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短期采买增加推升碳酸锂期价,后市波动或将加剧
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 07:09
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short term, lithium carbonate futures may maintain a relatively strong oscillation, but the upside space is limited. The current expansion of the supply - demand gap, continuous inventory reduction, and capital sentiment have pushed the price to break through the key resistance level, and the peak season of new energy vehicles and the incremental demand for energy storage provide support. However, the weak follow - up of spot prices, the increasing resistance of downstream to high prices, and the expected release of long - term mine production capacity will suppress the upward slope of prices [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - On November 10, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract rose significantly to 87,240 yuan/ton, a 6% increase from November 7; the basis weakened to - 6,240 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest increased by 8.87% to 534,483 lots, and the trading volume soared by 21.7% to 986,569 lots [1][5] b. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - Supply side: The operating rate of lithium salt plants remained at a high level of 75.3%. The prices of spodumene and lepidolite raw materials were stable, and the lithium extraction processes from salt lakes and spodumene contributed the main increments. The expectation of mine resumption in Yichun, Jiangxi weakened. - Demand side: In October, the retail sales of new energy vehicles increased by 17% year - on - year. The production schedules of power and energy - storage cells continued to improve. The prices of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased slightly, but downstream acceptance of high prices was limited, and purchases were mainly for rigid needs. Policy promotion of energy - storage installation targets and new energy vehicle purchase tax adjustments stimulated the expectation of pre - demand. - Inventory and warehouse receipts: Lithium carbonate inventory decreased for four consecutive weeks to 123,953 tons, with a weekly inventory reduction of 3,405 tons. Warehouse receipts decreased simultaneously, and the supply - demand gap widened to - 1.68 million tons. The industry chain entered an active inventory - reduction cycle [2] c. Market Summary - In the short term, lithium carbonate futures may maintain a relatively strong oscillation, but the upside space is limited. The current expansion of the supply - demand gap, continuous inventory reduction, and capital sentiment have pushed the price to break through the key resistance level. The peak season of new energy vehicles and the incremental demand for energy storage provide support. However, the weak follow - up of spot prices, the increasing resistance of downstream to high prices, and the expected release of long - term mine production capacity will suppress the upward slope of prices. There is a need to be vigilant against the risk of technical corrections caused by capital profit - taking [3] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - Data shows price changes of various products from November 7 to November 10 and from November 7 to October 31, including the main contract of lithium carbonate, basis, open interest, trading volume, and prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, etc. For example, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose from 82,300 to 87,240 yuan/ton, a 6% increase; the basis weakened from - 2,300 to - 6,240 yuan/ton [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation a. Spot Market Quotation - On November 10, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 80,864 yuan/ton, a 493 - yuan/ton increase from the previous working day. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was in the range of 79,000 - 82,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 80,750 yuan/ton, a 350 - yuan/ton increase. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was in the range of 78,150 - 78,950 yuan/ton, with an average price of 78,550 yuan/ton, a 350 - yuan/ton increase. The market sentiment was high due to positive demand. Upstream reluctance to sell was increasing, and downstream material factories were cautious and observant, with very few market transactions. Currently, upstream and downstream enterprises are negotiating long - term agreements for next year, mainly focusing on the coefficient. The overall operating rate of lithium salt plants remained high, with the operating rates of the spodumene and salt - lake ends both above 60%, becoming the main supply forces. It is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in November can maintain the production level of October, with a roughly flat month - on - month change. In terms of demand, both the commercial and passenger new energy vehicles in the power market are growing rapidly; the energy - storage market has strong supply and demand, and the supply is continuously tight. The production schedules of cells and cathode materials continued to improve in November, and it is expected that lithium carbonate will continue to see a large - scale inventory reduction in November [6] b. Downstream Consumption Situation - On November 5, according to the data of the Passenger Car Association, from October 1 - 31, the retail sales of