作者：金融业资深人士杨峻 当前，全球地缘冲突频发、科技突飞猛进，原先固若金汤的世界似乎正处于巨大的变革中。而稳定币的 崛起，更是加剧了这种不确定性。既有可能重构国际金融格局，也有可能成为大国博弈的新战场。秩序 重建的背景下，真正的赢家，必将属于那些愿意拥抱创新，但仍然立足合规经营，在效率与稳定之间找 到平衡的先行者。 美国积极推动稳定币立法的深层逻辑在于构建"美元-稳定币-美债"的闭环。当前，USDT发行方持有超 800亿美债，位列全球第七大美债持有者。在高通胀国家（如阿根廷、土耳其），稳定币正演变为新 型"美元化"形式，逐步替代当地货币。可以预计，未来随着稳定币的规模逐渐扩大，美债也会迎来源源 不断的买家。这种机制既巩固了美元地位，又为美国财政赤字提供了低成本融资渠道，形成美元霸权在 加密货币市场的延伸。 为避免美元稳定币垄断加密货币市场，香港近期通过的《稳定币条例草案》，成为全球首个对法币稳定 币实施全面监管的司法管辖区。其"价值锚定监管"原则（无论发行地在哪，只要锚定港元即受监管）扩 展了监管辐射范围，严格的牌照制度（如2500万港元最低资本要求、100%储备资产支撑）和反洗钱机 制，也提升了投资者保护 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of stablecoins, particularly USDT and USDC, as significant players in the global financial system, potentially acting as a "shadow Federal Reserve" that influences global interest rates and maintains the dollar's dominance [1][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Circle Internet Group, the issuer of USDC, went public on June 5, raising $1.1 billion with an initial share price of $31, which surged by 168% on the first day. However, a significant sell-off by executives led to an 8% drop in stock price shortly after [2]. - Major payment companies like Visa and Mastercard are accelerating their integration of stablecoin settlements, while Walmart is testing enterprise stablecoins to validate their commercial viability [3]. Group 2: Impact on Financial Markets - Stablecoins are becoming crucial players in the U.S. Treasury market, with projections indicating that they will purchase $40 billion in short-term U.S. Treasuries in 2024, comparable to large money market funds [6]. - The influx of $3.5 billion in stablecoins can lead to a decrease in 3-month U.S. Treasury yields by 2-2.5 basis points, while an equivalent outflow can increase yields by 6-8 basis points [6]. Group 3: Regulatory and Economic Implications - The concentration of stablecoin reserves poses risks, such as potential runs on the currency, which could significantly impact U.S. Treasury yields and overall market stability [7]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised concerns that unregulated stablecoins could bypass capital flow controls and complicate central banks' macroeconomic management [11]. Group 4: Global Trends and Future Outlook - The global stablecoin market is projected to exceed $250 billion, with USDT and USDC accounting for over 85% of this market, indicating a shift from being mere digital dollar substitutes to becoming on-chain safe-haven and settlement assets [10]. - The U.S. government's new cryptocurrency policy framework aims to support innovation while maintaining the dominance of U.S. dollar stablecoins and issuers [12]. - Countries like the UK, Australia, and South Korea are moving towards developing stablecoin regulations, indicating a shift from whether to develop stablecoins to how to do so [13].

