行情数据显示，比特币于2024年12月31日收于93714.04美元。进入2025年后，在美国大选后政策预期、机构资金涌入及ETF获批等多重利好推动下，价格迅 速攀升。10月6日，比特币创下126198美元的历史新高，较年初低点上涨逾31%。然而，仅四天后，美国总统特朗普意外发表关于加征关税的言论，引发全 球金融市场剧烈波动，风险资产集体回调，比特币亦由此开启下行通道。 比特币价格在11月16日盘中一度跌破93714美元，正式失守2024年末收盘价水平。这一关键价位的失守意味着自2025年年初以来比特币曾实现的超过30%的 累计涨幅已被完全抹去。11月17日截至发稿前，比特币价格一度跌至93000美元附近。截至发稿前，在95000美元附近震荡，但市场情绪持续低迷，技术面与 资金面均显疲态。 从126198美元高点回落至今，比特币累计跌幅已超过25%，不仅回吐年内全部涨幅，还短暂跌破上年年底收盘位，进入技术性熊市区间。 机构参与度的减弱成为本轮下跌的核心驱动力之一。彭博数据显示，2025年全年，美国比特币现货ETF累计吸引资金流入超过250亿美元，推动相关产品总 资产管理规模升至约1690亿美元。这些资金曾被视 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has experienced significant volatility, reaching a peak of $126,251 on October 6, only to drop below $94,000 by November 17, erasing all gains for the year due to tightening dollar liquidity and changing market conditions [1][2][3] Market Dynamics - The recent decline in Bitcoin's price is attributed to a combination of macro liquidity tightening, decreased market risk appetite, and cyclical factors within the cryptocurrency industry [2][3] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. fiscal and monetary policy has led to a cautious trading environment, affecting both risk and safe-haven assets [3][4] Institutional Involvement - Institutional investors have been a key support for Bitcoin's price, but recent outflows indicate a potential shift as macro liquidity tightens and political uncertainties rise [5][6] - The reliance on institutional capital highlights the fragility of Bitcoin's narrative as a hedge against inflation, especially given its high volatility compared to traditional assets like gold [6][7] Regulatory Environment - The evolving regulatory landscape and the diminishing expectations of supportive policies from the Trump administration have contributed to market participants' cautious outlook [3][4] - The need for a robust regulatory framework and the maturation of ETF channels are seen as essential for Bitcoin's long-term viability [6][7] Correlation with Other Assets - The simultaneous decline of Bitcoin and gold suggests a breakdown of traditional safe-haven logic, driven by liquidity constraints and a strong dollar [8][9] - The current market environment indicates a deeper liquidity pressure test, where all asset classes are experiencing increased correlation and simultaneous declines [10]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has experienced a significant price drop after reaching a peak of over $126,000 in October, erasing all gains for 2025, despite a year that was expected to solidify its authority in the market [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Wall Street has entered the cryptocurrency space, with exchange-traded funds (ETFs) bringing cryptocurrencies into mainstream investment portfolios, and the Trump administration fully embracing cryptocurrencies [2] - Despite these developments, Bitcoin's total market capitalization has plummeted by approximately $600 billion from its October peak, indicating a rapid loss of market confidence without clear reasons [2] - The cryptocurrency market is characterized by volatility, but the current situation is marked by a swift decline in confidence among traders, leading to anxiety and a search for buyers [2] Group 2: Historical Patterns and Future Outlook - Bitcoin's supply increase is designed to halve approximately every four years, with the next halving event expected in April 2024, which historically has led to speculative booms followed by painful crashes [2] - The recent peak in Bitcoin prices in October aligns with historical patterns, but the influence of financially strong buyers raises questions about whether past trends will repeat [2] - Retail sentiment in the cryptocurrency market is currently very poor, with concerns about a repeat of the four-year cycle leading to early withdrawals from the market [3]

