美国作家马克·吐温有句妙语：历史不会重演，但总会押韵。如今，随着欧洲各国承诺将国防开支提高 至国内生产总值（GDP）的5%，我们是否正在重演20世纪30年代的情景——当年西方列强正是依靠国 防支出走出大萧条？ 两次世界大战之间的时期，世界由西方列强（包括日本）主导，世界上其他大部分地区仍处于殖民统治 之下。第一次世界大战并未化解欧洲列强之间的旧怨，德国因战争赔款而愤懑不平，并因此引发了摧毁 德国社会的恶性通货膨胀。20世纪20年代的"咆哮年代"以1929年的股市崩盘告终，30年代则成为全球经 济停滞的年代。1934年，富兰克林·罗斯福总统以"新政"复兴美国经济的承诺当选。而在日本与德国， 军国主义背景下的右翼势力开始崛起。1934年，希特勒打着纳粹民族主义的旗号上台，宣称要重振德 国，并为一战的耻辱与失去的领土复仇。德国的军费开支从1933年占GDP的1%-2%，上升到1936年的 13%，到1945年几乎达到GDP的100%。日本的军费则从GDP占比的3%-4%，上升到1937年-1938年的 9%-10%。美国的反应较慢，1930年-1938年间军费平均开支仅占GDP的1%-2%，但到1945年已经迅速攀 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has limited valuation upside after two consecutive years of growth, with future index increases expected to come from earnings and the continuation of "anti-involution" policies, which may support profit growth due to a low base in the first half of the year [1] - Key sectors for investment include technology growth and high dividend strategies, focusing on domestic support policies under the backdrop of US-China competition, internet technology companies with independent growth, and high dividend low volatility sectors such as telecommunications, utilities, and banking [1] - The top five sectors for net inflow include new energy vehicles, auto parts, military industry, non-ferrous metals, and pharmaceuticals, while the top five concepts are state-owned enterprise reform, Belt and Road Initiative, energy storage, and free trade zones [1] Group 2 - The panel industry is expected to see a positive long-term outlook due to improved competition dynamics, with profit release logic shifting from price increases to value creation, driven by large-size demand, cost reduction through domestic production, and recovery of minority shareholder rights [3] - The aviation sector is facing capacity constraints due to low new aircraft introductions and maintenance issues, but there is a recovery in business travel demand, with expectations for profitability to return by 2025 [4] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, with mixed opinions among policymakers regarding the impact on inflation and the labor market, while the macro environment remains favorable for gold [6] Group 3 - The Shanghai Composite Index has been fluctuating around 3900 points for an extended period, indicating a transition phase rather than a clear bull or bear market, with a focus on domestic economic circulation and sustainable growth [10] - The communication equipment industry is seeing increased demand due to the launch of satellite IoT business trials and advancements in technology, although current valuations are high, requiring sustained industry performance [10]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a mixed performance after stabilizing, with a focus on dividend stocks showing significant gains while technology indices are retreating, indicating a return to defensive strategies as year-end approaches [1] Market Outlook - Concerns over a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan are leading to cautious market sentiment, with expectations of reduced trading activity as year-end approaches. However, the market has the potential for upward movement due to improved supply-demand conditions in the manufacturing sector by mid-2026, which could boost the earnings growth of A-share companies [2] - Key focus areas for December include the impact of the 14th Five-Year Plan on industries, event-driven dynamics in the technology sector, and price recovery driven by anti-involution trends, suggesting multiple sectors may act as catalysts for a sustained upward trend in the market [2] Hot Sectors - In December, sectors benefiting from dividends and price increases are expected to outperform, with short-term attention on banking, public utilities, coal, and non-ferrous metals. Consumer sectors may also gain traction due to event-driven factors [3] - Technology remains a primary focus for 2026, with particular attention on AI, lithium batteries, military industry, and robotics. The trend of AI hardware is solidifying, with increasing token usage indicating a peak in AI applications by 2026 [3] - The domestic production of robots is anticipated to grow, expanding from humanoid robots to quadrupedal and functional robots, creating opportunities in related sectors such as sensors and controllers [3] - The trend towards semiconductor localization continues, with a focus on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [3] - The military sector is expected to see a recovery in orders by 2026, with signs of bottoming out in the performance of various military sub-sectors [3] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is entering a recovery phase after nearly four years of adjustment, with positive net profit growth expected to continue into 2026 [3]