the national new energy passenger vehicle market were 1.4 million, a 17% year - on - year increase and an 8% increase from the previous month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 10.27 million, a 23% year - on - year increase; from October 1 - 31, the wholesale of new energy vehicles by national passenger vehicle manufacturers was 1.614 million, a 16% year - on - year increase and an 8% increase from the previous month. The cumulative wholesale this year was 12.061 million, a 30% year - on - year increase [7] c. Industry News - On October 28, Dazhong Mining's "Mining Plan for Jada Lithium Mine" passed the review of the Ministry of Natural Resources, with an annual mining scale of 2.6 million tons/year. After reaching full production, it can produce about 50,000 tons of lithium carbonate per year. - On October 23, the overall price of the echelon market remained stable, which was the result of the combined effects of supply - demand and cost factors. - On October 22, according to the National Market Supervision and Administration总局, China is about to enter the stage of large - scale retirement of power batteries. In 2024, the domestic power battery recycling volume exceeded 300,000 tons, corresponding to a market scale of over 48 billion yuan. It is expected that by 2030, the domestic market scale will exceed 100 billion yuan [9][10] 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - The content mentions multiple data charts, including those related to the main contract and basis of lithium carbonate futures, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices, spodumene concentrate prices, etc., along with their data sources [13][16][22]
碳酸锂日评:宽幅震荡-20251111
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 03:09
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current supply and demand are both strong, with repeated news of the resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi. The production of lithium carbonate remains at a high level, and the high price intensifies the wait - and - see sentiment among downstream players, resulting in sluggish trading in the spot market. However, there is an expectation of weakening in power demand, and the game between bulls and bears intensifies. It is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate widely. Production enterprises can conduct sell - hedging at high prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Carbonate Lithium Futures Market - On November 10, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures increased in price with an increase in positions. The trading volume was 986,569 lots (+175,914), and the position volume was 534,483 lots (+43,532). The trading in the spot market was sluggish, and the basis discount was large [1]. - The prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, consecutive - three contracts and the overall price all increased compared to the previous trading days. For example, the near - month contract's closing price increased from 80,460 yuan/ton on November 7 to 84,500 yuan/ton on November 10 [1]. 3.2 Lithium - Related Product Prices - The prices of various lithium - related products generally showed an upward trend. For example, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased by 39 US dollars/ton to 966 US dollars/ton, and the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) increased by 45 yuan/ton to 1,365 yuan/ton [1]. - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) increased by 350 yuan/ton to 80,750 yuan/ton, and the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% domestic, coarse - grained) increased by 50 yuan/ton to 75,630 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **Supply side**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from various raw materials all increased. In November, the planned production of lithium carbonate increased, and the scheduled production decreased [1]. - **Demand side**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, and the production of ternary materials increased. In November, the planned production of power batteries increased. In terms of terminal demand, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of new - energy vehicle production and sales slowed down in October, the 3C shipment volume was average, and the planned production of energy - storage batteries increased in November [1]. 3.4 Inventory Situation - The registered warehouse receipts were 27,491 tons (+159 tons), and the social inventory decreased. The inventories of smelters, downstream enterprises, and other parties all decreased. The total inventory decreased by 3,405 tons to 123,953 tons last week [1]. 3.5 Industry News - In October, the wholesale sales volume of new - energy passenger vehicles reached 1.621 million, a year - on - year increase of 18.5% and a month - on - month increase of 8.5%. From January to October, the cumulative wholesale volume was 12.058 million, a year - on - year increase of 29.9% [1]. - The Secretariat of Mining and Energy of Salta Province, Argentina, has issued an Environmental Impact Assessment Report for the first phase of the PPGS Jujuy Lake project, marking a key progress for the project. The project plans to submit an application for the Large - scale Investment Promotion System (RIGI) to the Argentine government in the first half of 2026 and has about 15,070 tons of LCE indicated + controlled resources [1].
