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Lam Research outlines $135B WFE forecast for 2026 as AI-driven demand accelerates (NASDAQ:LRCX)
Seeking Alpha· 2026-01-29 04:43
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ASML20260128
2026-01-29 02:43
ASML Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: ASML - **Industry**: Semiconductor Equipment Manufacturing Key Financial Metrics - **2024 Full Year Results**: - Net Sales: €32.7 billion - Gross Margin: 52.8% - Net Profit: €9.6 billion - Earnings Per Share: €24.73 - Free Cash Flow: €11 billion - EUV System Sales: €11.6 billion (up 39% YoY) - DPV System Sales: €12 billion (down 6% YoY) [2][5] - **2026 Q1 Guidance**: - Expected Net Sales: $8.2 to $8.9 billion - Gross Margin: 51% to 53% - R&D Expenses: Approximately $1.2 billion [2][6] - **2026 Full Year Guidance**: - Expected Total Revenue: $34 to $39 billion - Gross Margin: 51% to 53% [2][6] Shareholder Returns - **Dividends**: - Mid-term Dividend: $1.60 per share - Planned Annual Dividend for 2025: $7.50 per share (up 17% YoY) [2][7] - **Share Buyback**: - New buyback program: Up to $12 billion, valid until the end of 2028 [2][8] Market Outlook - **Demand Drivers**: - Significant improvement in market outlook driven by data centers and AI-related infrastructure. - Increased demand for advanced logic and DRAM products, leading to growth across the product line. - Customers are accelerating capacity expansion plans to meet strong demand [2][9]. - **Technological Advancements**: - Continuous reduction in EUV technology costs. - Increased capacity for NX E3,800 to support single-exposure EUV technology. - Multi-beam inspection systems (EBME) to be widely used in advanced process nodes [2][9]. Regional Insights - **China Market**: - Accounts for 20% of ASML's sales, applicable across the revenue range. - Key for achieving performance guidance through customer adoption of ASML tools and upgrade business [4][13]. Product Performance - **Sales Breakdown**: - Logic Systems Revenue: €16.1 billion (up 22% YoY) - Memory Systems Revenue: €8.4 billion (down 2% YoY) - Installation Base Management Sales: €8.2 billion (up 26% YoY) [5]. - **EUV and DPV Systems**: - EUV systems are expected to see increased application in DRAM, simplifying processes and enhancing capacity. - Strong demand for both EUV and DPV systems, with expectations of continued growth in DRAM applications [4][14]. Challenges and Considerations - **Capacity and Supply Chain**: - Capacity expansion is gradual and dependent on customer readiness and supply chain coordination. - The ability to meet revenue guidance is contingent on customer acceptance of equipment and timely completion of wafer fab construction [10][16]. - **Market Variables**: - The growth range for 2026 is projected at 4% to 19%, influenced by customer capabilities and ASML's execution [11]. Future Projections - **Long-term Revenue Opportunities**: - Expected revenue opportunities by 2030: $44 to $60 billion, with gross margins projected at 56% to 60% [9][10]. - **Technological Developments**: - Continued focus on enhancing production efficiency through R&D investments and new product introductions [13][17]. Conclusion ASML is positioned for growth driven by strong market demand, technological advancements, and strategic shareholder returns. The company faces challenges related to capacity expansion and supply chain management, but remains optimistic about future revenue opportunities and market dynamics.
ASML:2025 年第四季度初步解读 —— 订单激增预示重大升级周期
2026-01-29 02:42
J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research 28 January 2026 ASML 4Q First take: Order blowout indicates a major upgrade cycle Our Take: 4Q 2025 is the last quarter ASML will report orders and with an order number of €13.2bn which is 88% /93.6% ahead of JPMe/cons. The company is guiding to FY26 sales of €34-30bn which is €36.5bn at the midpoint or up 11.7% YoY which is 3.5% ahead of consensus. Overall the FY26 guidance is positive, but the very robust order intake points to an even stronger FY27 where estimates a ...
ASML ):订单量创纪录达 130 亿欧元,客户加码中期产能规划
2026-01-29 02:42
Flash | 28 Jan 2026 01:49:29 ET │ 12 pages ASML Holding NV (ASML.AS) Record order intake €13bn, customers increasing medium-term capacity plans CITI'S TAKE ASML's final quarter of orders was a record at €13.2bn, comfortably ahead of even the highest buyside expectation, driven by customers' positive reassessment of the medium-term, AI-driven demand. ASML's YE25 backlog of €38.8bn clearly shows orders covering 2026 (c€26-30bn in system sales) and well into 2027. Management see strong growth from both advance ...