Core Insights - Tron is planning to go public through a reverse merger with SRM Entertainment, following the suspension of investigations by U.S. regulators [2][7] - The announcement has led to significant price increases for both Tron’s TRX token and SRM’s stock, with TRX reaching $0.295 and SRM experiencing a peak increase of 526.21% [2][5] Company Overview - Tron, founded by Justin Sun in September 2017, is a decentralized blockchain platform that supports smart contracts and decentralized applications, with over 313 million global user accounts and a total transaction count exceeding 10.6 billion as of June 2025 [3] - Tron is the largest blockchain network for the stablecoin USDT, accounting for over 50% of its global supply, with a total stablecoin market value of $79.373 billion on the platform [3] SRM Entertainment Actions - SRM has taken several steps in response to the merger rumors, including appointing Justin Sun as a company advisor, planning to rebrand as Tron Inc., and signing a $100 million equity financing agreement [5][6] - The company has also seen changes in its board, with three members resigning and new appointments made, including Weike Sun as chairman [5] Regulatory Context - The merger comes after a period of legal scrutiny for Justin Sun and Tron, with the SEC previously filing a lawsuit against them for alleged securities violations [7] - The recent regulatory environment has shifted favorably for crypto projects, coinciding with the political landscape changes in the U.S. [7][8] Trump Family Involvement - Justin Sun has established a close relationship with the Trump family, being involved in projects associated with them and receiving public endorsements from Eric Trump [8][9] - The merger transaction is reportedly being facilitated by Dominari Securities, linked to members of the Trump family [8]

Core Insights - The emergence of stablecoins, particularly USDC, is reshaping the global financial ecosystem, with Circle's recent IPO highlighting the growing significance of digital currencies [2][3] - Stablecoins are increasingly being recognized as "shadow central banks," influencing U.S. Treasury yields and the broader financial market [3][4] Company Developments - Circle Internet Group went public on June 5, raising $1.1 billion with an initial share price of $31, which surged by 168% on the first day [2] - Following the IPO, Circle executives sold 3.55 million shares valued at approximately $104 million, leading to an over 8% decline in the stock price shortly after [2] Industry Trends - Major payment organizations like Visa and Mastercard are integrating stablecoin settlements, while companies like Walmart are testing enterprise stablecoins for commercial viability [2] - The global stablecoin market surpassed $250 billion by May 2025, with USDT and USDC accounting for over 85% of the market share [5] Regulatory Landscape - The U.S. Senate is set to vote on the "GENIUS Act," which aims to guide and establish a national framework for stablecoin innovation [2][6] - Regulatory concerns are rising as stablecoins may bypass capital flow controls and complicate central banks' macroeconomic management [6][7] Economic Implications - Stablecoins are becoming significant players in the U.S. Treasury market, with projections indicating they could purchase $40 billion in short-term U.S. Treasuries in 2024 [3] - The concentration of stablecoin reserves poses potential risks, such as liquidity crises, which could lead to significant fluctuations in Treasury yields [4][5] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the global capital market may enter a phase of asset trust reconstruction, potentially leading to liquidity tightening and increased risk premiums [5] - The evolving landscape of stablecoins indicates a shift towards a new monetary framework, with countries worldwide considering how to develop their stablecoin policies [6][7]

