涨疯了。 今年，战略稀土金属原料氧化钇的价格暴涨。 从今年初的每公斤6美元，到6月中旬涨到每公斤11美元。 到11月底，99.999%纯度的氧化钇欧洲到岸价暴涨至每公斤220到320美元。 在不到一年时间里，涨幅最高达到50倍！ 超九成的氧化钇靠进口的美国，这次要被卡脖子了吗？ 01 少但重要 钇（Yttrium）是一种银白色金属，原子序数是39，元素符号为Y。 | | 7 | | | | 6 | | 55 | | | 5 | | | | | 4 | | 19 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (223) | fang 仿 | Fr | 132. 91 | 艳 | sè | Cs | | 85. 47 | 彻 | rú | Rb | | 39.1 | स | jiă | K | | 22. 99 | | | | | 88 | | | | 56 | | | | | | | | | | 20 | | | 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The decline in USA Rare Earth's stock is attributed to a bearish market sentiment and a new government partnership that does not involve the company, leading to investor concerns about its future prospects [1][4][7]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of 2:50 p.m. ET, shares of USA Rare Earth are down 11.7%, trading at $14.95, with a market cap of $2.3 billion [2][5]. - The stock has experienced a day's range between $14.93 and $17.43, and a 52-week range from $5.56 to $43.98 [6]. Group 2: Government Partnerships - The U.S. government has announced a partnership with Korea Zinc Co. for a zinc smelter project, contributing approximately $1.94 billion, which has raised concerns for USA Rare Earth investors [4]. - Previous partnerships with other companies in the rare earth sector, such as MP Materials and Lithium Americas, had led to speculation that USA Rare Earth would also receive government support, but recent developments have diminished this optimism [6][7]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Despite the current downturn, some analysts suggest that the nearing completion of USA Rare Earth's rare earth magnet production facility may present a buying opportunity for investors with higher risk tolerance [8].

2025年12月15日稀土市场行情： 根据包头稀土产品交易所显示，今日稀土主流产品价格小幅调整。氧化镨钕均价57.84万元/吨，微跌 0.06万元/吨；金属镨钕均价70.24万元/吨，微跌0.21万元/吨；氧化镝均价137.75万元/吨，上涨0.41万元/ 吨；氧化铽均价629.14万元/吨，下跌1.74万元/吨。今日询价氧化钕、氧化镨、氧化镧铈、氧化铕、氧 化钇等产品成交信息较少，请慎重参考。周初稀土市场延续此前走势，镨钕产品价格继续保持弱稳运 行，除少数刚需成交，市场交投有限。中重稀土市场保持少量刚需成交，近期氧化钇活跃度有所增长。 整体来看，稀土市场整体氛围偏淡，下游需求变化较小，近期稀土价格或继续保持弱稳走势。 A股市场部分稀土永磁概念股行情表现（2025年12月15日） | 0人气龙头 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 厦门钨业 | 陆股通增 | 昨日连板 | 涨跌幅 流通值 | | 600549 | | | +2.29% 604.63亿 | | 入选理由:中重稀土开采量A股第二,2022年离子型稀土 | | | | | (中重)的开采控制量为3440吨,市占率 ...

