2025 年 5 月 15 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】美国通胀继续回落，关税冲击尚待显现——2025 年 4 月美国 CPI 数据点评 4 月美国通胀低于预期，较上月继续回落。其中，家具家电、医疗保健用品、娱乐用 品价格环比小幅上涨，而权重较高的服装、二手车价格环比下跌，指向关税影响尚待 进一步显现。随着中美互降关税，美国通胀风险已明显弱化，当前关税税率上调大致 带动 1.0 个百分点的通胀上行。关税下调也意味着美国衰退风险随之下降，美联储更 有耐心继续等待，以观察经济的实质性变化，短期内降息紧迫性不强。 【债券】预判 5 月信贷明显好于 4 月——2025 年 5 月 14 日利率债观察 在美国大幅加征关税的不利条件下，4 月份经调整后的信贷同比增速（注：而且是保 守估计的）依然能保持在 8%左右。5 月份出台了大量的支持性政策，美大幅降低了 对华商品的进口税率。显然，5 月份信贷增长情况很可能明显好于 4 月。 行业研究 | | 外汇市场 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 中间价 | 涨跌 | | 美元兑人民币 | 7.1956 | -0.05 | | 欧 ...

Core Insights - JD's Q1 2025 revenue reached 301.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, marking the highest quarterly growth rate in three years, with service revenue at 58.8 billion yuan, up 14.0% year-on-year [2][10] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 12.8 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 43.4% [2][10] - The retail revenue of JD grew by 16.3% year-on-year to 263.8 billion yuan, driven by strong user growth and supply chain optimization [2][10] Revenue and Profitability - The group achieved a gross margin of 15.9%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, and a fulfillment gross margin of 9.3%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [3][10] - JD's retail operating profit margin improved by 0.8 percentage points to 4.9% [3][10] - The company continues to enhance its operational efficiency through its supply chain infrastructure and smart integration of business ecosystems [3][10] Business Development - JD's food delivery service surpassed 10 million daily orders as of April 22, 2025, indicating significant progress in this segment [3][10] - The company has repurchased 1.5 billion USD worth of shares, amounting to approximately 2.8% of its outstanding shares as of December 31, 2024 [3][10] - The expansion of the platform into new markets, including Hong Kong and international regions, is ongoing, with a focus on maintaining high growth rates in various product categories [10] Policy and Market Environment - The April Politburo meeting emphasized stabilizing employment and the economy, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption [4][11] - The government is expected to introduce flexible policies to address uncertainties in tariffs and enhance financial support for various sectors [11] - The focus on long-term structural reforms and support for consumer spending is anticipated to drive economic growth in the coming quarters [11]

Core Viewpoint - The "2025 First Good Life Expo" will be held from June 27 to 29, 2025, in Beijing, transforming from the previous "2025 First Export to Domestic Sales Commodity Expo" to focus on enhancing consumer experiences and promoting the globalization of Chinese brands [2]. Group 1: Event Overview - The expo aims to integrate the entire supply chain, including production, supply, sales, and services, to create a platform that enhances consumer spending and supports the transition of "Chinese manufacturing" to a global brand strategy [2]. - The event is co-hosted by major e-commerce platforms such as Alibaba, JD.com, Pinduoduo, and Douyin E-commerce, leveraging their resources to break industry barriers and gather diverse forces [2]. Group 2: Unique Features - The expo will feature a 15,000 square meter exhibition area designed for experiential consumption, combining daily shopping, digital entertainment, and healthy living [3]. - A direct connection platform will be established for brands to reach consumers, integrating online and offline experiences through social live streaming and collaboration with major e-commerce platforms [3]. - A dedicated procurement area will facilitate B2B interactions, bringing together e-commerce platforms, supermarkets, and brand buyers to enhance transaction effectiveness [3]. - The marketing strategy will focus on content creation, leveraging media and influencers to generate consumer engagement and discussions around new consumption trends [3]. - Collaboration with government departments and industry associations will create a new consumption display platform, maximizing policy and market synergies [3]. Group 3: Strategic Goals - The expo aims to set a benchmark for both industry and consumer upgrades, facilitating the transition from a manufacturing powerhouse to a brand-driven economy [3]. - The four-dimensional empowerment strategy includes products, brands, channels, and services to accelerate high-quality development in the domestic market [3].

Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions, effective May 15, which is expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market [2] - The reserve requirement ratio for auto finance companies and financial leasing companies was reduced from 5% to 0%, enhancing their credit supply capabilities [2] Trade Relations - The U.S. has rescinded a total of 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods and modified a 34% tariff, with 24% of it suspended for 90 days, while retaining 10% [3][4] - In response to the U.S. tariff adjustments, China has also suspended related countermeasures, including 91% of its retaliatory tariffs [10] E-commerce and Export - Following the adjustment of U.S.-China tariff policies, many cross-border e-commerce companies quickly lowered their product prices, leading to a surge in orders [5] - A Shenzhen-based company reported a significant increase in orders from previously disconnected U.S. clients, prompting them to expedite production and shipping [5] Investment Trends - Bridgewater Associates significantly increased its holdings in Alibaba by over 5.4 million shares, marking a 21-fold increase, and also initiated positions in JD.com and a gold ETF [6] - The fund reduced its stake in major holdings like the S&P 500 ETF and Nvidia, indicating a strategic shift in investment focus [6] Export Controls - The Ministry of Commerce announced a temporary suspension of export control measures on 28 U.S. entities for 90 days, allowing for potential exports of dual-use items [7] - The government emphasized the importance of controlling the export of strategic minerals to safeguard national security [8][9] Real Estate and Loans - The central bank reported a decline in the proportion of residential loans from 37% to approximately 32% over the past five years, indicating a more rational approach to housing investment by residents [15] - The manufacturing sector's share of medium to long-term loans increased from 5.1% to about 9.3%, while the real estate and construction sectors saw a decrease from 15.9% to 13% [15] Financial Support - Shenzhen Metro Group has provided nearly 12 billion yuan in direct loans to Vanke this year, with the latest loan amounting to 1.55 billion yuan [24]

Group 1 - The total e-commerce transaction volume in the province for Q1 reached 324.16 billion yuan, indicating a stable overall operational trend [1] - Service-related transactions grew rapidly, with a transaction volume of 89.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.6% [1] - Online retail sales amounted to 119.45 billion yuan, up 14.7% year-on-year, surpassing the overall retail sales growth rate by 7.7 percentage points [1] Group 2 - The number of e-commerce platforms in the province reached 80, with a total transaction volume of 77.01 billion yuan [1] - Zhengzhou had the highest number of e-commerce platforms at 30, contributing 56.76 billion yuan, which is 73.7% of the total e-commerce platform transaction volume [1] - Cross-border e-commerce transactions showed steady growth, with a total import and export transaction volume of 63.21 billion yuan, including 48.01 billion yuan in exports [1] Group 3 - The province's e-commerce development is supported by accelerated network construction, improved inland shipping networks, and the normal operation of China-Europe freight trains [2] - Future e-commerce growth is expected to stimulate consumption and enhance market vitality through deeper integration with the real economy and full exploitation of data value [2]

Core Viewpoint - Amazon plans to lay off approximately 100 employees in its devices and services division [1] Group 1 - The layoffs are part of a broader strategy to streamline operations within the company [1] - This decision reflects ongoing adjustments in response to market conditions and operational efficiency [1]

智通财经5月15日电，亚马逊计划在设备和服务部门裁员约100人。 ...

亚马逊计划在设备和服务部门裁员约100人。 ...

京东 20240514 摘要 • 京东一季度产品收入同比增长 16%，其中电子和家电产品收入增长 17%，综合商品收入增长 15%，超市类别连续五个季度实现两位数增长， 反映了国内消费潜力及京东在供应链和用户市场份额方面的优势。 • 京东一季度活跃客户人数同比实现两位数增长，GDB（Gross Domestic Buying）录得两位数的同比增幅，用户购物频率增加，反映了公司核心零 售业务的强劲势头及不断提升的用户体验。 • 京东外卖配送业务快速拓展，订单量接近 2000 万单，与核心零售业务产 生协同效应，有助于推动整体生态系统未来几年的整体增长和效率提升， 但需关注投资回报率。 • 京东启动规模达 2000 亿人民币的出口转内销计划，与出口制造商合作拓 展内销市场，并大力推动人工智能和自动化技术应用，以提高需求、供给 及履约各环节效率。 • 京东物流一季度收入同比增长 11%，内部和外部收入都保持了两位数的增 长势头，同时主动投资于升级履约能力和用户体验，并提高工作流程自动 化水平。 Q&A 京东集团在 2025 年第一季度的财务表现如何？ 2025 年第一季度，京东集团的总收入同比增长 16%，达到 3 ...

步入2025年，美国经济正处于复杂多变的十字路口，一系列关键指标和潜在因素相互交织，描绘出一幅充满韧性却也面临诸多挑战的经济图景。深入剖析美 国经济现状，能为洞察全球经济走向提供关键视角。 增长态势：稳健中显露分化 近年来，美国经济增长展现出一定韧性。2024年第三季度，实际国内生产总值（GDP）年化增长率达2.8%，虽较第二季度的3%有所下滑，但仍彰显出经济 的稳定扩张趋势。消费者支出作为经济增长的关键驱动力，在高利率和谨慎情绪影响下，增长步伐有所放缓。不过，科技与医疗保健等部分行业表现亮眼， 为经济增长注入活力。 从地域维度看，经济复苏呈现不均衡态势。城市中心凭借多元化产业结构和强大创新活力，迅速从疫情冲击中反弹；而部分农村地区及小城市，因投资不 足、就业机会创造缓慢，仍在艰难爬坡。这种地域发展差距，凸显出制定针对性政策，推动经济全面复苏的紧迫性。 通胀形势：降温但依旧高企 劳动力参与率仍低于疫情前水平，特别是老年劳动者与家庭照料者群体。美国商会数据显示，尽管当前就业人数多于疫情前，但劳动力占总人口比例下降。 目前美国有800万个职位空缺，而失业人数仅680万，若劳动力参与率恢复至2020年2月水平，将新 ...