港股异动 | 赣锋锂业(01772)再涨超3% 阿根廷锂盐湖合并项目取得关键进展 设计年产能约为15万吨LCE
智通财经网· 2025-11-11 01:38
Core Viewpoint - Ganfeng Lithium's stock has increased by over 3%, reaching HKD 55.9, following the announcement of a significant development in its joint project with Lithium Argentina [1] Group 1: Project Development - On November 10, Ganfeng Lithium announced that the Salta Province's Mining and Energy Secretariat in Argentina has issued the Environmental Impact Assessment Report (DIA) for the joint project, marking a critical advancement [1] - The joint project is planned to submit an application for the Large Investment Incentive Regime to the Argentine government in the first half of 2026, aiming to secure local government support and fiscal incentives [1] - The project is designed with an annual production capacity of approximately 150,000 tons of Lithium Carbonate Equivalent (LCE), to be developed in three phases, with a lifespan of 30 years [1]
赣锋锂业(01772)与Lithium Argentina共同开发合并项目取得关键进展
智通财经网· 2025-11-10 11:37
(二)项目一期年产5万吨LCE的平均运营成本: | 項目一 期 毎 公 噸 L CE 運 營 成 本 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 類 別 | 成 本 | | | 採礦和加工 | 4,228美元 | | | 管理費用 | 154美元 | | | 其他 | 707 美 元 | | | 小 計 | 5,089美元 | | | 應急 開 支 | 254美元 | | | 合計 | 5,344美元 | @智通财经APP | 合并项目采用本公司直接提锂工艺与太阳能蒸发池技术,旨在提高生产效率、减少淡水消耗,并有望提升产品一致性与质量,同时显著 降低生产成本。该项目保留了产品路径的灵活性,可根据包销规格与市场条件定制最终的锂产品。 智通财经APP讯,赣锋锂业(01772)发布公告,关于本公司与Lithium Argentina共同开发合并项目的相关事宜。近日,阿根廷萨尔塔省矿 业和能源秘书处已为合并项目一期颁发了《环境影响评估报告》(DIA),标志着合并项目取得关键进展。合并项目计划于2026年上半年 向阿根廷政府提交大型招商引资制度(Regimen de Incentivo para Grand ...
中国官方附条件批准智利铜业与智利化工新设合营企业案
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-11-10 11:02
11月10日,市场监管总局发布公告,附加限制性条件批准智利国家铜业公司(以下简称智利铜业)与智 利化工矿业公司(以下简称智利化工)新设合营企业案。 本案涉及进口碳酸锂供应领域的重要整合,智利铜业与智利化工拟通过资产注入的方式形成合营企业, 共同经营智利阿塔卡马盐湖锂矿项目。 碳酸锂是锂电池、新能源汽车等产业的关键上游原料,市场监管总局在审查过程中,充分考虑交易对中 国境内进口碳酸锂市场竞争可能产生的影响。 通过附加限制性条件,智利铜业、智利化工及合营企业作出继续履约、公平合理无歧视供应、及时报告 重大供应变化等承诺,有利于碳酸锂产品供应稳定、价格合理,保障下游客户和消费者利益,为我国新 能源产业健康有序发展创造公平竞争环境。 以下为公告全文: 市场监管总局关于附加限制性条件批准智利国家铜业公司与智利化工矿业公司新设合营企业案反垄断审 查决定的公告 市场监管总局收到智利国家铜业公司(以下简称智利铜业)与智利化工矿业公司(以下简称智利化工) 新设合营企业案(以下称本案)的经营者集中反垄断申报。经审查,市场监管总局决定附加限制性条件 批准此项经营者集中。根据《中华人民共和国反垄断法》(以下简称《反垄断法》)第三十六 ...
