Market Performance - Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty fell sharply by nearly 1 per cent, marking the fourth consecutive session of decline due to renewed concerns over potential US tariff hikes and widespread selling pressure in global markets [1][7] - The 30-share BSE Sensex dropped 780.18 points, or 0.92 per cent, closing at 84,180.96, with an intraday low of 84,110.10, down 851.04 points or 1 per cent [3] - The 50-share NSE Nifty tumbled 263.90 points, or 1.01 per cent, to settle at 25,876.85 [3] Sector Performance - Significant losses were observed in metal, oil & gas, and commodity stocks, exacerbated by ongoing foreign fund outflows [3] - Among the 30-Sensex firms, major laggards included Larsen & Toubro, Tech Mahindra, Tata Consultancy Services, Reliance Industries, Tata Steel, and Trent, while gainers included Eternal, ICICI Bank, Bajaj Finance, and Bharat Electronics [4] Geopolitical Factors - US President Donald Trump supported a sanctions bill that could impose 500 per cent tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil, aiming to leverage pressure on nations like China and India to cease buying cheap oil from Moscow [6] - US Senator Lindsey Graham indicated that the legislation would provide the White House with "tremendous leverage" against countries such as China, India, and Brazil [6] Global Market Context - In Asian markets, South Korea's Kospi index increased, while Japan's Nikkei 225, Shanghai's SSE Composite, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng indices declined [8] - Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose by 0.75 per cent to $60.42 per barrel [8]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the macroeconomic outlook for the United States in 2026, focusing on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, labor market conditions, and consumer spending trends. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Outlook for 2026**: The expectation is for a bumpy year with a projected real GDP growth of 2% and a federal funds rate forecasted to decrease, with potential rate cuts in the second half of the year [9][13][19]. 2. **Labor Market Weakness**: The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate expected to rise to 4.5% and the broad measure of labor underutilization (U-6) trending higher [11][19][21]. 3. **Inflation Concerns**: Despite expectations for rate cuts, there are concerns about strong inflation gains in the early months of 2026, which could complicate the Federal Reserve's decision-making [15][49]. 4. **Consumer Spending Dynamics**: Consumer spending is currently outpacing income growth, with real disposable income growth stagnating while real personal consumption expenditures are increasing [38][39]. 5. **Impact of Fiscal Policy**: The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) is anticipated to provide significant tax refunds, which may support consumer spending and the labor market, but reliance on this could pose risks [21][49]. 6. **Investment Trends**: Investment growth is concentrated in software and AI-related sectors, while other areas are flat or declining. A stumble in the AI sector could have significant negative implications for the economy [46][49]. 7. **Monetary Policy Uncertainty**: The Federal Reserve faces challenges in balancing inflation control with labor market support, especially with a new Chair expected to take office [30][49]. Additional Important Content 1. **Central Bank Independence**: There are concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, particularly in light of potential political pressures and upcoming legal challenges [29][33]. 2. **Volatility in Economic Sentiment**: The macroeconomic environment is expected to be characterized by volatility and uncertainty, with potential for sudden shifts in sentiment impacting markets [28][32]. 3. **Upcoming Events**: Key events in 2026, including midterm elections and potential government funding issues, could influence economic policy and market conditions [12][36]. 4. **Long-term Projections**: The long-term outlook suggests a structural productivity acceleration beginning in 2027-2028, but the immediate future remains uncertain [9][19]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and arguments presented in the conference call, highlighting the complex interplay between economic growth, labor market conditions, inflation, and monetary policy.