Core Insights - MP Materials (MP) shares have increased by 98.9% over the past six months, significantly outperforming the industry growth of 11.8%, the Zacks Basic Materials sector's rise of 11.8%, and the S&P 500's gain of 15.9% [2] - The stock's surge is attributed to key developments, including agreements with the U.S. Department of War (DoW) to enhance the domestic rare earth magnet supply chain, a long-term deal with Apple for recycled rare earth magnets, and strong production figures in Q2 and Q3 of 2025 [3][7] Stock Performance - MP Materials has outperformed Lynas Rare Earths Limited (LYSDY), which saw a 49.5% increase, but has underperformed Energy Fuels (UUUU), which gained 175.6% in the same timeframe [5][6] Strategic Partnerships - In July, MP Materials secured a long-term agreement with Apple to supply rare earth magnets made from recycled materials, developed through advanced recycling technology [9] - MP also partnered with the DoW to expedite the development of a domestic rare earth magnet supply chain and announced a joint venture with the Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Maaden) to establish a rare earth refinery in Saudi Arabia [10] Production Numbers - MP Materials reported record neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) production of 721 metric tons in Q3, a 51% increase year-over-year, surpassing the previous record of 597 metric tons in Q2 [11] - Total NdPr production for the first nine months of 2025 reached 1,881 metric tons, 114% higher than the previous year, exceeding the full-year 2024 target of 1,294 metric tons [12] - Rare Earth Oxide (REO) production decreased by 4% year-over-year to 13,254 metric tons in Q3, marking the second-highest quarter in the company's history [13] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects MP Materials' revenues to grow by 13.66% year-over-year in 2025 and by 79% in 2026, with current earnings estimates indicating a loss of 21 cents per share for 2025 and a potential turnaround to earnings of 69 cents per share in 2026 [14][16] Valuation Metrics - MP Materials is trading at a forward 12-month price/sales multiple of 25.41X, significantly higher than the industry's 1.44X, indicating a premium valuation [17] - Comparatively, Energy Fuels trades at 40.39X, while Lynas is at 11.11X [18] Long-term Outlook - MP Materials operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine and Processing Facility, the only large-scale rare earth mining and processing site in North America, essential for clean-tech technologies [19] - The company is set to benefit from a multibillion-dollar investment package and long-term commitments from the DoW, including the construction of a second domestic magnet manufacturing facility [21] - The partnership with Apple is expected to significantly enhance MP's recycling platform and magnet production capabilities [21] Conclusion - MP Materials' strong positioning in the U.S. supply chain, operational ramp-up, and strategic partnerships suggest a robust growth trajectory [22] - Current investors are encouraged to hold shares, while new investors may consider waiting for a more favorable entry point due to premium valuations and recent downward earnings estimate revisions [23]

Group 1: Company Overview - MP Materials Corp. produces rare earth materials in the Western Hemisphere and operates in two segments: Materials and Magnetics [4] Group 2: Recent Developments - Morgan Stanley upgraded MP Materials to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target increase to $71, citing the unresolved critical mineral dependency issues in the US despite China's pause on rare earth restrictions [1] - The company reported record NDPR oxide production of 721 metric tons in Q3 2025, representing a 21% sequential increase and a 51% year-over-year increase [2] - MP Materials is set to start commissioning its heavy rare earth circuit in mid-2026, which will enable the production of 10,000 metric tons of high-performance NDFEB magnets annually [2] Group 3: Strategic Partnerships - A significant partnership with Apple has begun, involving a $40 million prepayment for the production of magnets from recycled materials, with a total of $200 million expected as the project progresses [3] - The next payment from Apple is anticipated in Q4, with initial magnet volumes targeting mid-2027 and recycling expected shortly thereafter [3] - The long-term Purchase Price Agreement with the Department of War is expected to provide earnings visibility and help the company return to profitability in Q4 2025 [3]

Investment Opportunities - The Trump administration is expected to alter approximately $7 trillion in government spending, creating new investment opportunities [2] - The U.S. government is committed to investing heavily in artificial intelligence (AI), as indicated by the document "Winning the Race: America's AI Action Plan" [3] - Singh identifies AI-related asset classes, including data centers, semiconductors, and infrastructure, as key areas for investment [4] Recommended ETFs - First Trust Cloud Computing ETF (SKYY) is recommended for exposure to cloud computing infrastructure [4] - Global X's Data Center and Digital Infrastructure ETF (DTCR) is suggested for those interested in U.S. data centers [4] - iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) provides broad access to semiconductor investments [4] - Additional AI application ETFs include Global X's Robotics and Artificial Intelligence ETF (BOTZ) and Roundhill's Generative AI and Technology ETF (CHAT) [5] Rare Earths Investment - The U.S. government is showing significant interest in rare earths due to China's export restrictions [6] - Recommended ETFs for rare earth investments include VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metal ETF (REMX) and iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF (PICK) [6] - Specific companies highlighted for investment in rare earths are Lynas Rare Earths Limited (LYSDY) and MP Materials Corp. (MP) [7] American Industry and Defense - Investment picks in American industry include SPDR's Industrial Select Sector SPDR FUND (XLI), which focuses on aerospace and defense [8] - Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE) specializes in infrastructure and development companies [8] - Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) is noted as a conservative investment option in the energy sector [8]