赣锋锂业(002460.SZ):阿根廷萨尔塔省矿业和能源秘书处已为PPGS锂盐湖项目一期颁发《环境影响评估报告》
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-10 10:42
Core Viewpoint - Ganfeng Lithium has made significant progress with its PPGS lithium salt lake project in Argentina, as the environmental impact assessment report has been issued by the Salta Province's Mining and Energy Secretariat [1] Group 1 - Ganfeng Lithium's PPGS lithium salt lake project has received the Environmental Impact Assessment Report (DIA) [1]
赣锋锂业:与LAR共同开发PPGS锂盐湖项目取得关键进展
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-10 10:22
Core Insights - Ganfeng Lithium announced significant progress in the development of the PPGS lithium salt lake project in Argentina, having received the Environmental Impact Assessment Report from local authorities [1] - The project is set to submit a large-scale investment application in the first half of 2026 [1] - Ganfeng International and LAR hold 67% and 33% equity stakes in Millennial, respectively [1] Project Details - The project has approximately 15.07 million tons of LCE (Lithium Carbonate Equivalent) proven and controlled resources [1] - The designed annual production capacity is around 150,000 tons of LCE, with construction planned in three phases [1] - The average operating cost for producing 150,000 tons of LCE per year is $5,027 per ton, while the first phase, with an annual output of 50,000 tons of LCE, has an operating cost of $5,344 per ton [1]
大中矿业涉锂矿后股价大涨公司提示项目建设存不确定性
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-11-09 20:39
Core Viewpoint - Dazhong Mining (001203) has experienced significant stock price fluctuations, with a cumulative increase exceeding 20% over the past three trading days, prompting the company to conduct an internal review and confirm no undisclosed significant matters affecting its stock price [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Reaction - Dazhong Mining's stock price reached a limit increase for three consecutive trading days from October 29 to October 31, following the announcement of obtaining a mining license for the Hunan Jijiao Mountain lithium mine [3]. - The company has received heightened attention from the capital market due to the announcement regarding the lithium mining license [3]. Group 2: Mining License and Resource Details - Dazhong Mining's wholly-owned subsidiary, Chenzhou Chengtai Mining Investment Co., Ltd., has obtained a 30-year mining license for the Hunan Jijiao Mountain lithium mine, with a lithium resource amounting to 489 million tons, equivalent to approximately 3.2443 million tons of lithium carbonate [3]. - The acquisition of the mining license is considered a key milestone in the company's "Iron + Lithium Dual-Drive" development strategy, expected to enhance overall profitability and sustainable development [3]. Group 3: Cost Advantages and Environmental Considerations - The Hunan lithium mine project boasts cost advantages through integrated mining and processing, allowing for adjustments in concentrate grade and recovery rates based on market prices [3]. - The mining process utilizes a unique sulfuric acid method for lithium extraction, significantly improving lithium recovery rates while also recovering valuable elements like potassium, thus achieving a "one mine, multiple products" approach [3].
大中矿业涉锂矿后股价大涨 公司提示项目建设存不确定性
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-11-09 19:53
Core Viewpoint - Dazhong Mining (001203) has experienced significant stock price fluctuations, with a cumulative increase of over 20% in the last three trading days, prompting the company to conduct an internal review and confirm no undisclosed significant matters [1][2] Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Reaction - Dazhong Mining announced an abnormal stock trading fluctuation due to a price increase exceeding 20% over three trading days [1] - Following the announcement of obtaining a mining license for the Hunan Jijia Mountain lithium mine, the company's stock price hit the daily limit for three consecutive trading days from October 29 to October 31 [2] Group 2: Mining License and Resource Details - The company’s subsidiary, Chenzhou Chengtai Mining Investment Co., Ltd., obtained a 30-year mining license for the Hunan Jijia Mountain lithium mine, with a lithium resource amounting to 489 million tons, equivalent to approximately 3.2443 million tons of lithium carbonate [2] - The acquisition of the mining license is a key milestone in the company's "Iron + Lithium Dual-Drive" development strategy, expected to enhance overall profitability and sustainable development [2] Group 3: Cost Advantages and Production Techniques - The Hunan lithium project boasts cost advantages through integrated mining and processing, allowing for adjustments in concentrate grade and recovery rates based on market prices [2] - The mining process utilizes a unique sulfuric acid method for lithium extraction, significantly improving lithium recovery rates while also recovering valuable elements like potassium, thus achieving a "one mine, multiple products" strategy [2]
碳酸锂周报:仍是去库格局-20251109