Core Viewpoint - Groupama has issued EUR 600 million in fixed-rate Restricted Tier1 perpetual notes to optimize its capital structure, taking advantage of favorable market conditions, with strong investor interest leading to oversubscription by more than four times [1]. Groupama's New Issue Details - Issuer: Groupama Assurances Mutuelles [2] - Rating of the notes: BBB by Fitch Ratings [2] - Issue amount: EUR 600 million [2] - Pricing date: 7 January 2026 [2] - Settlement date: 14 January 2026 [2] - Coupon: 5.750 percent [2] - ISIN: FR0014014IQ4 [2] - Joint bookrunners include J.P. Morgan, Citigroup, Crédit Agricole CIB, Morgan Stanley, Natixis, and Société Générale CIB [2] - The new notes will be traded on Euronext Paris [2] Additional Information - The prospectus for the new notes will be available on Groupama's website and the website of the Autorité des marchés financiers [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The market effectively absorbed new bond supplies, with strong demand for 5-year duration bonds, while lower-yielding front-end papers faced selling pressure [2]. - Asian IG credits tightened by 1 - 3bps this morning, driven by flows into 5-year duration issues and FRNs with spreads over 90 [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Desk Comments - The new CASHLD 6.25 Perp rose 0.9pt from RO at 99.965; the new FRESHK 29 tightened 10bps from RO at T+178; existing FRESHK 26 - 28s tightened 5bps; EIBKOR 29 - 36s opened 1 - 2bps tighter but retraced and closed flat to 1bp wider; RESONA 31, SWIPRO 31, MITHCC 31s, CLFCAP 31 and BAYFIM 29 tightened 3 - 6bps; new NAB 29 - 31s and STANLN 30 - 37s traded 1 - 2bps inside ROs; EBIUH 31 rose 0.4pt while EBIUH 29 closed around RO; KSA 56s had profit - taking selling and KSA 36s closed 0.1pt higher [2]. - In the secondary market, there was demand for higher - spread FRNs of EU/Chinese/Japanese banks; Japanese/Yankee insurance subs, AT1s, and HYSAN Perps rose 0.3pt; NWDEVL/VDNWDL complex moved 0.2pt lower to 0.7pt higher; EHICARs were down 0.2 - 0.6pt; Macau gaming complex moved 0.1pt lower to 0.2pt higher; VNKRLE 27 - 29 dropped 2.6 - 2.8pts; FUTLN 28/FTLNHD 26 - 27 were unchanged to 0.1pt lower; VLLPM 27 - 29 rose 1.3 - 1.9pts; INDYIJ 29s rose 0.3pt; MEDCIJ 26 - 30s were unchanged to 0.2pt lower [3]. - PMBROV 30/NUFAU 30/EHICAR 26 were 0.7 - 0.9pt lower; LNGFOR 28 27 - 28 were 0.6 - 0.8pt higher; SJMHOLs were unchanged and other Macau gaming bonds were unchanged to 0.1pt lower; TOPTBs/PTTGCs were unchanged to 0.1pt higher [4]. Last Trading Day's Top Movers - Top Performers: CFAMCI 4.95 11/07/47 rose 2.4, VLLPM 7 1/4 07/20/27 rose 1.9, VLLPM 9 3/8 07/29/29 rose 1.3, CHGDNU 4.8 09/11/48 rose 1.1, NWDEVL 5 7/8 06/16/27 rose 0.7 [5]. - Top Underperformers: VNKRLE 3.975 11/09/27 dropped 2.8, VNKRLE 3 1/2 11/12/29 dropped 2.6, FZSZJJ 7 12/27/27 dropped 1.3, EHICAR 12 09/26/27 dropped 0.6, GWFOOD 3.258 10/29/30 dropped 0.5 [5]. Macro News Recap - On Wednesday, S&P was down 0.34%, Dow was down 0.94%, and Nasdaq was up 0.16%. US Dec'25 ADP Nonfarm Employment change was +41k (lower than expected +49k), ISM Non - Manufacturing PMI was 54.5 (higher than forecast 52.2), and Crude Oil Inventories were -3.932mn (lower than expected -1.2mn). UST yield was lower, with 2/5/10/30 year yields at 3.47%/3.70%/4.15%/4.82% [7]. Desk Analyst Comments SJMHOL - The FV of the new SJMHOL 31 is expected to be low - mid 6% vs IPT of 6.875%. The net proceeds will fund a tender offer for USD500mn SJMHOL 4.5 01/27/26 at par and for general corporate purposes. The new bond is puttable at par under certain conditions and has a Change of Control put at 101%. Holders of SJMHOL 26 subscribing to the new bond may get priority acceptance and preferential allocation. The tender offer expires on 12 Jan'26 at 4pm London Time [8]. - As of Sep'25, SJM had HKD3.4bn cash and short - term deposits and HKD2.7bn undrawn facilities. Its LTM adj. property EBITDA was HKD3.7bn. Budgeted capex was HKD2bn in 2025, HKD1.5 - 1.8bn in 2026, and below HKD1bn in 2027. Moody's/Fitch changed the outlook to negative and affirmed Ba3/BB - rating. Eight of nine satellite casinos ceased operation by 2025, and SJM acquired L'Arc Hotel for HKD1.75bn in Dec'25. The firm is neutral on SJMHOLs and prefers MPELs/STCITYs [9]. TOPTB - The FV of the new PerpNC5.25 is expected to be low 6% vs IPT at 6.625%. The coupon resets in Apr'31, steps up by 25bps in Apr'36, and another 75bps in Apr'51. Coupon payment is cumulative and can be deferred, with restrictions on shareholder distributions [13]. - Proceeds will fund a tender offer for up to USD550mn of 5 USD bonds. An early tender premium of 5pts is provided for tenders on or before 20 Jan'26 5pm EST [14]. - Thai Oil is a leading integrated refining and petrochemical company in Thailand, with a refining capacity of about 275k barrels per day (c22% of total in Thailand). PTT and PTT Oil and Retail are its main customers and PTT is the main feedstock supplier [15]. Offshore Asia New Issues Priced - Riyad Bank issued USD1000mn 10NC5 bonds with a 5.805% coupon at T+210, rated -/BBB -/BBB [20]. Pipeline - Korea Housing Finance Corporation plans to issue 3yr/5yr bonds, sized in USD, with coupons of