Group 1: Stablecoin Legislation - The proposed stablecoin legislation faces criticism from Senator Elizabeth Warren for not addressing financial interests related to Trump and potentially allowing tech giants like Amazon and Meta to issue their own stablecoins [1] - If passed, the legislation could lead to significant growth in stablecoin-related financial products and services, benefiting companies like Circle (issuer of USDC) and Tether (issuer of USDT), while also attracting new market competitors, particularly large tech firms [1] Group 2: Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) Market - The brain-computer interface (BCI) technology is emerging as a significant market opportunity, contrasting with the stagnation in the innovative drug sector, with the global BCI market size growing from $1.2 billion in 2019 to $1.98 billion in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.8% [1] - BCI technology shows immense potential in the medical field, particularly for patients with neurological disorders (e.g., Parkinson's and Alzheimer's) and individuals with disabilities, enabling paralyzed patients to control external devices through brain signals [1] - Recent clinical trials in China mark a significant advancement in BCI, with teams from the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Fudan University successfully conducting the first invasive BCI clinical trial, positioning China as a global leader in this field [1] - The 2023 "Brain-Computer Interface Innovation Development Plan" emphasizes medical rehabilitation as a primary focus, providing policy support for the clinical application of this technology [1] - With its vast market prospects, technological innovation, and policy backing, BCI is poised to become a new frontier in the pharmaceutical and technology industries, presenting fresh investment opportunities [1] Group 3: China's Economic Performance - China's industrial output and consumer spending show strong growth, with industrial value-added output increasing by 5.8% year-on-year and retail sales of consumer goods rising by 6.4% [2] - The manufacturing sector, particularly equipment manufacturing, is recovering robustly, with a 9.0% year-on-year increase in value-added output, indicating its role as a core driver of industrial growth [2] - The automotive sector benefits from policy support, with vehicle production increasing by 11.3% due to consumer demand stimulated by trade-in and subsidy policies [2] - Emerging products in digital transformation, such as smart devices, industrial robots, and 3D printing, are experiencing rapid production growth, supporting high-quality development in manufacturing [2] Group 4: Energy Sector Dynamics - Recent conflicts between Israel and Iran have led to a temporary rebound in international oil prices, with Brent crude oil prices nearing levels prior to the April 2 "Liberation Day tariff" announcement [3] - Energy stocks, particularly oil service stocks, have not performed well, indicating that the market views the current conflict as a short-term disruption without altering the overall bearish outlook on the oil market [3] - The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE.US) has declined by 7% since April 2, reflecting a lack of confidence in the sustainability of the oil price rebound [3] Group 5: Meme Coin Surge - The LABUBU brand, a core IP of Pop Mart, has gained significant global popularity, leading to a surge in its associated meme coin, LABUBU coin [4] - After a price drop at the end of 2024, LABUBU coin experienced a resurgence in May 2025, driven by the release of a new wave of LABUBU toys [4] - LABUBU coin is not officially issued by Pop Mart but is developed by a community-driven group, categorizing it as a typical meme coin [4] - Mainstream exchanges are cautious about listing meme coins, focusing on project transparency, governance mechanisms, and market risks to protect user assets [4]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all down, with Dow futures down 0.60%, S&P 500 futures down 0.58%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.62% [1] - European indices also show declines, with Germany's DAX down 1.24%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.46%, France's CAC40 down 1.07%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 1.31% [2][3] - WTI crude oil increased by 1.74% to $71.47 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose by 1.78% to $74.53 per barrel [3][4] Retail Sales and Economic Indicators - US retail sales for May are expected to decline significantly, with a projected month-over-month decrease of 0.7%, contrasting with a slight increase of 0.1% in April [5] - Economists predict that the decline may reach 1%, marking the largest monthly drop since March 2023 [5] Federal Reserve and Inflation - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach due to concerns over tariffs affecting inflation expectations, despite recent improvements in inflation data [6] - The decision on whether to cut interest rates will depend on how officials assess