Key findings from TransUnion report: New-to-credit Canadians led to greater credit participation, accounting for $2.6 billion in new credit balances in Q1 2025Subprime consumers are almost twice as likely to go delinquent within 12 months of opening new credit cards, compared to their pre-pandemic cohortsGrowing concerns around Canadian consumers experiencing economic strain TORONTO, May 28, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The first quarter of 2025 saw mixed outcomes in the Canadian credit market, according to Tra ...

以下文章来源于CFC商品策略研究 ，作者CFC商品策略研究 CFC商品策略研究 . 好的研报应该提供打破经验，观念，陈规或惯例的视角，提供自我逻辑审查的意识自觉。阅读体验应该是一次历险，也许是一次漂流，它并不 把你带到任何一个安全的港湾去，但更像是提供一种类似在悬崖边临渊回眸，另做选择的逻辑启发，或自我反讽的邀请。 文 | 田亚雄 来源 | CFC商品策略研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 引言 最近不绝于耳的讨论是，达成什么样的条件才能形成抄底的安全边际？是价格优先（比如文华商品指数2019年3月的156左右的位置、 2020年9月146的位置）还是时间优先（比如美国遭遇CPI现实压力的2025年Q3末），但至少2025年4月解放日的低点并不牢靠的共 识正在形成。商品定价继续关注边际的力量，在5月12日后难觅新增的多头驱动，而在库存周期底部甚至进一步形成主动去库存的卖 压。 5月16日，国际三大信用评级机构之一的穆迪宣布将美国主权信用等级从最高级的3A（Aaa）下调至2A（Aa1）。从1917年穆 迪给予美国主权信用评级起，108年以来，这是其首次将美国的信用等级从最高级下调。 信用评级的下调直接 ...

财政部回应称，去年四季度以来，中国政府实施一揽子宏观经济调控政策，经济指标回升向好，市场预期和信心稳定，债务中长期可持续性增 强，穆迪作出维持中国主权信用评级稳定的决定，是对中国经济向好前景的正面反映。 当日，美元指数盘中跳水至98.6921，创三周新低。受此影响，在岸、离岸人民币汇率双双上扬，离岸人民币（CNH）一度升破7.17关口，最高触 及7.16155元，创2024年12月以来新高，且自上个月以来，离岸人民币在1个多月内跌幅超2500个基点。市场分析认为，自穆迪下调美国信用评级 后，市场对美国双赤字担忧加深，美联储官员谨慎言论打压市场情绪，预计政策暂停将延续至7月会议，美元开启新一轮跌势。此外，美联储最新 会议纪要释放"鹰派观望"信号，降息预期推迟至9月，美国4月耐用品订单数据不及预期，也导致美元短期获利回吐。 机构方面，高盛外汇策略团队指出，若美元指数持续回落，人民币短期或测试7.15阻力位，但下半年走势仍需观察中美货币政策分化程度。近 期，中国央行通过逆回购、MLF等工具维持流动性宽松，叠加稳增长政策提振市场信心，中美利差预期收窄，部分做空人民币的套利资金加速离 场。中金公司表示，企业结汇需求季节 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's has historical implications for equity markets, suggesting potential volatility and directional moves in major indices like the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite [5][16]. Group 1: Credit Rating Downgrade - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA1, marking the last major agency to do so, following similar actions by S&P and Fitch [6][7]. - The downgrade highlights ongoing economic challenges, including persistent federal deficits, rising interest rates, and demographic shifts affecting labor force participation [8][9][11][12]. Group 2: Historical Context and Market Reactions - Historical data indicates that the S&P 500 experienced a 2.6% decline one month after the 2011 downgrade and a 1.2% dip after Fitch's downgrade in 2023, attributed to increased market volatility [17]. - Conversely, the S&P 500 saw significant gains of 18.8% and 20.8% one year after the respective downgrades, suggesting a potential recovery trajectory despite initial declines [18][20]. Group 3: Economic Resilience - Despite concerns over national debt and economic headwinds, historical trends show that U.S. recessions are typically short-lived, averaging around 10 months, while periods of economic expansion last approximately five years [21]. - The average bear market for the S&P 500 has lasted about 286 days, while bull markets have persisted for around 1,011 days, indicating a favorable long-term outlook for investors betting on U.S. economic growth [22].

