里昂表示，该行的第四次音乐行业调查再次确认中国线上音乐产业基本面依然健康，长期成长动能稳 健，主要驱动力包括付费率持续提升、超级粉丝经济潜力可期及用户黏性与产品差异化在激烈竞争中依 然强劲，有关因素将持续支撑可持续且高品质的成长前景。该行维持对腾讯音乐H股92.1港元目标价不 变，对网易云音乐目标价从310.5港元下调至275港元，均维持"跑赢大市"评级。 ...

格隆汇11月17日｜招商证券发表报告指，腾讯音乐第三季业绩超预期，营收按年增21%，动能来自非订 阅业务强劲增长，按年升51%，订阅业务亦稳健增长，按年升17%；非公认会计准则净利润超出预期 4%。该行持续看好腾讯音乐凭借其丰富的内容与服务所建立的稳固护城河，风险回报具吸引力；美股 目标价由29.2美元下修至25.6美元，评级"买入"。 ...

人民财讯11月17日电，基于供需关系的涨价概念，已成为基金经理挖掘牛股的硬逻辑。 年末避险情绪抬升之际，涨价逻辑带来的确定性，无疑满足了不少基金选股"既要又要"的需求。涨价逻 辑向来被散户和公募资金高度认可，从早期的茅台到近年开始提价的腾讯音乐、美图公司等基金重仓 股，再到最新的化工，都成为基金在需求端扩张中挖掘好股票的重要密码。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music (TME.US) is expected to halt a three-day decline in stock price, with a pre-market increase of 1.34%. Despite exceeding Q3 performance expectations, concerns over competition, particularly from ByteDance's subsidiary, are pressuring the stock. Citigroup maintains a "Buy" rating, highlighting TME's transition towards a more robust social music ecosystem, which may initially impact gross margins but is expected to drive sustainable growth in the long term [1]. Group 1 - Tencent Music's stock price increased by 1.34% in pre-market trading, indicating a potential end to a three-day decline [1]. - Citigroup's report emphasizes that despite strong Q3 results, market concerns about competition are affecting TME's stock performance [1]. - The report suggests that TME is evolving into a higher barrier social music ecosystem, which may initially affect gross margins due to investments in live concert operations [1]. Group 2 - TME's stock closed at $18.680, with a pre-market price of $18.930, reflecting a change of +0.250 [2]. - The stock's trading volume was 15.259 million, with a market capitalization of $28.934 billion [2]. - TME's 52-week high and low are $26.700 and $10.132, respectively, indicating significant volatility in its stock price [2].

