| TME 腾讯音乐 | 03 | | --- | --- | | 16.600 4 -1.010 -5.74% | 收盘价 01/07 16:00 美东 | | 16.880 + 0.280 +1.69% | 盘前价 01/08 04:18 美东 | | 二 24 2 5 8 0 同 ●自选 | ● 快捷交易 | | 开盘价 17.380 最高价 17.430 | 成交量 791.53万 | | 最低价 16.600 昨收价 17.610 | 成交额 1.33亿 | | 平均价 16.755 | 市盈率TTM 16.73 总市值 257.12亿(m) | | 振 幅 4.71% 市盈率(静) 27.39 | 总股本 15.49亿 | | 换手率 1.46% 市净率 2.174 | 流通值 89.74亿 | | 委 比 60.00% 52周最高 26.700 | 流通股 5.41亿 | | 52周最低 10.132 量 比 1.74 | 每 手 1股 | | 历史最高 31.559 | 股息TTM 0.184 换股比率 2.00 | | 历史景低 2.887 | 股息率ITM 1.110% 1 % | 腾讯音 ...

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa's report indicates that Tencent Music (01698) is currently valued at a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio of 18 times for 2026, which is considered attractive, leading to an upgrade of the company's rating from "Outperform" to "Buy" [1] Group 1 - The company is expected to have strong monetization capabilities for moderate to heavy users [1] - New revenue sources are anticipated from events and merchandise [1]

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa has upgraded Tencent Music Entertainment Group (01698) from "Outperform" to "Buy," citing an attractive valuation equivalent to an 18x forecasted price-to-earnings ratio for 2026 [1] Group 1 - The company is expected to have strong monetization capabilities for moderate to heavy users [1] - New revenue sources are anticipated from events and merchandise [1]

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa's research report indicates that while there are short-term concerns regarding competition for Tencent Music's light music users, the company is still viewed positively for its monetization capabilities among moderate to heavy users, as well as new revenue sources from events and merchandise [1] Group 1 - Daiwa believes Tencent Music's current valuation corresponds to a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio of 18 times for 2026, which is considered attractive [1] - The rating for Tencent Music has been upgraded from "Outperform" to "Buy" [1] - The target price has been adjusted down from HKD 91 to HKD 82 to reflect the trend of valuation adjustments among peers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The fourth music industry survey by Credit Lyonnais confirms that the fundamentals of China's online music industry remain healthy, with robust long-term growth momentum driven by increasing payment rates, the potential of the super fan economy, and strong user engagement and product differentiation amid intense competition [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The online music industry in China is supported by a continuous increase in payment rates, indicating a growing willingness among users to pay for music services [1] - The potential of the super fan economy is highlighted as a significant driver for future growth, suggesting that dedicated fan bases can lead to increased revenue opportunities [1] - User engagement and product differentiation remain strong, which is crucial for sustaining competitive advantages in a crowded market [1] Group 2: Company Ratings - Credit Lyonnais maintains a target price of HKD 92.1 for Tencent Music, reflecting confidence in its market position and growth prospects [1] - The target price for NetEase Cloud Music has been adjusted down from HKD 310.5 to HKD 275, indicating a more cautious outlook while still maintaining an "outperform" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, driven by strong growth in non-subscription business and stable subscription growth [1] Financial Performance - Revenue increased by 21% year-on-year, with non-subscription business growing by 51% year-on-year and subscription business growing by 17% year-on-year [1] - Non-GAAP net profit exceeded expectations by 4% [1] Investment Outlook - The company is viewed positively due to its strong content and services, establishing a solid competitive moat [1] - The target price for US stocks has been revised down from $29.2 to $25.6, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Group 1 - The concept of price increase based on supply and demand has become a key logic for fund managers to identify potential stocks [1] - As year-end risk aversion rises, the certainty brought by the price increase logic meets the dual demands of fund stock selection [1] - The price increase logic has been highly recognized by retail investors and public funds, with examples including Moutai, Tencent Music, and Meitu [1] Group 2 - Recent price increases in the chemical industry have become an important factor for funds to discover good stocks amid expanding demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music (TME.US) is expected to halt a three-day decline in stock price, with a pre-market increase of 1.34%. Despite exceeding Q3 performance expectations, concerns over competition, particularly from ByteDance's subsidiary, are pressuring the stock. Citigroup maintains a "Buy" rating, highlighting TME's transition towards a more robust social music ecosystem, which may initially impact gross margins but is expected to drive sustainable growth in the long term [1]. Group 1 - Tencent Music's stock price increased by 1.34% in pre-market trading, indicating a potential end to a three-day decline [1]. - Citigroup's report emphasizes that despite strong Q3 results, market concerns about competition are affecting TME's stock performance [1]. - The report suggests that TME is evolving into a higher barrier social music ecosystem, which may initially affect gross margins due to investments in live concert operations [1]. Group 2 - TME's stock closed at $18.680, with a pre-market price of $18.930, reflecting a change of +0.250 [2]. - The stock's trading volume was 15.259 million, with a market capitalization of $28.934 billion [2]. - TME's 52-week high and low are $26.700 and $10.132, respectively, indicating significant volatility in its stock price [2].

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa's research report indicates that Tencent Music's Q3 performance was robust, with revenue and earnings per share exceeding market expectations by 3% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue surprise primarily driven by strong growth in non-subscription music revenue, which increased by 51% year-on-year [1] - The company's ADR decline reflects market concerns regarding competitive landscape and lower-than-expected gross margin guidance for 2026 [1] Group 2: Analyst Ratings and Forecasts - Daiwa maintains an "Outperform" rating on Tencent Music, with the target price reduced from HKD 106 to HKD 91 [1] - Earnings per share forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been lowered by 9% to 14% due to a decrease in subscription revenue [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura's report indicates that Tencent Music's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 21%, reaching 8.5 billion yuan, surpassing market and Nomura's forecasts [1] Revenue Performance - Non-subscription online music service revenue grew by 51% year-on-year, exceeding Nomura's forecast of 35% [1] - Overall revenue reached 8.5 billion yuan, which is higher than market predictions [1] Profitability Metrics - Gross margin improved by 0.9 percentage points to 44% year-on-year [1] - Non-IFRS operating profit margin increased by 2.8 percentage points to 31% due to operational leverage [1] - Non-IFRS net profit grew by 33% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations by 4% [1] Analyst Rating - Nomura has adjusted Tencent Music's U.S. stock target price from $30 to $26 while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]