SOFR+77/CT5+63, rated Aa2/AA - [21]. - SJM International Limited plans to issue 5NC2 bonds in USD with a 6.875% coupon, rated B1/-/BB [21]. - Thaioil Treasury Center Company Ltd plans to issue PerpNC5.25 bonds in USD with a 6.625% coupon, rated Ba2/BB -/- [21]. Onshore Primary Issuances - Yesterday, 79 credit bonds were issued with an amount of RMB64bn. Month - to - date, 258 credit bonds were issued for a total of RMB205bn, a 23.9% yoy decrease [26]. - Dalian Wanda Commercial sold Changde Wanda Property; Emperor International shareholders approved a HKD1.16bn sale of a Hong Kong commercial building to OCBC; Minmetals Land will repurchase USD251.174mn of MINMET 4.95 07/22/26; New World Development expects to redeem 2026 - 2027 bonds with internal cash after selling a project for HKD1.16bn; China Vanke will hold a noteholders' meeting on 21 Jan'26 for RMB3.7bn 22WankeMTN005 notes to vote on maturity extension [26].

Core Insights - The pension financial products have evolved into a significant component of the third pillar of retirement planning, with a projected scale exceeding 100 billion yuan by the end of 2025, reaching 106.3 billion yuan [1][2] - The average annualized return for pension financial products in 2025 is expected to be 3.94%, with 10 products exceeding 5%, indicating a robust performance compared to traditional financial products [1][2] - The industry is shifting focus from scale expansion to enhancing capabilities, facing challenges such as maintaining yield resilience in a declining interest rate environment and overcoming product homogenization [1][6] Market Performance - By the end of 2025, over half of the pension financial products are expected to achieve annualized returns above 4%, with two products exceeding 6% [2] - The largest product, "Zhaoyin Wealth Management's Zhaorui Yiyang 3," has a scale of 101.35 billion yuan, making it the only product exceeding 10 billion yuan [3] - A total of 51 products are available in the market, with 7 products having scales over 5 billion yuan, collectively accounting for nearly half of the total market size [2][3] Product Characteristics - The majority of products are "fixed income plus" types, primarily based on bonds and other fixed-income assets, with a focus on risk management [3] - Most products have a five-year closed period to encourage long-term investment and mitigate short-term market fluctuations [3] - The first batch of pilot products will end their five-year closed period by the end of 2026, serving as a critical test for the industry [4] Future Challenges - The industry faces the dual challenge of generating sustainable returns in a low-interest-rate environment and addressing product homogenization [6] - Strategies for overcoming these challenges include expanding alternative asset allocations and optimizing investment strategies to enhance returns [6][7] - The future development of the pension financial market will require a shift from competition based on individual products to an ecosystem approach that leverages unique resources and capabilities [7]

Group 1 - Apple announced that JPMorgan Chase will replace Goldman Sachs as the issuer of the Apple Card, with the transition expected to take up to 24 months [1] - The Apple Card will continue to utilize the Mastercard network for payments, and there will be no immediate changes for consumers, including those applying for new cards [1] - JPMorgan expects to acquire over $20 billion in card balances from this deal, while Goldman Sachs is offloading this amount at a $1 billion discount [2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs anticipates a $2.2 billion provision for credit losses related to the forward purchase commitment for the fourth quarter of 2025 [2] - The partnership between Apple and Goldman Sachs has been under scrutiny for several years, with reports indicating JPMorgan was likely to become Apple's new partner [3] - The Apple Card, launched in 2019, offers features such as no late fees or penalty interest rates, and cashback rewards of up to 3% on purchases from Apple and select partners [3]

Core Insights - The domestic GDP growth for FY26 is expected to exceed the current estimate by the National Statistical Office (NSO) once the new base year is released, according to a report by the State Bank of India (SBI) [1] GDP Growth Estimates - The NSO's first advance estimate projects GDP growth at 7.4% for FY26, up from 6.5% in FY25, with Gross Value Added (GVA) growth at 7.3% and nominal GDP growth at 8% [2] - SBI anticipates GDP growth for FY26 could be around 7.5%, particularly with the base year revision to 2022-23 [2] Future Revisions - The second advance estimates, which will include additional data and revisions, are set to be released on February 27, 2026, and are expected to reflect changes following the base revision [3] - Historically, the difference between GDP growth estimates from the Reserve Bank of India and the NSO has been around 20-30 basis points, making the 7.4% estimate for FY26 reasonable [3] Per Capita National Income - The growth momentum is projected to positively impact per capita national income, which is expected to increase by ₹16,025 annually, reaching ₹2,47,487 in FY26 [3] Sectoral Growth Projections - Agriculture and allied activities are projected to grow by 3.1% in FY26, down from 4.6% in the previous year [4] - The services sector is expected to be the main growth driver, with an estimated growth of 9.1% in FY26, compared to 7.2% last year [4] - The industry sector is projected to grow by 6.0% in FY26, slightly higher than the 5.9% growth recorded last year, supported by robust manufacturing growth of 7.0% [5] - Mining is expected to decelerate by 0.7% in FY26, contrasting with a growth of 2.7% in FY25 [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the financial sector, particularly the liquidity conditions and monetary policy in 2025 and early 2026. Core Insights and Arguments - **Liquidity Conditions in 2025**: The liquidity environment is characterized by a tightening in the first quarter followed by a loosening in the subsequent quarters. By the end of Q1, MLF net injection turned positive, indicating a warming trend [1][5]. - **Central Bank Actions**: In May, the central bank implemented a dual rate cut to address external disturbances, and by June, liquidity rates stabilized. From July to November, the overall liquidity remained loose, with DR001 weighted rates fluctuating around 1.31 [1][5][9]. - **Data Classification Changes**: The adjustment in data classification, merging large banks and policy banks into one category and small and medium banks into another, affects the observation of current bond transactions and the net lending capacity of large banks. However, the new indicator system still holds reference value [3][4][6]. - **Agricultural Commercial Banks' Strategy**: These banks are expected to focus on realizing profits rather than extending durations due to regulatory limits and their own duration ceilings. The anticipation of rate cuts may lead to adjustments in their business strategies [7][8]. - **Key Liquidity Events**: Significant liquidity events over the past year include the recovery of MLF net injections at the end of Q1, dual rate cuts in May, and the stabilization of interbank rates despite large maturities of interbank certificates [9]. - **Central Bank's Liquidity Management in H2 2025**: The central bank took measures such as large-scale reverse repos to manage liquidity and mitigate market volatility, especially around tax payment periods and new listings on the Beijing Stock Exchange [10][11]. - **Outlook for Early 2026**: The liquidity outlook for early 2026 is optimistic, with expectations that the central bank will maintain supportive measures to avoid significant tightening as seen in Q1 2025. Seasonal factors are anticipated but can be managed through appropriate central bank interventions [12][13]. - **Regulatory Pressures on Bond Market**: A potential downward trend in bond yields could exert pressure on regulatory frameworks, necessitating careful consideration of tightening measures to avoid adverse impacts on yield stability [14]. - **Impact of Narrowing Interest Rate Corridor**: The narrowing of the interest rate corridor is expected to enhance the transmission of monetary policy, allowing key rates like DR001 to align more closely with policy targets, thus improving policy flexibility [15]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Seasonal Disturbances**: Seasonal factors such as tax payments and new listings are unavoidable but can be mitigated through central bank support and careful monitoring of liquidity between banks and non-banks [13]. - **Cautious Optimism for 2026**: There is a cautiously optimistic outlook for overall liquidity in 2026, contingent on the absence of significant constraints and the stability of bond market yields [16].

Group 1 - World Liberty Financial, backed by the Trump family, is seeking to establish a national trust bank focused on stablecoin operations [1] - The subsidiary WLTC Holdings has filed a "de novo" application for a bank charter to issue and custody USD1, a dollar-backed stablecoin that has over $3.3 billion in circulation [2][3] - The proposed trust bank will offer stablecoin issuance, redemption, and custody services, and plans to allow fee-free conversion between U.S. dollars and USD1 at launch [3] Group 2 - The establishment of national trust banks by cryptocurrency firms marks a significant step in integrating digital assets into the regulated banking system [1] - The OCC currently supervises about 60 national trust banks, with Anchorage Digital being the only digital asset company that holds a national trust bank charter [2] - The trust bank will comply with the recently passed GENIUS Act, which provides a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins [3]

WILMINGTON, Del.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Today, Apple and Chase announced that Chase will become the new issuer of Apple Card, with an expected transition in approximately 24 months. Apple Card users can continue to enjoy the award-winning experience of Apple Card, which includes up to 3 percent unlimited Daily Cash back on every purchase, easy-to-navigate spending tools, Apple Card Family,1 access to a high-yield Savings account,2 and more. Mastercard will remain the payment network for Apple Card,. ...