未知机构:中信证券前瞻阿斯麦ASML25Q4季报速评营收指引新签订单强劲-20260129
未知机构· 2026-01-29 02:25
【中信证券前瞻】阿斯麦(ASML)25Q4季报速评—营收指引&新签订单强劲 【财务概览】 1)公司当季营收97.2亿欧元(环比+29%),处于此前公司指引92-98亿欧元的上沿,且高于彭博一致预期的95.7 亿欧元。 2)公司当季毛利率52.2%(环比+0.6ppts),高于此前公司指引51%-53%的中值,且高于51.9%的彭博 【中信证券前瞻】阿斯麦(ASML)25Q4季报速评—营收指引&新签订单强劲 【财务概览】 1)公司当季营收97.2亿欧元(环比+29%),处于此前公司指引92-98亿欧元的上沿,且高于彭博一致预期的95.7 亿欧元。 4)业绩指引:(a)公司预计26Q1营收82-89亿欧元,高于81.3亿欧元的彭博一致预期;预计毛利率51%-53%,指 引中值低于52.5%的彭博一致预期。 (b)公司预计2026年营收340-390亿欧元(原指引为2026年营收不会低于2025年),指引中值高于彭博一致预期 的351亿欧元;预计毛利率51%-53%,指引中值低于52.9%的彭博一致预期。 【营收拆分】 1)按两大部门拆分:设备收入76亿欧元(环比+37%),服务收入21亿欧元(环比+9%)。 2) ...
未知机构:国泰海通海外科技ASML业绩会要点短期有产能担忧长期光刻强度提升趋势明确-20260129
未知机构· 2026-01-29 02:05
但#ASML下游两大行业都处在历史级的高景气区间中,2026~2027的需求十分明确。 【国泰海通海外科技】ASML业绩会要点:短期有产能担忧,长期光刻强度提升趋势明确 ASML从盘前+6%至业绩会结束后的-2%,我们认为主要是两个担忧没有得到解决:对中国区指引依旧保守+没有给 出对产能爬坡的solid commitment。 但#ASML下游两大行业都处在历史级的高景气区间中,2026~2027的需求十分明确。 #2026年业绩取决于客户扩产进度、中国区收入 【国泰海通海外科技】ASML业绩会要点:短期有产能担忧,长期光刻强度提升趋势明确 ASML从盘前+6%至业绩会结束后的-2%,我们认为主要是两个担忧没有得到解决:对中国区指引依旧保守+没有给 出对产能爬坡的solid commitment。 #确认EUV光刻强度随节点而提升、长期趋势明确 1Dram方面,市场曾担心从6F2架构转向4F²架构可能导致EUV需求降低;但实际上 4F²结构更复杂,需要更先进的 光刻掩模,会同时增加浸润式 DUV 和 EUV 的光刻强度。 2代工方面,市场层担心N2、A16、A14等节点的EUV强度原地踏步;而ASML确认每一 ...
未知机构:申万机械爱德万长川业绩超预期再次提示ATE重大产业机遇-20260129
未知机构· 2026-01-29 02:05
【申万机械】爱德万、长川业绩超预期,再次提示ATE重大产业机遇! 1)爱德万测试:Q3业绩超预期,上调全年业绩指引 #SoC增速最快,中国市场(含台湾)占61.58%。 25Q3营收2738亿JPY(约124.39亿RMB),同比增长25.51%,净利润787亿JPY(35.76亿RMB),同比增长 51.76%;1)产品结构看:SoC收入1652亿JPY,同比增加522亿JPY(yoy+46 【申万机械】爱德万、长川业绩超预期,再次提示ATE重大产业机遇! 1)爱德万测试:Q3业绩超预期,上调全年业绩指引 3)重视ATE设备产业趋势,当前仍处在上半场。 #上调25年业绩指引,看好26年SoC继续高增。 公司上调全年收入指引至10700亿JPY(原预期9500亿JPY),上修幅度12.63%;由于AI芯片复杂度变高,测试时 长倍数增加,公司预计26年SoC市场85-95亿美金,相较24年41亿美金实现两年翻倍增长; 爱德万业绩已经表明AI带来的测试机需求具备高弹性,全球AI正处在爆发早期阶段,爱德万与泰瑞达估值从20X提 升至70-80X具备底层产业逻辑;国内SoC测试设备市占率不足5%,未来受益于AI行业β ...
Lam Research Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
Yahoo Finance· 2026-01-29 01:00
Archer described the “AI transformation” as pushing industry spending higher, estimating wafer fab equipment (WFE) spending was close to $110 billion in 2025, with an initial view for 2026 WFE at around $135 billion . Both Archer and Bettinger repeatedly emphasized that growth is being constrained by shortages of available clean room space, and they expect WFE and Lam’s business to be “weighted to the second half” of 2026.For the December quarter, Bettinger said revenue reached a quarterly record of $5.34 b ...
Lam Research(LRCX) - 2026 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2026-01-28 23:00
Lam Research (NasdaqGS:LRCX) Q2 2026 Earnings call January 28, 2026 05:00 PM ET Speaker9Good day, and welcome to the Lam Research Corporation December 2025 earnings conference call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on a touch-tone phone. To withdraw your question, pl ...
Lam Research forecasts strong quarterly results on chipmaking tool demand
Reuters· 2026-01-28 22:18
Lam Research forecast third-quarter revenue above Wall Street expectations on Wednesday, as enterprises ramped up orders of its chipmaking tools. ...