Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music's Q2 total revenue increased by 18% year-on-year to 8.44 billion yuan, and non-IFRS net profit rose by 37% year-on-year to 2.57 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations by 6% and 13% respectively, driven by strong growth in non-subscription music revenue [1] Group 1 - The company is expected to maintain growth momentum in its online music business, with projected Q3 total revenue and non-IFRS net profit increasing by 17% and 28% year-on-year respectively [1] - Earnings forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised by 6-10%, based on the synergy effects from artist-related merchandise, offline performances, and music subscription services [1] - The target price for Tencent Music's US stock has been raised from $17.5 to $29.5, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music (TME.N) [4][6]. Core Insights - Tencent Music's total revenue for Q2 2025 reached 8.44 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 17.9%, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 7.99 billion RMB, primarily driven by unexpected growth in non-subscription revenue [2]. - The adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders for Q2 2025 was 2.57 billion RMB, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 37.4%, surpassing the expected 2.27 billion RMB [2]. - The online music revenue accounted for 6.85 billion RMB, up 26.4% year-over-year, representing 81% of total revenue, while social entertainment services and other revenues declined by 8.5% due to adjustments in live streaming features and stricter compliance measures [2][3]. Revenue Structure Summary - Subscription revenue reached 4.38 billion RMB, growing 17.1% year-over-year, with a music MAU of 553 million, a decrease of 3.2% year-over-year, and a total of 12.4 million paying subscribers, an increase of 6.3% year-over-year [3]. - Non-subscription revenue was 2.47 billion RMB, showing a significant growth of approximately 47%, highlighting the company's strong artist resource integration capabilities [3]. - Advertising revenue grew by 36% year-over-year, driven by increased ad placements and enhanced user engagement, particularly during the 618 shopping festival [3]. Expense and Profitability Summary - Total expenses for Q2 2025 were 1.15 billion RMB, remaining relatively stable, with marketing expenses increasing by 3% to 216 million RMB [4]. - The report anticipates a slight decline in gross margin in Q3 2025 due to the rising proportion of non-subscription business, but expects an overall improvement in gross margin for the year [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation Summary - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upward to 9.84 billion RMB, 11.51 billion RMB, and 12.98 billion RMB, reflecting increases of 5.2%, 5.5%, and 3.9% respectively from previous estimates [4]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 32.70 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 15.1% [5].

Core Insights - Tencent Music reported a solid performance for Q2 2025, with total revenue increasing by 17.9% year-on-year to 8.44 billion yuan and adjusted net profit rising by 33.0% to 2.64 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations [1][2] - The growth was primarily driven by the increase in online music service revenue, which accounted for 81.1% of total revenue, marking a significant milestone [1][2] - The number of super members surpassed 15 million, indicating strong user engagement and demand for premium music experiences [3] Revenue Structure - Online music service revenue reached 6.85 billion yuan, a 26.4% increase from 5.42 billion yuan in the same quarter of the previous year, driven by subscription revenue growth and increased advertising services [2] - Subscription revenue specifically grew by 17.1% to 4.38 billion yuan, supported by an increase in average revenue per paying user [2] - The total number of paying users rose by 6.3% to 124.4 million, with average monthly revenue per user increasing from 10.7 yuan to 11.7 yuan [2] Cost Management and Profitability - Operating costs for Q2 2025 were 4.69 billion yuan, up 13.1% year-on-year, mainly due to increased costs related to IP and artist-related expenses [3] - Despite rising costs, the gross margin improved by 2.4 percentage points to 44.4%, attributed to the growth of high-margin subscription services and optimized content sharing ratios [3] - Operating expenses remained stable at 1.16 billion yuan, leading to a significant decrease in expense ratio by 2.3 percentage points to 13.7% due to revenue growth [3] Strategic Initiatives - Tencent Music's "content and platform" strategy has been pivotal in establishing a competitive content ecosystem, facilitating high-quality growth in online music services [5] - The company has created over 300 live performance opportunities for artists through its proprietary IPs, enhancing user engagement and driving super member conversions [5] - Collaborations with major automotive companies aim to improve in-car music experiences, further enriching the membership offerings [5] Expansion Plans - Tencent Music has made strategic acquisitions, including a stake in South Korean SM Entertainment, becoming its second-largest shareholder, which enhances its global positioning [6] - The company has signed an agreement to acquire online audio platform Ximalaya, which will complement its existing music services and strengthen its market position [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 118 [6][11]. Core Insights - The growth in SVIP users has driven an increase in ARPPU, with significant performance in advertising and concert-related businesses, alongside notable cost reduction and efficiency improvements [3][11]. - For Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 8.44 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%, with an adjusted net profit of RMB 2.57 billion, up 37.4% year-on-year [11][15]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The projected revenue for 2025-2027 is RMB 324.5 billion, RMB 364.3 billion, and RMB 405.8 billion, reflecting growth rates of 14.3%, 12.3%, and 11.4% respectively [11][34]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: Adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB 95.8 billion, RMB 112.3 billion, and RMB 125.1 billion for the same period, with growth rates of 24.9%, 17.2%, and 11.4% respectively [11][34]. - **Q2 2025 Performance**: The company reported a gross margin of 44.4%, with an operating profit of RMB 2.98 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.5% [11][15]. Business Segments - **Online Music Subscription Services**: The paid user penetration rate reached 22.5%, with ARPPU increasing to RMB 11.7, a year-on-year rise of 9.3% [11][22][29]. - **Advertising and Concert-Related Services**: Revenue from these segments grew significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 46.9% in Q2 2025 [11][31]. - **Social Entertainment Services**: Revenue declined by 8.5% year-on-year, but the decrease has narrowed compared to previous quarters [11][31]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its content ecosystem by enhancing collaborations with domestic and international record labels and artists, including partnerships with The Black Label and SM Entertainment [11][34]. - New initiatives like the bubble feature on QQ Music aim to strengthen fan engagement and expand the fan economy [11][34].

