Gold (GC=F), silver (SI=F), and copper (HG=F) climbed to new highs on Wednesday, extending an explosive rally to mark the first two weeks of January. Gold (GC=F) futures hit a high of $4,650 per troy ounce, marking a 5% year-to-date gain. Wall Street analysts upped their forecasts in recent days given the recent US intervention in Venezuela, geopolitical tensions with Iran, and growing questions about Federal Reserve independence. “We see bullion reaching USD 5,000/oz in the coming months amid hedging d ...

Shares of Heliostar Metals Ltd. ( HSTXF ), listed on the US OTCQX, are showing a clear upward trend. Because we believe this sentiment is at leastAlberto holds a Master's degree in Business Economics. During his academic career he acquired an extensive managerial and economic background, with a solid quantitative basis. He covers all sectors and the different types of stocks. Essentially describes a useful investment strategy that fits the profile of any investor, whether they are dividend investors or inte ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current sentiment and positioning of funds in the U.S. futures market for precious metals, highlighting shifts in net long and short positions, particularly for gold, silver, platinum, and copper, as well as the implications of changing interest rate expectations on metal prices [2][28]. Group 1: Fund Positioning and Market Sentiment - As of January 6, net long positions for all metals except gold and copper have increased month-over-month, with palladium contracts returning to a net long position after two weeks of net short [2][6]. - The net long position for U.S. gold funds decreased by 2% to 386 tons, marking the lowest level in five weeks [2][6]. - The U.S. copper fund's short position has fallen to the lowest level recorded since 2007, indicating an overly optimistic sentiment in the market [2][16]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations for a rate cut in March have dropped from 49.5% to 29.9%, and for April from 62.5% to 42.4%, with the first rate cut not expected to exceed 50% probability until June [2][28]. - The delay in the Fed's rate cut timeline may serve as a reason for potential softening in precious metal prices [2][28]. Group 3: Precious Metals Performance - The net long position for U.S. silver funds increased by 6% to 2,746 tons, the highest level in two weeks, despite a drop in long positions to the lowest since October 2013 [6][8]. - Platinum funds saw an 80% increase in net long positions, reaching 11 tons, the highest in two weeks, while short positions fell to the lowest level in 133 weeks [6][10]. - Gold prices have risen by 64.4% despite a contraction in net long positions, indicating strong physical demand outpacing futures market dynamics [14][16]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The article notes that the copper market has been influenced by expectations of strong demand due to AI and new technologies, leading to price increases and historical highs [16][30]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the gold-to-mining stock ratio as a forward-looking indicator for gold prices [19][21]. - The silver-to-gold ratio is currently near historical averages, suggesting potential volatility in both directions [24][26].

Core Insights - The primary narrative in the metal commodity sector for 2025 is the significant price increase of gold and silver, with gold prices rising approximately 70% and silver prices escalating around 169% [1] Group 1 - Gold prices have experienced a substantial increase of about 70% [1] - Silver prices have surged dramatically, with an increase of approximately 169% [1]

Core Viewpoint - CANEX Metals Inc. has received significant support for its Offer to acquire all outstanding common shares of Gold Basin Resources Corporation and has extended the Offer deadline to January 19, 2026 due to challenges faced by Gold Basin shareholders in depositing their shares [1] Group 1 - 47% of the shares of Gold Basin have been deposited to the Offer [1]

Core Viewpoint - The surge in precious metals prices is expected to be capped in 2026, with forecasts indicating a potential decline from current all-time highs due to waning investor demand [1][2]. Group 1: Price Forecasts - Capital Economics predicts that copper prices will decrease from approximately $13,200 per ton to around $10,500 per ton by the end of 2026, representing a 20% decline [1]. - Gold is expected to end 2026 at about $3,500 per ounce, indicating a 21% decrease from current levels [2]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The recent price increases in metals like silver and copper are attributed to a supply-demand imbalance, with rising demand from sectors such as data centers and AI infrastructure [3]. - High prices are likely to encourage more recycling of metals and increase overall supply, which may lead to price normalization [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators - Analysts note that some metals, including gold, are showing signs of being overbought, with gold's Relative Strength Index indicating it is the most overbought it has ever been [6]. - Silver is also reported to be "overheated," as indicated by its RSI reading [7]. - The excitement among investors is expected to fade, leading to a potential slowdown in the rally of precious and industrial metals [8].

Group 1 - Alcoa has been downgraded to underweight due to valuation concerns, indicating a potential overvaluation in the current market [1] - JPMorgan maintains an overweight rating on Freeport-McMoRan, suggesting confidence in the company's growth prospects despite market fluctuations [1] Group 2 - The decision to downgrade Alcoa reflects broader market trends and investor sentiment regarding aluminum prices and production costs [1] - Freeport-McMoRan's strong performance in copper production and pricing is highlighted as a key factor for JPMorgan's positive outlook [1]

