来源：市场资讯 （来源：21Style） 银条叠放于金条之上，21世纪经济报道记者/摄 文丨黄子潇 编辑丨孙超逸 高梦阳 在上金所、上期所元旦休市期间，全国最大的黄金珠宝现货交易市场——深圳水贝的交易并未停歇。 1月4日， 21世纪经济报道记者走访深圳水贝市场时注意到，部分商家将银条叠放在金条之上售卖。 按照常规的销售思路，商家往往会把最畅销或者价值最高的商品置于显眼之处。 不过，水贝商家向记者给出了更直白的原因：新进货的银条没地方摆了。因此，更为昂贵的金条只能"屈居其下"。 这也侧面反映出，这批银条大概率是商家的匆忙补货，柜台甚至还没来得及为其"腾出空间"。 值得注意的是，银价自去年12月29日触及高点后，"被浇了盆冷水"，已开始回调。 Wind数据显示，自2025年12月29日至2026年1月4日，COMEX黄金本周下跌4.63%；而COMEX白银本周下跌6.39%，跌幅大于黄金。 疯狂的白银 一时间，即便溢价出售的银条仍供不应求。在此期间，部分商家亦加入队伍，愿出高价向料商购入银板、银条。 有店家对记者直言，元旦假期前后，白银拿料变得困难，甚至加工费也一路水涨船高。 不过，水贝实物白银短缺的情况已出现明 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses investment strategies, emphasizing the balance between index funds and individual stocks for portfolio diversification and potential higher returns [1][7][12]. Index Funds - Index funds are passively managed and aim to replicate the performance of a specific market benchmark, such as the S&P 500 [4][3]. - Research indicates that approximately 88% of actively managed large-cap funds underperformed the S&P 500 over a 15-year period ending June 30, 2025 [2]. - Investing in index funds is generally recommended for long-term savings due to their lower fees and consistent performance compared to actively managed funds [2][4]. Individual Stocks - Cramer suggests allocating 45% to 50% of a portfolio to five individual stocks that demonstrate innovative products, competitive advantages, and consistent earnings growth [7][10]. - The article highlights the potential for individual stocks to outperform the market, citing Nvidia's 1,291% increase in value over five years compared to the S&P 500's 95% rise [9][10]. - Cramer advises that younger investors may consider including more speculative stocks in their portfolio for greater upside potential, acknowledging the associated risks [8][10]. Insurance Assets - Cramer recommends allocating 5% to 10% of an investment portfolio to "insurance" assets, such as gold and bitcoin, to hedge against market downturns [12][15]. - The price of gold has significantly increased from $1,112.50 per ounce in February 2010 to $4,032.70 in November 2025, demonstrating its value retention over time [13]. - Bitcoin's value has fluctuated dramatically, reaching over $126,000 in October 2025, but it is considered a high-risk investment due to its volatility and regulatory concerns [14][15]. Strategy Evaluation - Cramer's investment strategy is seen as valid but potentially risky, particularly regarding the lack of diversification in the individual stock portion [16]. - Investors are encouraged to conduct thorough research on individual stocks and understand the risks associated with assets like bitcoin and gold [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has experienced significant volatility, with silver prices rising approximately 140% in 2025, outperforming gold's 60% increase, leading to a surge in demand for physical silver in markets like Shenzhen's Shui Bei [6][19]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - During the New Year holiday, Shenzhen's Shui Bei market remained active, with some merchants stacking silver bars on top of gold bars due to space constraints, indicating a rush to replenish silver inventory [1][2][3]. - Silver prices have started to decline after reaching a peak on December 29, 2025, with COMEX gold dropping 4.63% and COMEX silver falling 6.39% from December 29 to January 4, 2026 [4][17]. - The demand for physical silver led to a shift from on-site trading to off-site purchases, with investors flocking to Shui Bei to buy silver bars and ingots, resulting in some items being pre-ordered [8][9]. Group 2: Supply and Demand - The supply of physical silver has shown signs of improvement post-New Year, with multiple merchants reporting available stock without the need for pre-orders, suggesting a return to a more rational market [9][17]. - The price of silver on January 4 was reported at 21 yuan, down from a high of 23.2 yuan the previous week, with investment-grade silver bars averaging around 19.5 yuan [9][12]. - The market for silver has been characterized by high volatility, with a significant increase in physical delivery demand pushing prices higher, but recent adjustments have led to a more stable supply situation [15][19]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Investors in silver primarily utilize three channels: public funds (which have imposed purchase limits), futures trading, and physical silver, with the latter having higher storage costs compared to gold [19]. - The silver market is less liquid than gold, with a larger price spread between buying and selling prices, indicating potential challenges for investors [19]. - Analysts suggest that the recent surge in silver prices is driven by a combination of financial re-evaluation, tight physical supply, market sentiment, and macroeconomic factors, with regional inventory shifts playing a crucial role [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent fluctuations in silver and gold prices, emphasizing the strong demand for silver and the subsequent market adjustments as supply issues ease. It notes a shift in investor focus back to gold despite silver's recent performance. Group 1: Market Dynamics - During the New Year holiday, the Shenzhen Shui Bei market continued trading, with some merchants stacking silver bars on top of gold bars due to space constraints, indicating a rush to replenish silver stock [1][6] - Silver prices surged approximately 140% in 2025, outperforming gold's 60% increase, leading to a significant shift in trading behavior from on-site to off-site [5][12] - The demand for physical silver led to a temporary shortage, with some investors unable to purchase silver bars, but this situation has since stabilized, with silver now available without pre-ordering [5][9] Group 2: Price Adjustments - As of January 4, silver prices in Shui Bei dropped to around 21 yuan, down from a peak of 23.2 yuan, while investment-grade silver bars averaged 19.5 yuan per gram [5][9] - The article notes that the recent volatility in silver and gold prices is partly due to increased margin requirements by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which has led to significant price corrections [10][12] Group 3: Investor Behavior - Despite the recent hype around silver, inquiries about gold investments during the New Year period remained higher than those for silver, indicating a continued preference for gold among investors [8][9] - The article suggests that the silver market may have experienced excessive speculation, as evidenced by the shift in focus back to gold and the stabilization of silver supply [9][12] Group 4: Future Outlook - The silver market is at a crossroads, with various factors influencing its future, including financial re-evaluations, supply-demand dynamics, and macroeconomic conditions [13] - Analysts predict that the upcoming rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index could lead to significant sell-offs in both silver and gold, potentially impacting market stability [15][17]

