证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 07 22 年 月 日 【房地产】C-REITs 周报——指数震荡，首批数据中心 REITs 认购火爆 ——20250721 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【策略】中报预披露的历年对比与景气指引——20250722 【固定收益】房地产销售继续回落——基本面高频数据跟踪—— 20250721 ◼ 研究视点 【食品饮料】原奶及牧业调研报告：肉奶周期共振，牧业弹性释放—— 20250722 【商社】业绩预告陆续披露，企业持续积极布局——20250721 朝闻国盛 业绩预告陆续披露，企业持续积极布局 【电子】中微公司（688012.SH）-营收业绩稳健增长，高研发转换效率 打造高端装备平台——20250721 作者 | 分析师 马婷婷 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0680519040001 | | | | | 邮箱：matingting@gszq.com | | | | | 行业表现前五名 | | | | | 行业 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 1 年 | | 建筑材料 | 16.1% | 11.3% ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The aging population in China is projected to reach 310.31 million by the end of 2024, accounting for 22.0% of the total population, creating a significant market demand for the silver economy [1] - The consumption patterns of the elderly are shifting from basic needs to diversified and quality-oriented consumption, particularly in tourism and health sectors [3] Group 2: Consumption Trends - During the Spring Festival, the elderly demographic showed remarkable spending in cultural and tourism sectors, with cruise bookings increasing by 357% year-on-year, and orders from those aged 50 and above nearly doubling [3] - In health and wellness, sales of mobility and hearing assistance products are expected to grow by 32.2% and 30.1% respectively by mid-2025, indicating a strong willingness to invest in health products among the elderly [3] Group 3: Policy Support - The Chinese government has issued policies to support the development of the silver economy, emphasizing the need for scale, standardization, and high-quality services [4] - Financial policies are encouraging banks to provide specialized products and support for aging-related innovations, such as smart elderly care devices [4] Group 4: Industry Growth - There are over 367,000 existing companies related to the silver economy in China, with approximately 22,000 new registrations expected by 2025, indicating a growing interest in this sector [5] - The silver economy is transitioning from a consumer market "blue ocean" to a capital market "hot spot," particularly in health consumption, which is attracting significant investment [5] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Smart elderly care devices are becoming a focal point for capital investment, with companies like Woan Robotics seeking to go public, reflecting the growing interest in this area [5] - The medical technology sector is also attracting investment, with companies like Weimei Health completing significant funding rounds to develop AI-driven healthcare solutions [6]

Group 1 - In the first half of the year, final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to GDP growth, highlighting its role as the main engine of economic growth [1] - Service consumption growth outpaced goods consumption, with retail sales of household appliances, communication equipment, cultural office supplies, and furniture increasing by 30.7%, 25.4%, 24.1%, and 22.9% respectively [1] - Passenger car retail volume increased by 10.8% year-on-year in the first half of the year [1] Group 2 - The tourism market remained robust, with domestic travel during the "May Day" holiday reaching 314 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, and total spending of 180.27 billion yuan, up 8.0% [1] - The film market saw significant growth, with nationwide box office exceeding 29.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 20% [1] - The concert market also thrived, with ticket sales for concerts increasing by approximately 40% year-on-year in the first half of the year [1] Group 3 - New consumption types such as digital consumption, green consumption, and "IP + consumption" are thriving, with online retail sales of physical goods growing by 6.0%, accounting for 24.9% of total retail sales [2] - The optimization of the departure tax refund policy has shown initial results, with a 94.6% year-on-year increase in departure tax refund sales [2] - The number of inbound and outbound foreign visitors reached 38.05 million in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 30.2%, with visa-free foreign visitors increasing by 53.9% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The popularity of the drama "The Lychee of Chang'an" has temporarily boosted tourism in Xi'an and the stock price of Qujiang Cultural Tourism Co., Ltd, but the company continues to face significant financial losses over the past three years, indicating that the "Lychee boom" may not be a sustainable solution to its financial troubles [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Qujiang Cultural Tourism reported an annual revenue of 1.253 