Core Insights - China's metal markets are experiencing a speculative frenzy, with trading values in Shanghai increasing by over 260% year-on-year, driven by investments in commodities such as copper, nickel, and lithium [1][2]. Trading Activity - Open interest in the six base metals traded in Shanghai has reached a record high, indicating strong investor sentiment amid expectations of global supply tightness and resilient industrial demand [2]. - The total turnover for the six base metals contracts, along with gold and silver futures, hit 37.1 trillion yuan (over $5 trillion) in December, marking a significant increase in trading activity [3]. - December 29 was noted as the busiest trading day for copper in over a decade, reflecting heightened market activity [3]. Market Drivers - The surge in metal prices is supported by monetary easing from central banks, which typically encourages investment in non-yielding assets like metals [4]. - A weaker dollar is also contributing positively to the market, as investors engage in the so-called debasement trade [4]. - Significant macro allocation flows into commodities have been observed, with some equity funds betting on the rise of commodity futures alongside stock prices [5]. Price Movements - Nickel prices increased nearly 6% on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, while aluminum contracts reached their highest levels since 2021. Copper prices surpassed 100,000 yuan per ton, despite some bearish indicators such as rising inventories [6]. Other Exchanges - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange, which includes contracts for lithium, palladium, platinum, and silicon, recorded a turnover of approximately 5.6 trillion yuan in December, more than six times higher than the same month in 2024 [7]. Market Concerns - There are concerns regarding whether the rapid price increases have been excessive, with some new capital being speculative in nature. The market is expected to test trading skills, as easy profits may not be achievable simply by holding positions [8].

Summary of Global Commodities Outlook for 2026 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the commodities sector, particularly energy, CleanTech, and utilities, as presented at the 2026 Energy, CleanTech & Utilities Conference by Goldman Sachs Global Commodities Research. Key Points Oil Market Outlook - Oil prices declined by 14% year-over-year in 2025, driven by broad-based supply strength leading to large inventory builds, which are expected to continue into 2026 [6][9] - Geopolitical risks present potential price volatility, but the net outlook remains downward [11] - Long-term projections indicate that demand will grow through 2040, but supply is expected to slow down from 2027, introducing downside price risks from technological advancements and geopolitical supply boosts [14][17] Natural Gas Market Outlook - The global LNG market is anticipated to be oversupplied, which will narrow the price spread between the US and Europe [21] - LNG exports are expected to increase by 3.0 Bcf/d in 2026 and 1.4 Bcf/d in 2027, necessitating additional production growth [24] - Haynesville production led growth in 2025, but challenges are expected in 2026 due to a low rig count [27] - The risk to the 2026 Henry Hub forecast is skewed to the downside due to strong production [30] Copper Market Outlook - The report identifies copper as a favored industrial metal, with a forecasted price of $11,400 for 2026, supported by a deficit outside the US [48] - The copper-aluminium price ratio is expected to reach new highs due to supply constraints and increased demand from electrification [59] Gold Market Outlook - A rally in gold prices is anticipated, with central banks and ETF investors competing for limited bullion, potentially driving prices up by 14% to $4,900 by December 2026 [53][59] Trade Recommendations - Long positions in gold and copper are recommended, while short positions in Brent and European natural gas are suggested due to expected market surpluses [59] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of considering geopolitical factors and technological advancements in the commodities market, which could significantly impact supply and demand dynamics [11][17] - The potential slowdown in the US's AI race with China may also influence energy demand and market conditions [40][46] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and forecasts from the Goldman Sachs Global Commodities Outlook for 2026, highlighting the trends and potential investment opportunities within the commodities sector.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current sentiment in the precious metals market based on the CFTC data, highlighting the potential volatility in asset prices due to uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's leadership and interest rate decisions in 2026 [2][29]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - The CFTC data indicates that the market sentiment towards precious metals is currently optimistic, with over half of surveyed retail investors believing that silver prices could reach $100 by 2026 [2][29]. - The article warns that while such targets may seem reasonable, price movements may not be linear, and participants should be cautious of leverage and potential losses [2][29]. - The article notes that both the platinum-to-copper and silver-to-copper ratios are expected to rise sharply in 2025, indicating that copper prices may lag behind precious metals [2][29]. Group 2: CFTC Data Insights - As of December 16, the net long positions for various metals show a mixed trend: gold's net long positions increased by 7.6%, while silver's decreased by 13.2% [4][8]. - The net long positions for platinum increased by 11.9%, while copper's net positions turned positive after being negative for a long time [11][14]. - The article highlights that the sentiment towards copper is overly optimistic, as short positions have reached their lowest level since 2007, suggesting a potential market correction [2][17]. Group 3: Interest Rate Outlook - The market anticipates a near 50% chance of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March 2026, with expectations of further cuts in April [22][29]. - There is speculation that the Fed may begin raising rates again in 2027, which could impact the ongoing commodity bull market [3][29]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the Fed's actions and the potential implications for asset prices, particularly in the context of inflationary pressures [30][29]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - The article suggests that investors should be cautious in the first half of 2026 due to expected price volatility and the need for careful leverage management [2][29]. - It also mentions that the gold-to-North American mining stock ratio has remained stable, indicating that mining stocks have underperformed relative to gold prices over the past few years [20][21]. - The article advises tracking overseas mining stock prices as a forward-looking tool to gauge market sentiment and potential price movements in gold [21][29].