the risks related to inflation expectations [6] Clean Energy Sector - A Republican Senate bill proposes to terminate tax credits for wind and solar energy earlier than expected, negatively impacting the solar sector [7][12] - Following the announcement, solar stocks experienced significant declines, with Sunrun down 32%, SolarEdge down 25%, and Enphase down 18% [12] Household Investment Trends - Goldman Sachs reports that US households are expected to directly purchase $425 billion in US stocks this year, driven by retirement savings [8] - The average stock allocation in retirement accounts has increased from 66% in 2013 to 71% in 2022, with younger investors showing even higher allocations [8] Currency and Economic Outlook - UBS warns of a potential decline in the US dollar due to economic slowdown and rising fiscal deficits, predicting a nearly 10% drop in the dollar index by 2025 [9] - The report highlights concerns over the traditional role of the dollar as a safe-haven asset [9] Cryptocurrency Regulation - The US Senate is set to vote on the GENIUS Act, which aims to regulate stablecoins, potentially enhancing the legitimacy of the cryptocurrency industry [10] Corporate Developments - American Express announced a significant upgrade to its Platinum Card, marking the largest investment in card renewal in over 40 years [14] - SoftBank raised approximately $4.8 billion by selling T-Mobile shares to fund its AI initiatives [14] - MicroStrategy has purchased $1.05 billion in Bitcoin using preferred stock, raising concerns about its funding strategy [13][15]

这些都是典型的"风险开启"环境信号。以色列攻击伊朗核设施长期以来被视为可能严重恶化全球风险环境的"终极事件"，然而，油价不仅在周一 下跌，更是远低于1月份的峰值。 市场平静或许有其道理。来自伦敦Longview Economics的Harry Colvin指出，中东冲突影响市场和全球经济主要通过油价传导，而以色列选择了一 个"好"时机。石油库存正在上升，OPEC+国家一直试图限制供应，许多国家乐于找到不执行限产的借口。 德意志银行的Jim Reid提供了一个令人安心的统计：历史上，标普500指数在地缘政治冲击后的三周内通常下跌约6%，但在随后三周内完全恢 复。该行研究人员列出的自1939年以来32起政治事件显示，触底中位数为16个交易日，此后17天完全收复失地。 本周一的交易数据讲述了一个令人震惊的故事。就在以色列和伊朗两国持续相互攻击之际，黄金价格下跌，美债收益率上升，股市波动率暴跌。 股票相对于长期债券的表现达到了特朗普就职日以来的最强水平。 尽管历史表明地缘政治冲击后股市能迅速恢复，但专家警告市场自满是危险的，存在伊朗核突破等尾部风险。值得注意的是，比特币在此次危机 中表现出避险资产特质，其在动荡中表现 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美国参议院将于当地时间6月17日(周二)对《GENIUS法案》进行最终表决。这项旨 在对稳定币进行监管的法案预计将被通过，加密行业也希望借该法案增强其合法性。 上周三，美国参议院以68票对30票通过对《GENIUS法案》修正案的程序性动议，扫清了该法案面临的 程序性障碍。该稳定币法案将为用于支付的美元挂钩代币建立监管规则。立法核心条款要求稳定币发行 机构必须持有100%美元等价资产储备，包括短期美债或受监管的类现金资产。支持者认为，这将推动 与美元挂钩的稳定币成为主流支付工具。美国财政部长贝森特上周表示，该法案可能帮助美国稳定币市 场在2028年底突破2万亿美元。 不过，大多数民主党人仍反对该法案。他们指出，该法案几乎没有处理美国总统特朗普在加密货币领域 的个人财务利益问题。法案中包含一个条款，禁止国会议员及其家属从稳定币中牟利，但该禁令不适用 于总统及其家属。 马萨诸塞州民主党参议员Elizabeth Warren直言不讳地警告称，该法案为特朗普的腐败行为"开辟了一条 高速通道"。她还警告称，法案可能允许像亚马逊(AMZN.US)和Meta(META.US)这样的大型科技公司推 出自己的 ...

据英国《金融时报》6月16日报道，孙宇晨的加密平台波场（Tron）已与纳斯达克上市公司SRM Entertainment达成反向并购协议。新实体计划注入价值2.1亿美元的代币资产，并更名为"Tron Inc."。该 交易发生在美国证券交易委员会（ SEC）暂停对孙宇晨涉嫌市场操纵诉讼的关键时期，且由特朗普家 族密切关联的Dominari证券公司操盘。 本次借壳上市的操盘方Dominari证券公司的总部就位于特朗普大厦，且美国总统特朗普长子小唐纳德 （Donald Trump Jr.）与次子埃里克（Eric Trump）已于今年2月加入其母公司Dominari Holdings顾问委员 会，消息公布前该公司股价580%的异常涨幅曾引发监管关注。知情人士还透露，埃里克预计将在新成 立的"Tron Inc"中担任重要职务。 而SRM Entertainment作为壳公司，在并购消息刺激下股价在隔夜一度飙升647%。 高调参加完特朗普的币圈晚宴后，加密富豪孙宇晨创立的数字资产平台波场（Tron）要借壳上市了，壳 公司隔夜暴涨647%。耐人寻味的是，这背后的操盘方是和特朗普的儿子们关系密切的投行。 孙宇晨长期被视为加密 ...

Group 1 - Amazon Web Services (AWS) will collaborate with SK Group to build the largest AI data center in South Korea, with a capacity of 103 megawatts and equipped with 60,000 GPUs, marking the highest GPU deployment in any data center in the country [2] - Circle's co-founder and CEO Jeremy Allaire predicts that the stablecoin market is approaching its "iPhone moment," suggesting that global developers will soon recognize the potential of "programmable digital dollars," which could lead to significant changes in the market [3] - OpenAI is considering antitrust claims against Microsoft due to stalled cooperation talks, which could threaten their six-year partnership and reflects the complexities in tech collaborations within the rapidly evolving AI sector [4] Group 2 - Meta Platforms is increasing its investment in AI, with a recent $14.3 billion investment in Scale AI, and analysts expect generative AI tools to drive a 1% to 2% annual increase in Meta's advertising revenue over the next few years, potentially reaching 4% by the end of 2030 [5] - NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang criticized Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's claim that 50% of entry-level jobs could be replaced by AI, calling it alarmist and reflecting differing views on the impact of AI on the job market [6]