Right now, we want to get over to Steve Leeman. He is at the Chicago Fed Economic Outlook Symposium this week with bank president Austin Goulsby. Steve, take it away.>> Hey, good morning, Becky, and thank you. Just before I go, um I start here. Um Jeff Schmidt, the Kansas City Fed president, another dissenter out with a statement at this hour saying the reason he desented, inflation is too high, the economy showed continuing momentum, and the labor market he says is largely imbalanced.But we could talk abou ...

Market Overview - Major U.S. index futures indicate a mixed opening, with Nasdaq 100 futures down by 0.5% and Dow futures up by 0.2% [1] - The Dow continues to benefit from a shift toward cyclical stocks, reaching a new record closing high [3] - Overall trading activity may be subdued due to a lack of major U.S. economic data [3] Company Performance - Broadcom (AVGO) shares are under pressure, down by 5.4% in pre-market trading despite better-than-expected fiscal fourth quarter results and positive guidance [2] - Other chipmakers like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Micron Technology (MU) are also experiencing pre-market weakness, indicating a potential rotation out of tech stocks [2] - Oracle (ORCL) shares plunged by 10.8% after reporting fiscal second quarter earnings that exceeded analyst estimates but had weaker-than-expected revenues [5][6] Stock Index Movements - The Dow jumped 646.26 points or 1.3% to a new record closing high of 48,704.01, partly driven by a 6.1% increase in Visa (V) shares after an upgrade from Bank of America [4][5] - The S&P 500 rose 14.32 points or 0.2% to 6,901.00, while the Nasdaq closed down 60.30 points or 0.3% at 23,593.86 [4] Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to 236,000, an increase of 44,000 from the previous week's revised level of 192,000, exceeding economists' expectations [7] - Gold stocks surged by 4.3%, reaching a new record closing high, alongside a significant increase in gold prices [7][9] International Market Reactions - Asian stocks rallied following a less hawkish outlook from the U.S. Federal Reserve, with the Nikkei 225 Index jumping 1.4% [10][12] - Chinese shares rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.4% after pledges for a proactive fiscal policy [11] - European stocks moved higher, driven by optimism regarding potential interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve [16]

Inflation Trends - India's consumer inflation rose to 0.71% in November, up from an all-time low of 0.25% in the previous month, aligning with estimates of a 0.70% increase in the consumer price index [1][2] - The increase in inflation was attributed to higher prices for vegetables, eggs, meat, fish, spices, and fuel, with fuel and light prices rising 2.32% in November compared to 1.98% in October [2] Monetary Policy - The Reserve Bank of India cut its policy rates by 25 basis points, aiming to support economic growth amid a low inflation environment [3] - The central bank projects consumer inflation at 2% for the fiscal year ending March 2026, a decrease from the previous forecast of 2.6% [3] - The RBI's monetary policy meeting indicated a continued focus on supporting growth, with Governor Sanjay Malhotra emphasizing a proactive approach to meet the economy's productive requirements [4] Economic Outlook - HSBC Research suggested that weaker growth, prolonged low inflation, and tight fiscal policy may necessitate supportive monetary policy in 2026 [5] - Exports to the U.S., which constitute about 2% of India's GDP, have seen a decline, with a significant drop of 8.5% in October, leading to concerns about job losses in labor-intensive sectors [6][7] - The Indian rupee has been trading at record lows against the dollar, falling below the 90-rupee-per-dollar mark, amid declining exports and lack of trade agreements with the U.S. [7]