Group 1 - The article presents an outlook for various precious metals, including palladium, rhodium, ruthenium, platinum, iridium, and osmium, indicating their projected prices for 2026 [1][4][5] - Specific price forecasts for palladium, rhodium, and platinum are highlighted, with palladium expected to be around 46, rhodium at 45, and platinum at 78 [1][4] - The data suggests a trend in the precious metals market, reflecting potential investment opportunities in these commodities as their values are projected to change significantly by 2026 [1][4]

Gold and silver steadied at the beginning of the year after their best annual performances since 1979 as traders assessed the reweighting of a benchmark commodity index that starts next week. Bullion gained as much as 1.9% on Friday before paring most gains during US hours. Silver eased after earlier climbing as much as 4%. While traders have flagged the metals could do well this year on further US interest-rate cuts and dollar weakness, there’s concern that a broad index rebalancing might pressure prices ...

Group 1 - The Hecht Commodity Report is a comprehensive source for commodities analysis, covering over 29 different commodities and providing various trading recommendations [1] - In 2025, gold experienced a 64.37% price increase, marking its ninth consecutive quarterly gain and setting a new record for quarterly performance [2] - The report includes bullish, bearish, and neutral calls, along with actionable ideas for traders and investors [1][2] Group 2 - The author, Andrew Hecht, has 35 years of experience on Wall Street, specializing in commodities and precious metals [2] - The report serves as a valuable resource for understanding market movements and making informed trading decisions [1][2]

Group 1 - The article discusses the pricing of fine gold and silver, indicating a price of $72.00 for gold and $4,550 for silver [1][2] - The weights mentioned for silver are 1000g and 10000g, suggesting a focus on high-value precious metals [1][2] Group 2 - The author, Neils Christensen, has over a decade of experience in financial reporting, particularly in the Canadian financial sector since 2007 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metal market, particularly gold, experienced significant gains in 2025, with gold rising over 66% and reaching approximately $4,325 per ounce by year-end, marking the best percentage gain since 1979 [1][9]. Gold Market Insights - Bank of America forecasts gold prices to reach $5,000 per ounce, driven by continued central bank buying, rising U.S. fiscal deficits, and a weaker U.S. dollar, which fell over 6% in 2025 [2][3]. - The bullish sentiment in the gold market is supported by the absence of factors that typically end bull markets, according to Bank of America strategist Michael Widner [3]. Performance of Other Precious Metals - Silver also had a record year, gaining over 142%, while copper advanced by over 41%, marking the largest one-year gains since 2009 [8][9]. - Exchange-traded funds linked to these precious metals mirrored the gains seen in the underlying metals during 2025 [9]. Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third consecutive time in December 2025, indicating a potential resumption of treasury buying, which may support the precious metals market [15][16]. - Reserve management purchases are expected to amount to $40 billion in the first month, with the potential for elevated levels to alleviate near-term pressures in money markets [15]. Market Sentiment - MacroMavens president Stephanie Pomboy expressed surprise at the rapid rise in precious metal prices but anticipates further increases, attributing this to a shift towards hard assets over paper assets [12].

Market Performance - US stocks opened positively in 2026, with the Nasdaq Composite leading gains by over 1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 increased by more than 0.2% and 0.5% respectively [1] - The S&P 500 rose over 16% in 2025, and the Nasdaq Composite saw a more than 20% increase [2] Economic Outlook - The outlook for 2026 is optimistic, with all Wall Street forecasters predicting a stock rally for a fourth consecutive year [3] - However, potential risks include a possible falter in the AI boom, unexpected changes in the US economy, and uncertainties surrounding President Trump's tariff policies [3] Commodity Market - Gold and silver prices advanced at the start of 2026, building on their best annual performances since 1979, while aluminum prices surpassed $3,000 per ton for the first time since 2022 [3] Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current interest rates, although there are mixed expectations for the March meeting, with divisions within the central bank likely to persist [4] - President Trump is anticipated to appoint a new chair to replace Jerome Powell this month [4]