东方财富证券表示，中证A500指数——中国资产的脊梁。中证A500指数是A股ETF跟踪规模第二大的宽 基指数，行业与市值分布均衡、贴近全A市场，兼具分散风险与全面映射中国经济的优势。其在电子、 军工等新兴产业超配，自主可控成分股权重高，凸显新质生产力特征；同时依托互联互通与ESG筛选、 高境外营收占比，国际化属性突出。指数核心财务指标优异、估值具备吸引力，且历史业绩展现出高弹 性与抗跌性，是适配境内外中长期资金、分享经济升级红利、参与中国资产重估和震荡慢牛进程的优质 配置标的。 截至2025年12月19日 09:32，A500ETF南方(159352)高开上涨0.25%，成交2302.15万元。跟踪指数中证 A500指数上涨0.24%，成分股东方日升上涨11.48%，西部超导上涨5.55%，中国卫星上涨3.76%，沃尔 核材上涨3.50%，中国西电上涨3.22%。 拉长时间看，截至12月18日，A500ETF南方(159352)全天成交额达70.69亿元，近期交投活跃，已连续3 个交易日单日成交额超70亿元。从资金净流入方面来看，A500ETF南方(159352)近12天获得连续资金净 流入。 消息面上，今年 ...

A股三大指数呈分化格局,与前一日普涨反弹形成明显反差,沪指低开高走,收带长上影阳线, 受阻于3880-3900点压力区;深成指与创业板指跌破短期均线,呈弱势探底格局。 2025.12. 18 234 家上涨 涨跌停比 个股呈涨多跌少. 但赚钱效应收敛,盘面上,大 消费走强,零售方向领涨;商业航天概念股反复 活跃,军工股午后局部发力,医药商业题材表现 强势,银行板块震荡拉升。光伏、锂电池、算力 硬件、Al手机等题材调整。 两市成交额 万亿元 ▼8.59% 两市成交额显著缩量,资金观望情绪升温,全 天呈现"早盘缩量、午后小幅放量回落"态势, 无明显资金进场承接信号,存量博弈特征显 著,资金集中流向防御性板块。 资金情绪 19 Last / Lanch and M 上 证 指 数 3876.37 0月10日 1月16日 6月19日 日16日 8月28日 9月11日 11月6日 1月20日 0月24日 11月7日 1月21日 1月2日 2月27日 3月13日 3月27日 5月8日 5月22日 6月5日 7月3日 9月25日 12月5日 12月19日 1月30日 2月13日 1月10日 4月24日 8月14日 10月9 ...