Group 1 - Barclays believes Tencent Music has significantly exceeded market expectations and demonstrated strong monetization capabilities across all user music experiences, creating an ecosystem that competitors cannot replicate [1] Group 2 - JPMorgan's report on August 12 states that Kuaishou is the most undervalued AI stock, raising its target price from HKD 71 to HKD 88, indicating a potential upside of 22% [2] - The report emphasizes that Kuaishou's core advertising business is accelerating, and the impact of AI on advertising is also underestimated [2] Group 3 - JPMorgan has significantly raised its revenue forecasts for Kuaishou's AI video generation tool, Keling, for 2025 and 2026 by 61% to RMB 12 billion and RMB 19 billion, respectively, based on strong performance in Q2 2025 [3] - Keling's monthly revenue exceeded RMB 100 million in April and May, and concerns about cash flow fluctuations are considered overblown as most revenue comes from the PC side [3] - The global market for AI video generation is substantial, with potential market size exceeding USD 100 billion, and Keling's pricing is only 20-30% of overseas competitors, indicating significant growth potential [3] Group 4 - JPMorgan views Kuaishou's entry into the food delivery sector as an overreaction, noting that it employs a light-asset model by partnering with established companies like Meituan instead of building its own logistics [4] - This model minimizes upfront investment and allows Kuaishou to generate additional revenue through service commissions [4] Group 5 - JPMorgan reiterates Kuaishou as a top pick in China's digital entertainment sector, citing under-monetized advertising and e-commerce businesses, with projected compound annual growth rates of 13% for advertising and e-commerce commissions from 2026 to 2027 [6] - Kuaishou's user traffic remains stable and is not significantly impacted by the rapid growth of WeChat's video accounts, with a shift towards higher-margin advertising and e-commerce expected to boost profit margins [6] Group 6 - Despite a 73% rebound year-to-date, JPMorgan finds Kuaishou's valuation attractive, with current stock prices corresponding to 14/11 times the expected earnings for 2025/2026, while projecting a 20% compound growth rate for profits from 2026 to 2027 [8] Group 7 - JPMorgan sets a target price of HKD 88 for Kuaishou by the end of 2026, based on a 14 times expected earnings multiple for 2026, reflecting optimism about accelerated growth in core advertising and Keling's strong momentum [10]

