policies, the export volume of US corn to China is expected to significantly decrease this year [21]. 2.2 South American Corn Maintains a Bumper - Harvest Expectation - Brazil's total corn production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 138.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.02% compared with the previous year. From January to September 2025, Brazil's corn export volume reached 24.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. Brazil's first - crop corn is about to enter the sowing season, and pay attention to the weather in the producing areas. Argentina's corn has started sowing, and its planting area in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 7.8 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%, reaching the second - highest level in history [26]. 2.3 Ukraine's Corn Production Recovers - In the 2024/25 season, hot and dry weather led to a reduction in Ukraine's corn production. In the 2025/26 season, Ukraine's corn production is expected to recover. It is estimated to be 32 million tons, an increase of 5.2 million tons compared with the previous year, and the export volume is estimated to be 25.5 million tons, an increase of 4.9 million tons compared with the previous year [28][30]. 3. New - Season Corn Bumper - Harvest Expectation and Review of Recent Selling - Pressure Market Conditions - Recently, new - season corn has been gradually listed. The arrival volume of corn at the northern ports and the morning arrival volume of trucks at Shandong deep - processing enterprises have increased. Northeast deep - processing enterprises have significantly reduced prices, and the price decline in North China has slowed down due to rainfall, but it is still expected to be under pressure after the weather clears. Overall, the 2025/26 season's national planting area is expected to slightly decrease year - on - year, but due to suitable weather during the planting period, the yield per unit is expected to significantly increase year - on - year, and the whole country maintains a bumper - harvest expectation. The corn planting cost is expected to further decline, and the new - season corn collection and port cost is expected to further drop to around 1950 - 2100 yuan/ton [31][32]. - Reviewing the recent new - season selling - pressure market conditions, in 2023, after trading the tail - end increase of old grains, the market traded the expectation of new - season corn's bumper - harvest selling pressure, and the futures drove the spot price down to the cost range. In 2024, the market started to trade the expectation of new - season corn's bumper - harvest selling pressure in early July, and the corn price significantly dropped below the cost range. In 2025, under the expectation of new - season corn's autumn - harvest selling pressure and decreased planting costs, the corn futures and spot prices have been under pressure since late June. However, it is expected that the market will not significantly drop below the planting cost like last year because traders' inventory - building enthusiasm is expected to increase year - on - year [40]. 4. Import Volume Decreased in the 24/25 Season, Pay Attention to Policy Changes in the 25/26 Season - Since 2019, after the domestic corn reserve inventory was basically depleted, the domestic corn production - demand gap has been supplemented by imported grains and domestic substitute grains. In 2024, China began to restrict the import volume of bonded - area corn and further clarified the control of the import scale of corn, sorghum, and barley. In 2025, major import enterprises were interviewed again to emphasize the control of the later - stage grain import quantity. In the 24/25 season, the domestic import of grains significantly decreased, which promoted the demand to return to domestic grains. From January to August 2025, China's imported corn arrival was only 877,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 93%; the imported sorghum was 2.9789 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49%; and the imported barley was 6.5907 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39%. Under the current Sino - US tariff policy, the import profit of US corn to the southern domestic market is negative, while Brazilian corn has an import profit, with the theoretical import profit of September - shipment corn being about 186 yuan/ton [47]. 5. Northern Port Inventory at a Low Level, North - South Trade Profit Recovering - As the supply of old grains is coming to an end and new grains have not been widely listed, the corn inventory at the northern ports has gradually decreased to a low level, and the corn inventory at the southern ports has also decreased. As of September 12, 2025, the total corn inventory at the four northern ports was 729,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 216,000 tons; the shipping volume of the four northern ports that week was 321,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,000 tons. As of September 19, 2025, the domestic - trade corn inventory at Guangdong Port was 308,000 tons, a decrease of 293,000 tons compared with the previous week; the foreign - trade inventory was 67,000 tons, an increase of 67,000 tons compared with the previous week; the imported sorghum was 374,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons compared with the previous week; and the imported barley was 905,000 tons, an increase of 85,000 tons compared with the previous week. After the inventory at the southern ports is digested, there is an expected demand for the outflow of grain sources from the Northeast, and the north - south trade price difference is expected to gradually recover [53]. 6. Feed Demand in 2025 Supports Corn Consumption, Pay Attention to Capacity Reduction in the Breeding Sector - According to the China Feed Industry Association, from January to August 2025, the feed production reached 216.18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.92 million tons. Due to the decrease in imported substitute grains, the proportion of corn added in compound feed from January to August this year was generally higher than the same period in previous years. However, due to the substitution of domestic wheat, the proportion of corn added decreased from May to August and is expected to continue until September [66]. - From the perspective of the number of fertile sows, the monthly change in the number of fertile sows in the second half of 2025 is small. As of July 2025, the national number of fertile sows was 40.42 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 0.02%. The de - stocking degree is limited, and no continuous capacity contraction has been formed. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium on pig - production capacity regulation on September 16, aiming to reduce the number of fertile sows by 1 million by the end of this year, approximately to around 39.5 million. From the perspective of body weight, the national pig body weight has not decreased significantly, and the current national average slaughter weight is 128.55 kg, still at a high level in the same period over the years. Affected by breeding profits and low feed costs, secondary fattening continues to roll, which hinders the active weight reduction [68]. - From the perspective of pig slaughter volume, the slaughter volume has significantly increased month - by - month in the third quarter, reflecting the recovery of the piglet production capacity in spring. It is estimated from the number of piglet inventories that the pig slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase until February 2026, with a more obvious increase in October. Due to the high pig slaughter volume and body weight, the pig price is under pressure and declining, and the breeding profit is continuously shrinking. If the breeding profit continues to be in deficit for more than a quarter, it may promote enterprises to reduce capacity [69]. - In terms of poultry, the high inventory supports the feed demand. In the short term, meat poultry is expected to maintain a high inventory due to the large number of grandparent - stock introductions and the high inventory of in - production breeding chickens in the early stage. For egg - laying poultry, the inventory increased month - on - month in August, and the previous active replenishment will continue to be reflected in production until the end of the year. Under the expectation of a bumper harvest of new - season corn, feed enterprises have adopted a low - inventory strategy, and the inventory level has significantly dropped to a low level, with limited room for further reduction, and there is a rigid demand for replenishing inventory [80][90]. 7. Deep - Processing Demand Decreases, Pay Attention to Peak - Season Consumption - This year, the