Market Overview - Global stock markets and bond yields remain strong, with the upcoming Nvidia earnings report expected to influence market direction [2][3] - US stock index futures show slight gains, with the Dow futures up 0.12%, S&P 500 futures up 0.33%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.58% [3] - European markets are cautiously rising after a volatile week, with the STOXX 600 index up 0.1% [3] Nvidia's Earnings Report - Nvidia is viewed as a "litmus test" for the tech sector, having seen its stock price surge approximately 1000% since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022 [4] - The company became the first globally to surpass a market capitalization of $5 trillion last month, with a year-to-date increase of over 40% [4] Economic Data and Federal Reserve Outlook - The delayed US economic data, including the September non-farm payroll report, is expected to confirm a slowdown in the labor market [6] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making may be complicated by the data delays, with some officials expressing skepticism about further rate cuts [6] - Market expectations for a December rate cut have dropped below 50%, impacting high-valuation tech stocks [3][6] Long-term Investment Sentiment - Wall Street strategists maintain a positive long-term outlook for AI investments, viewing recent volatility as profit-taking rather than a fundamental shift [7] - Morgan Stanley's chief US equity strategist predicts a 16% increase in the S&P 500 over the next year, supported by strong corporate earnings [9][11]

智通财经APP获悉，加密货币市场抛售潮毫无缓和迹象，市值最小、风险最高的代币正首当其冲。追踪 100种数字资产中50种最小市值币种的MarketVector数字资产100小盘指数，于上周日跌至2020年以来的 最低水平。 这一低点出现之际，最大加密货币比特币抹去了今年以来30%的涨幅，而就在几周前，它才刚刚创下历 史新高。被视为高风险投机情绪晴雨表的"山寨币"，在2025年的表现远远落后于其他市值更大的币种。 在以往的加密货币牛市中，受益于交易员对高风险、高回报押注的追捧，小盘代币指数往往跑赢大盘代 币指数。但去年美国批准比特币和以太币交易所交易产品(ETP)后，这一趋势发生逆转，这类产品成为 机构资金流的焦点。 过去五年间，加密货币小盘指数下跌近8%，而大盘指数飙升约380%，凸显出该板块已大幅失宠。 澳大利亚对冲基金Apollo Crypto的投资组合经理普拉蒂克·卡拉表示，散户交易员正从以往的市场周期 中吸取教训。"潮水涨起并非所有船只都能扬帆——只有优质资产才能受益，"他补充道。 整个加密货币市场仍未从10月10日的崩盘事件中恢复。该事件引发了约190亿美元的清算，所有代币的 总市值蒸发超过1万亿美元 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin's price has dropped below $93,714, erasing over 30% of its annual gains earlier this year, following a record high of $126,251 on October 6, triggered by market turmoil after comments from President Trump [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The decline in Bitcoin's price is attributed to reduced institutional participation, with over $25 billion flowing into Bitcoin ETFs this year, raising total assets under management to approximately $169 billion [1]. - The exit of large buyers, including ETF allocators and corporate finance departments, has weakened the narrative of Bitcoin as a "hedging asset" [1]. - The overall market is in a risk-off mode, with cryptocurrencies reacting first to macroeconomic changes, as noted by Bitwise Asset Management's CIO [3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - There is a prevailing negative sentiment among retail investors in the cryptocurrency market, leading many to exit early to avoid significant losses [5]. - This pessimism is particularly pronounced in the altcoin market, with a MarketVector index tracking the bottom 50 of the top 100 digital assets down approximately 60% this year [6][7]. - The lack of natural bullish catalysts has led to skepticism regarding capital deployment in the market [8].