Core Insights - The individual has retired after over 43 years in investment research, now operating independently to provide actionable investment insights [1] - The focus is on rules and factor-based equity investing strategies, emphasizing the use of numbers to inspire human intelligence-driven investment stories rather than serving the numbers themselves [1] - The approach combines quantitative analysis with classic fundamental analysis to uncover the true story of companies and their stocks, highlighting the importance of future potential over past data [1] Investment Strategy - The individual has extensive experience covering a wide range of stocks, including large cap, small cap, micro cap, value, growth, and income [1] - Previous roles included managing a high-yield fixed-income fund and conducting research on quantitative asset allocation strategies, which are foundational to modern Robo Advising [1] - The individual has authored two books on stock selection and analysis, showcasing a commitment to investor education [1] Future Outlook - The individual expresses enthusiasm for the new role on Seeking Alpha, inviting feedback and criticism from the audience to improve the content offered [1]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of USA Rare Earth (USAR) highlights the speculative nature of investing in rare-earth companies, particularly due to their sensitivity to political developments and trade negotiations [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - China dominates the rare-earth materials market, producing up to 90% of the world's rare-earth magnets, which gives it a strong bargaining position in trade disputes with the U.S. [2] - The stock of USA Rare Earth saw significant fluctuations, soaring in October due to news of potential new export controls from China, but then crashing by 30.8% in November when China paused these controls [1][5]. Group 2: Company Developments - USA Rare Earth has been focusing on derisking its operations by partnering with suppliers outside of China and acquiring companies like Less Common Metals (LCM) to secure its supply chain [8][9]. - LCM's recent supply agreement with Solvay and Arnold Magnetic Technologies Corporation is expected to generate revenue for USA Rare Earth, further supporting its business model [9]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - The company's unique business model involves manufacturing rare-earth magnets while simultaneously building a supply chain, which may appeal to investors with a higher risk tolerance [6][8]. - Recent positive developments in securing supply agreements and partnerships are seen as steps to make USA Rare Earth more investable for those optimistic about the company's potential [9].

Summary of the US-China Tech Race Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focuses on the ongoing technological competition between the US and China, particularly in the fields of semiconductors and rare earths, which are critical for technological advancement and national security [3][31]. Key Points and Arguments Current State of the Tech Race - The US leads in advanced technologies such as semiconductors, AI frameworks, cloud infrastructure, and quantum computing, while China is catching up in practical applications like physical AI and robotics, and has a strong presence in global installations [5][29][43]. - China is rapidly advancing in technological self-sufficiency, reducing its reliance on Western technologies through policies like the dual circulation strategy [5][45]. US and Chinese Policy Approaches - US policymakers are adopting strategies reminiscent of WWII and the Cold War, focusing on increasing domestic production in sensitive sectors like semiconductors and rare earths [30][62]. - China's approach is characterized by systematic planning and significant financial backing for technology development, with a focus on achieving breakthroughs in "chokehold technologies" [75][84]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The US has a slight edge in the global semiconductor supply chain, but China currently dominates the rare earth supply chain, which is crucial for defense and technology sectors [31][39]. - The semiconductor supply chain is complex, with significant chokepoints that hinder self-sufficiency for any country, although China has the potential to close the gap due to its resources and engineering talent [33][35]. Investment Opportunities - Analysts see compelling investment opportunities in rare earths and Asian tech companies, as both countries continue to develop their own tech stacks [4][37]. - Stocks of leading semiconductor manufacturing and equipment companies have largely priced in US-China tech developments, but ongoing policy efforts could drive price action for Western rare earth mining and refining companies [37][38]. Challenges and Risks - The US faces challenges in maintaining its lead, particularly in AI, as China's semiconductor industry works to overcome hardware chokepoints [5][35]. - China's dominance in rare earths poses a significant threat to the US's ability to develop an independent tech ecosystem, highlighting the need for the US to diversify its supply chains [48][49]. Future Outlook - The tech race may not yield a clear victor, with the US potentially leading in technology development while China excels in global installations and applications [60]. - The geopolitical implications of this tech competition are profound, affecting global systems and economic influence [42][57]. Additional Important Insights - The Gulf countries are expected to play a pivotal role in the tech race due to their energy resources, which are essential for powering technological ambitions [59]. - The technological alignment of other countries, particularly in the Global South, will significantly influence the outcome of the US-China tech race [57][58]. This summary encapsulates the critical discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the US-China tech race, highlighting the competitive landscape, policy approaches, supply chain dynamics, investment opportunities, and future outlook.

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