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.68%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -131 million yuan, which is a 32.79% improvement from the -195 million yuan loss in 2023 [3]. - The company expects a net loss of 13 million to 16.9 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant reduction of 90.96% to 93.05% compared to the 187 million yuan loss in the same period last year [4]. - The reduction in losses is primarily attributed to non-recurring gains, while the core business continues to face challenges [4]. Business Model and Challenges - Qujiang Cultural Tourism operates as a light-asset operator, relying on government payments for scenic area management rather than ticket revenue, leading to a decline in income from core business operations [3]. - Three out of four major subsidiaries that significantly impact net profit reported losses, indicating underlying financial vulnerabilities [3]. Market Response and IP Strategy - The drama's release led to a surge in tourism, with daily visitors to the 大唐不夜城 increasing by 600%, and overall tourism search volume in Xi'an rising by 320% [7]. - The company has initiated an IP strategy to monetize its assets, including the registration of 13 core scenic area trademarks and collaborations with brands for product development [8]. - Despite the initial success of the drama, the long-term sustainability of revenue generation from such IPs remains uncertain, as the company struggles with high operational costs and low profitability [6][10]. Cultural Impact and Future Outlook - The integration of cultural and tourism experiences is seen as a way to enhance consumer engagement, but the company must focus on extending its revenue streams beyond reliance on fleeting trends [9][10]. - Experts suggest that the company needs to strengthen its IP management and avoid over-reliance on short-term popularity to ensure long-term financial health [10].

Core Insights - Guangdong's GDP grew by 4.2% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating a steady growth trend [2] - The growth is attributed to both opportunities and challenges in the global market, particularly the emergence of DeepSeek and the unpredictable U.S. tariff policies [4][9] Economic Performance - The new momentum industries, including AI and humanoid robots, have shown rapid growth [5] - Guangdong's foreign trade reached 4.55 trillion yuan in the first six months, a 4% increase compared to the same period last year, outpacing the national growth rate by 1.1 percentage points [10] - Exports amounted to 2.89 trillion yuan, maintaining positive growth, with private enterprises accounting for 64.2% of the total trade value [10] Sector Contributions - High-tech products have significantly contributed to the economic landscape, with notable advancements in robotics [7] - The retail sector saw a steady increase, with total retail sales growing by 3.5% year-on-year, driven by effective policies like the trade-in program [10] - The tourism industry experienced growth, with passenger traffic and turnover increasing by 4.0% and 6.5%, respectively, during the Spring Festival [12] Future Outlook - The resilience and vitality of Guangdong's economy are attributed to its solid industrial foundation and adaptability [12] - With the implementation of policies aimed at promoting industrial innovation, Guangdong's economy is expected to have support, confidence, and growth potential in the second half of 2025 [12]

Core Insights - The economic performance of Tibet Autonomous Region in the first half of 2025 shows a GDP of 138.27 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2% [1] Economic Performance - The primary industry added value reached 7.07 billion yuan, growing by 12.5%, driven by improvements in highland特色 agriculture and livestock, with vegetable and meat, egg, and milk production increasing by 17.4% and 14.3% respectively [1] - The secondary industry added value was 52.98 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7.0%, as green mining and clean energy industries accelerated their development [1] - The tertiary industry added value was 78.22 billion yuan, growing by 6.9%, with tourism, finance, and logistics showing signs of recovery in modern service sectors [1] Tourism Sector - The region welcomed 32.18 million tourists, generating a total tourism revenue of 31.55 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 11.7% and 10.2% respectively [1] - Cultural and tourism economy has become a significant driver of consumption in the region [1]