Guo Lian Qi Huo· 2025-11-09 13:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is still in a destocking pattern. Amidst news disturbances, the price of lithium carbonate fluctuated sharply this week, and the long - term buying value is significant [8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Core Points and Strategies Supply - **Domestic Supply**: Domestic mica monthly output increased, lithium spodumene and recycling output continued to grow, and domestic lithium salt production capacity increased in November. The Jiaxiaowo lithium mine has been identified, with expected cost increase, but the actual resumption of production needs to be tracked. The lithium carbonate futures reached a high of 85,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the hedging supply of recycled materials [11] - **Foreign Supply (Imports)**: In September, lithium concentrate imports increased by 50,000 tons month - on - month, mainly due to a 136,000 - ton increase in Australian ore imports, while Mali's imports were zero. Lithium carbonate imports in September were 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,000 tons, with cumulative imports of 1.73 million tons (+5.2%). Additionally, 8,000 tons of lithium sulfate were imported from Chile [11] Demand - In October, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased by 10.54% and 11.58% month - on - month respectively, and the production schedule in November is expected to remain strong. Solid - state batteries are a continuously focused area with strong policy support, and currently, more attention is on the increasing demand for lithium iron phosphate [11] Inventory - Weekly inventory has been decreasing month - on - month for about 3 months. This week, it was 124,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,405 tons, and the destocking is accelerating. Warehouse receipts on Friday were 27,332 tons, a decrease of 309 tons during the week. Lithium ore weekly inventory increased for two consecutive weeks [11] Production Cost - Process improvements may reduce production costs. The price of high - purity tantalum ingots has decreased recently, and raw material prices decreased during the week [11] Balance Sheet - Without considering changes in mining permits, it is estimated that there will be a shortage of 17,000 tons in November [11] 3.2 Data Chart Tracking Price and Spread - **Price Changes**: As of Friday, the SMM valuation of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 150 yuan/ton (-0.2%); lithium mica was 2,120 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 60 yuan/ton (-2.75%), with a cost reduction of 1,410 yuan/ton; lithium spodumene (6%) was 927 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17 US dollars/ton (-1.8%), with a cost reduction of 1,071 yuan/ton [23] - **Spread Analysis**: The spread between lithium carbonate and nickel strengthened during the week. The strategy of "long 1 and short 5" for the basis and monthly spread of lithium carbonate is presented [24][28] Production and Capacity - **Weekly Production and Capacity**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate was 21,534 tons (+454 tons), and the weekly production capacity utilization rate was 55.21% (+0.77%). Among them, the production capacity utilization rate of lithium spodumene was 65.17% (+0.47%), mica was 31.98% (+1.38%), and salt lakes was 58.37% (-3.84%). The recycling end production capacity utilization rate was 29.88% (-6.69%) [34] - **Monthly Production**: In October 2025, China's lithium carbonate production was 92,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6%, and the cumulative output from January to October was 775,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 44%. The production of lithium hydroxide in October was 29,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6% [35] - **New Capacity**: In November, the lithium element production capacity will continue to grow (110,000 tons). Newly put - into - production projects include 10,000 tons of lithium salt from Tibet Mining, 30,000 tons from Luopu Xihai New Energy, 30,000 tons of battery - grade lithium hydroxide from Tianqi Lithium, and 40,000 tons of lithium salt from Salt Lake Co., Ltd [36] Import and Export - **Lithium Ore Imports**: In September, lithium concentrate imports increased by 50,000 tons month - on - month, mainly due to a 136,000 - ton increase in Australian ore imports. In October, China's lithium ore production (spodumene + mica) was 20,000 tons LCE, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% [44] - **Lithium Carbonate Imports**: In September, lithium carbonate imports were 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,000 tons, with cumulative imports of 1.73 million tons (+5.2%). In October, Chile exported 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate, of which 16,200 tons were exported to China, a month - on - month increase of 5,100 tons (+46%) [47] Downstream Demand - **Positive Electrode Materials**: In October, the production of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased by 11.58% and 10.54% month - on - month respectively [48] - **Terminal Demand**: From January to September, the winning bid capacity for energy storage was 131.6 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 37.8%. In September, new energy vehicle sales were 1.604 million, a month - on - month increase of 15%, and the cumulative sales from January to September were 11.198 million, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 34.6% [57] Other Factors - **Raw Material Prices**: The price of high - purity tantalum ingots has been decreasing since June, and the price of potash fertilizer has fluctuated slightly recently. The US added potash fertilizer as a critical mineral on November 6 [61][66] - **Profit Analysis**: The profit from externally purchased lithium spodumene is slightly positive, while the lithium mica end is still in a loss [68] - **Balance Sheet Analysis**: The balance sheet shows that without considering the shutdown/restart of lithium mines in Jiangxi, there will be a shortage of 17,000 tons in November. New capacities of lithium spodumene and salt lakes are being put into production and ramping up, and the production schedule of positive electrode materials in November is continuously improving [72][73]