Core Viewpoint - Fair Isaac's shares dropped 21.9% this week following critical comments from FHFA Director Bill Pulte regarding recent price increases for credit scores and a review of credit report practices [1][3]. Group 1: Price Increases and Regulatory Scrutiny - Fair Isaac announced a price increase for credit scores from $3.50 to $4.95 for mortgage applications last November [3]. - Pulte criticized the transparency of price increases for credit reports from the three major credit bureaus, questioning why some reports cost significantly more than during previous administrations [4]. - The FHFA is reviewing the necessity of "tri-merged" scores, which utilize credit scores from all three major bureaus, and considering a shift to "bi-merged" scores that would only use two [4]. Group 2: Impact on Fair Isaac's Business - A potential reduction in the volume of credit scores needed for bi-merged reports could negatively impact Fair Isaac's business [5]. - Despite the cautionary news, Fair Isaac's FICO scores are used across various types of loans, and the company also generates revenue from software and analytics services, which accounted for about 40% of revenue last quarter [6]. - Analyst Surinder Thind from Jefferies suggested that even with the adoption of bi-merged scoring, Fair Isaac's earnings per share might only be impacted by a maximum of 16%, indicating a potential buying opportunity [7].

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Equifax (EFX) . Shares have added about 3.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Equifax due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?It turns ou ...

Core Viewpoint - Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) stock has experienced a significant decline, dropping over 15% in one day and nearly 23% over two days, with a total decrease of about 30% from its December highs [1][2] Financial Performance - FICO's revenue growth is approximately 14%, which has improved from around 10% in previous years, but this growth does not justify the high valuation of 60 times cash flow [2][6] - The stock is currently trading at about $1,704 per share, reflecting a cash flow yield of approximately 1.6% [1] Valuation Concerns - FICO's high valuation is attributed to expanding margins, with operating and cash flow margins increasing from around 32% to nearly 40% [3] - The stock's high multiple is compared unfavorably to Nvidia, which trades at 50 times cash flow and has shown substantial revenue growth [1][2] Market Position and Pricing Power - FICO's pricing power is under scrutiny due to concerns raised by the Federal Housing and Finance Agency (FHFA), which may limit its ability to increase prices further [4][6] - FICO's monopoly-like position in the credit scoring market has allowed it to raise prices, but this may not be sustainable moving forward [4][6] Future Outlook - Revenue growth for FICO is expected to slow, and margins may compress, leading to a valuation more in line with other companies experiencing similar revenue growth [6] - The potential for increased lending activity, particularly in personal loans and mortgages, could positively impact FICO's revenues if market conditions improve [8][9] Comparative Analysis - The comparison of FICO with other high-valuation stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft serves to highlight the risk-reward tradeoff for investors considering FICO [9][10] - FICO's current valuation is deemed high relative to its growth prospects, suggesting that investors may need to reassess their expectations [10]

Mr. Market's restlessness and agitation keep stirring stocks. After seeing the main indices sharply fall to then recover, it is now the turn of a surprising company: Fair Isaac Corporation (NYSE: FICO ).I focus on long term growth and dividend growth investing. I follow both the US and the European stock markets, looking for undervalued stock and/or for high quality dividend growing companies that provide me with cash to reinvest. Over time, I have come to realize that profitability is a much safer driver o ...

Core Viewpoint - Moody's downgraded the U.S. government's credit rating from "Aaa" to "Aa1," marking it as the last major credit rating agency to do so, following S&P Global and Fitch [1][2] Group 1: Credit Rating Downgrade - The downgrade reflects concerns over growing fiscal deficits and elevated total debt, with the U.S. running over a $1.8 trillion deficit in fiscal year 2024 and having over $36 trillion in total debt [3][4] - Moody's indicated that the U.S. fiscal performance is likely to deteriorate compared to its past and other highly rated sovereigns, with expectations of larger deficits as entitlement spending rises [3][4] Group 2: Future Projections - Fiscal deficits could reach 9% of GDP by 2035, up from the current 6.4%, while total debt is projected to rise to approximately 134% of GDP, surpassing levels seen during World War II [4] - Annual interest payments on the debt, which accounted for 18% of revenue in 2024, are expected to increase to 30% by 2035 [4] Group 3: Legislative Impact - House Republicans' proposal to make temporary tax cuts permanent could add an estimated $4 trillion to the fiscal deficit over the next decade, excluding interest payments [6] Group 4: Market Reactions - Historical responses of the S&P 500 to previous credit downgrades show initial sell-offs followed by recoveries, indicating that the market may not react severely to the downgrade [7][10] - The muted market response to the recent downgrade may be attributed to prior warnings from Moody's and the established understanding of the U.S. debt situation [11]

Even by the standards of a lousy Wednesday for stocks in general, Fair Isaac (FICO -15.62%) was a standout in the wrong kind of way. For the second trading session in a row, the credit scoring specialist took a real blow to its stock price, which tumbled by almost 16% on the day. That percentage figure was 10 times the 1.6% decline of the S&P 500 (^GSPC -1.61%). Fair Isaac not fair?Investors who thought Fair Isaac stock would bounce back from its 8% drubbing on Tuesday were badly mistaken. That's because Bi ...