Core Insights - The increasing popularity of cultural and entertainment activities is driving Chinese tourists to Malaysia, with a significant rise in concert attendance and tourism [1][2][3] - The implementation of the mutual visa exemption agreement between China and Malaysia has further boosted tourism growth, making it easier for Chinese travelers to visit [1][7] Group 1: Concerts and Tourism - Malaysia has hosted 44 large-scale concerts in the first half of 2025, with an additional 32 scheduled from July to September [1] - Jay Chou's concert in Malaysia attracted approximately 45,000 attendees, with a 37.8% year-on-year increase expected in 2024 [1] - The trend of combining concert attendance with travel is emerging, with many tourists planning additional sightseeing after events [3] Group 2: Visitor Statistics - From January to April 2023, Malaysia welcomed 13.4 million visitors, a 21% increase compared to the previous year, surpassing Thailand in visitor numbers [1][7] - Chinese tourists accounted for 1.4 million visitors during this period, making China the third-largest source of tourists for Malaysia [1] Group 3: Social Media Influence - The topic of "Malaysia concerts" has garnered 23.7 million views and 196,000 discussions on social media platform Xiaohongshu, indicating strong interest from Chinese tourists [2] - The success of concerts, such as G.E.M.'s performance, which set a record with over 65,000 attendees, highlights the growing trend of concert tourism [2] Group 4: Travel Preferences - Chinese tourists prefer small group and independent travel, with a focus on cultural experiences and local cuisine [6][7] - The cost-effectiveness of traveling to Malaysia for concerts compared to domestic options is encouraging more visitors [3] Group 5: Flight and Visa Data - Following the visa exemption announcement, flight volumes between China and Malaysia increased significantly, with a 62% year-on-year rise in flights by April 2023 [8] - The mutual visa exemption has lowered travel barriers, leading to a 163% increase in search interest for Malaysia tourism on the day of the announcement [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [5] Core Viewpoints - The retail sector shows a stable overall performance in 2025, with some companies demonstrating positive trends. The second quarter earnings forecasts are being disclosed, and companies are actively positioning themselves for growth [8] - The new consumption landscape remains vibrant, with key players such as Gu Ming, Cha Bai Dao, and others expected to perform well [8] - Retail transformation continues, with traditional retailers like Yonghui Supermarket and others making significant adjustments to their operations [8] Summary by Sections Retail Sector - In June 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 42,287 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, which is in line with expectations. Excluding petroleum and automotive factors, the retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 35,702 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.1% [1] - Various categories showed different growth rates, with essential goods like food and beverages increasing by 8.7%, while optional categories like furniture and automobiles experienced a slowdown [1] Tourism and Hospitality - The tourism sector is expected to see a decline in visitor numbers and revenue growth in Q2 due to various factors, but companies are improving their capabilities through IP, products, and marketing [2] - The hotel sector is showing signs of improvement, with Jin Jiang Hotels forecasting a net profit of 3.2-3.6 billion yuan for Q2, despite a year-on-year decline of 50.7%-44.7% [2] Food and Beverage - Some restaurant brands have shown positive performance in June, with Guoquan expecting a core operating profit of 1.8-2.1 billion yuan for H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 44%-68% [3] - The tea beverage sector is anticipated to benefit in Q3, maintaining relatively high growth rates [3] Retail Transformation - Traditional retail companies are undergoing significant transformations, with Yonghui Supermarket adjusting 124 stores and closing 227 in the first half of 2025 [4] - Specialized chains like mother and baby stores and Miniso are expected to see improved growth rates in Q2 [4] Cross-Border Trade - The small commodity city in Yiwu has seen strong demand in the潮玩 and skincare sectors, with bidding results exceeding expectations [7] - The overall growth rate of the cross-border sector may experience a slight decline due to varying tariff impacts [7] Investment Recommendations - Key companies to watch include Yonghui Supermarket, Chongqing Department Store, and others in the retail transformation space [8] - In the tourism sector, companies like Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism and Songcheng Performance are expected to perform well [8]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu's cultural and tourism system has effectively implemented the "14th Five-Year Plan," achieving significant progress in cultural and tourism development, aiming to establish a culturally strong province and a world-class tourist destination [1] Group 1: Cultural and Artistic Development - The cultural and tourism system in Jiangsu has focused on combining talent development with artistic output, enhancing the creative environment, and improving the organization of artistic production [2] - Notable artistic achievements include the award-winning performances such as the Xiju "Candlelight Ahead" and the Kunqu "Qu Qiubai," showcasing the province's commitment to high-quality artistic creation [2][3] - Initiatives like the "New Three-Year Plan" for the Kunshan Hundred Dramas Festival have been recognized as top cases of reform and innovation in the cultural tourism sector [2] Group 2: Public Cultural Services - Jiangsu has aimed to enhance public cultural services, transitioning from full coverage to high efficiency, ensuring equitable access to cultural resources for the public [4] - The province has implemented the "Double Thousand Plan" to foster cultural stations and teams that serve the community, enhancing cultural engagement [4] - New initiatives have been launched to bring quality cultural resources closer to the public, including local exhibitions and performances [4] Group 3: Cultural Heritage and Preservation - The province has emphasized the systematic protection and active transmission of cultural heritage, aiming to creatively transform and develop traditional culture [5][6] - Jiangsu has initiated major archaeological projects and established a modern museum system to enhance the preservation and utilization of cultural relics [6] - The number of UNESCO intangible cultural heritage items has increased to 12, ranking first in the country, reflecting the province's commitment to heritage preservation [7] Group 4: Tourism Industry Growth - In 2024, Jiangsu had 12,138 large-scale cultural enterprises, generating revenue of 1.61 trillion yuan, accounting for 11.3% of the national total [8] - The province received 1.09 billion domestic and international tourists, with tourism revenue reaching 1.34 trillion yuan, marking growth rates of 15.8% and 11.5% respectively [8] - Policies have been introduced to stimulate tourism consumption, including night tourism and cultural events, contributing to the recovery of the tourism market [8][9] Group 5: Digital Transformation in Cultural Tourism - Jiangsu has leveraged modern technology to drive transformation in the cultural tourism sector, establishing a smart tourism platform with extensive data assets [12] - The province has expanded the application of technologies like 5G and AI to create immersive experiences and enhance tourism services [12][13] - Innovative projects have been launched to integrate culture, creativity, and technology, appealing to younger audiences [12][13]

Core Insights - The article highlights the integration of culture and tourism in Bazhong, emphasizing the development of unique tourism brands and the promotion of local attractions to enhance economic growth [4][6][7] Group 1: Cultural and Tourism Development - The Yangqing Village has seen significant economic benefits from tourism, with a collective income of over 600,000 yuan and over 1 million visitors expected in 2024, generating approximately 8 million yuan in tourism revenue [4] - Bazhong has launched the "Four Caves Fortune City" tourism brand, aiming to attract 400,000 visitors and achieve a tourism revenue of 200 million yuan by the end of 2027 [6] - The city is focusing on the integration of "red tourism" with cultural experiences, having received over 400,000 visitors to the Red Army Martyrs Memorial Museum this year [7] Group 2: Diversification of Tourism Offerings - The immersive night performance "New Dream of Guangwu Mountain" has been upgraded to enhance visitor engagement, contributing to the growth of the night economy, which saw 12 million nighttime consumers and 4 billion yuan in spending in the first half of 2025 [9][10] - Bazhong is developing various tourism experiences, including sports and wellness tourism, leveraging its 37 national and provincial forest health bases [10] Group 3: Service Optimization - The "159米仓民宿" project aims to upgrade accommodation facilities, planning to renovate or build at least 900 new guesthouses across multiple locations [11] - Infrastructure improvements include the addition of charging stations along major tourist routes, enhancing the travel experience for visitors [11] - A new complaint handling mechanism has been introduced to improve customer service and satisfaction, allowing for quick resolution of disputes [12]