Core Viewpoint - U.S. cryptocurrency-related stocks experienced a pre-market rise, indicating positive market sentiment towards the sector [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - IREN Ltd saw a pre-market increase of 4.70% [2] - Bitdeer Technologies rose by 4.18% [2] - HIVE Digital Technologies increased by 3.32% [2] - 嘉楠科技 (Canaan Inc.) gained 3.13% [2] - Other notable increases include Faraday Future Intelligent (2.97%), DeFi Development (2.94%), and Cipher Mining (2.79%) [2]. Group 2: Overall Market Sentiment - The overall trend in the cryptocurrency sector appears to be bullish, with multiple companies showing significant pre-market gains [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin's price has sharply declined after reaching a historical high in October, erasing all gains for 2025 and dropping below $93,714, which is lower than its closing price at the end of 2024, indicating a loss of over 30% in annual gains [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Bitcoin's total market capitalization has evaporated by approximately $600 billion compared to its peak in October, leading to a rapid and unexpected market downturn [1] - The current decline is characterized by a swift evaporation of market confidence, occurring in a year that was expected to solidify Bitcoin's legitimacy with the approval of spot ETFs and support from the Trump administration [1] - Market participants are reverting to familiar models, such as the four-year "halving" cycle, which historically leads to speculative booms followed by painful downturns [2] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Concerns about a potential repeat of the four-year cycle are causing investors to preemptively withdraw from the market to avoid significant losses [4] - The recent downturn reflects market fatigue and disappointment, with retail investors suffering losses while chasing high-priced crypto stocks [5] - Analysts note that Bitcoin's trading behavior is increasingly influenced by macroeconomic factors and liquidity dynamics rather than predictable supply shocks [5] Group 3: Institutional Investment Trends - Institutional inflows into Bitcoin have stagnated, with some long-term holders cashing out, indicating a loss of market premium for holding Bitcoin [6] - The enthusiasm among institutional investors has cooled, as even the most steadfast supporters are no longer receiving market rewards for their holdings [6] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Bitcoin faces macroeconomic headwinds and competition from emerging speculative assets like AI, stablecoins, and prediction markets, which are gaining traction [8] - Despite a well-functioning market infrastructure, recent price drops have been a significant setback for investors who anticipated Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by year-end [8] - Analysts suggest that the current market dynamics may disrupt traditional cycles, with global liquidity potentially returning following the resolution of the U.S. government shutdown [8]

Japan’s 2026 overhaul marks a rare moment in global crypto regulation. | Credit: Lara Jameson via Pexels. Key Takeaways Japan will roll out its most sweeping crypto regulatory overhaul in April 2026. The reforms reclassify 105 crypto tokens, including Bitcoin and Ethereum. Japan’s notoriously steep 55% crypto tax rate will drop to a flat 20% for qualifying assets. Japan is preparing to implement the most significant update to its crypto rulebook in more than five years. The new rulebook marks a m ...

一直享有华尔街资本、政治背书与机构资金三大引擎同时点火，近来比特币却意外熄火了。 智通财经APP注意到，在10月份突破12.6万美元后，比特币大幅下跌，一度抹平了2025年的全部涨幅， 直至周一亚洲早盘才趋于稳定。在原本被认为将巩固比特币合法性的这一年，其价格却从历史高点大幅 回落。 然而市场还是退缩了——速度快、力度大、且无明显诱因。数据显示，比特币总市值已从10月份的高点 暴跌了约6000亿美元。波动在加密货币市场本属常态。但这一次的不同之处在于信念消散的速度之快， 以及能够站得住脚的解释少之又少。 交易大厅和社交媒体上，焦虑情绪正在蔓延。交易员们反复查看旧的图表，重新拾起熟悉的理论，急切 地寻找买家。由于没有关于比特币行为模式的传统华尔街范本——没有稳定的相关性，没有经过验证的 风险框架——一些人便回归到他们最熟悉的模式：四年减半周期。 减半事件是指，按照设计，大约每四年比特币的供应增长会减半。从历史上看，这会刺激投机性繁荣， 随后是痛苦的崩盘，并且由于矿工(运营支撑网络的强大计算机的人)往往会在价格恶化时抛售持仓，这 种繁荣与崩盘常常存在滞后性。 本周期的减半发生在2024年4月。随后价格在今年10月 ...