I wanted to have a closer look at SSAB ( OTCPK:SSABF ) ( OTCPK:SSAAF ) ( OTCPK:SSAAY ), the Sweden-based steel producer, before the company publishes its Q2 results, as I want to be prepared and get a better idea of whatHe is the leader of the investment group European Small Cap Ideas which offers exclusive access to actionable research on appealing Europe-focused investment opportunities not found elsewhere. The a focus is on high-quality ideas in the small-cap space, with emphasis on capital gains and div ...

Core Viewpoint - Algoma Steel Group Inc. has achieved its first steel production at its new electric arc furnace project, marking a significant milestone in its transformation towards producing green steel with a potential reduction in carbon emissions by up to 70 percent [1][2]. Company Overview - Algoma Steel is a leading Canadian producer of hot and cold rolled steel sheet and plate products, based in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario [6]. - The company is a fully integrated producer and key supplier of steel products in North America, recognized for its Direct Strip Production Complex, which is one of the lowest-cost producers of hot rolled sheet steel in the region [6]. Transformation and Innovation - The first steel production from the electric arc furnace (EAF) project is part of Algoma's largest industrial decarbonization initiative in Canada, reflecting years of planning and execution since the project began in November 2021 [3]. - The EAF technology is expected to significantly lower carbon emissions, aligning with the company's commitment to environmental stewardship and recycling [7]. Product Development - All steel produced through the EAFs will be branded as Volta, which aims to deliver the same performance as existing products but with dramatically lower emissions, leveraging Ontario's clean electricity grid [4]. - The introduction of Volta is part of Algoma's strategy to support the growth of a low-carbon economy [4]. Leadership Perspective - The President and CEO of Algoma expressed pride in reaching this critical milestone, emphasizing the company's determination to innovate and lead in the steel industry during a period of trade uncertainty [3].

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Company Overview - Nucor Corporation (NYSE: NUE) is one of the largest steel-producing companies in North America, supplying steel products to various industries including data centers, automotive, and construction [1]. Operational Scale - The company operates in at least 300 facilities, indicating a significant scale of operations within the steel industry [1].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the steel and cement sectors in China, suggesting potential benefits from a more supportive policy environment on supply discipline [1][12][13]. Core Insights - There is a renewed policy focus on addressing supply discipline in China, with a call for a unified national market and a crackdown on excessive competition leading to lower prices [1]. - The report highlights that excess capacity in various industries ranges from 30% to 50%, with specific figures for steel and cement being around 30% to 50% [2][11]. - The potential for executing production cuts in the steel sector is noted, with a target of 50 million tons, which could lead to a significant reduction in crude steel output in the second half of 2025 [13][18]. - The cement sector is also undergoing capacity categorization and is targeting a reduction of unauthorized and energy-intensive capacities, which could improve capacity utilization from 50% to 70% [13][14]. Summary by Sections Supply Side Expectations - The report discusses ongoing policy efforts to discourage overly fierce competition and control output in sectors like hog farming and steel, aiming to reverse price deflation trends [12]. - The clarity of future policy guidance remains uncertain, but discussions suggest a more supportive context for executing supply plans in the steel and cement sectors [13]. Excess Capacity Analysis - Excess capacity is a persistent challenge, with estimates indicating that unauthorized excess clinker capacity in the cement industry exceeds 400 million tons, representing nearly 18% of the industry [14][15]. - The report estimates that additional requirements could lead to a targeted exit of 277 to 377 million tons of clinker capacity, further reducing excess capacity [13]. Market Impact - The report anticipates that the execution of steel production cuts could create a meaningful deficit in the market, similar to conditions observed in the second half of 2021, which previously led to margin expansion and reduced exports [18][19]. - The implied spread from rebar futures suggests a potential margin expansion of nearly RMB 200 per ton in the steel sector, indicating a strong possibility of production cuts [16].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a robust GDP growth forecast for Q2, with expectations of 5.0-5.2% YoY growth, despite anticipated headwinds in H2 [4][32]. Core Insights - The manufacturing sector shows signs of improvement, with NBS manufacturing PMI rising to 49.7 and Caixin PMI increasing to 50.4 in June, indicating a less negative growth momentum [7][10]. - Property sales continue to decline significantly, with 30-city property sales down 10% YoY in June, and top 100 developers' contract sales volume decreasing by 35% YoY [9][19]. - Retail sales growth is expected to moderate to 6% YoY in June, influenced by a low base and earlier promotional activities [23]. - Infrastructure investment growth is projected to cool to 6% YoY due to a high base effect, while overall fixed asset investment (FAI) growth is anticipated at 3% YoY [20][32]. Summary by Sections Economic Overview - Q2 GDP growth is expected to remain robust at 5.0-5.2% YoY, supported by front-loading of exports and earlier government stimulus [4][32]. - CPI is projected to edge up marginally to 0% YoY, while PPI remains in deep deflation at -3.3% YoY [3][29]. Manufacturing Sector - NBS manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2ppt to 49.7, with improvements in new orders and production indices [7][10]. - Caixin manufacturing PMI rose by 2.1ppt to 50.4, indicating stronger production and new orders [7][10]. Property Market - 30-city property sales declined further to -10% YoY in June, with significant drops in both tier 1 and tier 3 cities [9][19]. - The contract sales volume of the top 100 developers fell by 35% YoY in June, reflecting ongoing challenges in the property sector [9][19]. Retail and Consumer Trends - Retail sales growth is expected to moderate to 6% YoY in June, influenced by earlier promotional activities and a low base [23]. - Auto retail sales growth picked up to 24% YoY in June, driven by trade-in subsidies and a low base effect [38]. Investment and Infrastructure - Overall FAI growth is projected at 3% YoY in June, with infrastructure investment cooling to 6% YoY due to a high base [20][32]. - Manufacturing investment growth is expected to hold up at 7-8% YoY, supported by fiscal subsidies for equipment upgrading [20].