Core Insights - Climate change significantly exacerbated severe flooding in South and Southeast Asia, resulting in over 1,600 fatalities and approximately $20 billion in damages due to three tropical cyclones in November [1][2]. Climate Impact - Warmer Indian Ocean waters, approximately 0.2°C above long-term averages, contributed to the intensity of Cyclones Ditwah and Senyar by providing additional heat and moisture [2]. - Without human-induced climate change, ocean temperatures would have been about 1°C cooler, indicating a direct link between climate change and increased storm severity [2]. Urbanization and Environmental Factors - The combination of climate change, seasonal weather cycles, and rapid urbanization, along with widespread deforestation, intensified the flooding, with water levels exceeding expected heights during the monsoon season [3]. - Researchers noted that while flooding is typical during monsoon season, the levels reached in some areas were unprecedented, exceeding 14 to 15 feet [3]. Climate Model Limitations - Current climate models have struggled to accurately predict the rapid pace of climate change and its impacts, particularly since 2022, leading to economic challenges for insurers and financial firms [4]. - The inconsistency in major climate models regarding rainfall increases from the cyclones suggests a need for improved models that can better capture regional dynamics [3][4]. Historical Weather Analysis - An analysis by ClimaMeter indicated that meteorological conditions during Indonesia's floods were up to 7 millimeters a day, or 15%, wetter than historical averages, underscoring the influence of climate change [6]. - The attribution group expressed low confidence in their findings due to the rarity of similar events, but noted that natural climate variability played a minimal role in the floods [7]. Increasing Extreme Weather Events - Research indicates a growing trend of extreme rainfall events in Southeast Asia over recent decades, aligning with the findings of the recent floods [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to structural supply shortages, increased industrial demand, and declining inventories, leading to a premium in the spot market over futures [2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Structural supply shortages are causing long-term production to lag behind demand for silver [2]. - Industrial demand is experiencing a significant increase, particularly from the solar energy and electric vehicle sectors, which require silver for conductive materials [2]. - Silver inventories are at historical lows, contributing to a "spot premium" where physical silver is more expensive than futures contracts [2]. Group 2: Future Demand Projections - Analysts predict that sectors such as solar energy, electric vehicles, data centers, and artificial intelligence will drive industrial demand for silver up to 2030 [2]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The current market shows a disconnect between U.S. silver supplies and those in other regions due to tariffs and the classification of silver as a critical mineral, tightening global supply [2]. - The London silver price is fluctuating around key support and resistance levels, indicating a potential for short-term recovery in prices [3].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve Board has unanimously approved the reappointment of all 12 regional Reserve Bank presidents and first vice presidents, interpreted as a strategic move to protect the central bank from political interference [1][2][4] - The reappointments, which follow a standard schedule, secure the leadership of the Federal Reserve System's operating arm for a new five-year term starting March 1, 2026 [2][7] - The decision effectively locks in the composition of the Federal Open Market Committee's rotating voters through 2031, preventing potential political leverage during upcoming term expirations [3][4] Leadership and Evaluation - The reappointments followed a "comprehensive review" initiated in December 2024 by non-political boards of directors at each regional bank, assessing leaders on performance dimensions such as effectiveness and community engagement [5] - Extended terms have been confirmed for key policy figures, including New York Fed President John C. Williams, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, with exceptions for Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Shonda S. Clay [6]

Core Viewpoint - A coalition of U.K. lawmakers is urging Chancellor Rachel Reeves to ensure that the regulatory framework for stablecoins fosters innovation and does not drive capital overseas, as current proposals from the Bank of England may undermine London's status as a global financial hub [1][5]. Group 1: Importance of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are becoming a crucial part of the digital economy, enhancing financial transactions by reducing costs, speeding up settlements, and promoting financial inclusion [2]. - Transactions involving stablecoins reached $27.6 trillion in 2024, exceeding the combined activity of Visa and Mastercard by nearly 8%, with projections suggesting this could surpass $100 trillion by 2030 [3]. Group 2: Concerns Over Regulatory Framework - The Bank of England's draft framework imposes restrictions on stablecoin usage in wholesale markets, bans interest on reserves, and limits holdings to GBP 20,000, which could hinder the U.K.'s participation in financial innovation [4]. - Such limitations may render pound-backed stablecoins less attractive, pushing investors towards dollar-pegged alternatives like USDC and USDT, which are outside U.K. regulatory oversight [4]. Group 3: Potential Market Implications - The lawmakers warn that these regulatory constraints could lead to a migration from pound-backed digital assets to dollar-based ones, resulting in a two-tier market where most on-chain activities are denominated and settled in U.S. dollars [5]. - The urgency of this intervention is heightened by the U.S. advancing its GENIUS Act to clarify regulations for digital assets, raising concerns about the erosion of London's fintech leadership due to indecision in domestic policy [5]. Group 4: Call for Action - The letter concludes with a call for a progressive stablecoin framework that would attract international investment, support high-value fintech growth, and reinforce the U.K.'s position as a global innovation hub [6].

M Global Foundation December 8, 2025 07:00 AM GMT Global Economic Briefing The Global 360 Our views around the world. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For analyst certification and other impo ...

price of ANZ Banking Group (Right now, you could probably use Google or another data provider to see theof ASX: ANZ ) is around $36 per share. But what are ANZ shares really worth? How to get to an share valuation is one of the more popular questions our senior investment analysts get asked by Australian investors, especially those seeking dividend income. It’s not exclusive to ANZ Banking Group, of course.National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) and Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) are also very pop ...

Core Insights - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has lowered the fed funds rate by a quarter point for the third consecutive meeting to stabilize the job market, but upcoming leadership changes may influence future rate decisions [2][4][10] Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership and Policy Changes - The impending end of Chair Jerome Powell's term in May raises questions about the future direction of the Fed under new leadership, which could lead to different interest rate policies [2][4][10] - Market participants are increasingly focusing on the opinions of the incoming Fed chair rather than Powell's guidance as his term concludes [4][6] - The new leadership may align with President Trump's preference for lower interest rates, as indicated by market pricing for additional rate cuts compared to the Fed's projections [6][7][9] Group 2: Economic Projections and Market Reactions - The Fed's projections for future rate cuts have been complicated by a government shutdown that delayed key economic data, making it harder to assess the current economic landscape [8][9] - Financial markets are pricing in lower future interest rates than the Fed's forecasts, likely due to expectations of a more dovish approach from Trump's nominee for Fed chair [9][10] - The upcoming changes in the voting committee, with new members potentially being more hawkish, could further impact interest rate decisions [10][11] Group 3: Strategic Considerations for Powell - In his final months, Powell may focus on maintaining the Fed's independence and credibility rather than committing to specific rate cuts, as he navigates the transition to new leadership [12]