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa's research report indicates that Tencent Music's Q3 performance was robust, with revenue and earnings per share exceeding market expectations by 3% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue surprise primarily driven by strong growth in non-subscription music revenue, which increased by 51% year-on-year [1] - The company's ADR decline reflects market concerns regarding competitive landscape and lower-than-expected gross margin guidance for 2026 [1] Group 2: Analyst Ratings and Forecasts - Daiwa maintains an "Outperform" rating on Tencent Music, with the target price reduced from HKD 106 to HKD 91 [1] - Earnings per share forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been lowered by 9% to 14% due to a decrease in subscription revenue [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura's report indicates that Tencent Music's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 21%, reaching 8.5 billion yuan, surpassing market and Nomura's forecasts [1] Revenue Performance - Non-subscription online music service revenue grew by 51% year-on-year, exceeding Nomura's forecast of 35% [1] - Overall revenue reached 8.5 billion yuan, which is higher than market predictions [1] Profitability Metrics - Gross margin improved by 0.9 percentage points to 44% year-on-year [1] - Non-IFRS operating profit margin increased by 2.8 percentage points to 31% due to operational leverage [1] - Non-IFRS net profit grew by 33% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations by 4% [1] Analyst Rating - Nomura has adjusted Tencent Music's U.S. stock target price from $30 to $26 while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jianyin International expresses optimism about Tencent Music's leadership position and sustainable profitability, attributing this to its differentiated business model, quality content, user base, and diversified revenue sources [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Tencent Music's Q3 2025 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with total revenue and Non-GAAP net profit surpassing institutional forecasts by 3% and 4% respectively, driven by growth in non-subscription music service revenue [1] - For Q4 2025, revenue is expected to increase by 12.6% year-on-year to 8.4 billion RMB, with a net addition of 1.3 million music subscription users, bringing the total to 127 million [1] - Average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) is projected to rise by 9.9% year-on-year to 12.2 RMB, with gross margin expected to increase by 1.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 45.1% [1] Group 2: Investment Outlook - Jianyin International maintains a "Outperform" rating for Tencent Music, setting a target price of 105.7 HKD, suggesting that the recent stock price pullback presents a good buying opportunity [1] - The report highlights that Q4 is typically a low season for concerts but a peak season for advertising, which may positively impact revenue [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jianyin International expresses a positive outlook on Tencent Music (01698), highlighting its leadership position and sustainable profitability due to its differentiated business model, quality content, user base, and diversified revenue streams [1] Financial Performance - Tencent Music's Q3 2025 results slightly exceeded expectations, with total revenue and Non-GAAP net profit surpassing institutional forecasts by 3% and 4% respectively, driven by growth in non-subscription music service revenue [1] - For Q4 2025, revenue is expected to increase by 12.6% year-on-year to 8.4 billion RMB, with a net addition of 1.3 million music subscription users, bringing the total to 127 million [1] - Average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) is projected to rise by 9.9% year-on-year to 12.2 RMB, with gross margin expected to increase by 1.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 45.1% [1] - Non-GAAP net profit is anticipated to grow by 10% year-on-year to 2.5 billion RMB [1] Investment Recommendation - Jianyin International maintains a "Outperform" rating with a target price of 105.7 HKD, suggesting that the recent stock price pullback presents a good buying opportunity [1]

Core Insights - Tencent Music reported third-quarter revenue of 8.46 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.6% [1] - Non-IFRS net profit reached 2.41 billion yuan, up 32.6% year-on-year, slightly exceeding the expectation of 2.3 billion yuan due to better-than-expected performance in non-subscription music business [1] - The company adjusted its Non-IFRS net profit forecasts for the next two years, increasing the 2025 estimate by 1.9% to 9.63 billion yuan and decreasing the 2026 estimate by 4.1% to 10.75 billion yuan [1] - The target prices for US and Hong Kong stocks were lowered by 11.6% and 12.7% to $26 and 100 HKD, respectively, both corresponding to a projected P/E ratio of 26 times for 2026 [1] Financial Performance - Third-quarter revenue: 8.46 billion yuan, up 20.6% year-on-year [1] - Non-IFRS net profit: 2.41 billion yuan, up 32.6% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [1] Forecast Adjustments - 2025 Non-IFRS net profit forecast increased by 1.9% to 9.63 billion yuan [1] - 2026 Non-IFRS net profit forecast decreased by 4.1% to 10.75 billion yuan [1] Target Price Adjustments - US stock target price reduced by 11.6% to $26 [1] - Hong Kong stock target price reduced by 12.7% to 100 HKD [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS report indicates that Tencent Music's Q3 revenue increased by 20.6% year-on-year to 8.46 billion yuan, exceeding both UBS and market expectations by 3.1% and 2.9% respectively [1] - Non-GAAP net profit rose by 32.6% year-on-year to 2.41 billion yuan, also surpassing UBS and market forecasts by 4% and 3.8% respectively [1] - The management expects continued strong growth in subscription services and new revenue sources driven by SVIP expansion, diversified content, and enhanced user engagement [1] Financial Performance - Q3 revenue: 8.46 billion yuan, up 20.6% year-on-year [1] - Non-GAAP net profit: 2.41 billion yuan, up 32.6% year-on-year [1] - Non-GAAP net profit margin: 28.4%, exceeding expectations by approximately 0.3 percentage points [1] Market Reaction and Outlook - UBS anticipates a positive reaction from investors to Tencent Music's better-than-expected performance [1] - Investors are awaiting further details on ARPPU trends, SVIP adoption rates, profit margin outlook, and new business strategies [1] - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating on Tencent Music's US stock with a target price of $30 [1]