证券研究报告 腾讯音乐 (TME US/1698 HK) 多元内容生态下凸显强劲变现能力 华泰研究 中报点评 2025 年 8 月 13 日│美国/中国香港 互联网 腾讯音乐娱乐集团（以下简称 TME）公布 25Q2（以下简称 Q2）业绩：收 入 84.4 亿元/yoy+17.9%（彭博一致预测为 79.9 亿元/yoy+11.6%）；调整 后净利润 26.4 亿元/yoy+33%（彭博一致预测 22.7 亿元/yoy+14.3%）。收 入和利润全面超一致预期，主要得益于超级会员的快速发展和非订阅业务的 强劲增长。Q2 公司继续扩大 K-POP、影视综艺等领域的内容优势，并宣布 拟收购喜马拉雅 100%股权，以多元内容生态赋能长期高质量增长。我们认 为公司行业龙头地位稳固，产业链整合能力强，长期利润率仍有上行空间， 维持"买入"评级。 超级会员表现强劲，带动 ARPU 稳健提升 Q2 在线音乐收入同比增长 26.4%至 68.5 亿元，其中：1）订阅收入同比增 长 17.1%至 43.8 亿元，在线音乐付费用户数同比增长 6.3%至 1.244 亿（符 合彭博预期），单个付费用户月均收入（ARPPU）环比提升 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of Tencent Music's Q2 2025 earnings, with total revenue increasing by 17.9% year-on-year to 8.44 billion yuan and adjusted net profit rising by 33% to 2.64 billion yuan [1][2] - Tencent Music's online music service revenue grew by 26.4% to 6.85 billion yuan, with the number of paid users increasing by 6.3% to 124.4 million, and the average monthly revenue per paid user rising from 10.7 yuan to 11.7 yuan [1] - Citigroup noted that Tencent Music's total revenue and adjusted net profit exceeded market expectations by 5.5% and 5.7%, respectively, driven by a 17% increase in subscription revenue and a 47% increase in non-subscription online music revenue [2] Group 2 - The article mentions that southbound capital has seen a net inflow of over 910 billion HKD this year, primarily flowing into core assets in AI and new consumption sectors, indicating a trend towards emerging industries [2] - The Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) includes 30 leading Hong Kong tech stocks, focusing on the AI industry chain, with companies like Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, Meituan, SMIC, and BYD expected to become the "seven giants" of Chinese tech stocks [2] - Investors without a Hong Kong Stock Connect account can access Chinese AI core assets through the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) [2]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music's stock price surged over 17%, reaching a historical high of 104 HKD following the release of its Q2 earnings report, indicating strong financial performance and investor confidence [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q2 reached 8.442 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.91% [1] - Shareholder profit amounted to 2.409 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year growth of 43.22% [1] - Adjusted profit for Q2 was 2.574 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 37.43% [1] Year-to-Date Performance - For the first half of the year, shareholder profit reached 6.7 billion RMB, which is a year-on-year increase of 116% [1] - Adjusted profit for the first half was 4.698 billion RMB, marking a rise of 31.34% compared to the previous year [1]

消息面上，腾讯音乐发布了截至2025年6月30日止的第二季度未经审计财务业绩报告。财报显示，公司 二季度总收入同比增长17.9%达84.4亿元，调整后净利润同比增长33.0%达26.4亿元。其中，在线音乐业 务持续高质量增长，在线音乐服务收入同比增长26.4%至68.5亿元，在线音乐订阅收入同比增长17.1%至 43.8亿元，在线音乐付费用户数同比增长6.3%至1.244亿，ARPPU进一步提升至11.7元。 智通财经获悉，腾讯音乐-SW(01698)高开近13%，截至发稿，涨12.8%，报99.6港元，成交额1044.8万港 元。 本文源自：智通财经网 ...

在一个流媒体竞争日趋激烈的市场环境下，腾讯音乐交出了一份超预期的成绩单：Q2实现了收入和利润的双重加速 增长，在线音乐服务业务强劲增长。 更值得关注的是用户价值的持续提升。月均ARPPU从去年同期的10.7元增长至11.7元，同比增长9.3%，这一增长主 要得益于SVIP会员计划的成功推广。管理层透露，SVIP订阅用户已突破1500万，创下历史新高，反映出用户对高 端音乐体验的强烈需求和支付意愿。 周二下午，腾讯音乐公布二季度财报。核心要点如下： 财务表现 核心业务进展 总收入84.4亿元人民币，同比增长17.9%，主要受在线音乐服务强劲增长驱动。 在线音乐服务收入68.5亿元，同比增长26.4%；音乐订阅收入43.8亿元，增长17.1%。 净利润24.1亿元，同比增长43.2%；非国际财务报告准则净利润25.7亿元，增长37.4%。 毛利率提升至44.4%，去年同期为42.0%。 现金及等价物349.2亿元，财务状况稳健。 SVIP用户突破1500万，月均ARPPU提升至11.7元（同比增长9.3%）。 在线音乐付费用户1.244亿，同比增长6.3%，但月活用户5.53亿，同比下降3.2% 社交娱乐服务收入 ...