班牙/分出京 2025 年 12 月 18 日 证券分析师 看好 相关研究 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 军工外延效应显著,继续关注 航天板块 -国防军工行业周报（2025 年第 51 周） 本期投资提示: 上周申万国防军工指数上涨 2.8%，中证军工龙头指数上涨 1.73%，同期上证综指下跌 0.34%，沪深 300 下跌 0.08%，创业板指上涨 2.74%，申万国防军工指数跑赢创业板 指、跑赢沪深 300、跑赢上证综指、跑赢军工龙头指数。1、从细分板块来看，上周国 防军工板块 2.8%的涨幅在 31 个申万一级行业涨跌幅排名第 2 位。2、从我们构建的军 工集团指数变化来看,上周中证民参军涨跌幅排名靠前,平均涨幅为 4.34%。3、从个 股表现来看，申万国防军工板块及民参军上市公司名单中，剔除停牌个股后，上周国防 军工板块涨幅排名前五的个股分别为航天动力（42.17%）、西部材料（40.98%）、赛 微电子（29.37%）、派克新材（20.54%）、航天工程（18.73%）。上周国防军工板块 涨幅排名后五的个股分别为*ST 奥维（ ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect reached a total of 183.4 billion, with significant activity in specific stocks and sectors, indicating a dynamic market environment [1]. Trading Volume - The total trading amount for the Shanghai Stock Connect was 83.09 billion, while the Shenzhen Stock Connect reached 100.31 billion [2]. Top Stocks by Trading Volume - In the Shanghai Stock Connect, the top stock by trading volume was Zhaoyi Innovation with 1.881 billion, followed by Industrial Fulian and Zijin Mining [3]. - In the Shenzhen Stock Connect, the leading stock was CATL with 3.542 billion, followed by Xinyi Technology and Zhongji Xuchuang [3]. Sector Fund Flow - The defense and military sector saw the highest net inflow of funds at 2.106 billion, while the banking sector followed with 743 million [5]. - The electronic sector experienced the largest net outflow of funds at -11.454 billion, indicating a significant sell-off [6]. ETF Trading Activity - The Chemical ETF (516020) saw a remarkable increase in trading volume, with a 166% rise compared to the previous trading day [8]. - The top ETF by trading volume was A500 ETF Huatai Baichuan with 12.4331 billion, followed by A500 ETF Fund [7]. Futures Positioning - In the four major futures contracts, both long and short positions were reduced, with a notable decrease in short positions for IM and IC contracts [9]. Market Activity - The market saw active participation from institutions, with Meinian Health receiving significant buying interest from institutions totaling 686.6 million, alongside a net inflow from the Shenzhen Stock Connect of 831.1 million [11]. - The commercial aerospace concept stock Shunhao Co. hit the daily limit, attracting 164 million from two leading funds [12].

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 相关研究 韩强 A0230518060003 hanqiang@swsresearch.com 武雨桐 A0230520090001 wuyt@swsresearch.com 穆少阳 A0230524070009 musy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 联系人 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 18 日 军工外延效应显著，继续关注商业 航天板块 看好 ——国防军工行业周报（2025 年第 51 周） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 上周申万国防军工指数上涨 2.8%，中证军工龙头指数上涨 1.73%，同期上证综指下跌 0.34%，沪深 300 下跌 0.08%，创业板指上涨 2.74%，申万国防军工指数跑赢创业板 指、跑赢沪深 300、跑赢上证综指、跑赢军工龙头指数。1、从细分板块来看，上周国 防军工板块 2.8%的涨幅在 31 个申万一级行业涨跌幅排名第 2 位。2、从我们构建的军 工集团指数变化来看，上周中证民参军涨跌 ...

相关机构表示，往后看，商业航天产业进入加速发展期，运力端实现重大突破。朱雀三号对标猎鹰九 号，明年国家院所运力将翻倍，民营火箭发射排期明确。12月底天龙三号一箭36星发射、2026年蓝箭 IPO、星网招标等事件催化密集。 军工ETF（512660）跟踪的是中证军工指数（399967），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及航空、航天、船 舶等军工领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，主要涵盖十大军工集团控股的上市公司，以反映中国军工 行业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。行业配置以航空装备和军工电子为主，充分体现军工行业的成长性 和景气度。 注：数据来源wind、截至2025.12.17，军工ETF规模为125.90亿，在同类12只产品中排名第一。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean government plans to incubate 10,000 startups in hard tech fields such as artificial intelligence (AI) over the next five years, aiming to make these companies a significant force in the country's economic development [1]. Group 1: Government Initiatives - The Ministry of SMEs and Startups, along with relevant departments, released a comprehensive strategy titled "Towards Becoming One of the Global Four Venture Capital Powerhouses" [1]. - The strategy includes multiple goals, such as creating 50 unicorns and "decacorns," and facilitating connections to a global venture capital market estimated at approximately 40 trillion Korean Won (about 1.904 trillion RMB) annually [1]. Group 2: Resource Allocation - To achieve these goals, the South Korean government plans to acquire around 50,000 graphics processing units (GPUs) by 2030 to establish a large AI computing power node and manage resource allocation effectively [1]. - Priority will be given to supporting venture capital and hard tech startups through adjustments and improvements to the policy framework related to strategic industries such as AI, biomedicine, military, energy, and advanced manufacturing [1].