Core Viewpoint - ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT) shares have increased approximately 39.1% over the past three months, indicating strong momentum and positive prospects for investors to consider adding the stock to their portfolios [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - MT has outperformed its industry over the past year, with shares rising 41.9% compared to a 23.6% decline in the industry [2][8] - The company’s stock has shown a significant rally of 39.1% in the last three months, reflecting strong investor confidence [1] Group 2: Earnings Growth - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ArcelorMittal's earnings for 2025 is projected at $4.23 per share, suggesting a year-over-year growth of 43.4% [3][8] - MT reported earnings of $1.16 per share for the first quarter of 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 71 cents [4] Group 3: Strategic Expansion - ArcelorMittal is enhancing its steel production capacity with a focus on higher-value offerings, particularly in the automotive steel sector by introducing advanced high-strength steels (AHSS) [5] - The company plans to build a fully owned non-grain-oriented electrical steel (NOES) plant in Alabama to meet the growing demand for premium electrical steel and to provide a reliable domestic supply [9] Group 4: Shareholder Value - ArcelorMittal is committed to enhancing shareholder value through share repurchase initiatives and has increased its base dividend by 10% to 55 cents per share [10] - The company plans to distribute at least 50% of its post-dividend free cash flow to shareholders via ongoing share buybacks, reinforcing its commitment to returning value [11]

Trade Policy - Vietnam initiated an anti-dumping duty on Chinese hot-rolled steel, with the document surfacing in February and an expected effective date of March 7 for 120 days [1] Import Data - Vietnam imported approximately 8800 thousand tons of hot-rolled steel from January to September of the previous year [1] - 72% of Vietnam's hot-rolled steel imports during that period originated from China [1]

Trade Policy - Vietnam's Ministry of Trade imposes anti-dumping duties on hot-rolled steel from China, ranging from 23.10% to 27.83% [1] - The anti-dumping duties take effect on July 6, 2025, and are valid for 5 years [1]

Core Viewpoint - Cleveland-Cliffs stands to benefit significantly from President Trump's recent steel tariff increase, which has led to a notable rise in its stock price, despite the company's recent financial struggles [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - President Trump reinstated a 25% tariff on all foreign steel on February 10, 2024, and subsequently doubled it to 50% effective June 4, 2024 [2][4]. - The new tariff regime includes strict reporting requirements for foreign importers, with severe penalties for non-compliance, which is expected to favor American steel producers like Cleveland-Cliffs [4]. - The aggressive tariff strategy aims to bolster American manufacturing, positioning Cleveland-Cliffs as a key beneficiary due to its status as the largest producer of flat-rolled steel in the U.S. [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Cleveland-Cliffs has experienced declining annual revenue over the past two years, reporting a net loss of $754 million on nearly $19.2 billion in revenue for 2024 [5]. - The company has been unprofitable in four of its last five quarters, indicating ongoing financial challenges despite the favorable tariff environment [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Risks - Investor enthusiasm for Cleveland-Cliffs has surged, with the stock trading over 30% higher following the tariff announcement, reflecting confidence in the company's potential to capitalize on the new tariffs [1]. - However, there are concerns regarding the sustainability of the 50% tariff, as negotiations with countries like Mexico could lead to exemptions that would diminish Cleveland-Cliffs' competitive advantage [6][8]. - The potential for tariff reductions in future negotiations raises uncertainty about the long-term benefits for Cleveland-Cliffs and the broader American steel industry [7][8].